October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

You don't remember the two bitter cold snaps that winter?  That's about all that was worth remembering on that one.

 

 

I don't remember it being 'bitter' up here.   

 

I also don't ever really remember cold weather unless there is snow.    I truly only care about cold in the winter because it means sun or preserves snow on the ground.   Feeling cold does not give me sexual excitement like some people.  

 

Now a big snowstorm...  

[snow_wizard]

Historically speaking if October ends up being a turd (which I am far from convinced will happen) our best hope for a decent winter will be if November and early December are warm also.  I will certainly be disappointed if this is another loser October.

[Deweydog]

Historically speaking if October ends up being a turd (which I am far from convinced will happen) our best hope for a decent winter will be if November and early December are warm also. I will certainly be disappointed if this is another loser October.

Relax. I heard from on high this will be the coldest month this fall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't remember it being 'bitter' up here.   

 

I also don't ever really remember cold weather unless there is snow.    I truly only care about cold in the winter because it means sun or preserves snow on the ground.   Feeling cold does not give me sexual excitement like some people.  

 

Now a big snowstorm...  

 

Not a lot of great patterns for snow at our locations that winter, but some very cold air. You may remember the -10 at Eugene. The massive EUG-PDX February snowstorm with the 23 degree high at PDX. LOL

[snow_wizard]

Looking like this will be a totally wasted trough from a cold night perspective.  Little clearing shown on any night while the air mass is still cold.  I sure wish we could have held onto the anomalous GOA ridge for another few weeks.

 

As Jesses has mentioned it would be nice to have an October with frosty nights and cool days just for its own sake.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking like this will be a totally wasted trough from a cold night perspective.  Little clearing shown on any night while the air mass is still cold.  I sure wish we could have held onto the anomalous GOA ridge for another few weeks.

 

As Jesses has mentioned it would be nice to have an October with frosty nights and cool days just for its own sake.

 

That would be more likely in a dry October. This will not be a dry October. 

[TT-SEA]

Not a lot of great patterns for snow at our locations that winter, but some very cold air. You may remember the -10 at Eugene. The massive EUG-PDX February snowstorm with the 23 degree high at PDX. LOL

 

 

Yes... I do remember the scenes from Eugene with snow on the ground and below zero weather.     Eugene completely owned my location that year for memorable winter weather.

[snow_wizard]

That would be more likely in a dry October. This will not be a dry October. 

 

Yeah...total bummer.

[snow_wizard]

1990, 1984, and 2003 showing up as analogs very consistently.  All had very noteworthy events during autumn.  I just hope we can snap out of the mild / wet regime well before November gets here.

[Brennan]

An extremely wet and stormy October/November would be nice. Copious amounts of rain, subtropical in nature, and tree toppling wind... 2006 was my type of fall.

[Deweydog]

1990, 1984, and 2003 showing up as analogs very consistently. All had very noteworthy events during autumn. I just hope we can snap out of the mild / wet regime well before November gets here.

The last couple weeks of October/first week of November 2003 was one of my favorite periods in recent history. Talk about a 500mb roller coaster...

[Jesse]

An extremely wet and stormy October/November would be nice. Copious amounts of rain, subtropical in nature, and tree toppling wind... 2006 was my type of fall.

 

Late October 2006 had a pretty good cold spell too. Definitely an awesome stretch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Late October 2006 had a pretty good cold spell too. Definitely an awesome stretch.

 

The great EUG hit 17 I believe...

[Phil]

New Euro weeklies are a toaster bath for the second half of October. Between +5 and +8 at the surface over the western 2/3rds of the country.

 

Meanwhile, November flips cold over most of the US with a few solid EPO shots down the lee of the Rockies.

[Phil]

Some of the members do retrograde the GOA vortex enough to pop a ridge just offshore, but most members keep the NPAC troughy overall.

[Jesse]

00z GFS ensembles show a spike above average over the weekend, then hug the normal line the rest of the run.

 

Certainly looks wet.  A ton of wet members.

[Jesse]

New Euro weeklies are a toaster bath for the second half of October. Between +5 and +8 at the surface over the western 2/3rds of the country.

 

Meanwhls, November flips cold over most of the US with a few solid EPO shots down the lee of the Rockies.

 

Hasn't this been the case on the Euro weeklies for months now?

[Deweydog]

New Euro weeklies are a toaster bath for the second half of October. Between +5 and +8 at the surface over the western 2/3rds of the country.

 

Meanwhls, November flips cold over most of the US with a few solid EPO shots down the lee of the Rockies.

Toaster bathing sounds dangerous.

