SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 It better be running by 1 PM. I have to leave at 2 PM to my surgeon for another evaluation.....Having some Hadley Cells removed? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Having some Hadley Cells removed?Somethin' like that. Had a bone scan on my knee 2 months ago and revealed it is inflamed and damaged. What's left of my meniscus is just slipping and flapping around. 4 surgeries on it already. I have a specialized fancy unloader brace(real expensive!) they specifically had fitted for my knee which really only is designed to delay the next operation. It is supposed to pull the joint apart creating a "cushion" of sorts since I really have no meniscus or cartilage left. It is supposed to take pressure off it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 12z GFS run still on the warmer side of the ensemble mean for next week. LR mean creeps up, but still shows potential. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.pngLove that one member...botttoms out at -15. Yes please!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Somethin' like that. Had a bone scan on my knee 2 months ago and revealed it is inflamed and damaged. What's left of my meniscus is just slipping and flapping around. 4 surgeries on it already. I have a specialized fancy unloader brace(real expensive!) they specifically had fitted for my knee which really only is designed to delay the next operation. It is supposed to pull the joint apart creating a "cushion" of sorts since I really have no meniscus or cartilage left. It is supposed to take pressure off it.Sounds painful. Some real cold air would help ice that knee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Somethin' like that. Had a bone scan on my knee 2 months ago and revealed it is inflamed and damaged. What's left of my meniscus is just slipping and flapping around. 4 surgeries on it already. I have a specialized fancy unloader brace(real expensive!) they specifically had fitted for my knee which really only is designed to delay the next operation. It is supposed to pull the joint apart creating a "cushion" of sorts since I really have no meniscus or cartilage left. It is supposed to take pressure off it. My brother blew both his meniscus, playing catcher in high school. He had surgery to repair one and said the surgery had a net positive effect of zero, so he never got the 2nd surgery done. He says the knee he had "repaired" is worse than the one he never had surgery on. I wish you luck. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 My brother blew both his meniscus, playing catcher in high school. He had surgery to repair one and said the surgery had a net positive effect of zero, so he never got the 2nd surgery done. He says the knee he had "repaired" is worse than the one he never had surgery on. I wish you luck. I'm also wondering if the multiple surgeries has just been a waste of time and of no benefit, or just temporary band-aids. Thanks. Since 7th grade I've hadOsgood Schlatter's DiseasePatella Femoral SyndromeOsteochondritisDeterioration of cartilage. I've had 7 pins put in it, cartilage repaired, bone repaired, and meniscus cleaned out/repaired twice. I imagine a total replacement is the only option for me. As long as I can still get out to go brown trout fishing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 My brother blew both his meniscus, playing catcher in high school. He had surgery to repair one and said the surgery had a net positive effect of zero, so he never got the 2nd surgery done. He says the knee he had "repaired" is worse than the one he never had surgery on. I wish you luck.Jeeze dude. Way to be positive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 We are getting into the range where the GFS usually has a warm bias, FWIW. Maybe Michael J. is onto something. Euro will be telling. Been more Jim Carrey than Michael J. Fox recently. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 I'm going to say it again. December looks moist. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Per Ryan Maue via Twitter: Supercomputers in Reading at ECMWF suffered a power outage and will take a while (2 hours) to boot up. 12z products may be delayed Less wait time between the 12z and 0z. I'll take it! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Could be a hood canal special. Perfect set up next week to get buried there. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Credit for this graphic goes to twitter handle @griteater. October/November average AAM anomaly was the 6th highest on record since 1958. There aren't many -ENSO/+QBO analogs featuring a positive anomaly, save 1985/86, 1980/81, 1959/60, and 1995/96. Probably mainly due to the fact we're following a Super Nino with a barely Nina. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Jeeze dude. Way to be positive. Wasn't meant as a negative. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Probably mainly due to the fact we're following a Super Nino with a barely Nina.Tell that to 1983/84. Or 1966/67. Both had lower AAM anomalies following super niños. This is different, IMO. We're probably not done with NPAC troughing/+EPO bursts, either. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Wasn't meant as a negative. I knew you weren't. Appreciate it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 The JMA http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_T850_wus_6.png 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Teleconnection Indices forecast-PNA tanks big time! http://i.imgur.com/6kaJzRN.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 I have not said much on this whole warning shot but it looks very good for us next week imo. