December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Hoosier]

The Dec 6 storm has returned on the GFS.  Rejoice

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

It's a butt sniffer model, but occasionally will put it's nose in the air and smell something on its own. Leading the way??

Most other models has this suppressed south of my area clipping yours.  My call yesterday might be correct lol.  

[Tom]

12z EPS keeps trending towards and more snowier regime post 8th/9th for a lot of the SUB.

[westMJim]

Here is the updated CPC long range outlook for December 2022.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

Looks on the cold but maybe dry side.

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS control run shows a really nice snowstorm for the central and northern Plains next weekend, including our Nebraska folks!

[james1976]

MPX saying travel could be difficult Friday night with snowshowers and wind.

[Hoosier]

23 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Here is the updated CPC long range outlook for December 2022.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

Looks on the cold but maybe dry side.

That kind of monthly look can work, IF the precip is timed well for when it's cold enough.  Can find plenty of months that were colder/drier than average that were ok, if not good in the snow department.

[james1976]

24 minutes ago, james1976 said:

MPX saying travel could be difficult Friday night with snowshowers and wind.

New MPX afd is calling for 1-2 with isolated 3" along with 40mph wind gusts.

[tStacsh]

@jaster220 will like this

- COLD TO RETURN FOR A LONGER TIME NEXT WEEK     SO REMEMBERING MY THEME OF THE PAST FEW AFDS, AND CONSIDERING THE   DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH OVER GREENLAND, I AM THINKING WE WILL SEE   THE MODELS ALL TREND COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL   CYCLES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER DEEP SURFACE LOW   TRACKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME   FRAME BUT CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THAT.   WHAT I AM MORE SURE OF THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH   COLDER THEN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. I FATHER BELIEVE WE WILL   HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND OVER MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF   NEXT WEEK AS MORE THAN 90 PCT OF THE TIME AT GRR (I HAVE THE DATA   FOR THIS) IF THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE AT GRR IS BELOW FREEZING   THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND THAT DAY. SO, IF WE GET A PROLONG   PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES, IT WILL SNOW, NO MATTER   WHAT THE MODELS SAY NOW.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

@jaster220 will like this

- COLD TO RETURN FOR A LONGER TIME NEXT WEEK     SO REMEMBERING MY THEME OF THE PAST FEW AFDS, AND CONSIDERING THE   DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH OVER GREENLAND, I AM THINKING WE WILL SEE   THE MODELS ALL TREND COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL   CYCLES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER DEEP SURFACE LOW   TRACKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME   FRAME BUT CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THAT.   WHAT I AM MORE SURE OF THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH   COLDER THEN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. I FATHER BELIEVE WE WILL   HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND OVER MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF   NEXT WEEK AS MORE THAN 90 PCT OF THE TIME AT GRR (I HAVE THE DATA   FOR THIS) IF THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE AT GRR IS BELOW FREEZING   THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND THAT DAY. SO, IF WE GET A PROLONG   PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES, IT WILL SNOW, NO MATTER   WHAT THE MODELS SAY NOW.

Who said it?

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, westMJim said:

Here is the updated CPC long range outlook for December 2022.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

Looks on the cold but maybe dry side.

For their seasonal outlook for DJF 2013-14 they failed miserably in every category. Not saying they'll be wrong, its just that there are times when they can be way off the mark. 

[jaster220]

54 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Who said it?

WDM - William (Bill) a younger and most pro-winter MET on staff at GRR. Apologize to him and you for not remembering his last name attm.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

@jaster220 will like this

- COLD TO RETURN FOR A LONGER TIME NEXT WEEK     SO REMEMBERING MY THEME OF THE PAST FEW AFDS, AND CONSIDERING THE   DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH OVER GREENLAND, I AM THINKING WE WILL SEE   THE MODELS ALL TREND COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL   CYCLES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER DEEP SURFACE LOW   TRACKING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME   FRAME BUT CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THAT.   WHAT I AM MORE SURE OF THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH   COLDER THEN THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. I FATHER BELIEVE WE WILL   HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND OVER MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY THE END OF   NEXT WEEK AS MORE THAN 90 PCT OF THE TIME AT GRR (I HAVE THE DATA   FOR THIS) IF THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE AT GRR IS BELOW FREEZING   THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND THAT DAY. SO, IF WE GET A PROLONG   PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES, IT WILL SNOW, NO MATTER   WHAT THE MODELS SAY NOW.

Thanks. I like the positive vibes. Just have to hope that it can be "just cold enough" to include my area in any snow event. Keep in mind I live in the "almost" region of The Mitt when it comes to SN. Hey, at least I was driving home this evening in -SHSN. Got a few flakes outta this event which is better than I thought would happen. 

