jaster220 Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Can you see the overall basin-wide PAC cooling trend??? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif Between this and your "Arctic Chill" it looks like Ice Age incoming! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Between this and your "Arctic Chill" it looks like Ice Age incoming! All the models busted real bad during the "shoulder" months of Mar/Apr touting a Strong Nino. What a flip I'd say??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 So we're looking at a cool summer and a cold winter? Didn't we have a summer like this before that one super good winter a few years ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 So we're looking at a cool summer and a cold winter? Didn't we have a summer like this before that one super good winter a few years ago?I believe in 2013 we did. Also we had a similar summer in 2009 if I'm not mistaken. Edit. Did some quick checking and looks to me like 2009 would be the perfect match for this summer as far as temp anomalies are concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 I believe in 2013 we did. Also we had a similar summer in 2009 if I'm not mistaken. Edit. Did some quick checking and looks to me like 2009 would be the perfect match for this summer as far as temp anomalies are concerned.Yeah 09 and 13 were chilly. Great winters to follow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 ENSO 1.2 still dropping off..."IF" this El Nino ever does materialize, it certainly favors a Modiki Nino... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2017 Boy, here is another model really backing off the Nino for this Summer. Latest CanSIPS run suggesting a meager Nino, if that??? Summer... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017060100/cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_1.png Autumn... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2017060100/cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_4.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2017 Recent CFSv2 weekly out in "lala" land for NDJ period is even showing hints of "blue" in the central PAC. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Not sure if I buy it, but CPC's long lead forecast still trying to paint a weak Nino with a warmer E PAC for the Summer... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/casst_anom.0.gif Autumn... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201705/casst_anom.3.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Well, it's going to be real tough to get an El Nino forming with a general +SOI this month according to the Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 7, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Well, well, well...latest June NMME run is no longer showing an El Nino, but rather, an ENSO-Neutral La Nada during the course of this Summer/Autumn and next Winter???? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.NMME.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 @ Tom Just see last Dec-March for how that could play out. Namely, other drivers will hold sway and it can go great, or crappy. Thus, not guaranteed. I never bought into a bounce-back to Nino winter. That being said, if this changed from 3 mos ago, what's to say it doesn't paint an entirely different picture 3 mos from today? Maybe it's "trending"? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 8, 2017 Report Share Posted June 8, 2017 Really doubting the chances for an El Niño at this point. Also, odds of a repeat of the last 2 winters would be very slim in my opinion. The QBO flip and low solar will see to that. I'm really looking forward to this coming winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2017 Really doubting the chances for an El Niño at this point. Also, odds of a repeat of the last 2 winters would be very slim in my opinion. The QBO flip and low solar will see to that. I'm really looking forward to this coming winter.Fresh Hot Off the Press: IRI ENSO Forecast CPC/IRI ENSO Update Published: June 8, 2017El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society ENSO Alert System Status: Not ActiveSynopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored (50 to ~55% chance) through the Northern Hemisphere fall 2017. Trends are not favoring an El Nino at this points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2017 During the crucial period when the new LRC develops, the latest October SST 1-month SST difference is incredible. #El Nino fail??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 8, 2017 Report Share Posted June 8, 2017 Well, I guess I made 2 very timely posts today. #FailNiño 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 8, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2017 Well, I guess I made 2 very timely posts today. #FailNiñoI'm curious what the JAMSTEC/EURO/JMA seasonal will be showing for this month. I think the public Euro comes out on the 15th and the JAMSTEC give or take a few days around then. JMA will be out next week Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 9, 2017 Report Share Posted June 9, 2017 Tbh, we are due for a harsh winter...its been a while. FWIW...I miss seeing a full blown blizzard. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2017 A bit more cooling off the coast of Mexico/Baja http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif June 7th depth anomalies showing some small pockets of warmer water trying to upwell... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 11, 2017 Report Share Posted June 11, 2017 Could it be possible?? https://youtu.be/fCLBfROEw6w Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 A bit more cooling off the coast of Mexico/Baja http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif June 7th depth anomalies showing some small pockets of warmer water trying to upwell... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif I've always thought that warmth near Baja in the late autumn and winter months would be a good thing for my area but the last 2 years have proven it not to be. Maybe this year I will get to study if there really was any effect at all from the water Temps in that region and off cali on winter precipitation and temperatures here and points east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 Latest UKMET SST for the Autumn...cooler ENSO 1.2 with warmer waters farther west along the equatorial PAC... