December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Deweydog]

It better be running by 1 PM. I have to leave at 2 PM to my surgeon for another evaluation.....

Having some Hadley Cells removed?

[Gradient Keeper]

Having some Hadley Cells removed?

Somethin' like that. Had a bone scan on my knee 2 months ago and revealed it is inflamed and damaged. What's left of my meniscus is just slipping and flapping around. 4 surgeries on it already. I have a specialized fancy unloader brace(real expensive!) they specifically had fitted for my knee which really only is designed to delay the next operation. It is supposed to pull the joint apart creating a "cushion" of sorts since I really have no meniscus or cartilage left. It is supposed to take pressure off it.

[chopper 918]

12z GFS run still on the warmer side of the ensemble mean for next week. LR mean creeps up, but still shows potential.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Love that one member...botttoms out at -15. Yes please!!!

[stuffradio]

Somethin' like that. Had a bone scan on my knee 2 months ago and revealed it is inflamed and damaged. What's left of my meniscus is just slipping and flapping around. 4 surgeries on it already. I have a specialized fancy unloader brace(real expensive!) they specifically had fitted for my knee which really only is designed to delay the next operation. It is supposed to pull the joint apart creating a "cushion" of sorts since I really have no meniscus or cartilage left. It is supposed to take pressure off it.

Sounds painful. Some real cold air would help ice that knee.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Somethin' like that. Had a bone scan on my knee 2 months ago and revealed it is inflamed and damaged. What's left of my meniscus is just slipping and flapping around. 4 surgeries on it already. I have a specialized fancy unloader brace(real expensive!) they specifically had fitted for my knee which really only is designed to delay the next operation. It is supposed to pull the joint apart creating a "cushion" of sorts since I really have no meniscus or cartilage left. It is supposed to take pressure off it.

 

My brother blew both his meniscus, playing catcher in high school. He had surgery to repair one and said the surgery had a net positive effect of zero, so he never got the 2nd surgery done. He says the knee he had "repaired" is worse than the one he never had surgery on. I wish you luck. 

[Gradient Keeper]

My brother blew both his meniscus, playing catcher in high school. He had surgery to repair one and said the surgery had a net positive effect of zero, so he never got the 2nd surgery done. He says the knee he had "repaired" is worse than the one he never had surgery on. I wish you luck. 

I'm also wondering if the multiple surgeries has just been a waste of time and of no benefit, or just temporary band-aids. Thanks.

 

Since 7th grade I've had

Osgood Schlatter's Disease

Patella Femoral Syndrome

Osteochondritis

Deterioration of cartilage. I've had 7 pins put in it, cartilage repaired, bone repaired, and meniscus cleaned out/repaired twice.

 

I imagine a total replacement is the only option for me. As long as I can still get out to go brown trout fishing.

[chopper 918]

My brother blew both his meniscus, playing catcher in high school. He had surgery to repair one and said the surgery had a net positive effect of zero, so he never got the 2nd surgery done. He says the knee he had "repaired" is worse than the one he never had surgery on. I wish you luck.

Jeeze dude. Way to be positive.

[Front Ranger]

We are getting into the range where the GFS usually has a warm bias, FWIW. Maybe Michael J. is onto something. Euro will be telling.

 

Been more Jim Carrey than Michael J. Fox recently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm going to say it again. December looks moist. 

[Front Ranger]

 

Per Ryan Maue via Twitter:

 

Supercomputers in Reading at ECMWF suffered a power outage and will take a while (2 hours) to boot up. 12z products may be delayed

 

Less wait time between the 12z and 0z. I'll take it!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Could be a hood canal special. Perfect set up next week to get buried there.

[Front Ranger]

Credit for this graphic goes to twitter handle @griteater.

 

October/November average AAM anomaly was the 6th highest on record since 1958. There aren't many -ENSO/+QBO analogs featuring a positive anomaly, save 1985/86, 1980/81, 1959/60, and 1995/96.

 

Probably mainly due to the fact we're following a Super Nino with a barely Nina.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jeeze dude. Way to be positive.

 

Wasn't meant as a negative. 

[Phil]

Probably mainly due to the fact we're following a Super Nino with a barely Nina.

Tell that to 1983/84. Or 1966/67. Both had lower AAM anomalies following super niños.

 

This is different, IMO. We're probably not done with NPAC troughing/+EPO bursts, either.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wasn't meant as a negative. 

I knew you weren't. Appreciate it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The JMA

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_T850_wus_6.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Teleconnection Indices forecast

-PNA tanks big time!

 

http://i.imgur.com/6kaJzRN.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have not said much on this whole warning shot but it looks very good for us next week imo.

