Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[Tom]

Does the LRC cycle usually end around the 10th of the month or 20th of this month? I have been following Gary pretty consistent the last 4-5 months trying to learn more about this LRC deal, just curious has anyone disproved his theory.  He seems to ride the high horse that he is always correct(and maybe he has been).  I feel like there has not been the influx of winter weather predictions posted in here compared to previous years from outside mets.

It usually ends right before Thanksgiving.  So, in my interpretation, if the modeling is right, and what the PAC NW/British Columbia region experienced for the month of October (remember, they were annihilated by storms due to a strong GOA trough)...I expect to see a different alignment forthcoming as the GOA trough will not be present allowing the jet and pacific storms shift farther south in time due to the warmer waters in the NE PAC causing a feedback in the jet as winter matures.  In essence, it is my belief that the entire pattern will be "different" but the same storm pattern will remain causing a wetter period in the central CONUS.

[OKwx2k4]

Does the LRC cycle usually end around the 10th of the month or 20th of this month? I have been following Gary pretty consistent the last 4-5 months trying to learn more about this LRC deal, just curious has anyone disproved his theory. He seems to ride the high horse that he is always correct(and maybe he has been). I feel like there has not been the influx of winter weather predictions posted in here compared to previous years from outside mets.

I assume you've seen some of my questions in his blogs. So far all I've really gotten from it is shameless pandering and the same "more to come" stuff over and over. I think there's something to it but to what degree I have no idea.

[An italian the loves snow]

That's not a wx acronym, it's American textese for "For What It's Worth"..

 

 

20161110 Strato PV points to remember.PNG

Thanks a lot! I learned another way to say.

 

[An italian the loves snow]

Hint: whenever you are not sure of anything, just "Google" it.

Sorry Niko, i was thinking that was a weather stuff

 

[An italian the loves snow]

I am waiting to get snowstorms in December, J, AND F. Although, I wouldn't mind getting one in late November, right after Thanksgiving. One thing is for sure, this winter will be more strident than last year.

 

BTW: where are you located?

I like when winter comes early, because I love astronomical dark of November and December.

But for me it would be nice even some cloudy days, zero degrees and some snowflakes in the air. I live in Toronto downtown.

[Andrew NE]

Thanks guys, appreciate it.

 

OKwx2k4​ yes I sometimes get the same feeling from what others post on there, that's I was just curious to see what peoples thoughts on it were.

[jaster220]

More talk of a better pattern from GYX in Maine:

 

 

 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There are finally some changes to the upper air pattern that has
dominated the weather over North America for the past several
weeks. The large semi-permanent ridge that has existed over the
center of the continent is forecast to break down this weekend,
perhaps for good. One of the features which has caused this ridge
to remain stuck has been a cut off low over the Southwest USA and
northern Mexico. This low allowed a bubble of warm air to build to
the north of it over the western Great Plains and Rocky Mountains,
triggering downstream troughing over New England. As we go through
the next few days, the cut off low which sustained the anomalous
ridge will slowly begin to fill in, leaving the ridge vulnerable
to collapse as new waves push into it from the northwest. By
Saturday the breakdown is complete, and the flow across the
continent becomes more zonal, with much more progressive systems
tracking across the northern tier of the country. The flow becomes
more amplified again later in the week, though, with hints at
another blocking set up possible over the east coast.

 

[Niko]

I like when winter comes early, because I love astronomical dark of November and December.

But for me it would be nice even some cloudy days, zero degrees and some snowflakes in the air. I live in Toronto downtown.

Never been there, but I heard that there are lots of businesses there. Winters are cold also.

[Niko]

New winter outlooks should be arriving soon, especially by mid-month I am thinking. They will be the final one's as well.

[An italian the loves snow]

Never been there, but I heard that there are lots of businesses there. Winters are cold also.

I hope it is snowy too!

[Tom]

I like when winter comes early, because I love astronomical dark of November and December.

But for me it would be nice even some cloudy days, zero degrees and some snowflakes in the air. I live in Toronto downtown.

Glad that you have come aboard!  I've heard many great things about Toronto.  Not a bad place to live if you love the cold and snow!  I understand what you mean by enjoying the wintry weather during the darker months of November/December and even into January.  I feel the same way, but I know its not possible where I live, of course up north by your region it is.  Nothing better than a frigid day and a touch of snow!

[jaster220]

Per this tweet, we'd be looking at a pretty mild winter overall but we have more help currently from sea ice, solar, etc than those two analogs had going for them. Interestingly, they both brought a legit bliz to mby    Can't be all bad, can it?

 

 

 

 

[An italian the loves snow]

Glad that you have come aboard!  I've heard many great things about Toronto.  Not a bad place to live if you love the cold and snow!  I understand what you mean by enjoying the wintry weather during the darker months of November/December and even into January.  I feel the same way, but I know its not possible where I live, of course up north by your region it is.  Nothing better than a frigid day and a touch of snow!

