July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

It's a record of the past, but the past itself doesn't exist, nor does the future. Time is merely a man-made construct.

 

You can theoretically do something in the future that affects something you did in the past. #mindfuck

How do I make it so the arguments you and Tim have been having doesn't happen?

[Phil]

How do I make it so the arguments you and Tim have been having doesn't happen?

Ignore function?

[stuffradio]

Ignore function?

That's too easy though. It doesn't solve the underlying issues.

[Geos]

Enough with cluttering up the thread guys. Some of the posts today could have been taken care of through private messages.

 

Hottest day on the GFS through the end of the month.

 

 

 I think 67° was the warmest it got here today. Had a little sun late in the day.

[TT-SEA]

Enough with cluttering up the thread guys. Some of the posts today could have been taken care of through private messages.

 

Hottest day on the GFS through the end of the month.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016072300/gfs_T2m_nwus_29.png

 

I think 67° was the warmest it got here today. Had a little sun late in the day.

We were in Issaquah Highlands this evening... sun did peak out and the reliable car thermometer showed 71.

[ShawniganLake]

It'll be close, the W/NW wind is still blowing strong. The down sloping winds from that direction tend to keep things warm. We'd cool down quickly if it becomes a southerly wind but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

Looks like they officially ended up with 77/62 at the airport.

[Geos]

We were in Issaquah Highlands this evening... sun did peak out and the reliable car thermometer showed 71.

 

That's pretty close to here. Been looking at the Demery Hill sensor on wundergound, and it seems to run slightly cool to surrounding locations, so maybe it was slightly warmer. Definitely seeing the warmer readings near the lake in the evening.

[snow_wizard]

850s never even get to 20C over Seattle on the 0z ECMWF.  Looking very likely the month ends with strong high pressure over the GOA and coolish NW flow.

[Timmy Supercell]

Wunderground showing 99 on 07/29 for me. That will likely be the hottest day of this year (based on poor reputation of 100+ degree occurrences in Klamath Falls - last one was in 2013).

 

And I noticed their 10-day is void of thunder, and it's mid-summer. That's a first.

[Jesse]

Tuesday is looking like it could be another below average day with a thicker marine layer, at least down here.

 

Heat wave is looking shorter and less impressive all the time, too.

[ShawniganLake]

Tuesday is looking like it could be another below average day with a thicker marine layer, at least down here.

 

Heat wave is looking shorter and less impressive all the time, too.

Definitely looks like the heat gets cut off pretty quickly next weekend. 

 

Very mild start to the day up here again.  +5 to 8 on the lows.  Another 60F low at Victoria. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It looks like we're getting near the peak in summer temperatures over the Strait of Georgia. Offshore temperatures are also running relatively high.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/washngtn.fc.gif

[Jesse]

Definitely looks like the heat gets cut off pretty quickly next weekend.

 

Very mild start to the day up here again. +5 to 8 on the lows. Another 60F low at Victoria.

Makes sense considering the warm pattern we've been in.

[TT-SEA]

WRF shows its still quite warm next Saturday at the end of its run... upper 80s at SEA and PDX.

 

Based on historical data for our analog years... prolonged heat and extreme heat will be very unlikely the rest of the summer and into fall.   

[Jesse]

About 90% of the PNW still running below average for the month:

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is nice.

[MossMan]

I think both August and September will run at least slightly above normal temp wise for the Northwest. The map that Jesse posted shows my area and north running a bit above normal for July as well.

[TT-SEA]

I think both August and September will run at least slightly above normal temp wise for the Northwest. The map that Jesse posted shows my area and north running a bit above normal for July as well.

Western WA will look pretty warm on that map when the final numbers are in for July.

 

You might be right about August and September.

[Phil]

August is going to surprise a lot of folks. Will run cooler than July, relative to average.

 

Not sure about September. Need to see what the IO does over the next 2-3 weeks, but there's a chance for a 1-2 week warm spell that month.

[Phil]

Walker/Hadley ratios go into an amplified La Niña state during early/mid August, reflected via the huge swath of subsidence depicted between 150E and 120W.

 

July managed to run largely -PNA/-AAM without EPAC/WHEM cooperation. We'll finally have that going into August.

[TT-SEA]

August is going to surprise a lot of folks. Will run cooler than July, relative to average.

