July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Well, I don't think it actually "came earlier". From my perspective, it appears the background forcing state has oriented itself in such a manner to promote almost excessive NPAC height rises, which shows no signs of abating anytime soon.

 

I wouldn't even a call this a typical La Niña regime, in the sense that the IO/Eastern Hemispheric cells are flat, and the HC there is contracted, relatively speaking, reflected via the -IOD. Don't get years like this one very often.

Locked in early like 1988. Another perfect summer.

[GHweatherChris]

Not moving, leaving for a vacation. Heading to coastal Georgia, then Florida.

For clarification please, where do you live, as in city?

[ShawniganLake]

Victoria will end up +18 for that day regardless of when.

At least. Could be more if the west wind burst is timed perfectly.

[TT-SEA]

For clarification please, where do you live, as in city?

Just east of the beltway... to the northwest of DC. By Booze Creek.

[GHweatherChris]

Just east of the beltway... to the northwest of DC. By Booze Creek.

Absolutely no help.

[Phil]

Locked in early like 1988. Another perfect summer.

I think that's the problem, though, because 1988 coupled in early/mid Spring, so the IO was raging by July, and a coherent wave-1 tropical convective signature persisted through the remainder of the summer/autumn.

 

Here, we don't have the full coupling/wave-1 signature. We're sort of on the cusp with a wave-2 signature, lacking longitudinal agreement as reflected in the IO.

 

For August, the years 1980, 1983, and 1995 are the best overall matches I can find.

[Phil]

For clarification please, where do you live, as in city?

I live in Bethesda, MD, or more specifically Cabin John/Glen Echo, just above the Potomac River inside the Beltway.

 

Beautiful area, but super expensive, and much too humid,

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely no help.

Google maps.

[GHweatherChris]

It's listed on my profile too. Lol.

Temps around you are in the mid 70's to low 80's, sounds nice.

[TT-SEA]

Temps around you are in the mid 70's to low 80's, sounds nice.

 

 

It was 88 at DCA last hour.   Sort of ugly for the middle of the night.

 

98 tomorrow and 100 on Monday.

[Phil]

It was 88 at DCA last hour. Sort of ugly for the middle of the night.

 

98 tomorrow and 100 on Monday.

Yup, 5min updates @ DCA..sitting at 90 beyond 11pm: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?wfo=fgz&sid=KDCA&num=72

 

As for my area, it's a summer nightmare because we're surrounded by water on three sides, have mature woodland everywhere, yet sit on a small ridge above the river valley, so we don't decouple well. You can travel one mile and watch temperatures drop by 10+ degrees sometimes.

[Front Ranger]

We won't be here for almost half of August.   After that much time in the heat and humidity of Minnesota... I am sure it will be nice to come back to more reasonable weather.

 

Also... SEA was +2.6 for June and will probably end up better than +1.5 for July.    They will need to finish August at -4.2 to end up just average for JJA (weighting each month equally).  Almost a lock to have an above normal summer here.  

 

For JAS... either August or September will likely be above normal.   So JAS is likely to end up above normal as well with a +1.5 or better for the first month.  

 

Again...the anomalies at SEA are not a good way to evaluate how warm/not warm this summer has been/will be.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is a little quicker with the trough unto BC next Saturday. Also looks weaker.

[TT-SEA]

Again...the anomalies at SEA are not a good way to evaluate how warm/not warm this summer has been/will be.

I will use number of below normal days at SEA then.

 

Not many.

 

Should be 18 or 19 out of 61 so far by the end of July.

[TT-SEA]

Very quick trough passage through BC on the 00Z GFS next weekend... warming up again by Monday.  

 

850mb temp gets down to around 15C on Sunday afternoon.  

[Phil]

Very quick trough passage through BC on the 00Z GFS next weekend... warming up again by Monday.

 

850mb temp gets down to around 15C on Sunday afternoon.

Another trough moving in beyond d10.

[Front Ranger]

I will use number of below normal days at SEA then.

 

Not many.

 

Should be 18 or 19 out of 61 so far by the end of July.

 

How is that better? You're still using a station that consistently ends up with less below normal days than most the region. SEA is simply not an accurate proxy when it comes to anomalies.

[TT-SEA]

Another trough moving in beyond d10.

 

 

Not much... but not ridging either.   850mb temps around 15C.   

