July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

We do well on these days when the marine layer is retreating in this manner... the hills create a hole in the clouds over my area early on. We probably had sun for 75% of the day here.

 

Tomorrow we are trying out Lake Tapps.

Never been on Lake Tapps but I have heard it's a nice lake.

[GHweatherChris]

Never been on Lake Tapps but I have heard it's a nice lake.

It is really nice, however it was empty last year to clean up garbage and do maintenance on in flow and out flow areas, really crazy to see such a large area that is a thriving lake be barren. Lots of houses on the market during that time either got sold for dirt cheap or pulled off the market completely.

[TT-SEA]

Being surprised you didn't get much with the flow on Thursday and Friday being what it was is what surprised me about your post.

I do well in almost any flow except strong offshore flow in the winter.

[GHweatherChris]

I do well in almost any flow except strong offshore flow in the winter.

The dynamics with the moisture did what was modeled, never showed you being in line to see much.

[TT-SEA]

It is really nice, however until last year it was empty for about a year to clean up garbage and do maintenance on in flow and out flow areas, really crazy to see such a large area that is a thriving lake be barren. Lots of houses on the market during that time either got sold for dirt cheap or pulled off the market completely.

It was full to the top in 2014... we were there several times. Last year it was low due to lack of mountain snow and then maintenance.

[TT-SEA]

The dynamics with the moisture did what was modeled, never showed you being in line to see much.

WRF showed heavy rain here.

[GHweatherChris]

It was full to the top in 2014... we were there several times. Last year it was low due to lack of mountain snow and then maintenance.

I made my original post more clear.

 

I didnt say it was empty in 2014, it wasn't just low last year either, it was virtually empty and it was on purpose more than lack of snow. I was at several of our customer's homes up there last year and got the real info.

[TT-SEA]

I didnt say it was empty in 2014, it wasn't just low last year either, it was virtually empty and it was on purpose more than lack of snow. I was at at several of ourof our customer's homes up there last year and got the real info.

You said until last year... implying it was low before that. You changed it now.

[GHweatherChris]

You said until last year... implying it was low before that.

See my edit above, you can appreciate edits, your the king of em, lol!!

[Jesse]

Models sure have trended cooler for next week and beyond.

 

[Phil]

Models sure have trended cooler for next week and beyond.

 

image.png

Starting to look like both 7/30 and 7/31 could finish below average west of the cascades. That "crash" keeps moving closer in time.

 

I definitely wasn't expecting such a rapid transition. I've been burned all summer underestimating the Niña background.

[TT-SEA]

Starting to look like both 7/30 and 7/31 could finish below average west of the cascades. That "crash" keeps moving closer in time.

 

I definitely wasn't expecting such a rapid transition. I've been burned all summer underestimating the Niña background.

 

 

Well Phil... the 12Z ECMWF was farther north with the trough next weekend compared to the 12Z run yesterday.

 

It also shows SEA close to 90 on 7/30... so does the WRF.    That is 13 degrees warmer than normal on the high at SEA.  

 

Saturday morning... this not a below normal day in any way. 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-wwcyo3.png

 

Sunday (7/31) might be close to normal.  Although the pattern shown now would end up pretty sunny along the I-5 corridor that day.  

[TT-SEA]

850mb temps next Saturday afternoon per the 18Z GFS.     Its a warm day.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_ht/gfs_namer_174_850_temp_ht.gif

[Jesse]

Today should end up -2.5 at PDX, after a -4.5 yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Also... there are literally no examples of prolonged heat in our area in any analog year in JAS. How could it be surprising that any heat would pass quickly?

[GHweatherChris]

Also... there are literally no examples of prolonged heat in our area in any analog year in JAS. How could it be surprising that any heat would pass quickly?

Who are you talking to?? Phil??

 

If so, time to take it to PM.

[Phil]

Well Phil... the 12Z ECMWF was farther north with the trough next weekend compared to the 12Z run yesterday.

 

It also shows SEA close to 90 on 7/30... so does the WRF. That is 13 degrees warmer than normal on the high at SEA.

