December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Can't believe there's a chance we see nothing worthwhile out of this considering what the models showed just a couple days ago.

Has happened more often than I can even count and is usually the outcome. It is a huge bummer ... It amazes me how some choose to ignore the key indicators when they show up and at least consider things may go south. Like I said before it often has to smack them upside the head for them to see it. Fortunately  we have a lot of winter left.

[Deweydog]

I fell for the hype. I was really excited to experience an old school week of January weather.

For you it will be old school.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The way it is playing out is actually how the models showed in about 7 days ago or so... That cutoff low is doing exactly what is showed then, it went away and now is back. Interesting.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Interesting... a total flip flop .

 

 

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

That cutoff low just screws everything up ... moves up the coast and sit's there for days.... Absolutely gross.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Every single run is wildly different. Anything more than 2 days out is up in the air.

[westcoastexpat]

This event has definitely over performed for metro Vancouver. I was expecting maybe 3", and I got 5".

 

Sixth significant snowfall of the month. Easily our best since 2008. Pretty much had just as many events as in 2008, but half as much.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This event has definitely over performed for metro Vancouver. I was expecting maybe 3", and I got 5".

 

Sixth significant snowfall of the month. Easily our best since 2008. Pretty much had just as many events as in 2008, but half as much.

Congrats!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well maybe some wet snow up here in a week!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All the runs are different...The last 5 have been progressively worse!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Good news folks... If we get enough of these warning shots I am sure one of them will actually deliver for all of us. Right!?  

[luvssnow_spokane]

All the runs are different...The last 5 have been progressively worse!

Different is fine ... the key is larger patten shift and the overall progression of it = NOT good! I would call it a reset but I think it is more like a cluster ***

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am going to enjoy the snow tonight...

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we have to share our epic cold with the east next weekend.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010100/gfs_T850a_us_29.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like we have to share our epic cold with the east next weekend.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010100/gfs_T850a_us_29.png

The amazing part about that... IF we watch it, it will verify which always frustrates me ... Oh well.

[MossMan]

Looks like we have to share our epic cold with the east next weekend.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010100/gfs_T850a_us_29.png

Looks like cold air is still not far away to our north on that image...if I'm looking at that map correctly?

[Bryant]

Lake Samish covered once again

 

http://i.imgur.com/mnLaN5N.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 4-8 day period is so close to crazy amounts of snow for western wa its not even funny.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like cold air is still not far away to our north on that image...if I'm looking at that map correctly?

 

 

Pretty far away on that map.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like cold air is still not far away to our north on that image...if I'm looking at that map correctly?

 

Yes just waiting to be drawn in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is definitely 2011 all over again dang how disappointing

[MossMan]

The 4-8 day period is so close to crazy amounts of snow for western wa its not even funny.

Lots of potential still!

[TT-SEA]

Lake Samish covered once again

 

http://i.imgur.com/mnLaN5N.jpg

 

 

Looks like the same basic winners and losers tonight as with all recent events.   Business as usual.

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like the same basic winners and losers tonight as have been the case all winter.   Business as usual.

 

Yup. Same places keep getting hit over and over. Expecting pics from you and Moss Man tomorrow. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 4-8 day period is so close to crazy amounts of snow for western wa its not even funny.

Overrunning.. It will snow then melt.. It is not a long lasting enjoyable event. It hits hard then turns to slop within hours.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lots of potential still!

Yep and couple days after that we get smashed with a big snow event. As long as there is arctic air near the border anything can happen. History has proven that.

[TT-SEA]

Yup. Same places keep getting hit over and over. Expecting pics from you and Moss Man tomorrow. 

 

 

Blaine has done extraordinarily well... so has the Vancouver BC area.  

[HighlandExperience]

Blaine has done extraordinarily well... so has the Vancouver BC area.  

 

Certain spots depending on elevation in Vancouver metro have done well. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Overrunning.. It will snow then melt.. It is not a long lasting enjoyable event. It hits hard then turns to slop within hours.

 

Your missing the point. Go back and study some of our biggest snows and you will see that almost all of them were on the edge of being just a cold rain. And not all of them get washed away. All I am saying is the The major players are all still there.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Your missing the point. Go back and study some of our biggest snows and you will see that almost all of them were on the edge of being just a cold rain. And not all of them get washed away. All I am saying is the The major players are all still there.

okay... Point taken. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This reminds me of the first bout with snow in 96. They forcasted it to go north and it snuck in just to the south and got really cold again after. It was forcasted to be a snow to rain event.

[Jesse]

Ringing in the new year in Government Camp. Great place to get your snow fix. Dumping here currently.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Your missing the point. Go back and study some of our biggest snows and you will see that almost all of them were on the edge of being just a cold rain. And not all of them get washed away. All I am saying is the The major players are all still there.

Just so you know I have studied them and know how they playout...

[GHweatherChris]

All snow and sleet the last 10 minutes here, not sticking but it's something.

 

Not having the radar sucks so I have to watch IR for incoming clouds to see if it precipitates something.

[MossMan]

Coming down big league now and instead of hitting the south side of the house it's now hitting the north side!

[TT-SEA]

All snow and sleet the last 10 minutes here, not sticking but it's something.

 

Not having the radar sucks so I have to watch IR for incoming clouds to see if it precipitates something.

 

 

You spent most of your life without radar out there... hard to imagine now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This reminds me of the first bout with snow in 96. They forcasted it to go north and it snuck in just to the south and got really cold again after. It was forcasted to be a snow to rain event.

I believe Nov.1985 played out in a similar way... Was supposed to be rain and BAM, we went into the deep freezer for two weeks... That being said I doubt models were as powerful as they are now. HUGE difference in prediction tools makes this significantly less likely.

[MossMan]

Wow big time snow!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Coming down big league now and instead of hitting the south side of the house it's now hitting the north side!

An error occurred

 

You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day

[Timmy]

Ringing in the new year in Government Camp. Great place to get your snow fix. Dumping here currently.

Rain or snow ?