 

Not sure about September. Need to see what the IO does over the next 2-3 weeks, but there's a chance for a 1-2 week warm spell that month.

Timing will be off again. And I bet the Puget Sound area is above normal again as well.

[Phil]

Timing will be off again. And I bet the Puget Sound area is above normal again as well.

Puget Sound hotspot notwithstanding, there has never been a developing Niña August w/ a neg W/H ratio that averaged warmer than normal in the PNW, and there's no reason to suspect this year is unique. This goes back to the 1950s, so we have 15+ years to reference here.

 

You'd better have solid foundational reasoning to bet against 50+ years of history.

[TT-SEA]

Puget Sound hotspot aside, the region as a whole is a probably safe bet to run cooler than normal overall. There has never been a developing Niña August w/ a neg W/H ratio that averaged warmer than normal in the PNW, and there's no reason to suspect this year is unique.

Status quo then... we will enjoy a warmer than average August and entire summer while the inland PNW is cooler than normal.

 

I was also thinking that being cooler than normal over there probably reduces the onshore flow here and helps to make it warmer than normal on our side.

 

Probably what I was and am seeing in historical records in these types of years. It makes sense.

 

So let's see some more purples for that huge area of the PNW. While we are enjoying the results over here and will end up with a solidly warm JAS where it matters most... home.

[Phil]

Appears the 11-16 day bias corrected GEFS is catching on. Looks similar to the EPS now.

 

[TT-SEA]

August will have to be really cold here to avoid a warmer than normal summer in the Puget Sound region. We will have the first 2 of 3 months solidly above normal by the end of July.

[Phil]

Actually, looking at every La Niña August since 1950, all of the years with +W/H ratios were warmer than average in the lowland PNW, while all of those with -W/H ratios were cooler than average. If that isn't a foundational teleconnector, I don't know what is. Just discovered this today.

[Phil]

However, the correlation breaks down in September w/ wavelength changes and shifting cell climatology. In September, the IO/WPAC - to - EPAC convective gradient appears to be more influential, statistically speaking.

[TT-SEA]

Phil... any thoughts on my post before your GEFS map post?

 

Make sense. In the summer... the colder the inland PNW is the warmer it is in the Puget Sound region with reduced onshore flow. Explains why we both have been right.

[Phil]

Phil... any thoughts on my post before your GEFS map post?

 

Make sense... in the summer the colder the PNW is the warmer it is in the Puget Sound region with reduced onshore flow. Explains why we both have been right.

Sorry, didn't see it. Will take a look.

[Phil]

Status quo then... we will enjoy a warmer than average August and entire summer while the inland PNW is cooler than normal.

 

I was also thinking that being cooler than normal over there probably reduces the onshore flow here and helps to make it warmer than normal on our side.

 

Probably what I was and am seeing in historical records in these types of years. It makes sense.

 

So let's see some more purples for that huge area of the PNW. While we are enjoying the results over here and will end up with a solidly warm JAS where it matters most... home.

Well, I don't know much of anything about the microclimatic tendencies out there, and I don't think I'll ever fully understand them without living there. I just look at the big picture and formulate an idea based on large scale drivers and pattern progression. Usually it works out, sometimes mesoscale and/or microclimatic tendencies get in the way.

 

I know that differential heating can be very influential in regards to circulation within the lower boundary layer(s). Sea breezes are one example. It's an interesting theory, but I don't know enough about your climate to formulate an opinion on it. Maybe the warm SSTs can alter the low level thermal gradient(s) enough to impact circulation/marine push vigor there on a local scale. I don't really know.

 

Sorry if I'm not much of a help, but I can't give opinions on something I don't adequately understand.

[TT-SEA]

Well, I don't know much of anything about the microclimatic tendencies out there, and I don't think I'll ever fully understand them without living there. I just look at the big picture and formulate an idea based on large scale drivers and pattern progression. Usually it works, sometimes mesoscale/microclimatic stuff gets in the way.

 

I know that differential heating can be very influential in regards to circulation within the lower boundary layer(s). Sea breezes are one example. It's an interesting theory, but I don't know enough about your climate to formulate an opinion on it. Maybe the warm SSTs can alter the low level thermal gradient(s) enough to impact circulation/marine push vigor there on a local scale. I don't really know.

