July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

It's early, but the trends over the last 4-6 months suggest (to me) this might be a very good winter for you guys. I'm not ready to call for it yet, but I'm almost ready to.

I like the sound of that!

[Front Ranger]

The Seattle area is more pleasant than it used to be... that probably will not change.   Actually it will likely continue slowly upward overall.    With a few steps down from time to time.

 

Of course there were some incredible summers and winters here in the late 1800s and early 1900s.   That was a nice era.

 

Ok, but there's a difference between a slowly warming regional climate and UHI changes at a particular station.

 

OLM has had a number of below normal Augusts in the past 15 years. In fact, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2006, 2002, and 2001 were all below their long term normal for August.

 

Definitely due for a significantly below normal August, though.

[TT-SEA]

Ok, but there's a difference between a slowly warming regional climate and UHI changes at a particular station.

 

OLM has had a number of below normal Augusts in the past 15 years. In fact, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2006, 2002, and 2001 were all below their long term normal for August.

Sure... but the Seattle area is warmer than it used to be. Not just SEA.

[Front Ranger]

Sure... but the Seattle area is warmer than it used to be. Not just SEA.

 

Everywhere is warmer than it used to be. 

 

SEA has warmed more significantly than most stations, due to reasons we've discussed ad nauseum. So using it as a proxy for regional anomalies is shaky. Not that complicated.

[ShawniganLake]

Overall, The GFS ensembles look pretty seasonable over the next 2 weeks. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Jesse]

Overall, The GFS ensembles look pretty seasonable over the next 2 weeks.

 

That same chart looks much cooler for down here.

 

Will probably continue to be a pattern that is milder in NW WA/ SW BC for whatever reason.

[Phil]

Funny to see 1993 still showing up on the CPC site. Has been an frequent analog on there since March, along with a bunch of 1950s years.

[snow_wizard]

I'm ready, we should start a fantasy football league here!

 

Is this on topic??

[snow_wizard]

That same chart looks much cooler for down here.

 

Will probably continue to be a pattern that is milder in NW WA/ SW BC for whatever reason.

 

The operational is considerably cooler than the ensemble.

[snow_wizard]

The crash on the 6z GFS is even more impressive than previous runs.  The ensemble mean shows 850s below normal for the entire first third of August now.

[TT-SEA]

The crash on the 6z GFS is even more impressive than previous runs.  The ensemble mean shows 850s below normal for the entire first third of August now.

 

 

Look at the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Although it could be a situation where the troughiest models wins right now.   Sort of feels that way.

[TT-SEA]

Yuppies sure ruin everything.  The town of Kirkland has been destroyed by them. It has no character whatsoever compared to what it used to be.

 

 

By the way Jim... Seattle was not doing so great before the technology boom that re-invented the economy here and brought all these "yuppies" which "ruined" everything.   

 

http://gilmanpark.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/lastpersonleavingseattle_31.jpg

 

 

Not to mention... the real group of people who ruined everything here was the first Europeans in the late 1800s and early 1900s.   Slash and burn with no concern for the environment.   I am sure the Native Americans were real happy with our arrival.  

[GobBluth]

12z caps the 850s at no more than 19c over Portland on Thursday night then slow cooling on Friday. At most I think PDX gets to 92 on Thursday or Friday.

[TT-SEA]

Latest update...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.25.2016.gif

[Front Ranger]

By the way Jim... Seattle was not doing so great before the technology boom that re-invented the economy here and brought all these "yuppies" which "ruined" everything.

 

http://gilmanpark.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/lastpersonleavingseattle_31.jpg

 

 

Not to mention... the real group of people who ruined everything here was the first Europeans in the late 1800s and early 1900s. Slash and burn with no concern for the environment. I am sure the Native Americans were real happy with our arrival.

When's that pic from, 1978? The whole US economy was in a pretty sour place then.

[TT-SEA]

When's that pic from, 1978? The whole US economy was in a pretty sour place then.

 

Bottom line is that Seattle's economy was in need of reinvention or it could have been another Flint here.    The technology boom and flood of new talent was the infusion needed.   

 

Things changes and evolve.    Jim's view is myopic for someone who is seemingly so concerned about the economy.  

[Front Ranger]

Latest update...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.25.2016.gif

Big PDO drop in July.

[Phil]

Strongest trade wind surge in over 4yrs is about to rape those ENSO SSTs, too.

[TT-SEA]

Strongest trade wind surge in over 4yrs is about to rape those ENSO SSTs, too.

 

 

Explain.   

