July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Bryant]

Eh, Phil is pretty much the only one to really lose his s**t with Tim, though. The rest of us have seen his act for so long, we just occasionally put him in his place (without resorting to name-calling and fits of rage).

 

And then move on.

These post counts on the forum have to be at an all time high for this time of year lol

[TT-SEA]

Eh, Phil is pretty much the only one to really lose his s**t with Tim, though. The rest of us have seen his act for so long, we just occasionally put him in his place (without resorting to name-calling and fits of rage).

 

And then move on.

 

 

Really?    

 

That was pretty rude.    

[Front Ranger]

Dude... SEA is not even close to the warmest spot in the area.  

 

That is a pretty large area up here that is at or above normal. 

 

Nothing you're saying is contradicting anything I actually said. Give it up. You're the one hunting for a fight now. Guess you're hooked on it now, and sadly, Phil isn't around this evening.  <_>

[TT-SEA]

Nothing you're saying is contradicting anything I actually said. Give it up. You're the one hunting for a fight now. Guess you're hooked on it now, and sadly, Phil isn't around this evening.  <_>

 

You bolded SEA like it was the only station even remotely close to normal.   To my post with Jim nonetheless.    Who picked the fight?   

[Front Ranger]

Really?    

 

That was pretty rude.    

 

 

[TT-SEA]

For SEA.

 

Which is all that matters, of course.

 

You picked the fight.

 

My point is that its not just SEA.   Many places are even warmer than SEA.

[Jesse]

Who knew that a slightly cooler than average first 2/3 of July, regionally, would be this nice/upsetting.

I'd hate to see this place if August actually ends up solidly below normal.

[TT-SEA]

It would be better if it was solidly below normal for every single station in the region.  Then there would be no discussion.   It would be much easier.   

 

Its not about being cold... its about painting over a pretty large area up here where many of us live with a cold regional brush and getting angry that it has not been colder than normal up here.     Some mocking posts about Victoria as well.  

 

Pretty simple... a regionally cold July will end up above normal for most of Western WA, NW OR and SW BC.     Oh well.   It does not take away from the cold in Spokane or Boise... or in Portland and Eugene.

[Deweydog]

It would be better if it was solidly below normal for every single station in the region. Then there would be no discussion. It would be much easier.

 

Its not about being cold... its about painting over a pretty large area up here where many of us live with a cold regional brush and getting angry that it has not been colder than normal up here. Some mocking posts about Victoria as well.

 

Pretty simple... a regionally cold July will end up above normal for most of Western WA, NW OR and SW BC. Oh well. It does not take away from the cold in Spokane or Boise... or in Portland and Eugene.

It's a subjective novice's worst nightmare.

 

Fairly noticeable spreads over a relatively small geographical area. You two won't and should not rest until there is cool anomaly unity.

 

August? April 2018?

[TT-SEA]

It's a subjective novice's worst nightmare.

 

Fairly noticeable spreads over a relatively small geographical area. You two won't and should not rest until there is cool anomaly unity.

 

August? April 2018?

 

Can't just blame it on SEA.    I am going to start reporting on Pendleton, OR now.    That makes sense.   Why would I care about the Seattle area?  I just randomly picked it to bother Jared.   

[ShawniganLake]

Why? Rain?

 

My mom was picking in Lynden last Friday and she said they were great.

My blueberries did fine, until the birds got them. Actually everything in the garden has been pretty good. Tomatoes are starting to ripen. Cucumbers have been producing for over a month.

[Deweydog]

Can't just blame it on SEA. I am going to start reporting on Pendleton, OR now. That makes sense. Why would I care about the Seattle area? I just randomly picked it to bother Jared.

The Pendleton Round Up is just around the corner...

[TT-SEA]

My blueberries did fine, until the birds got them. Actually everything in the garden has been pretty good. Tomatoes are starting to ripen. Cucumbers have been producing for over a month.

 

 

Same here... blueberries were good.   Tomato pants are huge and producing.   Cucumbers coming in bunches.   And I think our apple tree branches are going to break off from the weight of all the apples.    And tons of plums coming as well.   

[Jesse]

The Pendleton Round Up is just around the corner...

Might need some Pendleton wool blankets out there!

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is about the same for Saturday with 850mb temps as the 18Z run.    

 

And deeper with the trough on Sunday.

[Front Ranger]

Can't just blame it on SEA.    I am going to start reporting on Pendleton, OR now.    That makes sense.   Why would I care about the Seattle area?  I just randomly picked it to bother Jared.   

 

It doesn't bother me. I know you are trolling most the time. You gotta get your kicks somewhere, I guess.

 

Still, I don't mind pointing out how misleading it is for you to always act like SEA anomalies reflect the region. Or even Seattle. 

 

It skews warm. Warmer anomalies than places with different histories, warmer than most stations. The regional maps consistently back this up. No amount of wrangling changes that.

 

In June, SEA was on the warm end. Most of western WA was closer to OLM. That's how it usually goes.

[Front Ranger]

You picked the fight.

 

My point is that its not just SEA.   Many places are even warmer than SEA.

 

SEA will end up with a warmer anomaly than most stations. Exactly what I predicted weeks ago. It's too easy. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA will end up with a warmer anomaly than most stations. Exactly what I predicted weeks ago. It's too easy. 

 

 

Because its in an larger area of the region with warmer temperatures in relation to average.  Not because SEA is some outlier this month like you are claiming.   It so easy.  

[Front Ranger]

Because its in an larger area of the region with warmer temperatures in relation to average.  Not because SEA is some outlier this month like you are claiming.   It so easy.  

 

SEA is an outlier. It's proven statistically. Not over one month, but many.

[TT-SEA]

It doesn't bother me. I know you are trolling most the time. You gotta get your kicks somewhere, I guess.