Thank you for welcoming Tom. Toronto is a wonderful city. I wish soon I can see it cover of snow even if I know the lse often will act on the other shore of he Ontario lake. I will wait for s/e wind.

 

[An italian the loves snow]

This is the last run of CFSv2 model for December. 850 hpa temperature anomalies.. it would be a great month for whole NA!

[OKwx2k4]

This is the last run of CFSv2 model for December. 850 hpa temperature anomalies.. it would be a great month for whole NA!

That would be so awesome!

[Tom]

I'm starting to do some digging on the LRC cycle length.  Next weeks storm targeting the Plains/Upper Midwest and the tropical depression coming out of the Caribbean remind all to well what happened in early October.  First, let's talk about the potential tropical system.  The EPS is suggesting a very similar storm track up near Haiti in the Day 8-10 range.  Before Hurricane Matthew hit the FL/SE Coast (Oct 7-8), there was a rather small, but vigorous storm that came out of the Rockies and into the Plains near N KS which tracked NE into the W U.P.  There was a Tornado Watch issued for that storm and the seasons first Frost/Freeze advisories NW of the storm system.  It's not odd to see the GFS/EURO/GGEM spinning up a powerful storm next week.

 

In a nutshell, I think this cycle may be a shorter than usual length size.  Somewhere between 41-43 days.  This is my first guess ATM.

 

Now, going forward, let's say all of the above happen.  Back on Oct 10-13th, a split flow developed in the NE PAC and the models are definitely starting to look that way and along with that, a vortex established near Hudson Bay during this same period (we see this also developing in the modeling by Day 5).  An interesting period evolves after that if the LRC is to continue because the AO tanked and very Powerful Pacific storms targeted the PAC NW with Hurricane force winds.  That would bring us towards Nov 25th/26th!  Let's see if the models pick up a powerful storm during the Thanksgiving period.  

 

Come to think of it, Jaster posted on here several weeks ago about a storm using the Bearing Sea Rule which would cycle through during Thanksgiving week.  Now, there are possibly two long range tools that may predict a stormy Thanksgiving week.  How about that, ay???

[OKwx2k4]

I'm starting to do some digging on the LRC cycle length. Next weeks storm targeting the Plains/Upper Midwest and the tropical depression coming out of the Caribbean remind all to well what happened in early October. First, let's talk about the potential tropical system. The EPS is suggesting a very similar storm track up near Haiti in the Day 8-10 range. Before Hurricane Matthew hit the FL/SE Coast (Oct 7-8), there was a rather small, but vigorous storm that came out of the Rockies and into the Plains near N KS which tracked NE into the W U.P. There was a Tornado Watch issued for that storm and the seasons first Frost/Freeze advisories NW of the storm system. It's not odd to see the GFS/EURO/GGEM spinning up a powerful storm next week.

 

In a nutshell, I think this cycle may be a shorter than usual length size. Somewhere between 41-43 days. This is my first guess ATM.

 

Now, going forward, let's say all of the above happen. Back on Oct 10-13th, a split flow developed in the NE PAC and the models are definitely starting to look that way and along with that, a vortex established near Hudson Bay during this same period (we see this also developing in the modeling by Day 5). An interesting period evolves after that if the LRC is to continue because the AO tanked and very Powerful Pacific storms targeted the PAC NW with Hurricane force winds. That would bring us towards Nov 25th/26th! Let's see if the models pick up a powerful storm during the Thanksgiving period.

 

Come to think of it, Jaster posted on here several weeks ago about a storm using the Bearing Sea Rule which would cycle through during Thanksgiving week. Now, there are possibly two long range tools that may predict a stormy Thanksgiving week. How about that, ay???

If I can get the big storms to seed cold down into some of the disturbances that should roll through the southern stream in the periods that you mention, we should be good all the way around.

[jaster220]

Nice illustration here of what you guys have been seeing:

 

 

 

 

(entire prediction here from KY):  http://fox41blogs.typepad.com/wdrb_weather/2016/11/2016-17-winter-outlook.html

[Niko]

Nice illustration here of what you guys have been seeing:

 

20161111 Alaska ridging and X-polar flow.PNG

 

 

(entire prediction here from KY):  http://fox41blogs.typepad.com/wdrb_weather/2016/11/2016-17-winter-outlook.html

Nice post Jaster.

[westMJim]

Here is NOAA’s statement on the La Nina.  If that is where the storm track set up this winter we could be in for a snowy one for most of us. Time will tell.
http://www.noaa.gov/news/hello-la-nina
 

[Tom]

CFSv2 trends precip wise for December...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201612.gif

 

 

FWIW, the POAMA is also cooling the Rockies region, Plains and Midwest/OV.  It's also warming western CA/AK.