[Hawkeye]

It already feels like we're about to punt to the second half of December, once again.  There's no torch this year, but chilly and dry is pretty zzzz.

[gabel23]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It already feels like we're about to punt to the second half of December, once again.  There's no torch this year, but chilly and dry is pretty zzzz.

Also wasting a perfect negative AO and NAO combo. 

[CentralNebWeather]

40 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Also wasting a perfect negative AO and NAO combo. 

Just have to have so many things come together to get a storm around here.  

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Just have to have so many things come together to get a storm around here.  

Really, it comes and goes. I remember clearly your area getting raked with a 12-18" bliz and being so jealous of all your nice photos of drifting. 5 or 6 yrs back?? The Plains are notoriously feast or famine in most wx categories. Pretty sure OMA got that sweet 14" storm just a few years back tho not sure it reached west enough to include yby. I've had only (1) dbl digit snowstorm in the past six winters, and barely reached at 10". 

[gabel23]

KC peeps, wasn’t Gary supposed to release his winter forecast tonight? Did he do it at 6 or not doing it until 10?

[Clinton]

Just now, gabel23 said:

KC peeps, wasn’t Gary supposed to release his winter forecast tonight? Did he do it at 6 or not doing it until 10?

He did a special where Gary and his weather team made a season total snowfall prediction.  Gary predicted 17 inches of snow for the season which is a tad below average for KC.  He did say we will have snow before Christmas. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Also wasting a perfect negative AO and NAO combo. 

Just wait a few weeks and ask again!

 

Right now, the PNA is way too negative for us to get the snowfall action. 

[gabel23]

42 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Just wait a few weeks and ask again!

 

Right now, the PNA is way too negative for us to get the snowfall action. 

Correct me if I'm wrong; a neutral to positive PNA brings in the ridge to the west and brings us a NW flow? Coupled that with the blocking of the NAO and negative AO slows storms down with the arctic air? I understand the NAO and AO but get confused with the PNA. 

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Really, it comes and goes. I remember clearly your area getting raked with a 12-18" bliz and being so jealous of all your nice photos of drifting. 5 or 6 yrs back?? The Plains are notoriously feast or famine in most wx categories. Pretty sure OMA got that sweet 14" storm just a few years back tho not sure it reached west enough to include yby. I've had only (1) dbl digit snowstorm in the past six winters, and barely reached at 10". 

That's crazy b/c I figured you would average a 12"+ snowstorm at least twice a year. We have actually been very fortunate the past 10 years. I have seen 3 in that time span with one storm having thunder snow. We only average 30" for an entire season and most of the time they are nickel and dime type storms. The winter of 2009-10, which I believe was my first year on this website, was bar none the best I have ever experienced. The teleconnections was pretty much spot on with what's going on now; the only difference is that was an El Nino winter. My area received our seasonal total in the month of December alone! We had a 20"+ snow depth after the x-mas blizzard until Feb. that year. 

[Bryan1117]

41 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

That's crazy b/c I figured you would average a 12"+ snowstorm at least twice a year. We have actually been very fortunate the past 10 years. I have seen 3 in that time span with one storm having thunder snow. We only average 30" for an entire season and most of the time they are nickel and dime type storms. The winter of 2009-10, which I believe was my first year on this website, was bar none the best I have ever experienced. The teleconnections was pretty much spot on with what's going on now; the only difference is that was an El Nino winter. My area received our seasonal total in the month of December alone! We had a 20"+ snow depth after the x-mas blizzard until Feb. that year. 

 

December of 2009 was truly a "December to Remember" for almost everyone in the state of Nebraska. Omaha "officially" picked up 25" of snow that month, even though I am guessing areas out west were closer to 30". This mostly fell through two separate storm systems/ blizzards, one during the first part of the month that dropped 10" to 14" of snow across the metro, then the very memorable second Christmas storm that dropped another 12" to 15" of snow over 3 days (starting on Christmas Eve). If I remember right, we had three Blizzard Warnings issued within a month's time - counting a snowy/ windy storm in early January. 

It seems like it's been feast or famine the last 10-15 years around here... either we get smoked with lots of snow or we have a winter full of cold, dry, and windy days - with huge swings in temperatures (much like this year so far), with a few warm and wet winters mixed in. Guess that's part of living in the Great Plains.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

LOLZ

[Mr Marine Layer]

Omaha drought

[Clinton]

Happy first day of meteorological winter!  Looks like its going to be a mild and windy end to the week for mby.

