Jump to content
The Weather Forums

December 2022 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

The models are consistent for the Meteorological winter to start with a BANG!

 

Cold temperatures are expected to spill into the CONUS by the first weekend of the month. 

  • Like 1

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Iceresistance changed the title to December 2022 Observations and Discussion
  • Tom pinned this topic
8 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The models are consistent for the Meteorological winter to start with a BANG!

 

Cold temperatures are expected to spill into the CONUS by the first weekend of the month. 

Thanks for whipping up this thread.  I was considering doing it also sometime today...anyway, I like where this month is heading and you guys down south south prepare for some winter fun by mid month.  I foresee a SW Flow pattern to develop and when you marry that with a deep -AO/NAO/EPO...Hello!  All systems a "GO!"

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

JMA weeklies are showing the cold pressing and bleeding south come Week 2 and I saw that the 00z/06z GEFS have trended this way.  The pattern is ripe for a lot of moisture to blossom along a thermal gradient pattern from the S Plains into the OHV/MW/Lower Lakes.  Could bet interesting through the 10th of the month.

 

image.png

 

image.png

 

 

Week 3-4...starting to see a signal for more widespread Eastern CONUS cold...

 

image.png

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Tom One of the best looking JMA temp maps I can remember. Ofc, I'm hoping it will be "just cold enough" to get me into some SN action and not just a bunch of 33F and RN. Nina Dec's have gone big here in the past, so that's a positive thing. 

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Is that giant Gulf of Mexico 500mb high pressure showing up around the turn of the month and the first few days of December going to be a problem, and is it a feature of this year's LRC?

Yes it's showing up on the first but it don't think it will have a lot of staying power.  It is part of this years pattern, seems like there is always something to complicate our chances of snow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Is that giant Gulf of Mexico 500mb high pressure showing up around the turn of the month and the first few days of December going to be a problem, and is it a feature of this year's LRC?

Yup, think back when I commented on this part of the pattern back in OCT and I believe we discussed this GOM ridge.  This cycle it will influence our pattern but not as warm due to the counter-influencing teleconnections.  We really have to thank that massive dip in the -NAO along with the -EPO, otherwise, we would certainly be Blow Torching Big time.  Many times this has happen in previous years, esp in DEC, where those teleconnections just didn't work out in our favor.  Not this year.  

image.png

 

image.png

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here...It...Comes....0z Euro op showing what will likely be the strongest SSW event so far this season....check out the cold 10mb Strat temps over Russia/Siberia on Dec 1st and then within a matter of 4 days a MAJOR reversal in this part of the world.  All the global models are jumping on this idea.   

image.png

 

image.png

  • Like 4
  • scream 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Clinton said:

Yes it's showing up on the first but it don't think it will have a lot of staying power.  It is part of this years pattern, seems like there is always something to complicate our chances of snow.

Some years ago, in the MI forum, we were talking about the winter outlook and one guy was making the point that a suddenly active solar (i.e high sunspot count) can mess with an otherwise promising pattern or tele-connections. Just heard that there's a massive sunspot discovered on the far side of the sun. Not sure what/who we have out there looking at the far side of the sun to even know this? Did we deploy a telescope out there or something? That would be more than 92,955,828 miles to do so. 

  • Like 1
  • lol 2

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS bringin' the juice going into the 1st MET winter month! Hoping this trend is our friend all winter:

gfs_apcpn_ncus_23.png

  • Like 3

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ik it is d10, but both EC and GFS flashing something in that timeframe that could be the 1st favorable synoptic set-up for the S Lakes?

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

  • Snow 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Ik it is d10, but both EC and GFS flashing something in that timeframe that could be the 1st favorable synoptic set-up for the S Lakes?

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Yeah, I've been keeping an eye on that Dec 5-7 period.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Ik it is d10, but both EC and GFS flashing something in that timeframe that could be the 1st favorable synoptic set-up for the S Lakes?

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

The system on Dec 7th is when I predicted KC to receive their first inch of snow in Lezaks snowflake contest he does here locally.  Lets see how it goes.

  • Like 2
  • Popcorn 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anything can happen at this range- but not overly enthused about the current trends. A storm (maybe 2) will happen up until about the 8-10th for the  Plains/Midwest --- but then it looks dry and cold with storm track shoved to the Far South.  Miss the storms (which DSM does a good job of) and it's a whisky on the rocks (brown and cold) for sometime until after the next warmup/moisture  which doesnt look like until mid-DEC.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Anything can happen at this range- but not overly enthused about the current trends. A storm (maybe 2) will happen up until about the 8-10th for the  Plains/Midwest --- but then it looks dry and cold with storm track shoved to the Far South.  Miss the storms (which DSM does a good job of) and it's a whisky on the rocks (brown and cold) for sometime until after the next warmup/moisture  which doesnt look like until mid-DEC.

Unfortunately, what's bad for yby is most likely exactly what I need over here in the UHI hot box.

  • Like 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I would think the models will be picking up on some brutal cold coming up soon.  MJO moving into phase 8 today and the NAO is now forecasted to go off the charts negative on Dec 5th.

ECMF.png

1669528800-F8wGfqGhcvkgrb2.png

I'm fascinated how the models in recent days have ALL gone towards the blocked up 7+ day period that transpired OCT 13th-21st, sending multiple waves of energy under the  Belly of the "Hudson Bay Beast"...I just thought of this name for the aforementioned Long Wave pattern during this cycle of the LRC.  If that's the case, then the cycle length is rough 47-50 days?  What do you guys think?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'm fascinated how the models in recent days have ALL gone towards the blocked up 7+ day period that transpired OCT 13th-21st, sending multiple waves of energy under the  Belly of the "Hudson Bay Beast"...I just thought of this name for the aforementioned Long Wave pattern during this cycle of the LRC.  If that's the case, then the cycle length is rough 47-50 days?  What do you guys think?

