December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Clearing is a good thing right now. Need to dry out from all this wetness

Very true. It's all depended on where that loow goes its current position and movement is questionable. Because currently looking at it we're about done for the night it was fun though.

[Jbolin]

Not necessarily good on the south side of a c-zone.  

Fairly clear off to my NW here actually 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not necessarily good on the south side of a c-zone.

Yes I totally agree and when I was trying to share with Jim but he didn't want to hear it. We're not gonna have very much snow here that's the bottom line.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yes I totally agree and when I was trying to share with Jim but he didn't want to hear it. We're not gonna have very much snow here that's the bottom line.

When the low pulls se it will pull the zone over you. Watch.

[HighlandExperience]

Latest 02z HRRR sure looks juicy and snowy for a lot of PDX peeps later tonight through the early morning hours.

[luvssnow_spokane]

When the low pulls se it will pull the zone over you. Watch.

Fingers crossed current placement and path of that low it's concerning so I'm not expecting more than a trace maybe an inch at the most.

[BLI snowman]

Dumping hard here at the moment, down to 33.3. Pleasantly surprised to see things starting to whiten up.

[BLI snowman]

I'm guessing our friends in Clark County are getting snow right now?

 

Yes, we've avoided any south wind today up here, down now from a high of 34.

[FroYoBro]

Dumping hard here at the moment, down to 33.3. Pleasantly surprised to see things starting to whiten up.

 

It might melt a little tomorrow. 

[HighlandExperience]

Temps finally leveling off and dropping again. Looks like it is snowing in snoqualmie ridge area. 

[Bham_Guy]

Mostly rain in Bellingham right now.

[TT-SEA]

Temps finally leveling off and dropping again. Looks like it is snowing in snoqualmie ridge area.

 

We have 20 teenagers at our house right now and half of them came from Snoqualmie Ridge and they reported it was snowing there.

[BLI snowman]

It might melt a little tomorrow. 

 

Were screw!11

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs and nam way different on how the handle the low tomorrow. GFS has it down around vancuver wa tomorrow.

[BLI snowman]

Latest 02z HRRR sure looks juicy and snowy for a lot of PDX peeps later tonight through the early morning hours.

 

Anyone above 200' or so might indeed get rather lucky tonight, suddenly looking like 2-3" possible.

[Kayla]

GFS continues the upward trend of snowfall for the PDX area. Shows a widespread area of 2-3" of snowfall now.

[TT-SEA]

About 1 inch here... some sleet mixed in at times. 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

GFS continues the upward trend of snowfall for the PDX area. Shows a widespread area of 2-3" of snowfall now.

SCORE!!!

[Kayla]

Anyone above 200' or so might indeed get rather lucky tonight, suddenly looking like 2-3" possible.

 

You still seeing snow there? I'm honestly surprised I'm even seeing moderate sticking snow at 1,000ft this early in the evening.

[snow_wizard]

Totally dry out now. Lots of stars and clear skies truly overachieving tonight. I'm really enjoying this.

This isn't our time yet. Late tonight / early tomorrow. Shockingly even the NAM WRF is pretty good for us.

[snow_wizard]

SCORE!!!

Good lord dude.

[Goducks09]

Mixed snow and rain in Downtown PDX with a very strong south wind.

[TT-SEA]

Yes I totally agree and when I was trying to share with Jim but he didn't want to hear it. We're not gonna have very much snow here that's the bottom line.

 

 

New GFS keeps most of the snow north of I-90 tonight and tomorrow morning.   Sharp cut-off as you get south of I-90.

[snow_wizard]

Fingers crossed current placement and path of that low it's concerning so I'm not expecting more than a trace maybe an inch at the most.

Why is it concerning? It's dead on what we want.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through tomorrow night per the 00Z GFS.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

On the 00z GFS it looks like the low goes straight across the state down past Portland then right out to sea down past central Oregon. Odd and not expecting to see that. END UP HERE: 

 

 

[BLI snowman]

You still seeing snow there? I'm honestly surprised I'm even seeing moderate sticking snow at 1,000ft this early in the evening.

 

Yeah, precip rates really dragged it down since the wind here is totally dead. Already have a slushy 1/4" on most surfaces. 

 

These types of weak southerly gradient setups are generally pretty good for Clark County once you get away from the river. 

[FroYoBro]

Sounds like sleet mixed with rain here. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Why is it concerning? It's dead on what we want.

For you. Not for my location its placement tracks right over me and that usually limits QPF at this location. Maybe an inch. 

 

EDIT:  

 

GFS pretty much shows the same thing for me. 

 

 

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow through tomorrow night per the 00Z GFS.

 

Snowwizard should get an inch based on that.

[TT-SEA]

Snowwizard should get an inch based on that.

 

 

Unfortunately... the snow down there falls between 4-10 p.m. tonight on that 00Z GFS.     And that is not happening.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snowwizard should get an inch based on that.

Closer to two.. He will not do to bad... I am sure two inches will be very satisfying for him. (showing optimism just him)

[MossMan]

On the 00z GFS it looks like the low goes straight across the state down past Portland then right out to sea down past central Oregon. Odd and not expecting to see that. END UP HERE:

 

gfs_T850_nwus_7.png

That is different than the NAM's solution correct? GFS is the better solution correct?

[Kayla]

Yeah, precip rates really dragged it down since the wind here is totally dead. Already have a slushy 1/4" on most surfaces. 

 

These types of weak southerly gradient setups are generally pretty good for Clark County once you get away from the river. 

 

Awesome. Getting a southerly breeze here currently but it hasn't affected my temp as I'm still holding steady at 31º. Should spell good news for everyone else later tonight.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Unfortunately... the snow down there falls between 4-10 p.m. tonight on that 00Z GFS.     And that is not happening.  

It may still happen for him ... Just saying.. If low slides south and does not go east he will score. (showing optimism just him)... And God Bless everyone! 

[Kayla]

In case anyone is wondering... GFS is NOT trending warmer on this run.

 

Edit - Now it is!

[snow_wizard]

Snowwizard should get an inch based on that.

Yeah...better than the 18z. A tiny bit more south and this could be pretty good here. Still a high chance there will be surprises for King County in general.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Unfortunately... the snow down there falls between 4-10 p.m. tonight on that 00Z GFS.     And that is not happening.

 

Its not ten yet. Also your snow started later than ECMWF said.

[snow_wizard]

Closer to two.. He will not do to bad... I am sure two inches will be very satisfying for him.

At this point...you bet it would. Our luck has been colossally bad so far this season.

[Timmy]

Snowing pretty decent here. Temp holding at 29