March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

If this track stays put, I like where we stand because it will give us wiggle room for a jog NW as this system bombs out.  The trend on intensifying systems this year (which I recall have been 1 or 2) have been NW.  Euro has had a good handle on dynamic systems so I'm optimistic IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI are very much in the game with this storm mid next week.

[Tom]

12z Euro still has about .50qpf mid week's system at ORD...

[Money]

So euro would be 6-8 probably (decent ratios) GGEM would be 10+

 

How far is ORD from the record right now?

[tim the weatherman]

the+ao supposed to be in neutral state by 13th of the month then afterwards it goes right back up.

[Tom]

As of 12:00pm, ORD is officially at 75.2"...one more big system and we could set the record.  So far ORD has had 6.8" of snow in March and it won't surprise me to see a huge month over here.

[Niko]

I cannot believe how close this baby is next week in giving me lots of snow and breaking my all time record snowfall. I just need it a bit more N movement. Im in the 3-4inch raange with this model run, but hopefully it will jog more N. Unbelievable how close this is to being a major snowstorm for my area.

[tim the weatherman]

the ao is still forcasted to go positive the pna stiil going negative the pdo still going positive the nao is still going neutral to positive and by mid month so that means by the 16th we are looking at a spring pattern btw skilling just said on facebook that the pv is over quebec canada for monday.

[Geos]

the ao is still forcasted to go positive the pna stiil going negative the pdo still going positive the nao is still going neutral to positive and by mid month so that means by the 16th we are looking at a spring pattern btw skilling just said on facebook that the pv is over quebec canada for monday.

 

EURO agrees.

 

[Tom]

The24Weatherman, let's make a friendly bet...if you think Spring will arrive around March 16-18th...I'll make a friendly bet with you that we see the exact opposite and a major push of late season arctic air.  I have many reasons for my thinking, but I will reveal 2 of them that have worked for me this season:

 

1)  LRC pattern will repeat what we saw mid January when we had a 2 week period of brutal sustained cold

2)  NE Pacific warm waters re-establish Alaskan ridge

 

 

Deal???

[tim the weatherman]

The24Weatherman, let's make a friendly bet...if you think Spring will arrive around March 16-18th...I'll make a friendly bet with you that we see the exact opposite and a major push of late season arctic air.  I have many reasons for my thinking, but I will reveal 2 of them that have worked for me this season:

 

1)  LRC pattern will repeat what we saw mid January when we had a 2 week period of brutal sustained cold

2)  NE Pacific warm waters re-establish Alaskan ridge

 

 

Deal???

(deal) it is going to all the way up to the 20th of this month with below normal temps.

[tim the weatherman]

EURO agrees.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014030512/noram/ecmwf_z500a_noram_20.png

skilling  just said that beginning of next week that we will a mini warm spell and after that we will be slightly below temps and by that we will be in slightly above temps.

[Tony]

skilling  just said that beginning of next week that we will a mini warm spell and after that we will be slightly below temps and by that we will be in slightly above temps.

You cannot be slightly below temperatures and still be in the slightly above temps, its one or the other.

 

The models are showing a "mini warm spell" but it will not last very long and we know how models tend to change in the long range.

[Money]

Nevermind.

[FiNsTa]

Some of the posts on here are hilarious

[tim the weatherman]

You cannot be slightly below temperatures and still be in the slightly above temps, its one or the other.

 

The models are showing a "mini warm spell" but it will not last very long and we know how models tend to change in the long range.

beginning of this week is warmer from mid week into late week is colder and after that it is going to be warmer.

[tim the weatherman]

the little clipper we had today i am thinking will be our last snow for this winter season.

[East Dubzz]

Some of the posts on here are hilarious

Go follow the PNW thread and this is just another day at the office. Lol.

[Tony]

From hrs 168-204 on the 18z GFS it is looking like a LES outbreak on this side of the lake. I have never seen a long duration like that before.

 

With this warm spell for early part of next week I can see some of the ice breaking apart on LM and creating more open waters.

[tim the weatherman]

tom skilling just said on facebook that the next two weeks we will have below normal temps.

[The Snowman]

These storm threats for mid-March are very real. Expect these risks to continue until roughly March 20th.

[weatherfan2012]

Tom...all I need is a big storm to break my snowfall record......PLEASE...provide your magic powers and throw one out. I hear next week we could be looking at something. Latest EURO buries the east coast from feet of snow next week.

It could go either way. March throws curve balls, so I'm not sure what the exact outcome will be after next Tuesday. 

 

It shall be interesting to watch the foreign vs. domestic models.

I agree geos caution must be use next week.the models last week showed monday storm being a major hit in the northeast and it ended being a moderate at best storm for va and md in other words models are having trouble dispicking this pattern.i would wrait until early next week to see how the pattern is lineing up with reality.

[tim the weatherman]

this is what noaa is fore casting for the next two weeks with blocking showing up after tuesday of next week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[tim the weatherman]

Not necessarily true, if a Bearing Sea Low develops west of the Gulf of Alaska, that pumps a ridge on the west coast and produces a trough in the east.  However, if a GOA Low develops, that will flood the country with warmth.  You need to pay attention to where this develops.

that is true tom i was looking at the noaa blocking page that we might be looking at a high pressure over the gulf of alaska so ridging will be present to spring.

