July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Not sure, don't think so. March might have been close, I believe Shawnigan was the coolest station in the province relative to average, but still above normal. Last September was the coolest in 20 years here.

Warm September makes sense based on the evolution this summer. Deep troughing until the middle of July certainly favors it. Just the way it usually works here.

[Front Ranger]

I am feeling a warmish September. Maybe a mild November too.

 

Average September. Warm November.

[Phil]

Warm September makes sense based on the evolution this summer. Deep troughing until the middle of July certainly favors it. Just the way it usually works here.

Unfortunately, this year has no precedent at this point. The IOD/NPAC conjunction, unprecedented QBO behavior, and unexpectedly weak solar forcing renders many of these comparisons useless.

[Jesse]

Not sure, don't think so. March might have been close, I believe Shawnigan was the coolest station in the province relative to average, but still above normal. Last September was the coolest in 20 years here.

 

That's surprising. Since 1996 I'm guessing? 

 

Last September was basically average here. Just slightly below.

[Jesse]

My guess for September would be pretty close to average this year. There will probably be some heat but enough cool spells to balance it out. Then maybe we will get a long awaited cool/stormy October afterward.

[Deweydog]

Whatever happened to the fool-proof hot July/cold October combogasm?

[Front Ranger]

My guess for September would be pretty close to average this year. There will probably be some heat but enough cool spells to balance it out. Then maybe we will get a long awaited cool/stormy October afterward.

 

Maybe not as stormy as you'd like, but it hasn't been that long since the last legit cool October.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Oct 2013 was the coolest October since 1972 at OLM. 45 years.

[ShawniganLake]

That's surprising. Since 1996 I'm guessing?

 

Last September was basically average here. Just slightly below.

I believe 1996, yes.

 

Topped out at 85F here this afternoon. Not much sea breeze. The last two days we reached our high for the day around 130pm and then the ESE breeze kicked up. Today's high temp didn't occur until much later, a little after 430pm.

[Jesse]

Whatever happened to the fool-proof hot July/cold October combogasm?

It was never as reliable as the hot/cold anything/warm September rule.

[Deweydog]

It was never as reliable as the hot/cold anything/warm September rule.

[Jesse]

 

Fall ball season is just around the corner!

[Deweydog]

Fall ball season is just around the corner!

Last year of coaching... May or may not be a lightly-jacketed send off!!!!?

[TT-SEA]

Unfortunately, this year has no precedent at this point. The IOD/NPAC conjunction, unprecedented QBO behavior, and unexpectedly weak solar forcing renders many of these comparisons useless.

 

And yet its plugging along like so many other summers here with a Nina or transition to a Nina.

[snow_wizard]

Maybe not as stormy as you'd like, but it hasn't been that long since the last legit cool October.

 

Oct13TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

Indeed.  October seems to have escaped the major warming some months have seen this century.

[snow_wizard]

Whatever happened to the fool-proof hot July/cold October combogasm?

 

I still think it's an excellent combination.  I don't consider this a legit warm July though.

[snow_wizard]

Oct 2013 was the coolest October since 1972 at OLM. 45 years.

 

It was really chilly here too.

[Jesse]

Indeed.  October seems to have escaped the major warming some months have seen this century.

 

We just had back to back record warm Octobers down here. 2014 and 2015.

 

2003 was also a top warm October.

[Jesse]

I still think it's an excellent combination.  I don't consider this a legit warm July though.

 

Victoria and SEA beg to differ!!

[TT-SEA]

I still think it's an excellent combination.  I don't consider this a legit warm July though.

 

The last two weeks have been sort of warm.   Quite warm in places like Astoria and Bellingham.   And even South King County.   

 

Wish these maps reached into Canada.   It would make the warm anomalies look more impressive on a larger scale.

 

[snow_wizard]

We just had back to back record warm Octobers down here. 2014 and 2015.

 

2003 was also a top warm October.

 

Yeah...but...