[Front Ranger]

Bottom line is that Seattle's economy was in need of reinvention or it could have been another Flint here.    The technology boom and flood of new talent was the infusion needed.  

 

Things changes and evolve.    Jim's view is myopic for someone who is seemingly so concerned about the economy.  

 

I agree that the tech boom has been great for Seattle.

 

But Flint? C'mon...Flint was never half the city Seattle was. Seattle has been a commercial, cultural, financial, and educational hub for the region for a long time. Flint's situation was due to being a much more one-dimensional town.

[TT-SEA]

I agree that the tech boom has been great for Seattle.

 

But Flint? C'mon...Flint was never half the city Seattle was. Seattle has been a commercial, cultural, financial, and educational hub for the region for a long time. Flint's situation was due to being a much more one-dimensional town.

 

 

Point still stands... cities need to grow and evolve to be vibrant.    Jim's views are so close-minded.

[ShawniganLake]

77F here with a 63 degree dew point. Feels a bit muggy. Quite a bit of mid level cloudiness so far today.

[Phil]

Explain.

Trade wind burst dateline/east will raise thermocline in E/C Pacific, induce cooling/upwelling.

[TT-SEA]

Trade wind burst dateline/east will raise thermocline in E/C Pacific, induce cooling/upwelling.

 

OK... thanks for clarifying.

[Phil]

OK... thanks for clarifying.

No problem. If you'd like to track forcing, here's a good site for it:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2016072512&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

Orange/Red indicates subsidence, Green/Blue indicates lift. Subsidence over Pacific = Niña circulation/forcing.

[Phil]

12Z ECMWF is still not as fast as the GFS.

 

It shows temps in the mid-80s on Saturday for Seattle with full sunshine everywhere.

 

Sunday is likely the cool day.

ECMWF is ~12hrs faster than its 00z run, however. Also, 12z Canadian & NAEFS are faster than the ECMWF.

 

I think both 7/30 & 7/31 end up cool, at least for daytime highs. All we need is timing to bump forward by ~18hrs to achieve cooler than average overnight lows for 7/30.

[Jesse]

The 12z Euro is a really troughy run.

[Geos]

Up to 81° here. Couple clouds today, but largely blue skies again.

About 54° for a low this morning here, which a little under normal I see.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 81° here. Couple clouds today, but largely blue skies again.

About 54° for a low this morning here, which a little under normal I see.

 

Low of 56 here and 59 at SEA.   Are you in low spot up there?

[Front Ranger]

The 12z Euro is a really troughy run.

Yup. Moves second trough in after the first with only a short break in between.

 

Certain airports aside, that's a below normal pattern for most the region after day 5. Probably with a fair amount of sunshine.

[Jesse]

It's a discussion dude, you've "challenged" me just as frequently as I've "challenged" you.

 

Saturday will not be 80+, even @ SEA. I think we should start a forecast contest for the "crash" to settle this.

It would be a good time for one. I might put something together.

 

I'm going to score the monthly anom contest once July is over, too.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF ensemble mean is less troughy for early next week than the operational run.    And the operational run was still a little above average at SEA for Monday and Tuesday.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-NOusDQ.png

[Phil]

The 12z EPS is now cooler than average at all stations during the 11-15 day period. Looks to continue thereafter.

[Front Ranger]

I only hope to win at SEA. 

 

I had June at +2.8 and it was +2.6

 

I have July at +1.4 and it will be close.   

 

Roughly a +2.0 summer in Seattle going into August.   Going to have to be -4.0 to break even for JJA.  

 

Fortunately, the contest looks beyond one station, whether you want to or not. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How do people feel about this Nina looking like a complete bust already? Some models saying ENSO goes positive by New Years!

[TT-SEA]

How do people feel about this Nina looking like a complete bust already? Some models saying ENSO goes positive by New Years!

 

 

I feel terrible about it.   <_>

 

Not sure what you are seeing or if its real.   But neutral or Nina... we have a much better chance this winter than last year.

[GobBluth]

18Z stalls the trough... leaving a warm Saturday.    Warmer than the 12Z run by 2-3C at the 850mb level.  

850s don't get as warm during the heat wave. Forget 90s.

[Jesse]

850s don't get as warm during the heat wave. Forget 90s.

Thanks for cutting through the spin.

[GobBluth]

Thanks for cutting through the spin.

Call me O'Reilly, without the a** grabbing stuff.

[TT-SEA]

Not that it matters, but yeah, the 18z is a bit warmer for Saturday.

 

So simple.