July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF much more robust with trough Sunday... but passes quickly and warms up quickly again.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro is pretty dynamic for late July/early August.

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF much more robust with trough Sunday... but passes quickly and warms up quickly again.

 

If it's correct with the evolution to 240 hours...then it's clearly setting up for another crash/trough shortly.

[Jesse]

12z Euro really beefs up the weekend trough. Likely next Sunday would be below average for many locations if this run verified.

 

Nice pattern after that. Could be another trough getting ready to drop in at day 10.

[snow_wizard]

12z Euro really beefs up the weekend trough. Likely next Sunday would be below average for many locations if this run verified.

 

Nice pattern after that. Could be another trough getting ready to drop in at day 10.

 

Indeed.  Pretty potent trough for the very end of July depicted on the ECMWF.  Could be rain on the 31st which is statistically the rarest day for rain here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks great for next week as well.   A couple of  ULLs way north and warm here.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-TnaRra.png

[Jesse]

Indeed. Pretty potent trough for the very end of July depicted on the ECMWF. Could be rain on the 31st which is statistically the rarest day for rain here.

I don't know about up there (SEA at least), but down here Tuesday could end up a bonus below average day this week with a thicker marine layer.

 

Considering that and the speeding up/deepening of the trough next weekend, PDX's negative anomaly for July just may survive the next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bend is just a mess. 

[Jesse]

Bend is just a mess.

If you are referring to the ridiculous amount of development that has been going on down there, then I agree.

 

Luckily the Cascade Lakes are miles away from all of that.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice and warm today. 76F at noon here. Might see a sea breeze keep things in check this afternoon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you are referring to the ridiculous amount of development that has been going on down there, then I agree.

 

Luckily the Cascade Lakes are miles away from all of that.

 

That is true and I was. Beautiful area, but Bend is a tourist trap and the urban planning has been a disaster. 

[Jesse]

That is true and I was. Beautiful area, but Bend is a tourist trap and the urban planning has been a disaster.

It's being overrun by yuppies and sprawl is a huge issue. Hopefully they figure something out eventually.

 

Sad to see the land around there getting eaten up so fast.

[Front Ranger]

Comparing summer 2015 to summer 2016 so far...temp anomalies at your fav station aside, there's been a marked difference in the amount of clouds.

 

At SEA. 0-3 means the day averaged 0-30% cloud cover in the sky, 4-7 means the day averaged 40-70% cloud cover, and you can guess what 8-10 means.

 

2015

 

CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 16

PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 31

CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 6

 

2016

 

CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 4

PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 37
CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 12

 

At PDX.

 

2015

 

CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 26

PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 22
CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 5

 

2016

 

CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 10

PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 32
CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 11

 

Essentially, summer 2016 has been about 40% cloudier than summer 2015 to this point.

[James Jones]

Comparing summer 2015 to summer 2016 so far...temp anomalies at your fav station aside, there's been a marked difference in the amount of clouds.

 

At SEA. 0-3 means the day averaged 0-30% cloud cover in the sky, 4-7 means the day averaged 40-70% cloud cover, and you can guess what 8-10 means.

 

Essentially, summer 2016 has been about 40% cloudier than summer 2015 to this point.

Yep. Those of us who actually live here have noticed. 

 

Are there reliable averages for sky conditions at these stations? It'd be interesting to see how much this deviates from normal.

[snow_wizard]

It's being overrun by yuppies and sprawl is a huge issue. Hopefully they figure something out eventually.

 

Sad to see the land around there getting eaten up so fast.

 

Yuppies sure ruin everything.  The town of Kirkland has been destroyed by them. It has no character whatsoever compared to what it used to be.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS continues the idea of a big crash to end the month.  The ridge axis returns to the center of the country for early august.

[DareDuck]

Nice morning.

 

We were in the Cascade Lakes area west of Bend most of yesterday, and the weather could not have been more perfect for hiking and swimming.

Where? I hiked around Todd Lake and did some SUP on Devils Lake yesterday.

 

Edit: just saw your picture, looks like Sparks?

[DareDuck]

Bend is just a mess.

I love it here, but when we buy our own place it will be well outside of town.

[MossMan]

A beautiful day...low 80's, wall to wall sunshine...perfection.

[Jesse]

Where? I hiked around Todd Lake and did some SUP on Devils Lake yesterday.

 

Edit: just saw your picture, looks like Sparks?

Oh wow. Good chance we crossed paths.

 

We spent much of the day at Sparks, but also did a hike near Lava and Little Lava lakes.