 

Still, I don't mind pointing out how misleading it is for you to always act like SEA anomalies reflect the region. Or even Seattle. 

 

It skews warm. Warmer anomalies than places with different histories, warmer than most stations. The regional maps consistently back this up. No amount of wrangling changes that.

 

In June, SEA was on the warm end. Most of western WA was closer to OLM. That's how it usually goes.

 

 

Jesse like your cold talk.   It excites him.

 

I never said SEA anomalies reflect the PNW.    Ever.   That is you trolling.   

 

SEA reflects the area this month from NW OR to SW BC very well.    Its in the middle of that area.   

[TT-SEA]

1. Care to show the evidence for your first statement? Sure, Seattle north was one of the warmer areas of the region this month. But there was no way to know that would be the case weeks ago. But I still knew SEA would be among the warmer stations this month. How am I so smart, almost approaching Phil/Tim levels???

 

2. SEA is an outlier. It's proven statistically. Not over one month, but many.

 

 

Not an outlier this month.   Much warmer areas to the north and south.  Maybe over the long term... that is your endless battle and not mine.

 

 

[Deweydog]

Not an outlier this month.   Much warmer areas to the north and south.  Maybe over the long term... that is your endless battle and not mine.

 

 

 

The green formation over the Portland/Vancouver area as described by Jodie Foster:

 

[TT-SEA]

SEA was at +0.5 for July through yesterday.

 

WFO SEA was at +0.4

 

So SEA represents Seattle well this month.

 

 

BLI is +1.4

 

AST is at +2.4

 

 

How is SEA the outlier?    It matches up with a station close by and its not even close to the warmest station in the region.

 

Feels like Jared is continuing his battle about SEA and OLM even though I never challenged him.    And I certainly don't think the entire region has been warm like SEA.

[Geos]

Low of 56 here and 59 at SEA.   Are you in low spot up there?

 

It's kind of in a lower area between two higher portions of the plateau. Not real low, but there is somewhat of a dip.

 

86° here today. It was feeling pretty hot out there!

[Geos]

Nice sunset tonight.

 

excuse the Cottonwood. lol

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

SEA was at +0.5 for July through yesterday.

 

WFO SEA was at +0.4

 

So SEA represents Seattle well this month.

 

 

BLI is +1.4

 

AST is at +2.4

 

 

How is SEA the outlier?    It matches up with a station close by and its not even close to the warmest station in the region.

 

Feels like Jared is continuing his battle about SEA and OLM even though I never challenged him.    And I certainly don't think the entire region has been warm like SEA.

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS has 850mb temps up to 20C later next week again.     But the pattern looks sort of troughy so its all good!  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/850_temp_ht/gfs_namer_240_850_temp_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian not looking real cold for next week either.    This is next Tuesday (day 8). 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

[stuffradio]

Because of how warm it's been at SEA?

Mostly. But seriously, I think it's because of the combination of the warm weather early on, then the cloud/rain we had and then the switch to dry. I'm not totally sure though.

 

Why?  Rain?

 

My mom was picking in Lynden last Friday and she said they were great.

I think because of the combination of the weather pattern we have had with all the rain and colder then warmer weather.

[TT-SEA]

Brett just did a post about the warmth that has dominated all of Canada this summer except a few regions in the east.

 

Vancouver is on the list at +1.3 and Victoria at +2.0

 

Victoria is actually one of the warmest cities in Canada this summer.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/warmth-dominating-across-canada-so-far-this-summer/59012634

[ShawniganLake]

Brett just did a post about the warmth that has dominated all of Canada this summer except a few regions in the east.

 

Vancouver is on the list at +1.3 and Victoria at +2.0

 

Victoria is actually one of the warmest cities in Canada this summer.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/warmth-dominating-across-canada-so-far-this-summer/59012634

Should be noted that those departures are in degrees Celsius as well.

[TT-SEA]

Should be noted that those departures are in degrees Celsius as well.

 

 

Good point.   Victoria still one of the warmest departures in Canada though.

 

Even Kelowna is above normal which should match up with places like Spokane.

[ShawniganLake]

Good point. Victoria still one of the warmest departures in Canada though.

 

Even Kelowna is above normal which should match up with places like Spokane.

ENSO lag

[TT-SEA]

ENSO lag

 

So what is the Victoria departure for the summer in farenheit?

[Jesse]

All of this midsummer warmth is probably setting us up for a chilly late summer/early fall.

[snow_wizard]

Not an outlier this month.   Much warmer areas to the north and south.  Maybe over the long term... that is your endless battle and not mine.

 

 

 

Certainly a very cool month in Kittitas County.  The anomalies this month have not been reflective of the below normal 850s for the Puget Sound region.

[TT-SEA]

Certainly a very cool month in Kittitas County.  The anomalies this month have not been reflective of the below normal 850s for the Puget Sound region.

 

 

Maybe because of the cooler 850mb temps... and reduced onshore flow with the eastside being colder than normal?

 

Our cooler summers often come with warmer 850mb temps and marine inversions (and a hot eastside) or with numerous rain events (e.g. 1993).  This summer has been in between those scenarios.

[snow_wizard]

All of this midsummer warmth is probably setting us up for a chilly late summer/early fall.

 

I think July / August will go down as below normal when looking at the big picture.  The relative warmth over the Western lowlands has been the result of no days managing to hang onto low clouds all day.  The onshore flow has been too strong in a lot of cases.

[ShawniganLake]

So what is the Victoria departure for the summer in farenheit?

+3.6F

[snow_wizard]

The WRF obviously has a bad read on the marine layer currently moving inland.  Already cloudy at Shelton and yet the WRF shows it remaining clear all night in areas that are already cloudy.