December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I'm seeing a huge blank spot for snow here on Thursday on most of the models. Just a little impatient is all.

Dude... go frame by frame on the 00Z ECMWF snow maps every 6 hours for the next 10 days. Its crazy. It keeps snowing.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Things sure have been pushed back a lot, I'm not entirely sure whether that's a good thing or bad thing but based on the forecast outcome it looks promising. It doesn't mean there won't be other goodies like the prospects of strait effect/upslope snows as cold air is drawn to the approaching low. It also gives the cold air in our interior outflow sources more time to deepen before it hits; that in itself will make it harder for the low to slam ashore, though it could get directed north (well offshore) or south around it (rapidly weakening). Currently cloudy at 30F with a 12F dewpoint here in Victoria.

[TT-SEA]

Unexpected cloud cover keeping the temp up here tonight also.

Some clouds here now too... also some flurries. Down to 26 though.

[snow_wizard]

Dude... go frame by frame on the 00Z ECMWF snow maps every 6 hours for the next 10 days. Its crazy. It keeps snowing.

 

 

I know.  I'm happy with the pattern overall.  It just seems like the details always go against this particular area is all.

[TT-SEA]

I know.  I'm happy with the pattern overall.  It just seems like the details always go against this particular area is all.

You will not be saying that next week.

[Heavy Snow]

Amazing KING EURO run. At face value PDX would get some initial snow on day 8, then a potentially devastating ice storm with temps in the low to mid 20s as heavy moisture pounds the area with east winds going crazy! 

[Front Ranger]

Dude... go frame by frame on the 00Z ECMWF snow maps every 6 hours for the next 10 days. Its crazy. It keeps snowing.

 

Seattle is the new Juneau.

 

If the pattern evolves close to what the Euro is showing, everyone from Salem north will see plenty of snow. No sense worrying about downsloping or precip shadows at this point. The major players are in place, just need that low to stay weak enough and south enough.

[Heavy Snow]

THANKS KING EURO!

[Jesse]

THANKS KING EURO!

It's a computer model. It just forecasts the weather based on numerical input. It doesn't create it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

With a little luck we can help it out

We can make this whole D**n thing work out

[seattleweatherguy]

Pray it works out.....

[Heavy Snow]

It's a computer model. It just forecasts the weather based on numerical input. It doesn't create it.

 

Lighten up Dude, you're going to see snow soon!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's a computer model. It just forecasts the weather based on numerical input. It doesn't create it.

Do you really think he does not know that? Lol! I think you're grumpy. Oh and THANK YOU KING EURO!

[GHweatherChris]

With a little luck we can help it out

We can make this whole D**n thing work out

Love the McCartney help here dude!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Love the McCartney help here dude!!

lol

[HighlandExperience]

[MikeInEverett]

Wow. 80 pages for this month's discussion and it's only the 6th!

[ShawniganLake]

Things sure have been pushed back a lot, I'm not entirely sure whether that's a good thing or bad thing but based on the forecast outcome it looks promising. It doesn't mean there won't be other goodies like the prospects of strait effect/upslope snows as cold air is drawn to the approaching low. It also gives the cold air in our interior outflow sources more time to deepen before it hits; that in itself will make it harder for the low to slam ashore, though it could get directed north (well offshore) or south around it (rapidly weakening). Currently cloudy at 30F with a 12F dewpoint here in Victoria.

The airmass has sure dried this evening down there. It was still pretty saturated up here this afternoon, even some patchy fog. Looks like a good chance Victoria sees their biggest snowfall since 2012 on Friday

 

I took this picture late this afternoon looking west. Pretty cloudy afternoon with light flurries. High of 33F

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[bainbridgekid]

Um . . . . Looks like the wind may not be the only thing that's stiff in the Gorge.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If i had to guess i would say we are looking at a 1996 and a 2008 hybrid. Been ahwile since we have seen the battle of the northern and southern stream over us.

[bainbridgekid]

If i had to guess i would say we are looking at a 1996 and a 2008 hybrid. Been ahwile since we have seen the battle of the northern and southern stream over us.

They did some pretty serious battle in Jan. 2011, Jan. 2012, and late February 2014. The Southern Stream just largely won.

[Sometimesdylan]

6 inches of snow so far since this AM. 

 

Heaviest bands of precip not even here yet. What a good evening.

[seattleweatherguy]

Let me get this straight most likely no snow thurs possible snow fri thru weekend?

[Brennan]

Hella D**n quiet up in nis mo fo tonight.

 

6z gfs is 26 minutes!

[Heavy Snow]

Hella D**n quiet up in nis mo fo tonight.

 

6z gfs is 26 minutes!

 

I couldn't sleep!

[North_County]

Listening to the Fraser start to rev up again overnight. The steady outflow "hum" is back, and the last few gusts have rattled the windows.

 

26° as of 1am with gusts around 30mph.

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 00z KING EURO EPS shows a modified Arctic Blast at Day 7.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2016120700/168/850t.conus.png

[Weather101]

[Heavy Snow]

Here is what the 00z KING EURO EPS is showing for highs/lows for next Tue to Thu for Seattle, Yakima, Portland and The Dalles. BRRRRRR!

 

SEA: 33/28

         34/25

         34/27

 

YKM: 17/9

          14/3

          17/5

 

PDX: 34/28

         32/25

         34/24

 

DLS: 20/16

         15/9

         18/10

[Heavy Snow]

So January is ruined ?

 

Nope, not at all.

[Brennan]

Listening to the Fraser start to rev up again overnight. The steady outflow "hum" is back, and the last few gusts have rattled the windows.

 

26° as of 1am with gusts around 30mph.

I enjoy your reports up there! Hopefully that NE persists for the better part of the next couple weeks.

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 06z GFS has now trended towards KING EURO and is now showing a modified Arctic Blast starting next Tuesday.

[Heavy Snow]

The 06z GFS says it's getting COLD in here!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120706/168/sfct.us_nw.png

[Heavy Snow]

Things are looking promising for another significant weather event next week. A Winter Battle Zone is going to set up shop somewhere and somebody is going to get lots of snow, ice and strong winds!

[Heavy Snow]

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/98/98b322c7bf5992110646420866f72f492bc8706eb4769179676149ad713251d3.jpg

[Phil]

Confession:

 

The only Star Wars movie I've seen start to finish is the one that came out last Christmas.

Lol, I haven't watched a minute of Star Wars. You're fine.

[MossMan]

19F currently.

[mountainman]

Is it quiet cuz the models are calling for maybe a little snow with a weak Low, followed by transition to rain Friday?  It seems like you guys are talking like it will snow all weekend, even down to PDX?  Ummm i hope so but don't the models say basically transition to rain within a day?

 

You know i dunno

[mountainman]

Dammmmmmmm check out our forecast up north here lol.  Just posted and wowwwww

 

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-81_metric_e.html