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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
jaya

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

You should immediately write an apology to Bryan Adams to atone for this travesty.

 

Nickelback currently blaring

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Canadian alert!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120700/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

Big difference between the 06z and tonights 00z for the Puget sound. Portland is about the same.

 

06z

gfs_asnow_nwus_24.png

 

 

Tonights 00z

gfs_asnow_nwus_21.png

Slowly but surely getting screwed...like yesterday!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

Kiss of death? 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
816 PM PST TUE DEC 6 2016

WAZ001-503-504-506-507-509>512-514-555-556-558-559-071315-
/O.NEW.KSEW.WS.A.0011.161208T1500Z-161209T1500Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-
WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-
BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
816 PM PST TUE DEC 6 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

* TIMING...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS SNOW...THEN CHANGE TO RAIN.
AROUND 12 HOURS OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. FOUR INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE
HOOD CANAL AREA...WHERE STRONG EAST WINDS WILL ADD AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE SNOW...COULD GET SEVEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
ONSET OF SNOW...AND THE CHANGE TO RAIN...WILL BE EARLIER IN THE
SOUTH AND LATER IN THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY MORNING IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT SNOW WILL HAVE CHANGED TO RAIN EVERYWHERE.

* MAIN IMPACT...TRAVEL WILL BE GREATLY AFFECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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HighlandExperience Newbie

HighlandExperience

Posted
Posted

Well 00z certainly followed in the 18z footsteps with developing a trend of less snow for the Seattle area.

 

6z/12z showed close to a foot (wasn't going to verify, but still), 18z showed 4-8 (similar to Euro), and now 00z shows 3-5.

 

Tonight's 00z actually looks very similar, at least accumulation wise, to last nights 00z. Very interested to see the Euro.

 

Hope those snow totals don't keep declining. Lots of sad people will be on here. 

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

Pretty confident those totals in the Seattle area are understated.  I'm going with 6 or more inches for most areas.  That cold air is going to be tough to scour out.

 It is more the depreciating pattern for a good moisture pattern than a lack of cold. But yes in some areas the snow could be more.

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

PDX down to 30...Whoaaaaa

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

In actuality early next week still looks interesting if you look at the surface pressure maps.  Gradients become northerly with decently low 850s.  Still tons of potential there.  As for the Thursday event....this is going to be fun to watch.  Pretty interesting to note the 534 thickness line stays way south of Seattle into Friday morning now.  I still hope to see a more baroclinic look to the Euro like some earlier runs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Well 00z certainly followed in the 18z footsteps with developing a trend of less snow for the Seattle area.

 

6z/12z showed close to a foot (wasn't going to verify, but still), 18z showed 4-8 (similar to Euro), and now 00z shows 3-5.

 

Tonight's 00z actually looks very similar, at least accumulation wise, to last nights 00z. Very interested to see the Euro.

 

 

I have been watching the ECMWF snow maps for the last few weeks.   First with the Midwest and then out here in the last 10 days for mountain snow and then the lowland event on Sunday/Monday.

 

I have noticed it seems to consistently overstate snow totals.    It was pretty ridiculously high with a couple events in Minnesota in November compared to what actually happened.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Couple of pics from snowy downtown Boulder tonight. Here's to everyone here witnessing similar scenes very soon.

 

attachicon.gifIMG_20161206_210103045.jpg

 

attachicon.gifIMG_20161206_210303355.jpg

 

Purdy.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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seattleweatherguy Community Regular

seattleweatherguy

Posted
Posted

In actuality early next week still looks interesting if you look at the surface pressure maps. Gradients become northerly with decently low 850s. Still tons of potential there. As for the Thursday event....this is going to be fun to watch. Pretty interesting to note the 534 thickness line stays way south of Seattle into Friday morning now. I still hope to see a more baroclinic look to the Euro like some earlier runs.

What's your gut say. We get 4 plus or more towards 1

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HighlandExperience Newbie

HighlandExperience

Posted
Posted

In actuality early next week still looks interesting if you look at the surface pressure maps.  Gradients become northerly with decently low 850s.  Still tons of potential there.  As for the Thursday event....this is going to be fun to watch.  Pretty interesting to note the 534 thickness line stays way south of Seattle into Friday morning now.  I still hope to see a more baroclinic look to the Euro like some earlier runs.

 

Hopefully downslope flow doesn't kill our snow totals on the east side. I'd be pretty annoyed if we got 1 inch. =)

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

What's your gut say. We get 4 plus or more towards 1

 

I'm fairly optimistic.  The baroclinicity that has emerged on recent model runs as opposed to a strong low helps our cause.  I'm always worried about east wind drying out the moisture with cases like this, but the baroclinicity should help combat that.  In some cases the interaction between cold / dry easterlies and the moisture can actually cause enhancement.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/other_obs.php?wfo=pqr&zone=ORZ006

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

It was the same way at WWU in Bellingham.

 

Close enough to almost always benefit from Fraser outflow, but blocked from the strong winds by the hills to the North.

 

Snow is so much more enjoyable when it stays caked on everything than when it's blown all over the place.

 

 

So true... so far we have been wind-free in this snowy period.   Rattlesnake Ridge was perfectly caked this morning and remains the same now.     

 

15304222_1167437449991128_78885118264246

 

Tomorrow afternoon we will start to see snow puffs flying upward all over the ridge as wind hits the snow covered boughs.       Does not look nearly as nice after that process.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

Kinda crazy how different the models still are just 36 hours out with the approach and development of overrunning low.

 

The latest GEM is almost worst case scenario, at least for the PNW lowlands overall, in my opinion.

Warning shot!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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