[TT-SEA]

Lake Tapps was awesome today.   Water was between 76 and 78 degrees... air temp in the 80s.   Perfect day for swimming off the boat and waterskiing... and docking at the Lake Tapps Golf Course for a wonderful dinner with the best view possible.  And they have incredible food and its inexpensive.   

 

 

 

Quite the party out there...

 

[TT-SEA]

Yuppies sure ruin everything.  The town of Kirkland has been destroyed by them. It has no character whatsoever compared to what it used to be.

 

 

Kirkland is wonderful.   So many parks along the waterfront... we were there last Sunday for a wine festival.    Gorgeous setting... full of character.    Stop living in the past and embrace the new.   Lots of culture there.  

[Jesse]

Seems the models keep trending weaker with the warm up and stronger with the trough following it.

[Phil]

Seems the models keep trending weaker with the warm up and stronger with the weekend trough.

Typical model behavior in a La Niña background. Watch that weekend trough continue to trend quicker until it's arriving on the evening of 7/29.

[GobBluth]

Typical model behavior in a La Niña background. Watch that weekend trough continue to trend quicker until it's arriving on the evening of 7/29.

New gfs goes there.

[TT-SEA]

Typical model behavior in a La Niña background. Watch that weekend trough continue to trend quicker until it's arriving on the evening of 7/29.

Certainly been the case this year.

[snow_wizard]

Very impressive 0z GFS run.  Very sharp troughing from this weekend onward.  Could we see our first cool August in 15 years this year?  We shall see.

[snow_wizard]

Come on guys keep it related to weather. Take this discussion to another thread. The only thing I have to add is that I live in an outer suburb of PDX and the yuppies and rednecks get along just fine.

 

You have got to be kidding.  Two non weather related posts and you're getting on us.  Where were you during football season....

[MossMan]

You have got to be kidding. Two non weather related posts and you're getting on us. Where were you during football season....

Seahawks first pre-season game just a couple of weeks away!!

[Jesse]

Very impressive 0z GFS run.  Very sharp troughing from this weekend onward.  Could we see our first cool August in 15 years this year?  We shall see.

 

Almost seems impossible these days, but boy would that be nice.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the WRF still shows sunshine all day on Saturday with a high getting close to 80 in Seattle.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW... the WRF still shows sunshine all day on Saturday with a high getting close to 80 in Seattle.

 

The timing will be pretty tricky for the big cool down.  Too soon to tell yet.

[Front Ranger]

Very impressive 0z GFS run. Very sharp troughing from this weekend onward. Could we see our first cool August in 15 years this year? We shall see.

There have been a couple since then that were slightly below normal for the region, but 2000 was the last notably cool August. And that was the coolest August in a long time.

[snow_wizard]

Almost seems impossible these days, but boy would that be nice.

 

I think the incessant string of warm Augusts is probably related to the incessant string of unimpressive Januaries.  We need to give the whole thing a big kick in the arse.  The past couple of years (as loathsome as they were) may have done that.

[TT-SEA]

The timing will be pretty tricky for the big cool down.  Too soon to tell yet.

 

 

Its going to cool down for the weekend... no question now.

 

WRF also shows Sunday being sunny across the region with highs in the mid to upper 70s.   

 

Right now it looks like a pleasant cool down without being socked in with low clouds.   Probably thanks again to cooler 850mb temps.  

[snow_wizard]

There have been a couple since then that were slightly below normal for the region, but 2000 was the last notably cool August. And that was the coolest August in a long time.

 

SEA hasn't had an August below 65 since 2000 or 2001.  The pre 21st century normal for August was actually below 65.

[Front Ranger]

SEA hasn't had an August below 65 since 2000 or 2001. The pre 21st century normal for August was actually below 65.

Yup...that's SEA.

[Geos]

The wall to wall sunshine was great today. Didn't see any clouds until sunset and those were only high clouds on the western horizon.

 

[TT-SEA]

Yup...that's SEA.

 

 

The Seattle area is more pleasant than it used to be... that probably will not change.   Actually it will likely continue slowly upward overall.    With a few steps down from time to time.

 

Of course there were some incredible summers and winters here in the late 1800s and early 1900s.   That was a nice era.

[Phil]

I think the incessant string of warm Augusts is probably related to the incessant string of unimpressive Januaries. We need to give the whole thing a big kick in the arse. The past couple of years (as loathsome as they were) may have done that.

It's early, but the trends over the last 4-6 months suggest (to me) this might be a very good winter for you guys. I'm not ready to call for it yet, but I'm almost ready to.