 

Sorry if I'm not much of a help, but I can't give opinions on something I don't adequately understand.

 

Probably a combination of things... but in general with less heat inland, the onshore flow will be weaker over here. So colder over there is better for us... and them as well.

 

Also the warm SSTs could be playing a role... a little bit here and probably more with the warmer areas in NW OR and SW WA.

 

Also... pattern favors more sunshine here which might be related in part to weaker onshore flow.

 

So the big picture cold across the PNW is probably in part aiding the above normal temps in the Puget Sound region.

 

This will likely be the case in August as well based on what you are saying (maybe with some timing differences). I don't think the warmth in our area here is just an accident or by chance. I think this what I was seeing all along when looking at the historical data.

 

Best of both worlds this summer.

[TT-SEA]

The coolest summers here are probably with warmer 850mb temps and a little more ridging.   Very hot east of the mountains and lots of solid marine layer over here.

 

Or also years like 1993 with lots of rain.  

[Front Ranger]

August will have to be really cold here to avoid a warmer than normal summer in the Puget Sound region. We will have the first 2 of 3 months solidly above normal by the end of July.

 

Depends on where you're talking about. Probably not for OLM or McChord, for starters.

[Front Ranger]

SEA actually put up a -1 yesterday. No mention from Tim, oddly. 

 

-4 at Seattle WFO, which is actually a better barometer of Seattle proper.

[Phil]

Probably a combination of things... but in general with less heat inland, the onshore flow will be weaker over here. So colder over there is better for us... and them as well.

 

Also the warm SSTs could be playing a role... a little bit here and probably more with the warmer areas in NW OR and SW WA.

 

Also... pattern favors more sunshine here which might be related in part to weaker onshore flow.

 

So the big picture cold across the PNW is probably in part aiding the above normal temps in the Puget Sound region.

 

This will likely be the case in August as well based on what you are saying (maybe with some timing differences). I don't think the warmth in our area here is just an accident or by chance. I think this what I was seeing all along when looking at the historical data.

 

Best of both worlds this summer.

Well there are probably multiple reasons for the inland areas running colder (normalized) anomalies relative to areas near the coast, and I wouldn't assume that tendency will continue, because it probably won't. The nature of the pattern alone in August will not emulate that of July, especially in the WHEM.

 

Remember that inland areas will always run more significant anomalies, hence the need perform a normalization of the said anomalies to account for your standard deviations in the given circumstance. It so happens that even the normalized anomalies were great inland in July, but that might not hold true in August.

[ShawniganLake]

SEA actually put up a -1 yesterday. No mention from Tim, oddly.

 

-4 at Seattle WFO, which is actually a better barometer of Seattle proper.

I am pretty sure he mentioned the -1.

[TT-SEA]

SEA actually put up a -1 yesterday. No mention from Tim, oddly. 

 

 

 

 

SEA stole a -1 departure today. No hourly above 69 and a high of 73

 

 

Really Jared??

[Phil]

Take note of 8/83 and 8/95, for example. The nature of the pattern/streamflow in those years precluded warm lowland temperature anomalies, despite relatively warm SSTAs and weaker Niña/AAM backgrounds. The exact nature of the large scale streamflow is absolutely crucial, and it's extremely difficult to pin down even weeks in advance, let alone months in advance.

 

So, any claims regarding "accurate predictions" of such specific tendencies, from months in advance, are silly.

[TT-SEA]

Well there are probably multiple reasons for the inland areas running colder (normalized) anomalies relative to areas near the coast, and I wouldn't assume that tendency will continue, because it probably won't. The nature of the pattern alone in August will not emulate that of July, especially in the WHEM.

 

Remember that inland areas will always run more significant anomalies, hence the need perform a normalization of the said anomalies to account for your standard deviations in the given circumstance. It so happens that even the normalized anomalies were great inland in July, but that might not hold true in August.

 

 

Very likely to continue in August in the Puget Sound region.  

[TT-SEA]

Take note of 8/83 and 8/95, for example. The nature of the pattern/streamflow in those years precluded warm lowland temperature anomalies, despite relatively warm SSTAs and weaker Niña/AAM backgrounds. The exact nature of the large scale streamflow is absolutely crucial, and it's extremely difficult to pin down even weeks in advance, let alone months in advance.

 

 

9/95 was hot.