October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

00z GFS is depicting a heavy subtropical jet during week2, stronger than anything observed last fall/winter, even rivaling the jet back in 1997/98. Hilarious.

[TT-SEA]

My photogenic memory strikes again.

Impressive.

[Jesse]

00z GFS is depicting a heavy subtropical jet during week2, stronger than anything observed last fall/winter, even rivaling the jet back in 1997/98. Hilarious.

No doubt. My sides are hurting.

[snow_wizard]

I think we can attribute the big pattern change coming (whatever it may end up being) to the upcoming major MJO shift being depicted by the GFS.  If that model is correct it will quickly return to Nina friendly territory after a brief excursion into regions 8 and 1.  The ECMWF is much less bullish with any notable MJO waves in the near future.

[Phil]

No doubt. My sides are hurting.

You don't find it at least a little bit funny?

 

Many of the ECMWF ensembles are even blasting SoCal with storminess now. Would be crazy if they were to cash in during a Niña autumn, to a greater extent than they did during the super-niño last winter.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty insane they managed 49 a couple of weeks before the Arctic outbreak that hit that year.  1949 was a pretty special year.

 

Pretty lousy for Issaquah Salmon Days attendees, though.

[Jesse]

You don't find it at least a little bit funny?

 

Many of the ECMWF ensembles are even blasting SoCal with storminess now. Would be crazy if they were to cash in during a Niña autumn, to a greater extent than they did during the super-niño last winter.

That would be pretty interesting. Why the craziness?

[snow_wizard]

Another thing I'm interested to see is whether the ECMWF will end up triumphing over the GFS and GEM  in the 5 to 8 day period.  The ECMWF has been insistent on the northern branch digging into the NW during that period while the GFS and GEM keep the warmer southern branch of the jet in control.  It's pretty obvious the GFS and GEM both think about following the ECMWF, but fall short.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty lousy for Issaquah Salmon Days attendees, though.

 

Would have been a lot of chattering teeth that year.

[snow_wizard]

You don't find it at least a little bit funny?

 

Many of the ECMWF ensembles are even blasting SoCal with storminess now. Would be crazy if they were to cash in during a Niña autumn, to a greater extent than they did during the super-niño last winter.

 

This is kind of interesting.  No question things will snap to a Nina configuration a bit later assuming anything like this actually happens.

[Phil]

That would be pretty interesting. Why the craziness?

I'd say a combination of intreasonal forcing out of the Pacific/WHEM, a cool/dormant Indian Ocean, and an ongoing reversal in the Pacific Walker/Hadley Cell intensity ratio.

 

In other words, probably short term craziness as opposed to something more significant. Might still have to watch to see if the weak Niña background state becomes perturbed, however. The background state that's dominated since July probably wasn't going to survive as-is anyway. Either the IO will cave, or the WPAC will cave, IMO.

[snow_wizard]

I'd say a combination of intreasonal forcing out of the Pacific/WHEM, a cool/dormant Indian Ocean, and an ongoing reversal in the Pacific Walker/Hadley Cell intensity ratio.

 

In other words, probably short term craziness as opposed to something more significant. Might still have to watch to see if the weak Niña background state becomes perturbed, however. The background state that's dominated since July probably wasn't going to survive as-is anyway. Either the IO will cave, or the WPAC will cave, IMO.

 

The IOD is still extremely low for this time of year.  -0.70 on the update today.

[Phil]

The IOD is still extremely low for this time of year. -0.70 on the update today.

Yeah, and that would typically provide an assist to the Niña background state. Problem is, the entire IO is frigid, due to an equatorward bias to the climatological high down there. So, convection becoming limited overall across the IO, even into the western Maritime domain.

 

Given this, I wonder if the anomalously "west based" Niña cell we've observed since July, will in fact be forced to reshuffle into something more central/east based, and perhaps the changes we're observing now are actually the beginning of this transition process?

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a chilly dip beginning to show up on the ensemble around the 11th now.  You can also see a number of members take more of an ECMWF type path later this week.

 

[Deweydog]

So close. Something tells me there will be a murky warm frontal type of day at some point in the work week that will do it.

Running out of chances. It'll be May before you know it.

[Deweydog]

D**n, Gina. That is some steroidal at 240 hours.

[BLI snowman]

D**n, Gina. That is some steroidal s**t at 240 hours.