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_231_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

How is that better? You're still using a station that consistently ends up with less below normal days than most the region. SEA is simply not an accurate proxy when it comes to anomalies.

 

 

I am sure WFO SEA is about the same.   The Seattle area is how I judge summer.  

[Front Ranger]

Landsburg, for example, is running -.3 for the month compared to their long term 1916-2016 average.

[Phil]

Funny looking run, wants to build heights under equatorward EFs but the anticyclonic breaker sort of blocks things up. Probably not going to verify.

[TT-SEA]

Landsburg, for example, is running -.3 for the month compared to their long term 1916-2016 average.

 

 

Basically normal at a less quality controlled station.    

 

It will be above normal by the end of this week.   

 

June was above normal there as well.  

[Front Ranger]

I am sure WFO SEA is about the same.   The Seattle area is how I judge summer.  

 

You don't even live in Seattle.

 

This is why those HPRCC maps are so valuable. The provide an overview from a lot of stations, and more accurately depict temp anomalies overall.

[Front Ranger]

Basically normal at a less quality controlled station.    

 

It will be above normal by the end of this week.   

 

June was above normal there as well.  

 

It's below 1916-2016 normal. Which means it's probably running about 1 degree below 1981-2010 normals. Very similar to OLM.

 

June was above normal everywhere. But SEA was, as usual, on the high end of things.

[TT-SEA]

It's below 1916-2016 normal. Which means it's probably running about 1 degree below 1981-2010 normals. Very similar to OLM.

 

 

I just don't trust those stations... they miss days.    Maybe not this month.   But stations that miss days are shaky.

 

That station missed 19 days in July 2002 and the entire month of July 2001 for example.  Who knows what they are missing too... could be cold spells or massive heat waves.  

[Front Ranger]

I just don't trust those stations... they miss days. Maybe not this month. But stations that miss days are shaky.

 

That station missed 19 days in July 2002 and the entire month of July 2001 for example. Who knows what they are missing too... could be cold spells or massive heat waves.

Well, you seem to have unwavering confidence in flawed stations as well. Inconsistent logic.

 

No station is perfect. Except one...

[TT-SEA]

Well, you seem to have unwavering confidence in flawed stations as well. Inconsistent logic.

 

No station is perfect. Except one...

 

 

The main stations are controlled better and do not miss days.     Pretty simple.    

 

SEA

OLM

BLI

WFO SEA

 

etc.

[Geos]

I do well in almost any flow except strong offshore flow in the winter.

 

You probably end up with too much dry air in that situation?

[Geos]

Spent the day hiking up by Snoqualmie pass and a little east of there. Beautiful day after about 10am.

 

[Tyler Mode]

Nice chilly 48 for a low here in Battle Ground.

[Jesse]

Nice morning.

 

We were in the Cascade Lakes area west of Bend most of yesterday, and the weather could not have been more perfect for hiking and swimming.

[Trainwreck]

Nice morning.

 

We were in the Cascade Lakes area west of Bend most of yesterday, and the weather could not have been more perfect for hiking and swimming.

I love that area. Really good fishing as well.

[Jesse]

I love that area. Really good fishing as well.

Yeah, it's great down there. The bugs weren't bad at all either.

 

[Jesse]

12z GFS MOS doesn't even have PDX getting up to 90 this week.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF backed off for the next weekend... but 12Z GFS came in stronger and faster with the trough.   12Z ECMWF will be interesting.

 

Looks like a perfect pattern on the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean and operational run for next week.   Not hot and not chilly... just right.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls17/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls17-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-gGsqyh.png

[snow_wizard]

Incredible weekend!  Crystal clear skies and not hot.

[Geos]

I don't see one single cloud right now. Awesome day.

 

51° for a low this morning.

[snow_wizard]

Nice chilly 48 for a low here in Battle Ground.

 

It dropped to 51 here.  Nice to see some chillier low temps.

[TT-SEA]

It dropped to 51 here.  Nice to see some chillier low temps.

 

 

Only 54 here for a low... 58 at SEA so they got a +2 start on the day.

 

Must have been good for radiational cooling last night at lower spots.  

 

I got up at 6 a.m. to bright sunny skies and then it completely fogged in for about 20 minutes then back to sunny.

[Jesse]

PDX was -2 on its low this morning.

 

Running a -1.1 anomaly for July through yesterday.