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 12, 2017 Report Share Posted June 12, 2017 Could it be possible?? https://youtu.be/fCLBfROEw6w Don't buy the hype..don't fall for it man Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 Don't buy the hype..don't fall for it manHow could you not though, those maps are so amazing. Tbh, sometimes those type of people who forecast end up being correct, instead of the experts. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 13, 2017 Report Share Posted June 13, 2017 How could you not though, those maps are so amazing. Tbh, sometimes those type of people who forecast end up being correct, instead of the experts. Oh, for sure, but I don't think even the experts are taking any serious stabs at next winter from this range And I'll add, that his video calls for a "weak Nino" which looks less and less likely at this point. That's so hard to pull off, has to be the least frequent ENSO state of all time. Ofc, because it's the one that produced stuff of legend in SMI like this: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Oh, for sure, but I don't think even the experts are taking any serious stabs at next winter from this range And I'll add, that his video calls for a "weak Nino" which looks less and less likely at this point. That's so hard to pull off, has to be the least frequent ENSO state of all time. Ofc, because it's the one that produced stuff of legend in SMI like this: Blizzard-1978-Michigan-Highway.jpgDang! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Drum roll please.....latest JAMSTEC says, "No El Nino for the Summer"...since April, most modeling was insisting on a Strong to nearly borderline Super Nino but over the course of just 2 months the models are now collaborating an ENSO neutral Summer season in the equatorial PAC. Here was the JAMSTEC's April run... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1apr2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1apr2017.gif Here is today's latest June run... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2017.1jun2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2017.gif Maybe, just maybe we squeak out a weak Modiki Nino during next Winter...but that is looking less and less likely to get 3-months of .5C or higher. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.ninomdk.fcst.1jun2017.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 15, 2017 The JMA, along with all the other climate models, are all flipping much cooler in the PAC. In fact, the JMA is not showing any signs of warmer waters along the equatorial PAC. Instead, it's almost signaling a ENSO-Neutral look. August... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201706.D1000_gls.png Sept... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201706.D1000_gls.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 Last but not least, the Euro is following the trends of every other climate model. #SummerNinoFail... Here were the last 3 months of runs starting from April... There is still a lot of variability as to what happens next Fall/Winter but it's not looking very favorable for an El Nino at this stage of the game. Many more negative anomaly plumes showing up for the first time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2017 EURO mean SST anomalies...the cooler waters near the Baja of Cali are intriguing. Subtropical connect? ASO... SON... OND... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Here was the IRI/CPC mid-May Plume... http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/figure4-2.gif Compare that to the recent mid-June Plume...clearly, the trend is backing away... http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/figure4.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted June 17, 2017 Report Share Posted June 17, 2017 Makes me wonder whether all this has any positive or negative factors in our upcoming winter, or, if any. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 19, 2017 The cooling trend in the eastern equatorial PAC continues...I wonder if the cold Antarctic winter is aiding in this development... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif You can see the colder anomalies growing up from the south... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 Today, the Australian Gov't has officially cancelled the El Nino Watch for the second half of 2017: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?CID=009tw33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 I'm going to change the name of this thread to a general "2017 ENSO Discussion". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 CFSv2 trying to cool the central/eastern PAC for the heart of next Winter...still suggesting a ring of warmth in the N PAC and warm eastern coastline... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 I'm going to change the name of this thread to a general "2017 ENSO Discussion". Or "hunting the ever-elusive weak Nino", which looks to escape capture once again. Did you at one time post a graphic showing the weak nino happens only 20% of the time (that there's a nino, that is)? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 Or "hunting the ever-elusive weak Nino", which looks to escape capture once again. Did you at one time post a graphic showing the weak nino happens only 20% of the time (that there's a nino, that is)?I don't think so. It may have been someone else. With that being said, ENSO-neutral conditions would be ideal for many of us on here for next winter if you want the cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 Yeah. I'd even take a weak Niña at this point as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted June 20, 2017 Report Share Posted June 20, 2017 I don't think so. It may have been someone else. With that being said, ENSO-neutral conditions would be ideal for many of us on here for next winter if you want the cold. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't we go into last winter in NEUT range, only to have the winter play out like a Nino, thus all the "Nino hang-over" talk? Certainly Cali folks got the Nino treatment a year later than expected 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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