  

[GDR]

Bet the house that December will not be like 2000…

[westMJim]

Welcome to meteorological winter! Yesterday’s official high of 54 occurred just after midnight and the temperature dropped all day. The low of 26 occurred just before midnight. There was 0.06” of precipitation of that a trace was snow fall. There was no sunshine yesterday.  The temperature has held steady overnight and the current temperature here is 27. For today the average H/L is now at 41/28 the record high of 65 was in 1970 and the record low of +6 was in 1976. The record snow fall amount is 5.0” in 2010. This past November had a mean of 40.9 that was a departure of +0.9. the high for the month was 75 and the low was 18 there was 28.0” of snow fall and that is the 2nd most for any November.

A brief recap of meteorological autumn. At Grand Rapids the 3-month mean was 51.7. The 30 year mean is 51.6 so at Grand Rapids the temperature was very near average. Note that most other locations in lower Michigan had departures that were warmer than Grand Rapids. The highest reading in fall of 2022 was 85 on September 3rd and the lowest reading was 18 on November 19,20 and 22. There was a total of 7.37” of rain and melted snow fall that was well below the average of 10.55” There was 28.0: of snow fall and that was well above the average of 7.4”

[Tom]

43 minutes ago, GDR said:

Bet the house that December will not be like 2000…

#STJ will be En Fuego post 12/10...not everyone will be benefit, but I can tell you, there will be a lot of happy winter wx fans on here.

I'm tracking a couple storms through the 2nd week of DEC alone coming out of the SW/TX PanHandle region....Storm target dates 12/10-12/12 and 12/15-12/17.  I expect a bit of lull following those storms but then things ramp up big time with a potential Christmas Eve (give or take a day) blockbuster.  I got my eyes on our southern friends with this storm potential that should cut somewhere up the OHV/App's given the relaxation of the PNA.  Sustained cold with plenty of high lat blocking should keep things winter-like for pretty much all of us on here.  I'm also seeing Hudson Bay HP's seeding cold over the GL's region during the Festive Christmas Holiday Week to close out DEC.  Could it be one that many will Remember???  Happy Meteorological Winter everyone!  

 

[Niko]

December Outlook from TWC:

[Niko]

Big snows out west in the mountains are expected.. Feet of snow. Travel is not recommended. Truckee, CA for i.e., is expecting to get inundated. This place is on my list. Will definitely have to visit soon.

[tStacsh]

Yawner of an open to December.   Maybe the second week, but no big storms likely.  So colder, slightly BN, but no real snow.   Normalcy, unless you go back the last few years, and this will look like a real start to winter.  Just not a great one.  Good luck to everyone else.  

[gabel23]

13 hours ago, Clinton said:

He did a special where Gary and his weather team made a season total snowfall prediction.  Gary predicted 17 inches of snow for the season which is a tad below average for KC.  He did say we will have snow before Christmas. 

It's so crazy, he used to do a big winter special and post it on the blog. I'm wondering if he will do that maybe later in December? 

[GDR]

Looks like a little snow is showing up around the 9th

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

It's so crazy, he used to do a big winter special and post it on the blog. I'm wondering if he will do that maybe later in December? 

He made his last blog post a couple days ago but hopefully someone else on the team will post the video/forecast later today 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS total accumulation map.  Hard to make this stuff up.  Going on over a year of this disgusting drought.

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

LOLZ

19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GFS total accumulation map.  Hard to make this stuff up.  Going on over a year of this disgusting drought.

That 1st map (0z) is why NOBODY is excited in our Sub for December.

Enter map #2 (12z)..suddenly, a mere 12 hrs later I've gone from 0.1 qpf to ~2" qpf!

I'd lend my dog to you for a week to see that be all snow!

[westMJim]

4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Yawner of an open to December.   Maybe the second week, but no big storms likely.  So colder, slightly BN, but no real snow.   Normalcy, unless you go back the last few years, and this will look like a real start to winter.  Just not a great one.  Good luck to everyone else.  

That is a very good summery of the start of winter in our parts

[tStacsh]

Mostly Sunny 38 degree day here.  Outside of parking lot piles, you wouldn't know we had 2 FEET of snow 2 weeks ago.  The grass is green.  May even get the final leaves picked up tomorrow if I leave work before sundown.  

[bud2380]

Models have been unkind the last couple of days.  The storm for early next week is basically gone and nothing behind it.  We've got some time yet, but it would be nice to get a white Christmas for a change around here.  I believe only one of the last 7 years has it officially been a White Christmas in Cedar Rapids.  And I believe the snow depth that one year was 2".  I could be off, but not by much.  It's been brown a lot lately at Christmas time. 

[Hoosier]

Wind and more wind this week.

[Clinton]

11 hours ago, Tom said:

#STJ will be En Fuego post 12/10...not everyone will be benefit, but I can tell you, there will be a lot of happy winter wx fans on here.

