October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro takes the edge off the weekend warmth a little more. Actually shows some coolish air making it into northern Washington.

 

Jet seems nice and suppressed overall on this run. Even Northern California could get in on the rain action next week. A far cry from the 594dm heights of the October 2003 pattern.

Am I missing the Pineapple Express?

[snow_wizard]

More and more signal showing for a block over Eastern Siberia or the Bering Strait in the 6 to 10 day period.  That keeps things a bit cooler than earlier runs had advertised.  In fact the Euro shows 850s below 5C at times during that period over Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

64 and partly sunny here... nice day.

[Jesse]

More and more signal showing for a block over Eastern Siberia or the Bering Strait in the 6 to 10 day period.  That keeps things a bit cooler than earlier runs had advertised.  In fact the Euro shows 850s below 5C at times during that period over Seattle.

 

Yup, I've been noticing a tendency for the high that cuts off toward the arctic next week to drift westward and set up near the Bering Sea on some runs. Definitely gives a cooler look to things.

[snow_wizard]

WTF...SEA is 58 while Friday Harbor is 67.  You don't see that too often.  No idea how Friday Harbor could be that warm.

[snow_wizard]

Yup, I've been noticing a tendency for the high that cuts off toward the arctic next week to drift westward and set up near the Bering Sea on some runs. Definitely gives a cooler look to things.

 

Now that I've accepted where things are going I feel much better today. 

[TT-SEA]

WTF...SEA is 58 while Friday Harbor is 67.  You don't see that too often.  No idea how Friday Harbor could be that warm.

 

 

66 here now.

 

60 at SEA... but I see 64 at UW.

 

[MossMan]

Nice day up here! Partly sunny and it feels fairly mild out. Calm winds.

[Bryant]

Hard to see that not happening at this point.

It's the 5th

[Deweydog]

ULL landfall has just occurred in Astoria per the coastal radar loop.

 

The eye of the storm is about to pass over the city.

 

Any damage reports Matt?

No reports of damage but KAST shot into the low 80's after landfall.

[snow_wizard]

No reports of damage but KAST shot into the low 80's after landfall.

 

Wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[snow_wizard]

It's the 5th

 

I actually do have some hope the final third could be rather chilly.  Pretty hard to ignore some of the current analogs that had very cold finishes to the month of October.

[Kayla]

FYI: Portland's RTX radar seems to have just come back online... Happy to see it back a day ahead of schedule!

[Jesse]

FYI: Portland's RTX radar seems to have just come back online... Happy to see it back a day ahead of schedule!

 

Nice!

[Kayla]

Sunday should be a lock for 75+. That with probably a 58 degree low and some tasty 62 degree dewpoints. 

 

Bold to bet against the EPS these days. 12z EPS only tops out at 69 on Saturday and 68 on Sunday.

 

The weekend "warm spell" continues to be watered down in recent runs.

[TT-SEA]

Perfect October day... love when systems roll through OR.   

 

[BLI snowman]

Bold to bet against the EPS these days. 12z EPS only tops out at 69 on Saturday and 68 on Sunday.

 

The weekend "warm spell" continues to be watered down in recent runs.

 

No reason for Sunday to be cooler than Saturday at this point. I'd feel very comfortable in discounting that.

[Jesse]

No reason for Sunday to be cooler than Saturday at this point. I'd feel very comfortable in discounting that.

 

80 Sunday?

[Phil]

The 12z EPS is hinting at a pattern change towards the end of week 2. Starts to weaken/retrograde the GOA vortex, similar to how the weeklies do.

[Jesse]

The 12z EPS is hinting at a pattern change towards the end of week 2. Starts to weaken/retrograde the GOA vortex, similar to how the weeklies do.

 

Toaster bath incoming?

[Phil]

Toaster bath incoming?

During the transition maybe. Would occur between the 20th and the 30th, should it happen.

[TT-SEA]

SEA jumped to 65 at 4 p.m.