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 The JMA http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_T850_wus_6.png Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 The JMA http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_T850_wus_6.pngReally kind of surprised it's this cold because it has a Kona low and progression is somewhat similar to the 12z GFS However, the difference on the JMA is very obvious. The block is more upright and notice it even tilts ---> into Yukon very favorably giving the arctic trough a bit of a kick or nudge digging it further southward towards/over us. That is a key thing and if we somehow saw future GFS/ECMWF runs show that we'd be in real business. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_z500_mslp_npac_4.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_z500a_npac_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 This Monday morning thing...I am intrigued. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Really kind of surprised it's this cold because it has a Kona low and progression is somewhat similar to the 12z GFS However, the difference on the JMA is very obvious. The block is more upright and notice it even tilts ---> into Yukon very favorably giving the arctic trough a bit of a kick or nudge digging it further southward towards/over us. That is a key thing and if we somehow saw future GFS/ECMWF runs show that we'd be in real business. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_z500_mslp_npac_4.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_z500a_npac_6.pngHow reliable is the Nakamura model? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Everything depends on how these lows track down the coast. Onshore flow = rain in most cases unless the cold air is already entrenched. The over-running event looks marginal at best. The cold will be gone quick. Poof! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Mark Nelsen weighed in about an hour ago with his thoughts. He says this looks like a one shot deal (Mon-Wed/TH). Said a solid trend of warming up the trough, but the Monday morning system makes the forecast tough. I can say I think 2-4" of snow is probably a good idea for my location Monday... We'll see. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 This Monday morning thing...I am intrigued. You should be more than intrigued. Your location is going to do really great during that timeframe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 How reliable is the Nakamura model?It correctly predicted the 2011 tsunami 10 days out. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Everything depends on how these lows track down the coast. Onshore flow = rain in most cases unless the cold air is already entrenched. The over-running event looks marginal at best. The cold will be gone quick. Poof!Well yes for your area! when did it last snow there? November 1985?? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Well yes for your area! when did it last snow there? November 1985??Puyallup only gets snow once every 299 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Mark Nelsen weighed in about an hour ago with his thoughts. He says this looks like a one shot deal (Mon-Wed/TH). Said a solid trend of warming up the trough, but the Monday morning system makes the forecast tough. I can say I think 2-4" of snow is probably a good idea for my location Monday... We'll see. Very fair analysis by him and this will be a very short-lived marginal event. Yes, there will (might) be snow but blink and it will be gone. Pretty typical type of PNW event overall but much better than the last few years. SO, yes, a mini warning shot. As far as the overrunning event my guess is the cold air just will not be thick enough for it to snow very long and it is possible freezing rain may be fairly wide spread up here. Unless something drastically changes in the models I think many may have way to high expectations for the snow to rain transition which to me looks like a quick one. I have high hopes for an arctic miracle though!! LIKE not turning into an instant slop fest and actually being something we can enjoy for than a few hours ... BUT at least it is going to snow. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Puyallup only gets snow once every 299 years.297.3 years.... Cmon!!! At least be accurate. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Raining all morning in Marion County this morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 The Euro situation has really thrown my entire day off. Not sure if I will survive today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Does the Euro situation mean the cold air will be delayed three hours too? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 The Euro situation has really thrown my entire day off. Not sure if I will survive today.I bet there is a spy from the British government on here and they saw us getting all worked up, and decided to f with us. I would do it if I were them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Chilly day at the top of the West Hills today. Only 40º here as I approach the noon hour after a morning low of 36º. Nice way to start out December. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Block looks sturdier, stubborner and snobbier. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 ECMWF... mmmm the initial low is way south on Sunday. Previous run Current run Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Tell that to 1983/84. Or 1966/67. Both had lower AAM anomalies following super niños. This is different, IMO. We're probably not done with NPAC troughing/+EPO bursts, either. I wouldn't consider 1965-66 to be a super Nino. Certainly not close to the level of 2015-16. And yeah, I'm sure there will be more +EPO this winter. Looks D**n blocky in the North Pacific for now, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 1, 2016 Report Share Posted December 1, 2016 Block looks sturdier, stubborner and snobbier. Was just going to say, Euro is looking great. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.