Completely agree I have been using 49 days so 47-50 would be right in line.  It should make for some great timing on some storm systems.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Completely agree I have been using 49 days so 47-50 would be right in line.  It should make for some great timing on some storm systems.

Ya, I thought about the cycle length a bit more today and I'm starting to lean on a tad longer length centering around 49 days.  Last night's 0z GFS picked up on the OCT 22nd Hurricane in the E PAC that hit Mexico.  It also saw the "Inside Slider" that hit SoCal back on OCT 15th and tracked into the 4 corners which showed up on DEC 4th/5th per the latest 0z GFS.  It's fun trying to dig into the data and figuring out this LRC pattern.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

Ya, I thought about the cycle length a bit more today and I'm starting to lean on a tad longer length centering around 49 days.  Last night's 0z GFS picked up on the OCT 22nd Hurricane in the E PAC that hit Mexico.  It also saw the "Inside Slider" that hit SoCal back on OCT 15th and tracked into the 4 corners which showed up on DEC 4th/5th per the latest 0z GFS.  It's fun trying to dig into the data and figuring out this LRC pattern.

@mlgamer is good at matching up those 500mb maps.  The features have been lining up well at 49 days.  Biggest difference is that we dont have the high PNA this time.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@mlgamer is good at matching up those 500mb maps.  The features have been lining up well at 49 days.  Biggest difference is that we dont have the high PNA this time.

Good point...I like where this pattern is heading as we enter the first full week of DEC...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Using my newfound friend the LRC, looks like my hope of no snowstorms while I'm gone Dec 5-9 will be in vain. We had a system move through on 10/26 and 10/27, which if my calculations are right and factoring in your guys thoughts on the LRC number of days, it would peg another system to hit during that week. Luckily we only received 0.19 inches of precip during that system so hopefully it will stay in that lane and not be the big kahuna.

Looking further into the future, we had a system move through on 11/10 that dropped 0.28 in precip, our biggest storm of the cycle. If that were to repeat it would be centered on either side of Christmas weekend (someone correct me if I'm wrong as I'm still learning to apply this). Good timing!

  • Like 2
  • Popcorn 1

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Using my newfound friend the LRC, looks like my hope of no snowstorms while I'm gone Dec 5-9 will be in vain. We had a system move through on 10/26 and 10/27, which if my calculations are right and factoring in your guys thoughts on the LRC number of days, it would peg another system to hit during that week. Luckily we only received 0.19 inches of precip during that system so hopefully it will stay in that lane and not be the big kahuna.

Looking further into the future, we had a system move through on 11/10 that dropped 0.28 in precip, our biggest storm of the cycle. If that were to repeat it would be centered on either side of Christmas weekend (someone correct me if I'm wrong as I'm still learning to apply this). Good timing!

Your doing great and I think a lot of us will be excited around Christmas!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Looks like 18Z GFS is locking into that cold air after the December 7th storm. 

confluence presses further south, shears out/suppresses the 7th storm. 

Hopefully we can get a good snow from that storm around the 7th.  Just want to see it actually look and act like winter in December.  Anyone around Chicago metro knows how awful the month of December has been lately.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hopefully we can get a good snow from that storm around the 7th.  Just want to see it actually look and act like winter in December.  Anyone around Chicago metro knows how awful the month of December has been lately.

Any snow from the 7th that we do get looks to stick around a while.  Hopefully sets the stage

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Anyone have a site they use to view old 500mb patterns from over the past couple months? The sites I have bookmarked don't go back that far. 

I used this link off the WPC site but it only does Surface Analysis...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/sfc/sfc_archive_maps.php?arcdate=11/28/2022&selmap=2022112800&maptype=namfntsfc

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The system during the 12/7 timeframe is not looking favorable for any snows south of the I-80 corridor...this is the type of system you would like to see happen that will pay dividends down the road for those farther south bc most of the region across the Upper MW/GL's is snow free and you'd like to see snow OTG as we head into the middle of DEC.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Once we get into the latter parts of Week 1, the atmosphere typically has a delayed response to the -NAO block among the other players on the field.  I am really impressed how much blocking is developing in the high lats as we get deeper into DEC.  This month is certainly going to have a much more different Winter-Feel compared to recent DEC's over the past Decade.

image.png

 

The relaxation of the -PNA is also a key ingredient as we do NOT want to see a stout -PNA, more of a slightly neg to neutral is much more favorable for our Sub.

image.png

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Tom said:

The system during the 12/7 timeframe is not looking favorable for any snows south of the I-80 corridor...this is the type of system you would like to see happen that will pay dividends down the road for those farther south bc most of the region across the Upper MW/GL's is snow free and you'd like to see snow OTG as we head into the middle of DEC.

Beyond the 7th, I think it's going to depend how far south the confluence sets up, and subsequently storm track. Certainly central Wisconsin and similar lat are looking good.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The one and only time I will actively root against a snowstorm. Not only because I'd miss it, but my wife really does not like the idea of having a huge snowfall while I'm gone. While she does OK driving in the snow, I am much more comfortable with it than her.

Luckily the GFS remains the sole model showing the storm to this extent. 

gfs-deterministic-central-snow_24hr_kuchera-0360400.png

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, things are looking pretty boring for KC for the foreseeable future (for the moment anyway).  Hopefully that will change.  On a positive note, I got 1.6 inches of rain on Saturday and Sunday at my house.  The official measurement at the airport (about 30 miles away as the crow flies ) was only .28 inches.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...