[Deweydog]

The JMA

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_T850_wus_6.png

 

[Gradient Keeper]

The JMA

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_T850_wus_6.png

Really kind of surprised it's this cold because it has a Kona low and progression is somewhat similar to the 12z GFS

 

However, the difference on the JMA is very obvious. The block is more upright and notice it even tilts ---> into Yukon very favorably giving the arctic trough a bit of a kick or nudge digging it further southward towards/over us. That is a key thing and if we somehow saw future GFS/ECMWF runs show that we'd be in real business.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_z500_mslp_npac_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_z500a_npac_6.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This Monday morning thing...I am intrigued. 

[van city]

Really kind of surprised it's this cold because it has a Kona low and progression is somewhat similar to the 12z GFS

 

However, the difference on the JMA is very obvious. The block is more upright and notice it even tilts ---> into Yukon very favorably giving the arctic trough a bit of a kick or nudge digging it further southward towards/over us. That is a key thing and if we somehow saw future GFS/ECMWF runs show that we'd be in real business.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_z500_mslp_npac_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016120112/jma_z500a_npac_6.png

How reliable is the Nakamura model?

[The Swamp]

Everything depends on how these lows track down the coast. Onshore flow = rain in most cases unless the cold air is already entrenched.

 

The over-running event looks marginal at best. The cold will be gone quick. Poof!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen weighed in about an hour ago with his thoughts. He says this looks like a one shot deal (Mon-Wed/TH). Said a solid trend of warming up the trough, but the Monday morning system makes the forecast tough. I can say I think 2-4" of snow is probably a good idea for my location Monday... We'll see. 

[FroYoBro]

This Monday morning thing...I am intrigued. 

 

You should be more than intrigued. Your location is going to do really great during that timeframe. 

[Deweydog]

How reliable is the Nakamura model?

It correctly predicted the 2011 tsunami 10 days out.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Everything depends on how these lows track down the coast. Onshore flow = rain in most cases unless the cold air is already entrenched.

 

The over-running event looks marginal at best. The cold will be gone quick. Poof!

Well yes for your area! when did it last snow there? November 1985??

[HighlandExperience]

Well yes for your area! when did it last snow there? November 1985??

Puyallup only gets snow once every 299 years.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Mark Nelsen weighed in about an hour ago with his thoughts. He says this looks like a one shot deal (Mon-Wed/TH). Said a solid trend of warming up the trough, but the Monday morning system makes the forecast tough. I can say I think 2-4" of snow is probably a good idea for my location Monday... We'll see. 

Very fair analysis by him and this will be a very short-lived marginal event. Yes, there will (might) be snow but blink and it will be gone. Pretty typical type of PNW event overall but much better than the last few years. SO, yes, a mini warning shot.

 

As far as the overrunning event my guess is the cold air just will not be thick enough for it to snow very long and it is possible freezing rain may be fairly wide spread up here. Unless something drastically changes in the models I think many may have way to high expectations for the snow to rain transition which to me looks like a quick one. I have high hopes for an arctic miracle though!! LIKE not turning into an instant slop fest and actually being something we can enjoy for than a few hours ... BUT at least it is going to snow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Puyallup only gets snow once every 299 years.

297.3 years.... Cmon!!! At least be accurate. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raining all morning in Marion County this morning.

[FroYoBro]

The Euro situation has really thrown my entire day off. Not sure if I will survive today. 

[Deweydog]

Does the Euro situation mean the cold air will be delayed three hours too?

[Timmy]

The Euro situation has really thrown my entire day off. Not sure if I will survive today.

I bet there is a spy from the British government on here and they saw us getting all worked up, and decided to f with us. I would do it if I were them

[Kayla]

Chilly day at the top of the West Hills today. Only 40º here as I approach the noon hour after a morning low of 36º.

 

Nice way to start out December.

[Deweydog]

Block looks sturdier, stubborner and snobbier.

[luvssnow_spokane]

ECMWF... mmmm the initial low is way south on Sunday. 

 

Previous run

 

 

Current run

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Tell that to 1983/84. Or 1966/67. Both had lower AAM anomalies following super niños.

 

This is different, IMO. We're probably not done with NPAC troughing/+EPO bursts, either.

 

I wouldn't consider 1965-66 to be a super Nino. Certainly not close to the level of 2015-16.

 

And yeah, I'm sure there will be more +EPO this winter. Looks D**n blocky in the North Pacific for now, though. 

[Kayla]

Block looks sturdier, stubborner and snobbier.

 

Was just going to say, Euro is looking great.