October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

I also think there's a good chance November features exactly the opposite pattern over the NPAC, with an early season Arctic outbreak over the US. Exactly where is TBD.

 

If true it will be another loser January.  Almost a guarantee.  If this month fails to get back on track you could well be right.

[Phil]

If true it will be another loser January. Almost a guarantee. If this month fails to get back on track you could well be right.

Why do you say that? I think January will feature the strongest NPAC and/or polar blocking of the entire cold season.

 

I could be wrong, obviously.

[snow_wizard]

Why do you say that? I think January will feature the strongest polar and/or NPAC blocking of the entire cold season.

 

I could be wrong, obviously.

 

We have never had a great January after a November Arctic blast.  That is even true in the 19th century.  We had a couple of ok Januaries, but that's about it.

 

If we could move the timing up and score a blast late this month then it's a very different story.

[Phil]

We have never had a great January after a November Arctic blast. That is even true in the 19th century. We had a couple of ok Januaries, but that's about it.

Well, the November Arctic blast could center over the Central US, or I could be wrong completely. I'm not sure about the specifics as of yet.

[snow_wizard]

Well, the November Arctic blast could center over the Central US, or I could be wrong completely. I'm not sure about the specifics as of yet.

 

That would be different I suppose.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The last week of January 1956 was not terrible. 

[Jesse]

00z GFS ensembles shifted much cooler.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just checked out October 1919 at Salem, OR and it blew my mind a little bit. Monthly Min of 32.9. 17 sub-freezing lows... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really am not buying the October panic of many on here. We are going to have a much cooler October than the last two. I see no massive torches or runs at record late 90s in sight this year. Baby steps.

[Bryant]

http://i.imgur.com/tYpbUrd.jpg

 

If we were to draw a vertical line at the dateline, one would see that on average, the forcing has dominated the Eastern Hemisphere as a whole. Lifting of air over the tropical Indian Ocean/Maritime/West Pac and sinking of air over the tropical Pacific. Classic La Nina configuration, promotion of low level easterlies over ENSO regions, etc. The location of the forcing has been fairly analogous to the mid latitude jet streak as well, keeping it confined to eastern Asia, promoting a meridonal flow vs. a zonal flow.

 

Looking at the above 200VP anomalies, this changes in the coming days, with forcing as a whole shifting to the Western Hemisphere. We'll most likely see a pause in ENSO cooling due to no coherent low level easterlies, and the NPAC vortex associated with the jet streak extension will dominate for the time being.

 

Looking ahead, may take a bit for the pattern to reverse itself once again, but the Canadian Ensemble is on the more optimistic side, supporting a return to EHem forcing near/after mid month.

[Jesse]

I just checked out October 1919 at Salem, OR and it blew my mind a little bit. Monthly Min of 32.9. 17 sub-freezing lows... 

 

Do you mean monthly average min?

 

Otherwise that doesn't make sense.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do you mean monthly average min?

 

Otherwise that doesn't make sense.

The monthly min was 19. You could easily check the historical record and figure that out!

[Bryant]

The monthly min was 19. You could easily check the historical record and figure that out!

You also easily could have stated the facts correctly... you said "Monthly Min of 32.9"

[Jesse]

The monthly min was 19. You could easily check the historical record and figure that out!

 

An average min that close to freezing in October in the Willamette Valley is pretty insane. Then of course you had the epicness just two months later.

 

I much prefer our recent Maytobers though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

An average min that close to freezing in October in the Willamette Valley is pretty insane. Then of course you had the epicness just two months later.

 

I much prefer our recent Maytobers though. 

 

Feb-Mar 1920 were pretty chilly too. Looks like Salem had 23 sub-freezing lows in February (Very dry month) and 10 sub-freezing lows in March. 1.5" of snow on the 31st of March that year too...

[Jesse]

Feb-Mar 1920 were pretty chilly too. Looks like Salem had 23 sub-freezing lows in February (Very dry month) and 10 sub-freezing lows in March. 1.5" of snow on the 31st of March that year too...

 

Salem was basically Redmond back then.

[BLI snowman]

We have never had a great January after a November Arctic blast.  That is even true in the 19th century.  We had a couple of ok Januaries, but that's about it.

 

If we could move the timing up and score a blast late this month then it's a very different story.

 

Not sure about that one. We've had a lot of really nice Januaries after November cold spells. 2007, 2004, 1979, 1971, 1960, 1956, 1947, 1922, 1912, 1901, 1897, 1888.

[ShawniganLake]

That's a fairly impressive looking Jet days 8-10 on the Euro.  Pretty possible we could see out first windstorm of the season next week. 

[MossMan]

We have never had a great January after a November Arctic blast. That is even true in the 19th century. We had a couple of ok Januaries, but that's about it.

