snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Very decent model runs tonight. All of the mesoscale models show at least some snow. Weatherbell has an ECMWF WRF for when things get closer. Pretty surprising to see the ECMWF surface maps going for highs around freezing on three days for Seattle. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 IDK. I feel like this is a really common forecast model myth. As much as we'd like to believe it, the fact the models may appear to have trended colder does not make them more likely to continue getting colder IMO. If anything, it shows how close a pattern is to not being as cold (since previous runs showed that.)Valid points but I just feel in this particular situation the models are underestimating how far South the Arctic air drops. Day 7 and 8 of tonight's EURO illustrate this perfectly with how big the trough is encompassing the entire Western US and how it digs to Mexico. If we just saw these maps and nothing else we would definitely be thinking we would be getting an Arctic Blast. Also a nice SE Ridge starts to develop. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/168/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/192/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Another comment I wanted to make about the stat showing Portland will go for 300+ days without a freeze. The previous record was in 1983 and as we all know Dec 1983 through Dec 1985 was a very cold period...in fact there has not been a colder two year run since. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Valid points but I just feel in this particular situation the models are underestimating how far South the Arctic air drops. Day 7 and 8 of tonight's EURO illustrate this perfectly with how big the trough is encompassing the entire Western US and how it digs to Mexico. I really like the ULL to our east. Nice insurance that some cold air will be forced in over us. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I'm loving some of the analogs. Another one popping up a lot is 1971..another December that had warning shots before something great in January. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Valid points but I just feel in this particular situation the models are underestimating how far South the Arctic air drops. Day 7 and 8 of tonight's EURO illustrate this perfectly with how big the trough is encompassing the entire Western US and how it digs to Mexico. If we just saw these maps and nothing else we would definitely be thinking we would be getting an Arctic Blast. Also a nice SE Ridge starts to develop. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/168/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/192/500h_anom.na.pngI agree there is potential for models to turn colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I just calculated my freeze free period was 234 days here this year. Very abnormal. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Few days of cold and snow, I'll take it!! Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold front Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I don't think Portland has been in the 30's yet. Not sure though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I don't think Portland has been in the 30's yet. Not sure though I think Seattle has had a couple. They have also had some highs in the 40s. Looks like everyone will see a freeze next week though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I think Seattle has had a couple. They have also had some highs in the 40s. Looks like everyone will see a freeze next week though.PDX saw 39 on the 17th and 18th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Valid points but I just feel in this particular situation the models are underestimating how far South the Arctic air drops. Day 7 and 8 of tonight's EURO illustrate this perfectly with how big the trough is encompassing the entire Western US and how it digs to Mexico. If we just saw these maps and nothing else we would definitely be thinking we would be getting an Arctic Blast. Also a nice SE Ridge starts to develop. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/168/500h_anom.na.png Don't really agree with your line of thinking. Take the 500mb configuration currently for example. You'd think 850's would be tanked right? Nope http://i.imgur.com/cYPzvJ8.png http://i.imgur.com/UQoN8W0.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Don't really agree with your line of thinking. Take the 500mb configuration currently for example. You'd think 850's would be tanked right? Nope 500mb heights are a surprisingly poor predictor of surface temperatures. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 500mb heights are a surprisingly poor predictor of surface temperatures.Exactly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 00z EPS quite a bit colder than 12z http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112900/ecmwf-ens_T850a_wus_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Anyone awake for 6z? I wasn't going to be, but my knee hurts like hell no chance of sleeping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I'm up DJ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I guess it's just the two of us. Alright, lets hope for something comparable to the 00z GFS/ECMWF, but if it's better I won't mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I'm kind of in a neutral state right now.. Yesterday I was optimistic models would improve today.. and it could go either way from here. Really hoping for the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 6z Day 3 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112906/072/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I'm kind of in a neutral state right now.. Yesterday I was optimistic models would improve today.. and it could go either way from here. Really hoping for the better.Oh yeah, just because we have tonight's set of runs and ensembles showing good improvement it doesn't mean things won't turn unfavorable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 6z identical to 0z through day 3. I'm interested to see at which point things start to diverge. The next couple days should give us a good idea which direction we're going in the mid-long range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 HR 84 .... Trough digging a bit more sharply into southwestern US, cutting off. Southeast US ridge building more quickly. Aleutian ridge 1mb stronger http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112906/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Day 4 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112906/096/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 HR 96 Biggest difference from 00z is the trough is cutting off further back into Baja, may promote a strong SE ridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 HR 96 Biggest difference from 00z is the trough is cutting off further back into Baja, may promote a strong SE ridge.Hardly noticeable difference but I guess small changes over several days can make a difference, especially when talking about patterns affecting this region! Not sure it will this round though. Edit: not sure what to think at day 5. I think trying to analyze the models on a tiny phone screen at work is making me go nuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Day 5 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112906/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Hardly noticeable difference but I guess small changes over several days can make a difference, especially when talking about patterns affecting this region! Not sure it will this round though.Yeah, they are minor differences, but the overall 500mb pattern from the Aleutians to the southeast US those slight changes increase after HR 120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Ridge might be slightly less amplified from 00z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Heights/ridge a bit weaker over plains from 00z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Comparing 0z to 6z... timing moved up ever so slightly.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I don't think this run is as good as 00z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I don't think this run is as good as 00zThey are VERY similar up to this point. Still waiting for the two runs to really diverge... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 00z was digging the cold trough quite a bit further west than 6z. That's not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Digs back a bit more around day 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 00z was digging the cold trough quite a bit further west than 6z. That's not good.Yeah it's not quite as cold... not a trend, just slight difference at this point. Does dig slightly further west at day 7... little bit sharper too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112906/gfs_T850_nwus_29.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Yeah it's not quite as cold... not a trend, just slight difference at this point.Block was just a bit less amplified and that's it. Yeah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Slight differences. Thursday we will be happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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