 

Meanwhile, here is the latest trends in the CFSv2...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201612.gif

[NEJeremy]

I was going through some old stuff and found this I saved to my computer last year. Seems to me, we all came up a little bit short on these amounts  , but I remember watching the models religiously leading up to this

[An italian the loves snow]

The past run of Cfs CFSv2 for December

[An italian the loves snow]

And these are the anomalies for 500 gpt

[Tom]

Saw these maps from the POAMA model which has been trending in the right direction for DJF.  2 big ridges off the SW/SE coasts of the U.S.

 

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

December and February look super snowy based on those Tom.

[Thunder98]

What if it's snows in Orlando this winter?

[Tom]

The JMA has updated their monthlies and they don't quite look that bad considering what they looked like last month.  In fact, it didn't do that terrible for the month of Nov overall in the U.S.  It had the right idea of where the trough position has primarily been parked in the GOA and over Siberia.  Where it didn't do to well was the neutral look over Canada and central tier of the CONUS.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201610.D1300_gl0.png

 

So, here is the new December 500mb outlook...what is odd about this, is the huge ridge north of Hawaii!  the model is seeing cold water where the ridge is supposed to be.  It does however, have a La Nina look to it with a signal for a SE ridge.  

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201611.D0700_gl0.png

 

 

Here are the SST's....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201611.D0700_gls.png

 

 

What is the CFSv2 showing???  Sorts similar 500mb over the N PAC...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

 

 

However, daily runs of the model are picking up on the Aleutian Low...with a downstream trough over the lower 48.  Far cry from where it was just a few days ago.  Let's see how this all unfolds.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20161113.201612.gif

[Tom]

Here's another look at the JMA December outlook...that would produce an active storm track along the nation's midsection.  

 

 

 

I see you CFSv2 storm track...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd3.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Here's another look at the JMA December outlook...that would produce an active storm track along the nation's midsection.

 

 

 

I see you CFSv2 storm track...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd2.gif

Let's get this party started. Got my first 32º freeze out of the way last night. Beat the previous record by 1 or 2 days. I like the slow and subtle changes in the CFSV2 storm track. I want to be on the western edge of the precip.

[GDR]

Let's get this party started. Got my first 32º freeze out of the way last night. Beat the previous record by 1 or 2 days. I like the slow and subtle changes in the CFSV2 storm track. I want to be on the western edge of the precip.

that would be a perfect winter track if it happened.

[Niko]

I am liking that I'm not getting any November snows. That means that December will rock, hopefully.

[Niko]

Now, that's what I'm talking about........

 

http://weatherdecoded.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/winter-forecast-map-combo-3-fb.jpg

[jaster220]

Now, that's what I'm talking about........

 

http://weatherdecoded.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/winter-forecast-map-combo-3-fb.jpg

 

Holy crap! Look what your map could mean Niko...and we can all blame you! 

 

Warminista crickets!

 

 

[Niko]

Holy crap! Look what your map could mean Niko...and we can all blame you! 

 

Warminista crickets!

 

20161113 JB on -50F departures in asia.PNG

[An italian the loves snow]

The updated winter forecast of Cohen.

[jaster220]

The updated winter forecast of Cohen.

 

Interesting that Jim Flowers really "feels" 1981-82 which I've agreed with from the start. The main difference would seem to be that Cohen's map really doesn't show a SE ridge whereas Flower's map and/or primary storm track reflects a ridge. He does allow for a secondary track up the EC though. Maybe they're both correct. Ridge early, later over-whelmed by a mature arctic mid-winter?

[Niko]

The updated winter forecast of Cohen.

Look at that Siberian Express rushing down.

 

 

Btw: you might see some snowsqualls this weekend. Keep an eye on that.

[Niko]

Interesting that Jim Flowers really "feels" 1981-82 which I've agreed with from the start. The main difference would seem to be that Cohen's map really doesn't show a SE ridge whereas Flower's map and/or primary storm track reflects a ridge. He does allow for a secondary track up the EC though. Maybe they're both correct. Ridge early, later over-whelmed by a mature arctic mid-winter?

Scratch off the 81-82 and make it a 13-14.

[Tom]

Interesting that Jim Flowers really "feels" 1981-82 which I've agreed with from the start. The main difference would seem to be that Cohen's map really doesn't show a SE ridge whereas Flower's map and/or primary storm track reflects a ridge. He does allow for a secondary track up the EC though. Maybe they're both correct. Ridge early, later over-whelmed by a mature arctic mid-winter?

That is what I'm thinking also.  December will probably start off real nice and active for most of our members, then as the season wears on I think the west coast ridge becomes a dominant pattern and could very well over whelm the entire SE ridge.  Feb/Mar could be an awesome second half and into Spring.  This season is going to have some legs.