March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Geos]

I've always had that feeling. Models even suck within 24 hours

 

Probably a few more nickel and dimers left.

[Jaycee]

 

My brother sent me this picture from Red Wing Minnesota, this is a snowbank at the end of our driveway. Apparently there closing in on 3' on the ground!

[East Dubzz]

Probably a few more nickel and dimers left.

Yup, I totally agree with you there. Honestly, my feeling is that once the pattern changes, we're gonna get one more big storm but it'll cut too far NW due to lack of blocking. Just a guess, but I would be willing to bet that happens in March and then after that comes spring..

[Iowawx]

12Z GGEM paints a very snowy picture through March 10. Shows robust clipper on March 5, followed by a large storm March 8-9. Both could dump several inches of snow if this solution verifies.

[East Dubzz]

High of 38 forecasted for next Friday. Some zonal flow coming through the area, those mild temps will feel pretty nice.

[Geos]

Yup, I totally agree with you there. Honestly, my feeling is that once the pattern changes, we're gonna get one more big storm but it'll cut too far NW due to lack of blocking. Just a guess, but I would be willing to bet that happens in March and then after that comes spring..

 

EURO is pretty nice really after Wednesday. (Maybe Wednesday if it's under doing temps in the mid 20s). Predicting mid 40s next Friday both here and there.

 

Then slightly cooler Saturday before bouncing back to the 30s - low 40s for the rest of time to 240 hours.

[Money]

GFS shows another 6-8 inches of snow in WI/MN/IA etc it looks like through HR 150

[Geos]

EURO ends up parking the PV center at the 850 mb level over northern Hudson Bay/Baffin Island in the medium range.

 

[Money]

GGEM continuing to show that nice cutter in the HR 144-168 range. Would be a nice snowstorm for IA/WI. Might be a tad warm for ORD tho initially. 

[Iowawx]

Money, I noticed that to, but does the GGEM has a bias for being too snowy or wet?? Local NWS says all systems will be moisture straved and weak throughout the week, but I would LOVE to see the GGEM solution verify. Hopefully it does. But may want to watch Wed because GGEM has a solid 3+ event and we are not too far away and other models are weak with that event. Some models have rain.

 

Does that storm around March 8 fit the LRC??

[Money]

Money, I noticed that to, but does the GGEM has a bias for being too snowy or wet?? Local NWS says all systems will be moisture straved and weak throughout the week, but I would LOVE to see the GGEM solution verify. Hopefully it does. But may want to watch Wed because GGEM has a solid 3+ event and we are not too far away and other models are weak with that event. Some models have rain.

 

Does that storm around March 8 fit the LRC??

 

The GGEM storm isn't until this weekend. All storms this week will probably be moisture starved tho.

 

Couple clippers this week, and then a potential cutter with bigger snows after that.

[East Dubzz]

GGEM has been wayyy too juiced all year long, that's for sure. If the GGEM was right, I'd have like 80" for the year..

[Tom]

The system next weekend showing up on the GGEM fits the storm that hit Jan 10th and cut through N IL that brought rain.  This system during Cycle 1 brought a massive severe wx outbreak in November 15th that also cut through N IL.

[Tom]

D**n, that is some cold air invading the nation tonight...any other normal year this would be and arctic outbreak in January let along March 2nd...

 

[Money]

How's the EURO look snow wise for the next week or so Tom? Seems like it's back to a colder look in the long-run except towards HR 240 where a cutter is trying to form.

[Tom]

00z Euro trying to develop something next Fri/Sat but looking like a frontal system that lays down some snows in MN/WI.  Keeps temps below normal through next week.  Not much of a warm up till maybe next Tuesday but that's long range.

[East Dubzz]

Well, I hit -1 early this morning, so add another sub-zero day to the total! March is definitely coming in like a lion..

[Niko]

Next week, 50's might be showing up folks.....major warm-up possibly. I think winter looses its grip very fast come next week as 40s take over and from time to time we get colder into the 30s for highs. Rains will be taking over as well and with all that melting snow, flooding real become a real issue.

 

I still hope I can break that all-time record snowfall for the season. I am only around 10inches, give or take away. Currently 83.1". Record is 93.2".

[Geos]

Well, I hit -1 early this morning, so add another sub-zero day to the total! March is definitely coming in like a lion..

 

Yeah definitely.

 

Waking up to about 6° here. Still cloudy, but the sun will be out soon.

 

 

Have already had about 96% of the normal snowfall for March. 5.2"

[Geos]

Next week, 50's might be showing up folks.....major warm-up possibly. I think winter looses its grip very fast come next week as 40s take over and from time to time we get colder into the 30s for highs. Rains will be taking over as well and with all that melting snow, flooding real become a real issue.

 

I still hope I can break that all-time record snowfall for the season. I am only around 10inches, give or take away. Currently 83.1". Record is 93.2".

 

I see the EURO has the 50s on the 11th. Probably near 40° later this week. We will definitely be in the freezer another 3 days before moderation.

 

It really does look like the 6z GFS breaks the cold after next Saturday (Saturday doesn't look as cold now).

 

Lot of warm air filling up the Plains and South by 186.

 

[james1976]

i had -12 at 8am this morning

[East Dubzz]

Dubuque total officially up to 55.2"...

[Money]

GFS showing 7-8 for Chicago in the next 4-5 days or so.

