Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Total QPF: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022300/072/qpf_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 NAM has been coming southThat's true. I meant it's the one that is furthest north. I keep thinking this is starting earlier tomorrow, when the real show for this area and northeast isn't until tomorrow night and Friday. Still some model runs to see what happens! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022300/072/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Milwaukee gets almost as much snow as MSP on the GEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Local met just mentioned the SE shift on the 10 news and said more counties to the SE will proll be added into the Watch 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Local met just mentioned the SE shift on the 10 news and said more counties to the SE will proll be added into the Watch Zomg!!! They never do that around here! Local mets in Iowa suck when it comes to winter storms. Imho. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Im still amazed at the SE trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Im still amazed at the SE trend.Me too! Now if it goes back nw tomorrow I'm never tracking a winter storm again!! Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Local met just mentioned the SE shift on the 10 news and said more counties to the SE will proll be added into the Watch Had to be Terry Swails, right? I like him. But I don't watch channel 2 very often Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 I would honestly not pay attention to the GFS/GEM/EURO etc after tonight. Start pay attention to the shorter term models (RAP/HRRR/NAM/RGEM) These are typically the better models within 24 hours or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Zomg!!! They never do that around here! Local mets in Iowa suck when it comes to winter storms. Imho. Ikr? Schnack is way conservative but even he mentioned it tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Had to be Terry Swails, right? I like him. But I don't watch channel 2 very oftenNo it was Schnack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Zomg!!! They never do that around here! Local mets in Iowa suck when it comes to winter storms. Imho.The ones in the DSM market are so pro warm weather its disgusting. Ed Wilson on 13 is the king.-- and a horrible met. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Storm is just starting to develop in Kansas on the RAP/HRRR at the end of their runs. RAP: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2017022303/021/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 I like the Schnack but I think he's too conswrvative sometimes. Better than than Ian guy we had a while ago. We could have had a 10000 year blizzard and he would have said flurries!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Ukie at 48: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 And the Ukie at 36 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 And the Ukie at 36 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif Looks like it occludes and shifts east? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Looks like it occludes and shifts east?Ya all the globals have quite a similar track so far tonight.... We will see what Dr. No says later tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Ukie actually deepens at 60 and throws some nice precip on the backside--- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Looks like models are converging on a track from NE KS to northern MO/SE IA and then ENE up towards Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Looks like models are converging on a track from NE KS to northern MO/SE IA and then ENE up towards Chicago.La crosse still riding 5-10 inches north of a austin mn to winona mn line. with the caveat at the end of their wording that they dont know what the hell to think This was right before the GFS and the GGEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 La crosse still riding 5-10 inches north of a austin mn to winona mn line. with the caveat at the end of their wording that they dont know what the hell to think This was right before the GFS and the GGEM I don't blame them. This setup screams NW trend. Obv. lack of snowcover/warm temps etc but who knows. Models are consistent with a SE track the last day or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 I don't blame them. This setup screams NW trend. Obv. lack of snowcover/warm temps etc but who knows. Models are consistent with a SE track the last day or so.agree... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 ensembles are slow tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Ukie precip totals: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif 20 MM= 0.8 QPF25 MM= 1.0 QPF30 MM= 1.2 QPF35 MM= 1.4 QPF Roughly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 ensembles are slow tonight GFS ensembles looked pretty locked in Looks similar to 18z but more in the heaviest band? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Was just gonna ask what Ukie QPF looked like.....thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 GFS ensembles looked pretty locked in Looks similar to 18z but more in the heaviest band?About the same maybe even a little less in the mean for the heaviest band. They are pretty locked in though at least it seems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 About the same maybe even a little less in the mean for the heaviest band. They are pretty locked in though at least it seems Looks like less QPF hence the lower totals. Overall though not bad. 8+ for here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Looks like less QPF hence the lower totals. Overall though not bad. 8+ for here.Ya its still.solid... Hoping the euro doesnt cut back qpf as the other globals havent tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 MSP discussion850FXUS63 KMPX 230352 AABAFDMPXArea Forecast Discussion...UPDATEDNational Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN952 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017.UPDATE...Issued at 952 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017The 00Z guidance is beginning to come in and the NAM remainsthe furthest west with the axis of heaviest snowfall amongst theglobal models (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian). It has trended southeastslightly with time, but it has a lot more trending to do beforecatching up with the southeasternmost guidance. The 00Z GFS hastrended even further east and now barely scrapes the metro withmeasurable snow. Confidence is much lower than 24 hours ago.Generally, south central Minnesota to west central Wisconsinremains the best area for heavy accumulations and the big questionis where the back edge of the snow will set up. Right now thereis too little confidence to answer that question and will need towait for the rest of the 00Z guidance. Therefore, there are noplans to adjust the headlines yet, however it is looking increasinglylikely some of the Winter Storm Watch will need to be cancelled.Did adjust PoPs and snow amounts according to the 00Z model trend.Further adjustments will be needed overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 I give up on winter in this D**n state. My towel is currently reaching escape velocity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Euro riding iowa border at 36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Very similar track Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Another shift SE with the snow band tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Another shift SE with the snow band thoYa especially your way. Subtle changes further west... Has to be overdoing ratios here though. Spits out like 19 inches here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Over 8-9 here on the euro looks like it has a good backside snow as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Does anyone have Euro maps or text?! Thanks in advance! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 23, 2017 Report Share Posted February 23, 2017 Lnk please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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