St Paul Storm Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 MPX just expanded the watch north and upped the totals. 6-10" area wide with locals over 12". Money and E WI are golden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Wow didn't see that spinning up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 It would be a welcome worry as it then says the low pressure system has developed a true stormVery true, unless you're the one that gets stuck with either freezing drizzle and/or piece of crap flakes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Put a fork in erHmmm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Very true, unless you're the one that gets stuck with either freezing drizzle and/or piece of crap flakes!Still worth the risk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 I'll take 5" and run with it...if the GFS is right...7" is a winner here! I'm really interested to see how the Lehs sets up near MKE and the north burbs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 The country of canada should invest a couple million dollars to upgrade there data output software 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Still worth the risk.Ahh, the rich get richer! Lol. You must be one of the richer (snowier) places. My gut says that totals will be cut even more widespread than what the GFS has from NE KS into the Ottumwa area. My bet is that totals are less perhaps as far north as hwy 20, maybe as far east as NW Illinois. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 The country of canada should invest a couple million dollars to upgrade there data output software Looks similar to 12z based on B/W maps but weatherbell is up to HR 18 or so, so I'll know soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 CMC looks like a good hit around here. Keepin that dream alive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 The last 3 00z runs respectively showing the better phasing of the second wave/defo band...small little features slowly getting ironed out. Tomorrow should be interesting if the trends continue. 00z 13th... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121300/gfs_z500_vort_ncus_21.png 00z 14th... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121400/gfs_z500_vort_ncus_17.png 00z 15th... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121500/gfs_z500_vort_ncus_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Ahh, the rich get richer! Lol. You must be one of the richer (snowier) places. My gut says that totals will be cut even more widespread than what the GFS has from NE KS into the Ottumwa area. My bet is that totals are less perhaps as far north as hwy 20, maybe as far east as NW Illinois.Get plenty of snow... Have seen plenty of dry slots. Win some ya lose some. Know they are usually a necessary evil if you want well developed cutters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 WAA band a bit farther north on CMC so far through 48. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 ok so what are we tracking next? LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Canadian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 GGEM is similar to 12z but more QPF out in Minny. Widespread 12+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Canadian Looks like it develops a nice defo band as well on the backside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Gfs/ggem vs euro/nam....who won last week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Last week was a week ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Gfs/ggem vs euro/nam....who won last weekDepends on location and it has no impact on this system. EURO is still the best model but the gap is not what it once was Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Gfs/ggem vs euro/nam....who won last week Eh. All were kind of right. Euro was close on QPF, but I think it was a bit too far north. Doesn't really matter tho, different kind of set up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 HR 60 GGEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121500/060/prateptype.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 So, the 3 models so far tonight. NAM: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121500/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121500/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png CMC: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121500/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 LOT's got a tough forecast...curious if they issue a WSW or WWA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Oshkosh a foot plus on all of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Oshkosh a foot plus on all of them.Would like the euro to come on board though but I'm not sure I buy the higher amounts yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Ukie is stronger with the low. Gets it down to 995 at HR 60. About 3 mb stronger than CMC http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif 994 at HR 72. CMC/GFS both 999 or so. