October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

Timmy is a different breed than you or I. But it is much more tolerable since he isn't an utter asshat about it.

 

I enjoy Indian summers. Don't get me wrong. The days where freezing fog occurs before an 80+ degree high I'm sure anyone enjoys. Just getting to the point that I tend to go for more temperate weather in the cool seasons. I used to like snow but prefer the 50-60 degree rain over that stuff. I can't afford a car and walk to wherever I need to go.

[Jesse]

I know, but we were on a really good course until now.  I'm still a little sour about how all of the troughing in the past few months has basically yielded nothing in the way of decently below normal temps here also.  Just irritating after over 2 years of epic torching.  I still think the remainder of this decade will have a lot of cold, but I am sick of waiting.

 

Trust me, I completely get it.

[snow_wizard]

Justin seems to believe otherwise.

 

Statistically I agree it's not a good signal, but it's not a death knell by any means.

 

We'll see, but I think a cold November after the a GOA trough dominated October is bad news.  On the other hand if the pattern were to remain mild through November we could still be on for something great.

[snow_wizard]

It generally rains in October.

 

But there are usually some cold days with frosty nights also.  Right now it appears much of this month could end up like last October. 

[Phil]

We'll see, but I think a cold November after the a GOA trough dominated October is bad news. On the other hand if the pattern were to remain mild through November we could still be on for something great.

That's quite an interesting forecasting methodology.

[Deweydog]

But there are usually some cold days with frosty nights also. Right now it appears much of this month could end up like last October.

It's the 4th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's the 4th.

 

The warmest October on record? lol

 

But there are usually some cold days with frosty nights also.  Right now it appears much of this month could end up like last October. 

[Phil]

Just for the record, my comment on the weeklies wasn't an endorsement. They flip around quite a bit in the long range.

 

In hindsight, I probably shouldn't have posted about them.

[snow_wizard]

That's quite an interesting forecasting methodology.

 

Experience and lots of study.

[snow_wizard]

The warmest October on record? lol

 

WTF not?  Maybe we can just go on having top 5 warm Octobers for the next 10 years.  That way what used to be our two best months IMO would both be shot to hell.

[Phil]

WTF not? Maybe we can just go on having top 5 warm Octobers for the next 10 years. That way what used to be our two best months IMO would both be shot to hell.

Yikes, man. You're putting SilverFallsAndrew's meltdown to shame.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yikes, man. You're putting SilverFallsAndrew's meltdown to shame.

 

Yeah. Now look who is cool and collected...

[Phil]

Yeah. Now look who is cool and collected...

Zing!

[snow_wizard]

Yikes, man. You're putting SilverFallsAndrew's meltdown to shame.

 

I do have some epic ones.  I've earned the right after watching this climate decline over the past 40 years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WTF not?  Maybe we can just go on having top 5 warm Octobers for the next 10 years.  That way what used to be our two best months IMO would both be shot to hell.

 

Yeah what I am saying is you are comparing this year to an extremely warm October. Last October was +5.8 at SLE. Insanely warm. There were only 3 days in the entire month with a negative departure, the greatest negative departure was -3. SLE has already had a -4 and -6 departure this month. Every day so far this month has been at least -7 for a day max. We may have mild nights, but I do not see an average max of 69.7 like last year. Just throwing out some perspective. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Then of course there was October 2014. SLE had 0 negative departure days that month...

[BLI snowman]

Thinking we might not ultimately see a great pattern for snow/cold this month.

[ShawniganLake]

We knew last year was going to suck. I see a 2011-12 or 2010-11 as kind of a best case scenario for this winter. 

2010-11 was pretty decent up here.  If that January event had of come through, it would have been very good overall. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2010-11 was pretty decent up here.  If that January event had of come through, it would have been very good overall. 

 

Yeah I was not trying to downplay our chances. Just saying it will probably be an average to decent winter. 

[BLI snowman]

00z Euro also shows a Matthew loop. Getting weird.

[Timmy Supercell]

2010-11 was pretty decent up here.  If that January event had of come through, it would have been very good overall. 

 

A couple stations here recorded 40-48 inches during 2010-2011 winter in Klamath Falls (10-30% over normal).

 

I would say that winter performed better than others in this region.

[ShawniganLake]

A couple stations here recorded 40-48 inches during 2010-2011 winter in Klamath Falls (10-30% over normal).

 

I would say that winter performed better than others in this region.

44" here.  Roughly 150% of normal. 

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah I was not trying to downplay our chances. Just saying it will probably be an average to decent winter.

I agree, assuming we can avoid a 2005-06 type show. The one wild card is that in recent decades, since January went for , our biggest events have come in neutral or weak cold ENSO. December 1990, December 1996, December 2008.

[TT-SEA]

00z Euro also shows a Matthew loop. Getting weird.

 

 

At least it does not show the second landfall... and in fact curves away from the coast sooner which would be good news for GA and SC.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.44" of rain overnight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS continues to show tons of rain in the long range. 

