July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... WRF shows upper 80s in Portland again already by Wednesday.       

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is a little deeper with the trough on Saturday.

[Deweydog]

12Z ECMWF is a little deeper with the trough on Saturday.

Stop trolling!!!

[Jesse]

Stop trolling!!!

Apparently making 1/50 of your posts address increased troughing turns you into Mr. Objectivity in deweyland.

 

Does begrudgingly acknowledging warming trends every now and then make me objective in your book? I'm guessing the answer is no.

[BLI snowman]

12Z ECMWF is a little deeper with the trough on Saturday.

 

Yeah, it looks so frigid on Saturday  

 

Please be sure to emphasize the importance of bundling up to all your loved ones as they brave the 73 degree windchills and the 575dm heights!

 

I may even have to go jet-skiing on the lake that day to fight the freeze!! 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF run is troughier overall.  

 

Nothing too crazy... sort of a weak ridge/weak troughing situaiton.   Absolutely insane!   

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, it looks so frigid on Saturday

 

Please be sure to emphasize the importance of bundling up to all your loved ones as they brave the 73 degree windchills and the 575dm heights!

 

I may even have to go jet-skiing on the lake that day to fight the freeze!! 

 

A little deeper though.     It shows SEA and PDX barely getting to 75 that day which is below normal.  Worth mentioning  since it reverses the trend to warmer.   

[luminen]

Pretty high dew points here today. Where I live the station has a dew point of 67F, downtown Vancouver 62F, and White Rock is 66F. Need thunderstorms...   

[Deweydog]

Apparently making 1/50 of your posts address increased troughing turns you into Mr. Objectivity in deweyland.

 

Does begrudgingly acknowledging warming trends every now and then make me objective in your book? I'm guessing the answer is no.

You both wouldn't know objectivity if it bit you right in your nina-resultant frost-bit tushies.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, that 570dm thickness line is dangerously close to dropping south of us at some point during day 10. Keeping a very close eye on it.

 

Big picture. 

[Jesse]

You both wouldn't know objectivity if it bit you right in your nina-resultant frost-bit tushies.

 

Anyhow, I can understand your desire to defend him considering he's been such an angel lately. Or maybe you are warming up to his posts (no pun intended!1!1) since your needs tend to align this time of year. Regardless, I find it interesting.

[Phil]

Just to set the record straight, the 12z GFS is cooler than average both Saturday and Sunday, though it's warmer than the 12z ECMWF.

 

[Deweydog]

 

Anyhow, I can understand your desire to defend him considering he's been such an angel lately. Or maybe you are warming up to his posts (no pun intended!1!1) since your needs tend to align this time of year. Regardless, I find it interesting.

He's a tool, but he has been getting more guff than he probably deserves in my opinion.

[Deweydog]

Big picture.

Kinda blah. Nothing sharp, nothing flashy, nothing Kardashian.

[Jesse]

He's a tool, but he has been getting more guff than he probably desrves in my opinion.

Awwww. I just can't stay mad at all of those model maps with such pretty shades of red and orange.

[Deweydog]

Awwww. I just can't stay mad at all of those model maps with such pretty shades of red and orange.

You guys do love your maps o' emotions.

[Phil]

Speaking of the GFS, we should cherish it while we still have it.

 

It's going to be completely replaced within the next few years: http://www.noaa.gov/noaa-develop-new-global-weather-model

 

Though we'll still call it the "GFS", it will be a completely different model w/ a completely different dynamic core.

[Phil]

The current GFS is a spectral model. The new model will be a convective model w/ a GFDL-based core.

[Jesse]

Just to set the record straight, the 12z GFS is cooler than average both Saturday and Sunday, though it's warmer than the 12z ECMWF.

 

image.png image.png

Tim and Phil thread?

[Jesse]

Let's not forget about the other thread, fellas.

 

Don't like having to sift though this endless debate to read any meaningful weather info everyday.

[Phil]

"Setting the record straight" on something he said.

Wasn't actually referring to Tim, more to the general discussion on the 12z GFS.

[Front Ranger]

Jared's post said "troughy", not "chilly".