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 LOT's got a tough forecast...curious if they issue a WSW or WWA...Like throwing darts blindfolded Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 2.5-9.8" spread there.. solid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Mkx Facebook page ridingthe euro for qpf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Mkx Facebook page ridingthe euro for qpf.0z run should be interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Gfs ensembles look a bit wetter overall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 0z Euro coming in with a lot more QPF overall... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 0z Euro looks better with WAA and backside snows. .6 QPF from LSE all the way to MSN/MKE with eastern/SE WI in the .7-.9 range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 UKIE has a nice deformation band for S and E.IA-- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 UKIE has a nice deformation band for S and E.IA--P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gifPA_000-072_0000.gif Could you post the output euro text if you get a chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 I will,, but extremely slow tonight (not me-- the Euro text) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 So im looking at anywhere between 1.5 and 10". Lol. Gonna be hard to forcast. Hopefully models come in better agreement tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Little different format tonight since AccuWX is missing some crucial hours-- but I found a way around it-- total qpf. MSN- 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 TOTAL 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 00Z 15-DEC -15.3 -22.6 1025 58 40 517 498 THU 06Z 15-DEC -19.1 -22.8 1029 74 28 0.00 519 498 THU 12Z 15-DEC -21.5 -20.0 1032 74 15 0.00 526 503 THU 18Z 15-DEC -17.0 -18.1 1033 61 12 0.00 533 509 FRI 00Z 16-DEC -17.5 -16.5 1031 75 34 0.00 539 515 FRI 06Z 16-DEC -15.9 -15.4 1030 77 88 0.00 542 520 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -13.8 -11.9 1025 75 100 0.03 544 526 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -9.2 -10.8 1019 61 98 0.03 547 532 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -9.0 -8.2 1013 82 95 0.14 545 535 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -8.1 -9.7 1006 87 99 0.32 541 536 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -7.6 -8.7 1004 90 81 0.40 540 537 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -7.7 -10.8 1007 82 97 538 533 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -7.6 -14.3 1011 84 100 533 525 SUN 06Z 18-DEC -14.2 -18.4 1018 76 98 0.46 525 511OSH-FRI 12Z 16-DEC -13.1 -14.2 1025 75 100 0.01 540 521 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -9.1 -13.2 1020 64 99 0.02 542 527 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -8.4 -12.0 1014 76 98 0.08 543 532 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -6.5 -11.9 1008 88 97 0.36 538 532 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -6.4 -10.6 1004 91 91 0.54 537 534 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -6.1 -11.4 1006 88 95 536 531 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -7.4 -14.5 1010 78 98 531 523 SUN 06Z 18-DEC -11.7 -19.1 1016 71 99 0.58 522 510 ORD-FRI 12Z 16-DEC -11.6 -12.1 1026 68 98 0.01 548 528 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -7.4 -9.1 1021 55 93 0.01 551 535 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -6.4 -5.7 1013 70 83 0.04 549 538 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -5.0 -4.4 1005 86 97 0.14 546 542 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -3.3 -1.5 1002 91 72 0.23 546 544 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -2.4 -3.0 1003 85 68 546 544 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -5.7 -9.1 1008 87 100 541 535 SUN 06Z 18-DEC -7.6 -12.9 1013 79 100 0.34 533 523 SUN 12Z 18-DEC -17.4 -18.3 1026 78 11 0.37 528 509MSP-FRI 06Z 16-DEC -16.1 -13.6 1026 78 98 0.02 539 520 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -13.3 -13.1 1020 80 98 0.04 540 524 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -9.7 -13.1 1016 70 98 0.05 541 528 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -9.9 -13.7 1012 85 99 0.17 538 529 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -10.6 -15.3 1010 85 96 0.37 533 525 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -13.8 -16.7 1014 78 99 0.43 530 520 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -16.3 -18.4 1019 63 99 526 511 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -19.7 -23.0 1023 71 87 518 501 SUN 06Z 18-DEC -25.7 -26.2 1028 73 43 0.43 513 493 ALO-FRI 06Z 16-DEC -11.0 -10.6 1026 67 100 0.03 548 529 FRI 12Z 16-DEC -10.2 -9.9 1020 61 93 0.03 549 534 FRI 18Z 16-DEC -6.7 -6.2 1014 65 94 0.04 550 539 SAT 00Z 17-DEC -7.0 -6.5 1007 83 87 0.12 545 539 SAT 06Z 17-DEC -7.5 -8.6 1004 88 89 0.23 541 538 SAT 12Z 17-DEC -9.3 -12.2 1007 85 88 0.26 540 534 SAT 18Z 17-DEC -12.3 -15.5 1013 80 93 537 527 SUN 00Z 18-DEC -17.2 -17.2 1021 76 95 530 515 SUN 06Z 18-DEC -24.2 -21.6 1028 71 42 0.26 523 503 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2016 Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 Is that over an inch qpf? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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