December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

The NAM was a bit delayed with the cold air vs. the GFS. Nothing earth shattering.

On the plus side, we won't have to endure watching the NAM water down 850's from -15 at hour 84 to -8 when it happens.

[Perturbed Member]

The NAM was a bit delayed with the cold air vs. the GFS. Nothing earth shattering.

 

Yeah, PDX -7c 850mb temp with a surface temp of 34-35 as precip approaches. Not too different from GFS it seems.

[Gradient Keeper]

Oh, I am fine just very exhausted. My Mom had a medical emergency this morning actually while we were here sitting here talking about the models. Hope 00z is cold

[Perturbed Member]

Oh, I am fine just very exhausted. My Mom had a medical emergency this morning actually while we were here sitting here talking about the models. Hope 00z is cold

 

Hope all is well soon DJ.

[mountainman]

Oh i see DJ...so being a weather nut runs in the family  

[Bryant]

The whole model preference obsession is setting people up for disappointment.

[crf450ish]

OMG!  I am already down to 41.4 living the dream!!

Sitting @ a brisk  28  at my house

[Deweydog]

Running warmer/slower than the 12z.

 

Then turns colder as we approach the Monday morning climax.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hope all is well soon DJ.

She is doing much better thank you. She had collapsed passed out fell face first just laid out. She was unresponsive and unconscious for other 30 seconds. She was limp. I thought she was gone. Called 911 paramedics showed up 2 minutes. They took to local hospital Ran tests on her... All negative. They said she was severely dehydrated combined with a huge blood pressure spike. She likely has concussion from fall. That has returned to normal. Getting the image out of my head is hard. Really shaken up about it all still.

 

I hope we get cold and snow

[Perturbed Member]

Things are a tad warmer and slower on the 00z GFS. Still starting out as snow FWIW

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120200/084/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

[Timmy]

Things are a tad warmer and slower on the 00z GFS. Still starting out as snow FWIW

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120200/084/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

Colder and slower compared to the 18z

[Perturbed Member]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120200/090/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

 

This is an improvement over the 18z GFS. Colder and staying snow.

[FroYoBro]

Hmmm. Monday definitely looks interesting. It's going to be close. 

[Perturbed Member]

She is doing much better thank you. She had collapsed passed out fell face first just laid out. She was unresponsive and unconscious for other 30 seconds. She was limp. I thought she was gone. Called 911 paramedics showed up 2 minutes. They took to local hospital Ran tests on her... All negative. They said she was severely dehydrated combined with a huge blood pressure spike. She likely has concussion from fall. That has returned to normal. Getting the image out of my head is hard. Really shaken up about it all still.

 

I hope we get cold and snow

 

I'm sorry you had such a scary experience, I've had a similar experience with a family member before. I know how disturbing it can be. I'm glad she is doing better though. 

[Heavy Snow]

She is doing much better thank you. She had collapsed passed out fell face first just laid out. She was unresponsive and unconscious for other 30 seconds. She was limp. I thought she was gone. Called 911 paramedics showed up 2 minutes. They took to local hospital Ran tests on her... All negative. They said she was severely dehydrated combined with a huge blood pressure spike. She likely has concussion from fall. That has returned to normal. Getting the image out of my head is hard. Really shaken up about it all still.

 

I hope we get cold and snow

I'm so sorry to here that DJ Droppin. You're a great son for taking care of your mom. I hope your mom has a fast recovery. I hope your mom loves snow as much as you do so if we can get some it will help her recovery.

[catnip]

She is doing much better thank you. She had collapsed passed out fell face first just laid out. She was unresponsive and unconscious for other 30 seconds. She was limp. I thought she was gone. Called 911 paramedics showed up 2 minutes. They took to local hospital Ran tests on her... All negative. They said she was severely dehydrated combined with a huge blood pressure spike. She likely has concussion from fall. That has returned to normal. Getting the image out of my head is hard. Really shaken up about it all still.

 

I hope we get cold and snow

Sorry to hear. Glad she is feeling a bit better now.

[Perturbed Member]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120200/102/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

I think we can live with this?

[catnip]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120200/102/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

I think we can live with this?

Nope! Sucks for up here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

She is doing much better thank you. She had collapsed passed out fell face first just laid out. She was unresponsive and unconscious for other 30 seconds. She was limp. I thought she was gone. Called 911 paramedics showed up 2 minutes. They took to local hospital Ran tests on her... All negative. They said she was severely dehydrated combined with a huge blood pressure spike. She likely has concussion from fall. That has returned to normal. Getting the image out of my head is hard. Really shaken up about it all still.

 

I hope we get cold and snow

 

God dude I am so sorry. Good thing you were there to help. If you aren't currently certified you should think about taking a first aid CPR class. Sometimes you save someone in a situation like that and they live 20 more years. 

[bainbridgekid]

00z continues to show pretty widespread wet snowfall Monday morning with a ~1014mb low sliding very slowly down the coast.

 

Experience says these lows tend to spin up and move South slower than modeled, which often hits Northern areas harder while leaving others warmer and drier than progged, but that certainly isn't always the case. It often keeps moisture around longer than modeled as well.

[Perturbed Member]

Nope! Sucks for up here.