 

Troughy-ish, to be exact. Upcoming pattern for early August looks maybe normal, maybe below, but not likely above normal.

 

Definitely closer to troughy than ridgy.

[Front Ranger]

He's a tool, but he has been getting more guff than he probably deserves in my opinion.

 

Perhaps, but he's earned quite a backlog of guff over the years.

[Deweydog]

Perhaps, but he's earned quite a backlog of guff over the years.

True. This is pretty much the first time ever.

[Jesse]

Perhaps, but he's earned quite a backlog of guff over the years.

Warm guff payback has a shorter statute of limitations than cold guff payback.

[Front Ranger]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1371-the-tim-and-phil-thread/page-2

[Front Ranger]

Seattle was much colder in the July 1-10 period.

 

Its been well above normal on average from July 11-26 and will be even more so in the Jul 11-31 period.   The month started cold and basically transitioned to warm after the 10th.

 

I live in the Seattle area.   I used local history as a guide for making my guess about how July will evolve.   I did not use Boise or Spokane.    

 

No. Even just for the Seattle area it was only a little above normal.

[Deweydog]

I really thought persistence was going to win out through at least the middle of the summer. Regime change came faster than anyone thought back in April.

 

Probably sets us up for a nice second half of summer and early fall.

I kinda thought the same thing, although I never had much of a read on this summer.

[Phil]

One could argue the QBO hiccup over W/H climo is responsible for the excessive NPAC height rises (offEq tropopausal height rises/cell expansion relative to Eq --> diffuse 20N/20S). So, is the ongoing troughing really just a prelude to the real deal later on? Or has this merely allowed the extratropics to synchronize w/ the Niña state more easily? I could see arguments for both points of view here.

[Phil]

I've really gotten into lightning photography this summer, for some reason. Caught some "cloud-to-air" lightning a few days ago, if anyone's interested (if not, I'll stop posting these here).

 

[Phil]

Gotta love the CFS.

 

It was calling for a western ridge/+PNA in July/August back in early July. For whatever reason, this model is unable to capture the unfolding La Niña to an adequate degree. I suspect it's overplaying the +PNA in S/O/N, as well.

 

Agree with its idea of strong NPAC blocking/anticyclonic breaking in D/J/F.

[Phil]

That's great! Keep posting, you should also set up an Instagram page.

Thanks, I appreciate it.

[GHweatherChris]

Check out the latest CFS v2 Monthly model. It looks like in August the ridge of high pressure will move offshore and along with a SE ridge we will have a negative PNA pattern.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016072700/cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_1.png

 

But then check out what happens the next 3 months, Sep. to Nov. the ridge sets up more or less right over the PNW, giving us drier and warmer weather, a positive PNA pattern.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016072700/cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_2.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016072700/cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_3.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016072700/cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_4.png

 

However check out what happens in December and January! The negative PNA pattern returns and December looks especially good with the SE ridge and the ridge out in the Pacific amplifying up into Alaska! The pattern looks wet as well and doesn't look dry so December looks really snowy. Then in January the SE ridge gets even stronger and the ridge is still out there in the Pacific. Still a negative PNA pattern. Get ready for a snowy and cold Winter here in the PNW!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016072700/cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_5.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016072700/cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_6.png

Heights are too high for December and January actually, bummer.

[Jesse]

Heights are too high for December and January actually, bummer.

Winter cancel?

[Phil]

Heights are too high for December and January actually, bummer.

It's an ensemble aggregation. Taking the heights verbatim makes no fooking sense. Placement/orientation is all that matters.

[TT-SEA]

September looks like a gem.

[ShawniganLake]

September looks like a gem.

I am feeling a warmish September. Maybe a mild November too.

[MossMan]

Lovely day! Currently 80 degrees on this fantastic evening!

[Jesse]

I am feeling a warmish September. Maybe a mild November too.

Has your area even seen a below average month this year?

[ShawniganLake]

Has your area even seen a below average month this year?

Not sure, don't think so. March might have been close, I believe Shawnigan was the coolest station in the province relative to average, but still above normal. Last September was the coolest in 20 years here.