[tim the weatherman]

as of right now the ridging over alaska is present that it is gong no where after tommorow the blocking over alaska weakens and move over northeast siberia after that then it toally collapses that the what tom has just said that a bering sea low develops in the 8 day forecast by noaa climate predicion center.

[Andrew NE]

@ the24weatherman, man I am confused of what side of the fence you are on, a couple weeks ago you were calling for a huge storm 18"-24" I believe when models were maxed out at 2-4" and now you are on the warm weather train when the temps have been greatly below normal in your area all winter long. You keep things interesting in here sir.

[MKEstorm]

Some of the posts on here are hilarious

 

LOL! Absolutely!!!

[Geos]

the little clipper we had today i am thinking will be our last snow for this winter season.

 

I think that is the last Clipper this season. Could be one more 2-4" storm though. Or a 3-5", but it will originate from a different area.

 

Not going to bet on anything past day 5. I think this area in general will have highs no lower than 10 degrees from freezing from here on out starting next week.

 

Everyone is hyped up about the forecast starting tomorrow. I saw kids playing basketball this evening out on their driveway!

 

Edit: NAM showing this Friday night.

 

[tim the weatherman]

just watched the 7 day forecast on wgn tv and tom skilling just said that the daytime on monday will be 50 degrees and he said that we will get lobes after lobes of mild and warmer air from the pacific and he said that the warmth will increased in intensity and i don't think that we will not have any more big snowstorms rest of winter mabe the upper midwest.

[East Dubzz]

Hey guys,

 

Just was on a little cruise and I really took time to reflect about the snow on the ground and the winter we've had, because honestly, who really knows what will happen from this point on. What a great snow cover we have right now, it's incredible. The fresh layer we got this morning really makes everything look nice. But, with temps set to start taking a bit of a spike, I will probably not have this much snow on the ground for the rest of the year unless we get some big crazy snow. The piles of snow on the driveway are awesome to see, especially given the time of year it is and the amount of 1-3" snowfalls we've had this year, meaning it really has to stay cold to continue to build it up like that.

 

What a winter it's been guys. It's one that I certainly will not forget anytime soon. It may not be over, but even if it is, this has just been something else. In the meantime, though, on the ride home I got thinking about spring storms and summertime bonfires...although I'm a huge winter fan, I think those things sound pretty awesome as well.

 

So, I say, let's get one big storm but let the warming continue!

 

My highs for the next 5 days: 28, 38, 30, 34, and 41...

 

Spring is almost here..

 

[Geos]

^ That gif cracked me up so much! 

 

Temperature rising tonight with an east wind. Currently at the days high of 20°.

 

My highs starting tomorrow: 29°, 41°, 29°, 34°, 42°, 38°, 34°

[East Dubzz]

^ That gif cracked me up so much!

 

Temperature rising tonight with an east wind. Currently at the days high of 20°.

 

My highs starting tomorrow: 29°, 41°, 29°, 34°, 42°, 38°, 34°

Someone passed that along to me today, I had been planning on posting that all day, it's too funny!

 

As for tonight, it's down to 9 here. DVN talked about some temps bottoming out in the single digits if clearing took place, which is did obviously. Wind is from the east now, though, so temps shouldn't drop too much more.

[Money]

GFS suppressed. GGEM has a strong clipper with good snows here and in Wisco. 

 

Ukie/Euro aren't out yet.

[Money]

Hey Tom, what does the weatherbell maps look like? Not sure if it is all snow or how much is actually frozen precip. 

 

Thanks.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...nothing special this run.  I thought the 00z GFS was on the right track but transfers its energy to the east way to fast.

[tim the weatherman]

this a feature graghic from chicago weather centerhttp://tribunecwcblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/featuregraphic030614.jpg

[East Dubzz]

Down to 3 degrees here. Definitely a little colder than I was anticipating. Slowly dropping still, could get awfully close to around 0 degrees again..

 

Actually, I see there is a slight overcast now, so that should limit temps from really dropping too much..

[Geos]

Nice graphic. 

 

Fairly mild this morning. Low of 15°, but should be rising fairly quickly.

 

AO is 1.15 today.

[tim the weatherman]

Nice graphic. 

 

Fairly mild this morning. Low of 15°, but should be rising fairly quickly.

 

AO is 1.15 today.

thanks geos that i was watching tom skilling 7 day forecast and he said that the warm spells will increase in frequency and the blocking is not present and winter will be done by the 16th of this month by+ao and -pna.

[Niko]

Yup...I agree...my forecasts has me in the 40s and maybe, just maybe topping at near 50F by late next week.

[Geos]

thanks geos that i was watching tom skilling 7 day forecast and he said that the warm spells will increase in frequency and the blocking is not present and winter will be done by the 16th of this month by+ao and -pna.

 

See-saw pattern. Everything will be transient for awhile.