 

Destroyer of blobs.

[Deweydog]

Destroyer of blobs.

Lately I've been hearing we want the blob. So hard to know how to feel.

[Phil]

D**n, Gina. That is some steroidal s**t at 240 hours.

La Niño.

[BLI snowman]

Lately I've been hearing we want the blob. So hard to know how to feel.

 

In a few decades we'll all be reminiscing about the frigid 2014-16 period anyways. 1/3/2016 will be the stuff of legend.

[Phil]

New ECMWF monthlies are out. Very different look compared to recent years.

 

High latitude blocking everywhere. Monster -NAO block seems to dominate the western hemispheric mid latitudes, with a weaker secondary block over the GOA/EPO domain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE ended up with a -6 departure yesterday. None to shabby. 

[Jesse]

Running out of chances. It'll be May before you know it.

An inverse point could be made when you're drooling over our first chance of 80s in April.

[Kayla]

Running out of chances. It'll be May before you know it.

 

Should be easy peasy today. 58º.

[Kayla]

There has been plenty of talk of October temperature anomalies correlating with the following winter, but what about rainfall?

 

This first week of October is looking increasingly wet which is unusual for early October. Any correlation of wet Octobers and the following winters?

[TT-SEA]

System over the weekend is trending westward... the 12Z GFS is pretty much dry from Friday - Sunday now.

 

Here is Saturday afternoon...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_132_precip_p03.gif

 

Here is Sunday:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_156_precip_p03.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Moist.

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_RAIN_NWOREGON.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Even towards the middle of next week... most of the action is spinning offshore.   

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_204_precip_p03.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There has been plenty of talk of October temperature anomalies correlating with the following winter, but what about rainfall?

 

This first week of October is looking increasingly wet which is unusual for early October. Any correlation of wet Octobers and the following winters?

 

At my location October-December 2012 were incredibly wet. 2013 started off much drier. 

[TT-SEA]

Moist.

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_RAIN_NWOREGON.jpg

 

That's what she said.  

 

Actually...the system this evening through Wednesday looks like it will focus on the coast and SW WA and OR like the system over the weekend.    Hence the high totals down there.  

 

The track is very similar.

[Jesse]

At my location October-December 2012 were incredibly wet. 2013 started off much drier.

October 2012 was very dry until mid-month. She was asking about early October specifically.

[luminen]

It was snowing in Whitehorse, YT this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

At my location October-December 2012 were incredibly wet. 2013 started off much drier. 

 

 

Barely a drop of rain even at my house from July 2012 through October 12, 2012.

 

And then the faucet turned on and it rained almost every day for the rest of the year.

 

An extremely unusual situation.   Not like this year at all.   We have had several significant rain events already.

[Front Ranger]

La Niño.

Southern jet vs northern jet.

[Kayla]

October 2012 was very dry until mid-month. She was asking about early October specifically.

 

Yeah that's what I'm curious about. It seems rather unusual for the region to see 1-3" of rainfall in just the first week of October when normally the rainy season doesn't get going until at least the second half of October. 

[BLI snowman]

There has been plenty of talk of October temperature anomalies correlating with the following winter, but what about rainfall?

 

This first week of October is looking increasingly wet which is unusual for early October. Any correlation of wet Octobers and the following winters?

 

The first week of October can be pretty wet. We've had some pretty good rain events in that timeframe.

 

I always like to see a more dynamic northern branch of the jet stream in October (and November). Generally a sign that polar air will be on the move a little more readily. A stable ridging regime this time of year isn't a great sign (1952, 1976). That being said, we've had some pretty wet Octobers precede terrible winters, like 2012 and 1943. 

[Jesse]

Just realized how gross the weekend looks on the 12z GFS. Hoping that's an outlier.

[stuffradio]

Just realized how gross the weekend looks on the 12z GFS. Hoping that's an outlier.

You're right. Rain half of the weekend. Ugh

[BLI snowman]

Just realized how gross the weekend looks on the 12z GFS. Hoping that's an outlier.

 

Climo says we're almost certain to see ~75 degree weather at some point in October. Just gonna have to deal with it. 

[Front Ranger]

Just realized how gross the weekend looks on the 12z GFS. Hoping that's an outlier.

You didn't notice all of Tim's posts on the 12z? Highly correlates to runs you won't like.