 

If we could move the timing up and score a blast late this month then it's a very different story.

what about Nov. 2006 and Jan. 2007? Both featured Arctic fronts if I'm not mistaken? Had 17" of snow and sub freezing highs in Nov. and about 12" of snow and sub freezing highs as well in Jan.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Almost a half inch of rain overnight. I wonder if it is sunny in North Bend, WA this morning...

[TT-SEA]

Almost a half inch of rain overnight. I wonder if it is sunny in North Bend, WA this morning...

 

 

Not this morning Andrew.   

 

But we have our beautiful Sunday to remember.  

[TT-SEA]

Almost a half inch of rain overnight. I wonder if it is sunny in North Bend, WA this morning...

 

 

Although Andrew... there might be some sun today.   I see its sunny in Seattle this morning. 

 

[Phil]

Looks like +QBO analogs continue to dominate on the CPC superensemble aggregate. That's a good sign for the west, given climo for said years from November-March.

 

If this were a -QBO year, I'd have thrown in the towel, lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I found the sun at the office...
 

[Phil]

Interesting to note, if the modeling verifies over the next 7+ days, the stratPV will be the weakest in recorded history to open October in a -ENSO/+QBO year.

 

Huge departure from the last several autumns, where the stratPV would go bonkers early and fully couple with/dominate the polar tropospheric circulation.

[TT-SEA]

I found the sun at the office...

 

 

 

Nice!  

[TT-SEA]

Big westward shift again on the 12Z GFS.  

 

Here is Sunday on the 00Z run:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_144_precip_p03.gif

 

 

And the same time on the 12Z run:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_132_precip_p03.gif

[MossMan]

Big westward shift again on the 12Z GFS.

 

Here is Sunday on the 00Z run:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_144_precip_p03.gif

 

 

And the same time on the 12Z run:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_132_precip_p03.gif

Perfect! I want to get some winter prep yard work done this weekend!

[Jesse]

Really glad the Euro is still holding strong with a wet weekend. The GFS should eventually shift that way.

[TT-SEA]

Really glad the Euro is still holding strong with a wet weekend. The GFS should eventually shift that way.

 

 

Or not.

 

You don't know.   You are too consumed with your hope that Randy and Tim are always miserable because we truly enjoy the warm weather we manage to get here at times.  

 

The 00Z ECMWF actually trended much warmer and drier for Sunday.   Its shows mid to upper 70s now that day around Portland.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls01-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-Dkst_p.png

[MossMan]

Or not.

 

You don't know. You are too consumed with your hope that Randy and Tim are always miserable because we truly enjoy the warm weather we manage to get here at times.

 

The 00Z ECMWF actually trended much warmer and drier for Sunday. Its shows mid to upper 70s now that day around Portland.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls01-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-Dkst_p.png

Exactly! And today's Euro hasn't even come out yet...has it?

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... 12Z Canadian is also not aggressive with the weekend system. 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Exactly! And today's Euro hasn't even come out yet...has it?

 

No... starts coming out at 11 a.m.

[Jesse]

Getting a little sun here this morning. Felt delightfully Octoberish a bit earlier with some rain and winds moving through.

[TT-SEA]

The Canadian has actually been less aggressive all along... and now the GFS and ECMWF are following suit to some degree.    

 

The 12Z Canadian still shows ridging even next Tuesday.   There has definitely been a trend in the models to weaken and slow the progression overall.    

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif

[Farmboy]

The ongoing rivalries of some on here really crack me up.  It's funny how people deliberately try to bait each other with opposing posts....

[TT-SEA]

The ongoing rivalries of some on here really crack me up.  It's funny how people deliberately try to bait each other with opposing posts....

 

 

I mentioned a pretty big shift on the 12Z GFS.   It was significant for this weekend.    Worth mentioning and not directed at anyone.   Its an interesting and complicated pattern.  I would have also mentioned the 12Z GFS if it shifted strongly toward very stormy weather this weekend.  

 

Someone who has me on ignore responded immediately (without anyone quoting me) saying that the ECMWF was still strong with the weekend system and the GFS would shift that way... and included the smiley icon.

 

Interesting. 

 

And actually incorrect based on the 00Z ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS still pretty mild and wet in the long term... it should arrive eventually even with the noticeable delay in the mid-range.

[ShawniganLake]

No doubt the weekend has trended warmer and drier. Hopefully the stormier pattern next week holds. Could be a windstorm in there somewhere if the trough axis ends up in a good spot.

[Bryant]

I mentioned a pretty big shift on the 12Z GFS. It was significant for this weekend. Worth mentioning and not directed at anyone. Its an interesting and complicated pattern. I would have also mentioned the 12Z GFS if it shifted strongly toward very stormy weather this weekend.

 

Someone who has me on ignore responded immediately (without anyone quoting me) saying that the ECMWF was still strong with the weekend system and the GFS would shift that way... and included the smiley icon.

 

Interesting.

 

And actually incorrect based on the 00Z ECMWF.

Not the smiley!