 

Lets just hope the euro comes through and we get that regionwide snow event. 

[Bryant]

 

I think we can live with this?

What happened to king Euro? Ohhh, gfs showed something you wanted to see so it's all good now

[Perturbed Member]

00z continues to show pretty widespread wet snowfall Monday morning with a ~1014mb low sliding very slowly down the coast.

 

Experience says these lows tend to spin up and move South slower than modeled, which often hits Northern areas harder while leaving others warmer and drier than progged, but that certainly isn't always the case. It often keeps moisture around longer than modeled as well.

 

Yeah I gotta admit these setups rarely work for PDX for the very reason you described. I think it fails us much more often than not. We get stuck with onshore flow. Once it eventually gets cold enough, there's no precip left. 

[Heavy Snow]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120200/090/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

 

This is an improvement over the 18z GFS. Colder and staying snow.

I think it's all going to come down to precipitation intensity. I forget what year it was but I think January 2000. I remember going to school and the weather man said 1000 foot snow levels as showers swirl in from the Pacific. It started snowing right when school started and wouldnt stop until after lunch time I think. I think we got a few inches or possibly more. I went home that day watched the news and the weather man showed the perfect heavy precip sit over PDX for several hours dropping the snow level to the Valley Floor. I'll always remember that.

[Perturbed Member]

What happened to king Euro? Ohhh, gfs showed something you wanted to see so it's all good now

 

Euro is still king, the 12z was good. It might get dethroned through if we don't like the 00z run.

[Deweydog]

Much better run thus far for bringing in some actual modified Arctic .

[Jesse]

Much better run thus far for bringing in some actual modified Arctic s**t.

Trending toward the MJF and Euro. Probably not a bad sign.

[Perturbed Member]

I think it's all going to come down to precipitation intensity. I forget what year it was but I think January 2000. I remember going to school and the weather man said 1000 foot snow levels as showers swirl in from the Pacific. It started snowing right when school started and wouldnt stop until after lunch time I think. I think we got a few inches or possibly more. I went home that day watched the news and the weather man showed the perfect heavy precip sit over PDX for several hours dropping the snow level to the Valley Floor. I'll always remember that.

 

There was a similar thing over Eugene very late in the season, maybe 2013? A front stalled and just dropped heavy precip for hours. I think they got 8 inches of snow or something. Always really shaky to rely on steady and heavy precip to bring you lower snow levels though. 

[BLI snowman]

Much better run thus far for bringing in some actual modified Arctic s**t.

 

Block looks stiffer, stouter, and sparklier.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There was a similar thing over Eugene very late in the season, maybe 2013? A front stalled and just dropped heavy precip for hours. I think they got 8 inches of snow or something. Always really shaky to rely on steady and heavy precip to bring you lower snow levels though. 

 

March 21, 2012. Snowed 4" in Salem and 20" up here at my place. It was pretty awesome.

[FroYoBro]

March 21, 2012. Snowed 4" in Salem and 20" up here at my place. It was pretty awesome.

 Yeah, I was going to U of O at the time. That was a pretty odd/awesome event. 

[Deweydog]

Trending toward the MJF and Euro. Probably not a bad sign.

That little guy for Monday looks like fun too. I'm starting to like the idea of 2-3 inches if precip is as heavy as progged. At least for areas with a tiny bit of elevation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 Yeah, I was going to U of O at the time. That was a pretty odd/awesome event. 

 

My brother was at U of O law. He lived in the hills in the southern part of town. Had about 10" and lots of trees and branches down... As a side note, what was your favorite bar in Eugene and PLEASE do not say Taylor's. 

[Perturbed Member]

March 21, 2012. Snowed 4" in Salem and 20" up here at my place. It was pretty awesome.

 

I think PDX was sitting in the upper 30s while that was happening. Unusual event to say the least. I tried to enjoy it while watching the UO webcams, such is the life of a snow deprived weather nut.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That little guy for Monday looks like fun too. I'm starting to like the idea of 2-3 inches if precip is as heavy as progged. At least for areas with a tiny bit of elevation.

 

I am thinking about staying home from work for that....

[luvssnow_spokane]

She is doing much better thank you. She had collapsed passed out fell face first just laid out. She was unresponsive and unconscious for other 30 seconds. She was limp. I thought she was gone. Called 911 paramedics showed up 2 minutes. They took to local hospital Ran tests on her... All negative. They said she was severely dehydrated combined with a huge blood pressure spike. She likely has concussion from fall. That has returned to normal. Getting the image out of my head is hard. Really shaken up about it all still.

 

I hope we get cold and snow

Oh man that is super scary and difficult thing to go through and I am so sorry. I have been through just such a thing and I know the feeling the imagery it leaves behind. *bro hugs* 

[Deweydog]

I am thinking about staying home from work for that....

If you go, you'll die.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS trended TOWARD the Euro a bit

[Jesse]

That little guy for Monday looks like fun too. I'm starting to like the idea of 2-3 inches if precip is as heavy as progged. At least for areas with a tiny bit of elevation.

Nice. I'm not used to seeing you this bullish.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you go, you'll die.

 

If I go I'll just be obsessing about what its doing at my house and get absolutely nothing done...,