[snow_wizard]

It is rather interesting to note the CFS now shows WA having a cold January and February.  I am refering to the composite which uses an average of many runs of the model.  That represents a huge change from a few weeks ago.  It's also intriguing that it indicates Siberia having normal temps this winter instead of the massive positive anoms it has favored for that area over the past several winters.  Could be a sign the overall regime has shifted in some way.

 

As for my tirade last night...I had a vision of how I wanted this month to go, and it isn't going to happen.  Doesn't mean we still can't have a very good winter.

[snow_wizard]

You probably care way too much about what will only be a couple weeks of cold air and possible snow either way.   And you will not know anything until the time arrives anyways... no matter how much you try to line it up now.  

 

But you already know all of that.  

 

I know that cold Octobers with cold ENSO gives us a better chance.  No doubt there are exceptions though like 1988 and 1942.  I know you want some cold snowy weather this winter also.  Some winters have a lot more than the two weeks you always toss out there.  We're due for a huge winter, but obviously it's hard to know when that will happen.

 

We also have quite a few winters where we get one huge event and a bunch of smaller cold snaps / small snows to go around it.  That is enjoyable too.

[TT-SEA]

ULL landfall has just occurred in Astoria per the coastal radar loop.

 

The eye of the storm is about to pass over the city.

 

Any damage reports Matt?

[TT-SEA]

I know that cold Octobers with cold ENSO gives us a better chance.  No doubt there are exceptions though like 1988 and 1942.  I know you want some cold snowy weather this winter also.  Some winters have a lot more than the two weeks you always toss out there.  We're due for a huge winter, but obviously it's hard to know when that will happen.

 

We also have quite a few winters where we get one huge event and a bunch of smaller cold snaps / small snows to go around it.  That is enjoyable too.

 

 

By the way... I still like the 1942 analog.    

 

Although that year only had a one really good week of real cold and snow.    But it was in January!  

[Jesse]

It's quite a shame having the radar down during this active wet period. I feel like I have lost one of my eyes!

[Front Ranger]

At least it does not show the second landfall... and in fact curves away from the coast sooner which would be good news for GA and SC.

 

Several people from my company who were flying in to Charleston, SC for a conference ended up staying the night in Charlotte and are coming back, as Charleston is being evacuated and the conference cancelled.

[Phil]

I know that cold Octobers with cold ENSO gives us a better chance. No doubt there are exceptions though like 1988 and 1942. I know you want some cold snowy weather this winter also. Some winters have a lot more than the two weeks you always toss out there. We're due for a huge winter, but obviously it's hard to know when that will happen.

 

We also have quite a few winters where we get one huge event and a bunch of smaller cold snaps / small snows to go around it. That is enjoyable too.

There's more than just those two (1942, 1988). Years like 2010/11 and 2013/14 had some October ridging/warmth.

 

October 2010 is an exceptional match this far. You guys *almost* scored huge that January..pattern was just a tad too zonal but small tweaks and it would've been an amazing January snowfall event bookended by two separate Arctic blasts, one in November and the other in February.

 

I'm not worried at all. You guys will do fine, while I sit under a SE ridge, watching jealously.

[TT-SEA]

Several people from my company who were flying in to Charleston, SC for a conference ended up staying the night in Charlotte and are coming back, as Charleston is being evacuated and the conference cancelled.

 

Flooding and storm surge probably the biggest problem there... wind might not be the big issue.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_081_precip_p03.gif

[Jesse]

It's too bad that piece of northern branch energy that gets hung up over SW BC this weekend couldn't dig all the way down. Would definitely be a chance of frost with that airmass!

[GobBluth]

Flooding and storm surge probably the biggest problem there... wind might not be the big issue.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_081_precip_p03.gif

the 12z keep the loop idea, but moves it through Florida into the Gulf - assuming it survives the land interaction, with all that warm water, sounds like a potential nightmare.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks a little wet the next couple of weeks.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100512/gfs_apcpn_nwus_52.png

[ShawniganLake]

The system late Thursday and Friday morning is looking a little more robust on this mornings modelling.  ~995mb.  Should see several hours of moderate to heavy rain most places.  I would bet we will see our first wind warnings of the season for many places in SW BC.  Most likely for east and west Vancouver Island and Sunshine Coast.  But possibly also Greater Victoria and Vancouver. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks a little wet the next couple of weeks.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100512/gfs_apcpn_nwus_52.png

 

At face value this shows about 10" for my location. I seriously doubt it, but I did have about 12" of rain in October 2012. 

 

Nice soaking rains into N. California which would be good if it verified. 

[snow_wizard]

It's too bad that piece of northern branch energy that gets hung up over SW BC this weekend couldn't dig all the way down. Would definitely be a chance of frost with that airmass!

 

Indeed.  In the winter that upper level configuration would hammer SW BC with insane snowfall.  Nice to be seeing stuff like that this time of year.