 

Above normal on the low and the high... not bad for being deep in a trough.

[Deweydog]

SEA jumped to 65 at 4 p.m.

 

Above normal on the low and the high... not bad for being deep in a trough.

Jimtastic!

[TT-SEA]

Jimtastic!

 

 

I do like stealing nice days that did not look so nice in the models.     

[snow_wizard]

SEA jumped to 65 at 4 p.m.

 

Above normal on the low and the high... not bad for being deep in a trough.

 

65 is hardly any big deal this time of year.  The flip side is it now appears we will have some clearing tonight.  We'll have to see on that of course.

[snow_wizard]

Jimtastic!

 

Isn't it just grand?

[Jesse]

65 is hardly any big deal this time of year. The flip side is it now appears we will have some clearing tonight. We'll have to see on that of course.

You just gave him something new to track and happily report on the morning if it doesn't work out.

[luminen]

Forecast to get 3.31" of rain through Sunday. We'll see...but I'm guessing it'll be less than that.

[TT-SEA]

65 is hardly any big deal this time of year.  The flip side is it now appears we will have some clearing tonight.  We'll have to see on that of course.

 

 

Not saying its a big deal... not expecting significant warmth under a big trough.     It was nice to be above normal and sunny with this pattern:

 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-lyowt8.png

 

 

Should cloud up again overnight.

 

Here is tomorrow morning per the WRF:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.24.0000.gif

[Deweydog]

Not saying its a big deal... not expecting significant warmth under a big trough. It was nice to be above normal and sunny with this pattern:

 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-lyowt8.png

 

 

Should cloud up again overnight.

 

Here is tomorrow morning per the WRF:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.24.0000.gif

Climate shocker!

[TT-SEA]

Climate shocker!

 

 

Utterly amazing.  

[Trainwreck]

Not saying its a big deal... not expecting significant warmth under a big trough. It was nice to be above normal and sunny with this pattern:

 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-lyowt8.png

 

 

Should cloud up again overnight.

 

Here is tomorrow morning per the WRF:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.24.0000.gif

So strange. What a life you must lead. To bask in someone else's misery is a little psychotic.

 

Hey Jim post something about cold anomalies, I'll bet Timboy will be fast to try and ill conceive it.

[Jesse]

Funny to act surprised about today being a little mild simply because we are under a 500mb trough. Surface details count for a lot. Of course the scumbag playing dumb about this knows that, though.

[TT-SEA]

So strange. What a life you must lead. To bask in someone else's misery is a little psychotic.

 

Hey Jim post something about cold anomalies, I'll bet Timboy will be fast to try and ill conceive it.

 

Not at all.  

 

When its cold... its cold.    It was not cold today.    

 

I doubt Jim was miserable today... it was a really nice October day.   

[TT-SEA]

Funny to act surprised about today being a little mild simply because we are under a 500mb trough. Surface details count for a lot. Of course the scumbag posting about this knows that, though.

No sh*t.

 

And its nice when the surface details work out in our favor.

 

Today was nice... that is all. Jim probably agrees.

 

Is it a surprise when people post about the weather they like?

 

You post all the time on 'crappy' days about liking the weather. Are you trying to just be a "psychotic piece of sh*t" because some people don't like it or do you like the weather?? In your case its both unfortunately.

[BLI snowman]

Productive discussion tonight fellas.

[Jesse]

Productive discussion tonight fellas.

Any new thoughts on how warm and humid it will be Sunday?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meanwhile while people were basking in warm sunshine I had a 54/48 day with 0.99" of rain. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Live look out there fellas

 

On the way home earlier, looking toward my house...

 

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile while people were basking in warm sunshine I had a 54/48 day with 0.99" of rain. 

 

 

Are you posting that just to anger me??!!

 

Only talk about what I like or you are just being a jerk.  

 

Jim and I get along perfectly fine without hearing from Jesse.   

 

(I like the weather pics by the way)