 

There have been  a lot of chilly or normal ones.  Even 2003 had the wild cold snap at the end of the month.

[snow_wizard]

Solar flux numbers are once again near levels seen at absolute solar minimum during the past several cycles.  The coming solar min will likely feature numbers not seen in the modern era.

[Phil]

And yet its plugging along like so many other summers here with a Nina or transition to a Nina.

In some respects it has, and in some respects it hasn't. This is not the year you wanna be relying on "climatology" to forecast going forward.

 

Trust me on this one. Things are going to get very wacky.

[Jesse]

In some respects it has, and in some respects it hasn't. This is not the year you wanna be relying on "climatology" to forecast going forward.

 

Trust me on this one. Things are going to get whacky.

Expect this line to be referred to in a mocking manner dozens of times over the next few months.

[Phil]

Expect this line to be referred to in a mocking manner dozens of times of the next few months.

Damnit, lol.

[Phil]

Autocorrect might be the best and worst invention ever in human history.

[TT-SEA]

In some respects it has, and in some respects it hasn't. This is not the year you wanna be relying on "climatology" to forecast going forward.

 

Trust me on this one. Things are going to get very wacky.

 

 

The models look pretty mundane through the first part of August.

 

If there is no guide then you don't really know what will happen.  

[Phil]

There's a good chance (not certain) we'll see the Niña strengthen from late winter into/through next summer, with an off-climo peak in spring/summer, with a secondary peak next winter. Also might be an early start to winter in the US, weird NAM/PV progression, so on.

 

Not going to be kind to long range forecasting. Might be the Donald Trump version of weather/climate upcoming.

[Phil]

If there is no guide then you don't really know what will happen.

There are still physical realities to derive/extrapolate from. Piecing them together is another story.

[Jesse]

There's a good chance (not certain) we'll see the Niña strengthen from late winter into/through next summer, with an off-climo peak in spring/summer, with a secondary peak next winter. Also might be an early start to winter in the US, weird NAM/PV progression, so on.

 

Not going to be kind to long range forecasting. Might be the Donald Trump version of weather/climate upcoming.

 

Utterly unpredictable, potentially destructive, and all in all a massive existential threat to our country and its people?

 

Yikes.

[Phil]

Utterly unpredictable, potentially destructive, and all in all a massive existential threat to our country and its people?

 

Yikes.

Lol.

 

Definite yes to the first two, meh on #3.

[Phil]

Trevor Noah summed up the disaster that will be Trump as president tonight. Its scary. People will regret their vote for Trump for the rest of their lives. Thankfully votes from people like Jim will not count in this state. Can't say the same for some other states.

No doubt the dude is a lunatic, but there's a lot of tinfoil-hat crap circling around as of late.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is weaker with the trough on Saturday than the 12Z run.     Surprising reversal.     Not something that happens with the ECMWF within 72 hours.

[Jesse]

Quick pro-tip. This time of year especially, 00Z Euro runs will appear much warmer than 12Z runs, since 00Z is the middle of the afternoon and 12Z is the early morning. Have to account for that.

[TT-SEA]

Weekend looks just perfect on the 00Z ECMWF.   Full sunshine across the entire region both afternoons with highs in the mid to upper 70s.  

[TT-SEA]

Not the 850mb temps... the 500mb level is different and the surface temps are warmer.   Big change for being in the short term.  

 

12Z run for Saturday afternoon...

 

 

 

00Z run...

 

[TT-SEA]

Good news for trough-lovers though... the 00Z ECMWF is much deeper with the trough on Monday.

[Phil]

Looks like noise superimposed on an underlying trend to me.

 

CMC/GFS faster, ECMWF/UKMET slower.

[ShawniganLake]

Was there ever any money put on the line for the timing of the crash?

[TT-SEA]

Was there ever any money put on the line for the timing of the crash?

 

 

No.

 

Its not a ridge and its not a big crash... just a gentle cooling.

 

Here is Sunday...

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-0HiWtI.png