[Niko]

I see the EURO has the 50s on the 11th. Probably near 40° later this week. We will definitely be in the freezer another 3 days before moderation.

 

It really does look like the 6z GFS breaks the cold after next Saturday (Saturday doesn't look as cold now).

 

Lot of warm air filling up the Plains and South by 186.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2014030206/east/gfs_t2m_max_east_63.png

I agree.

[Geos]

GFS showing 7-8 for Chicago in the next 4-5 days or so.

 

Then that would put them between 80-81" for the annual tally.

[Money]

GFS has one day above 32 through the next 11-12 days. 

[Iowawx]

GFS backs off on warmth next week. Now showing several clippers that week and some of them are decent events. We'll see if this is right but it would mean more snow and cold.

 

 

EDIT: Now showing lots of snow with lots of clippers on the entire run. No signs of spring at all on this run.

[Money]

GFS backs off on warmth next week. Now showing several clippers that week and some of them are decent events. We'll see if this is right but it would mean more snow and cold.

 

Yeah, it has below zero temps on March 15th along with another snowstorm for IA/IL. 

[Money]

5.1" total at ORD. Now the 4th snowiest season on record at 73.4".

 

1) 89.7 IN. 1978-1979

2) 82.3 IN. 1977-1978

3) 77.0 IN. 1969-1970

4) 73.4 IN. 2013-2014 still going

5) 68.4 IN. 1966-1967

6) 66.4 IN. 1951-1952

7) 64.1 IN. 1917-1918

8) 62.8 IN. 2013-2014

9) 60.3 IN. 2007-2008

 

Should easily pass 3rd place.

 

2nd place is still a question mark. 1st place is out of the question most likely. 

[Money]

GGEM continuing to show that cutter type storm between HR 120 and HR 144. it may be just a TAD too warm, but:

 

Colored Maps:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_108.jpg

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120.jpg

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_132.jpg

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[East Dubzz]

We play spring baseball here, and our first practice is Tuesday. I'l literally starting to get worried that we may not have a baseball season the way this is going..

[tim the weatherman]

this is noaa is forcasting that by mid month that the ao will be positve so the cold air will be coming to an end by mid monthhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Edited March 2, 2014 by the24weatherman

[East Dubzz]

this is noaa is forcasting that by mid month that the ao will be positve so the cold air will be coming to an end by midmonth

Well it depends on how positive and how long it stays that way, and that doesn't mean for sure the cold will go away. There are other indexes that could give a better insight, I'll have to look them up in a little bit when I get computer access..

[Geos]

GFS has a cold bias so I wouldn't buy its temperatures past Day 5. I figure on this run as it is, I can count 4 days above freezing for N IL, S WI: 7, 9, 10, and 14th.

 

There will be more days above freezing than that... it's March afterall.

 

The AO is a good point 24weatherman. The EURO takes both the NAO and AO to +2 by the 7th. EPO goes positive for awhile too.

 

(+AO means no blocking really - low pressure over the Arctic)

[Tom]

The pattern we are going to head into following this weekend will turn into a more NW Flow with a "Clipper Train" pattern, one such pattern we experienced for about 2 weeks straight in January (I believe we saw 8 or 9 Clippers during that period).  I don't believe these will be moisture starved Clippers at this time.  Reason being is that any one of these Clippers can turn into much larger systems that can tap into more moisture this time around since we are in the month of March and the clash of air masses will fuel these systems.  It's conceivable that our region may pile on the snowfall this month and people will start wondering IF there will ever be a Spring this year.  This could become a record setting month not only for Cold, but Snow.

[Scott26]

This is the winter that never ends. Right when guidance begins to show a warm up in the long range it never seems to come to fruition or just doesn't last very long.

[Money]

GFS has a cold bias so I wouldn't buy its temperatures past Day 5. I figure on this run as it is, I can count 4 days above freezing for N IL, S WI: 7, 9, 10, and 14th.

 

There will be more days above freezing than that... it's March afterall.

 

The AO is a good point 24weatherman. The EURO takes both the NAO and AO to +2 by the 7th. EPO goes positive for awhile too.

 

GGEM is the same type of look as the GFS. One day as a clipper goes by to the north of above freezing weather and then back into the 10's and 20's following until the end of it's run.

[Tom]

JB has been talking in his Wx Bell videos on occasion and showing neat neat graphic how models tend to overdo warm ups this year, and more in line with cool downs.  I wouldn't be surprised to see models correct colder this week on the Euro.  GGEM/GFS are pretty much in the same camp.

 

BTW, its gorgeous out there today with the sun out and a fresh snow cover.  This could become a very snowy week around here.  Would love to see how deep we can stack up this snow cover this month.  The potential system this weekend worries me around here in N IL that it could be rain.  Still a lot of time to see how things work out.

[Money]

Ukie/GFS really don't have the system. Euro kinda did on it's 0z run.

[Geos]

I think we have a higher chance at setting some more impressive snowfall tallies, but not so much cold after this week. The reason is... if we're near the boundary layer between Canadian air and milder Gulf/southern Plains air then the combination of more clouds, moisture, higher sun angle will keep the departure from getting too crazy. On the flip side if this "battle zone" sets up south then it would be colder. 

 

... If we get a cutter or any ol' rain system and kills most of the snow cover, then probably everything afterwards will end up being milder than any other model is showing.

 

Few pics of the snow this morning.