Phil Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Wasn't a cache issue, and just because one said the 6th and one said the 7th doesn't make them 24 hrs apart. I think just a time stamp issue on the map. The 144 hour ensemble mean for the 18z GFS should only be 3 hours behind 144 hr for 12z Euro, right? Either way, you can see the general progression of the ensemble mean for both models is quite different. Much like the operationals were quite different.Look at the day/date on each of your timestamps. One is valid on Tuesday the 6th, the other is valid on Wednesday the 7th. The two aren't very dissimilar at all. In fact that's pretty good agreement for a week out. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Guys, the EPS and GEFS means aren't that far apart. They're different, but it's nothing earth shattering. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Just because the Euro was 3 hours late being released shouldn't push the run itself back though. I'd think hour 0 would still be 12z.Exactly. The data and initialization scheme don't change. The computers just process that data later. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Guys, the EPS and GEFS means aren't that far apart. They're different, but it's nothing earth shattering.So, can we pick which one we want? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 In case anyone cares, the NAM should become potentially meaningful with the coming 00z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 In case anyone cares, the NAM should become potentially meaningful with the coming 00z run.I guess if by meaningful you mean "bullish". That model is basically garbage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I still am! The trend is our friend with KING EURO! I read all of your posts with the voice of Donald Trump in my head. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Surprised no one is commenting on the 00z NAM tonight. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Surprised no one is commenting on the 00z NAM tonight.Is it good? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Is it good?It's not out. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Surprised no one is commenting on the 00z NAM tonight.It's only out to hour 20. As generally sh*tty as the NAM is, getting in its range sure does make model riding that much more of a full time job. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Go NAM!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 It's only out to hour 20. As generally sh*tty as the NAM is, getting in its range sure does make model riding that much more of a full time job. I know... just testing the waters. And it sure does.... Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Surprised no one is commenting on the 00z NAM tonight.Perhaps it's b/c it's the NAM? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 It's not out.Probably why no one is commenting on it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I bet the block is built like a brick house on tonight's runs. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Probably why no one is commenting on it But what about the block!! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 It's only out to hour 20. As generally sh*tty as the NAM is, getting in its range sure does make model riding that much more of a full time job.I am looking forward to the wrf within 84 hours tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Stayed socked in up here all day long. Started my month with a sub-40 high. So I get a sub-40 high before my first freeze...May we live in interesting times... 39/37 with 0.06" of rain. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainman Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Where is Mr DJ lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 No doubt the GFS has been trending wetter. Interestingly this is different than any snow pattern I can recall since at least late Dec 2003. Moist NW flow with temps cold enough snow. Just haven't seen that very much this century. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Just because the Euro was 3 hours late being released shouldn't push the run itself back though. I'd think hour 0 would still be 12z.Right. I wasn't saying that changed it. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Best thing about the NAM is you get to use your imagination starting with hour 85. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I've been at the hospital... home now. 12z ECMWF was the closest run yet to a regional modified blast, and PDX pretty much gets one. Coldest yet Gorge east. I haven't had time to analyze the 12z EURO or 18z GFS in gret detail, but I assume the wonky Kona low and other cut-off low is handed differently. Beyond day 7 ECMWF got close to prolonging the cold. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I've been at the hospital... home now. 12z ECMWF was the closest run yet to a regional modified blast, and PDX pretty much gets one. Coldest yet Gorge east. I haven't had time to analyze the 12z EURO or 18z GFS in gret detail, but I assume the wonky Kona low and other cut-off low is handed differently. Beyond day 7 ECMWF got close to prolonging the cold.Hope all is well, DJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 DJ praying for u Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 NAM running warmer than the GFS. Dogs and cats living together... Mass hysteria! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 NAM running warmer than the GFS. Dogs and cats living together... Mass hysteria!Winter cancel! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Right. I wasn't saying that changed it.That horse is long dead, but you said hour 144 on the 12z Euro and 18z GFS would be 3 hours apart which is why I thought you were thinking the Euro was all pushed back. Nothing too significant to report from the 00z NAM. Doesn't look particularly cold, but definitely quite a bit of moisture around at the end of the run Sunday night/Monday morning. The low stays North longer than the GFS keeping us in onshore flow though. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I've been at the hospital... home now. 12z ECMWF was the closest run yet to a regional modified blast, and PDX pretty much gets one. Coldest yet Gorge east. I haven't had time to analyze the 12z EURO or 18z GFS in gret detail, but I assume the wonky Kona low and other cut-off low is handed differently. Beyond day 7 ECMWF got close to prolonging the cold.Get some rest and get well soon. We need you at your best in a few days. The models have stressed you out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EA_TTD Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Hopefully someone hit ctrl+alt+delete on the GFS and we can get back to reality! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Free the NAM. Let's get this party started. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Was the 00z NAM any good? If not we can just dismiss it for being the NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 OMG! I am already down to 41.4 living the dream!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 00z GFS is running... Join the fun... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=T850&runtime=2016120200&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Was the 00z NAM any good? If not we can just dismiss it for being the NAM...Dismiss a model you can't even interpret huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 The NAM was a bit delayed with the cold air vs. the GFS. Nothing earth shattering. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Dismiss a model you can't even interpret huh? The NAM is garbage. Everyone knows the European is far far superior. Whatever it says, I believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Dismiss a model you can't even interpret huh? Too lazy too, this forum has spoiled me with all the members who post the relevant images right away. I only go to the NAM when the GFS and Euro betray us and I need false hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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