 

Saturday morning... this not a below normal day in any way.

 

Sunday (7/31) might be close to normal. Although the pattern shown now would end up pretty sunny along the I-5 corridor that day.

The 12z ECMWF is sort of an outlier, though, both relative to its own ensemble mean and the GEFS/GGEM ensembles. I suspect it'll trend faster w/ its 00z run tonight.

 

The trend across guidance is highly suggestive, IMO, that the "crash" will wind up occuring on 7/30.

[GHweatherChris]

The 12z ECMWF is sort of an outlier, though, both relative to its own ensemble mean and the GEFS/GGEM ensembles. I suspect it'll trend faster w/ its 00z run tonight.

 

The trend across guidance is highly suggestive, IMO, that the "crash" will wind up occuring on 7/30.

If the crash starts late in the day, it will still be a hot day overall.

[TT-SEA]

If the crash starts late in the day, it will still be a hot day overall.

 

 

Very much... even the ECMWF ensemble mean has 850mb temps close to 20C next Saturday.  

 

The ECMWF also trended much farther north and east with the trough next weekend when comparing to its 12ZZ run yesterday.    

[Phil]

If the crash starts late in the day, it will still be a hot day overall.

Yeah, when exactly will push arrives on 7/30 will be important in determining the daily high. If it occurs closer to 12z, that's going to have a different effect versus an arrival after 18z.

 

I think it'll trend faster with time, given the trend(s) across guidance since 00z Friday.

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah, when exactly will push arrives on 7/30 will be important in determining the daily high. If it occurs closer to 12z, that's going to have a different effect versus an arrival after 18z.

 

I think it'll trend faster with time.

In the summer, I would bet on the push happening late in the afternoon here.

 

Plus the fact you are not having much success lately.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, when exactly will push arrives on 7/30 will be important in determining the daily high. If it occurs closer to 12z, that's going to have a different effect versus an arrival after 18z.

 

I think it'll trend faster with time.

 

 

Trending the other way right now.   It was trending faster and now slower.

 

The 12Z GFS, 18Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, and the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean all have 850mb temps in close to 20C next Saturday.

 

Warm day on every model.

[Phil]

Very much... even the ECMWF ensemble mean has 850mb temps close to 20C next Saturday.

 

The ECMWF also trended much farther north and east with the trough next weekend when comparing to its 12ZZ run yesterday.

I wouldn't call random run-to-run fluctuations "trends". A trend is consistent tendency over multiple model runs, underneath the ups and downs.

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't call random run-to-run fluctuations "trends". A trend is consistent tendency over multiple model runs, underneath the ups and downs.

 

 

OK.   We will see.

 

Certainly been sort of a theme this year to bring troughiness in faster.   Not seeing it yet.

 

Don't you have better things to do than convince people 3,000 miles away that it will always be cold?   Even when we are going to be 2/3rds of the way through meteorological summer next week and still be above normal.  

[Phil]

Trending the other way right now. It was trending faster and now slower.

 

The 12Z GFS, 18Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, and the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean all have 850mb temps in close to 20C next Saturday.

 

Warm day on every model.

Timing has been moving up in the modeling aggregate. The CMC/ens, GFS/ens, EPS mean, and NAEFS have all been trending faster with "crash" over multiple run cycles, blips and bumps aside.

[Phil]

Don't you have better things to do than convince people 3,000 miles away that it will always be cold? Even when we are going to be 2/3rds of the way through meteorological summer next week and still be above normal.

We're sort of lounging around the house tonight, so nope. Might go for a midnight swim later, assuming the water hasn't boiled away already.

 

Enjoy your journey to a [slightly] cooler than average J/A/S.

[TT-SEA]

We're sort of lounging around the house tonight, so nope. Might go for a midnight swim later, assuming the water hasn't boiled away already.

 

Enjoy your journey to a [slightly] cooler than average J/A/S.

 

 

We won't be here for almost half of August.   After that much time in the heat and humidity of Minnesota... I am sure it will be nice to come back to more reasonable weather.