[snow_wizard]

New Euro weeklies are a toaster bath for the second half of October. Between +5 and +8 at the surface over the western 2/3rds of the country.

 

Meanwhls, November flips cold over most of the US with a few solid EPO shots down the lee of the Rockies.

 

Terrible if that verifies.

[Phil]

Hasn't this been the case on the Euro weeklies for months now?

Yeah, bias has been ~ 2-3 degrees too warm in the west, centered over the Intermountain region.

 

Even accounting for that, both the 500mb and sfc temperatures are higher/warmer than average. Basically the GOA vortex regime begins to degrade, which throws a western ridge up as a discontinuous retrogression begins. Might put a ridge back in the GOA when it's all said and done?

[Phil]

Terrible if that verifies.

Why? Looks similar to the progression in 2010/11.

 

Didn't that winter have two blasts? One in Novemner and another in February?

[snow_wizard]

Why? Looks similar to the progression in 2010/11.

 

Didn't that winter have two blasts? One in Novemner and another in February?

 

Probably just looking at another book end winter.  Getting really old.

[Timmy Supercell]

I am betting warm and wet when all is said and done.   

 

Imagine some days like 10/17/2009... those are reasons I like west side Falls better than east side.

 

There is no such thing as a "humid" or "comfy" feeling Fall in Klamath. Doesn't exist. Aside from summer here, I wouldn't mind moving back over there for the cool seasons.

 

I admit I have my few odd ball warm days but overall Fall is a lot cooler than Hillsboro/Portland.

[TT-SEA]

WRF temp scale has been seasonally adjusted... now it looks white hot on Sunday.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_tsfc.120.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

Have I mentioned how much I hate the climate here?  I always try to make my peace with it, but I just can't for long.  This century has been horrific overall.

[Phil]

Probably just looking at another book end winter. Getting really old.

I really believe you're overthinking all this.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty warm and wet...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[snow_wizard]

Imagine some days like 10/17/2009... those are reasons I like west side Falls better than east side.

 

There is no such thing as a "humid" or "comfy" feeling Fall in Klamath. Doesn't exist. Aside from summer here, I wouldn't mind moving back over there for the cool seasons.

 

I admit I have my few odd ball warm days but overall Fall is a lot cooler than Hillsboro/Portland.

 

Are you insane?  I would give anything to be living in Central WA.  The autumns are incredible over there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have I mentioned how much I hate the climate here?  I always try to make my peace with it, but I just can't for long.  This century has been horrific overall.

My climate angst was probably a key factor in my divorce. 

[Deweydog]

WRF temp scale has been seasonally adjusted... now it looks white hot on Sunday.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_tsfc.120.0000.gif

Been a while since we've seen an excessive heat warning in October.

[Phil]

Have I mentioned how much I hate the climate here? I always try to make my peace with it, but I just can't for long. This century has been horrific overall.

You sound like me during the summer.

[Jesse]

Are you insane?  I would give anything to be living in Central WA.  The autumns are incredible over there.

 

Timmy is a different breed than you or I. But it is much more tolerable since he isn't an utter asshat about it.

[Deweydog]

Probably just looking at another book end winter. Getting really old.

Even I didn't think the weenie meltdowns would start THIS early.

[snow_wizard]

I really believe you're overthinking all this.

 

I've seen it a million times the last 25 years or so.  I would love to be proven wrong, but deep GOA troughing in October almost never yields a winter that is good in the middle.

[snow_wizard]

My climate angst was probably a key factor in my divorce. 

 

Wow.  I can believe it.

[Jesse]

Have I mentioned how much I hate the climate here?  I always try to make my peace with it, but I just can't for long.  This century has been horrific overall.

 

Take a breather man. This kind of stuff makes it really hard to take you seriously when you are excited.

[snow_wizard]

Even I didn't think the weenie meltdowns would start THIS early.

 

I just wish we could go through an October without getting into a putrid pattern.  Not really asking too much.

[Phil]

I've seen it a million times the last 25 years or so. I would love to be proven wrong, but deep GOA troughing in October almost never yields a winter that is good in the middle.

Justin seems to believe otherwise.

 

Statistically I agree it's not the best signal, but as he stated, it's not a death knell by any means.

[snow_wizard]

Take a breather man. This kind of stuff makes it really hard to take you seriously when you are excited.

 

I know, but we were on a really good course until now.  I'm still a little sour about how all of the troughing in the past few months has basically yielded nothing in the way of decently below normal temps here also.  Just irritating after over 2 years of epic torching.  I still think the remainder of this decade will have a lot of cold, but I am sick of waiting.

[Deweydog]

I just wish we could go through an October without getting into a putrid pattern. Not really asking too much.

It generally rains in October.