 

Also... SEA was +2.6 for June and will probably end up better than +1.5 for July.    They will need to finish August at -4.2 to end up just average for JJA (weighting each month equally).  Almost a lock to have an above normal summer here.  

 

For JAS... either August or September will likely be above normal.   So JAS is likely to end up above normal as well with a +1.5 or better for the first month.  

[ShawniganLake]

I think the marine push happens at 5:27pm next Saturday. What does everyone else think?

[TT-SEA]

Lots of yardwork today... everything looks great including the garden.    Started watering tonight though.    My wife said this afternoon that this is her favorite summer in our 12 years living here. 

[Jesse]

I think the marine push happens at 5:27pm next Saturday. What does everyone else think?

Victoria will end up +18 for that day regardless of when.

[GHweatherChris]

We're sort of lounging around the house tonight, so nope. Might go for a midnight swim later, assuming the water hasn't boiled away already.

 

Enjoy your journey to a [slightly] cooler than average J/A/S.

It is not even hot here you are right now. Temps in the 70's tonight????????

[GHweatherChris]

Lots of yardwork today... everything looks great including the garden. Started watering tonight though. My wife said this afternoon that this is her favorite summer in our 12 years living here.

I find it hard to believe that kind of thing comes from your wife without some encouragement from you......

[TT-SEA]

All without watering much this summer... even the tomatoes are huge.  

 

 

[Phil]

We won't be here for almost half of August. After that much time in the heat and humidity of Minnesota... I am sure it will be nice to come back to more reasonable weather.

 

Also... SEA was +2.6 for June and will probably end up better than +1.5 for July. They will need to finish August at -4.2 to end up just average for JJA (weighting each month equally). Almost a lock to have an above normal summer here.

 

For JAS... either August or September will likely be above normal. So JAS is likely to end up above normal as well with a +1.5 or better for the first month.

I forecasted an above average J/J/A regionwide, so nothing surprising there. I thought June & the first half of July would run warmer than average, so if anything, the troughing has been more frequent than I anticipated.

 

I targeted J/A/S for a slightly cooler than average anomaly over the majority of the region. I stand by that, as firmly as ever.

[TT-SEA]

I find it hard to believe that kind of thing comes from your wife without some encouragement from you......

 

 

Not even close... she came to dislike really hot weather last summer.      She has made similar comments before.    This summer has been a perfect balance of everything.   Last year was great for water sports but our landscaping suffered badly. This year we have been able to do lots of water activities and the yard looks great without much effort.    No fires or smoke either.

[TT-SEA]

Well, I forecasted an above average J/J/A regionwide, so nothing surprising there. I thought June & the first half of July would run warmer than average, so if anything, the troughing has been more frequent than I anticipated.

 

I targeted J/A/S for a slightly cooler than average anomaly over the majority of the region. I stand by that, as firmly as ever.

 

I think the fact that it came much earlier favors a more mild later summer and early fall.   1988 is a great example even though you threw it out now.   Even August 1983 was the best month that summer.  

[Phil]

BTW, hope you enjoy your vacation, Tim. I'm leaving town August 7th myself. Anywhere I go will probably have nicer weather than here.

 

Still 90/75 @ 11pm.

[GHweatherChris]

BTW, hope you enjoy your vacation, Tim. I'm leaving town August 7th myself. Anywhere I go will probably have nicer weather than here.

 

Still 90/75 @ 11pm.

Did you move again?

 

If so where to?

[Phil]

I think the fact that it came much earlier favors a more mild later summer and early fall. 1988 is a great example even though you threw it out now. Even August 1983 was the best month that summer.

Well, I don't think it actually "came earlier". From my perspective, it appears the background forcing state has oriented itself in such a manner to promote almost excessive NPAC height rises, which shows no signs of abating anytime soon.

 

I wouldn't even a call this a typical La Niña regime, in the sense that the IO/Eastern Hemispheric cells are flat, and the HC there is contracted, relatively speaking, reflected via the -IOD. Don't get years like this one very often.

[Phil]

Did you move again?

 

If so where to?

Not moving, leaving for a vacation. Heading to coastal Georgia, then Florida.