I'm tracking a couple storms through the 2nd week of DEC alone coming out of the SW/TX PanHandle region....Storm target dates 12/10-12/12 and 12/15-12/17.  I expect a bit of lull following those storms but then things ramp up big time with a potential Christmas Eve (give or take a day) blockbuster.  I got my eyes on our southern friends with this storm potential that should cut somewhere up the OHV/App's given the relaxation of the PNA.  Sustained cold with plenty of high lat blocking should keep things winter-like for pretty much all of us on here.  I'm also seeing Hudson Bay HP's seeding cold over the GL's region during the Festive Christmas Holiday Week to close out DEC.  Could it be one that many will Remember???  Happy Meteorological Winter everyone!  

 

The GEFS is picking up on the storms you mentioned, including the Texas Panhandle hook that I have been looking forward to.  Strong blocking always messes with the operational models and they are back and forth on just about every run.  I think there is a lot to get excited about as we move into week 2!

System around the 8th-10th

Panhandle hook and it may eject in 2 pieces.  Dec 12th-16th.

The full run:

[Clinton]

22 hours ago, gabel23 said:

KC peeps, wasn’t Gary supposed to release his winter forecast tonight? Did he do it at 6 or not doing it until 10?

The weather special was very disappointing imo.  The were no insights into the pattern or anything.  He's putting everything on his weather2020 sight that cost $50 a month.

[hawkstwelve]

It got up to 39 here today but we had surprisingly little melting besides the roads. Probably helped that the DP stayed in the 20s.

NWS FSD talked about thawing in the 40s tomorrow morning followed by a possible flash freeze as temperatures quickly drop into the 20s with the front, which we have a wind advisory for the accompanying gusts up to 50 mph. Throw in some light snow possibly adding up to a half inch or so and you got yourself an interesting weather day!

[OmahaSnowFan]

I changed my weather station location a bit on my fence and man has it made a difference on wind measurements. Part of it might be bc of no leaves on any of the trees, but I’ve recorded my highest gusts ever on my station the last several weeks.

I had a 51.0 mph gust recorded Tuesday, and today’s high gust was 34.2 mph.

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I changed my weather station location a bit on my fence and man has it made a difference on wind measurements. Part of it might be bc of no leaves on any of the trees, but I’ve recorded my highest gusts ever on my station the last several weeks.

I had a 51.0 mph gust recorded Tuesday, and today’s high gust was 34.2 mph.

There have been at least 10 trees cut down on my block in recent years, and the difference in wind speed has been very noticeable.  Snow blows around a lot more now too.

[jaster220]

A Met from ORD is seeing some positive signs going forward just based on traditional pattern recognition citing the 2010 analog for this month. Kinda jives with what the LRC crew in here has been saying. I'm personally a fan of the strong storms and their winds. May it be a trend all winter! As the snow shield has progressed S through Canada now into the N Tier why should it suddenly halt when it is becoming "in season" for us further down in LAT. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Fun little project to show how D**n windy it’s been here for WEEKS!
Max daily wind gusts off my weather station IMBY since November 1st.

11/1: 17.7

11/2: 31.1

11/3: 24.6

11/4: 24.2

11/5: 26.4

11/6: 25.3

11/7: 22.8

11/8: 37.8

11/9: 27.1

11/10: 35.8

11/11: 36.9

11/12: 28.0

11/13: 31.8

11/14: 18.6

11/15: 23.9

11/16: 28.4

11/17: 45.2

11/18: 27.3

11/19: 38.7

11/20: 28.6

11/21: 18.6

11/22: 16.1

11/23: 21.9

11/24: 35.1

11/25: 35.1

11/26: 45.4

11/27: 35.1

11/28: 24.2

11/29: 51.0

11/30: 27.5

12/1: 34.2 

Last 31 days, AVG DAILY GUST: 28.7 mph!!

 

[hawkstwelve]

I think this might be the highest GEFS snowfall average I've had so far this season.

You can see in the 24 hour snow chart that some members are seeing a decent storm around the 12th which would line up fairly closely with the 0.19 we received on 10/26 and 10/27, which would be around the 45 day mark. I know you guys were thinking 49 day cycle so wouldn't surprise me if models were jumping the gun a bit. Certainly wouldn't be the first time they delayed a storm a few days.

Regardless, going to have to keep an eye on that one. The 0.19 was the 2nd highest total we received all cycle so there's definitely some potential there.

[Clinton]

28 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I think this might be the highest GEFS snowfall average I've had so far this season.

You can see in the 24 hour snow chart that some members are seeing a decent storm around the 12th which would line up fairly closely with the 0.19 we received on 10/26 and 10/27, which would be around the 45 day mark. I know you guys were thinking 49 day cycle so wouldn't surprise me if models were jumping the gun a bit. Certainly wouldn't be the first time they delayed a storm a few days.

Regardless, going to have to keep an eye on that one. The 0.19 was the 2nd highest total we received all cycle so there's definitely some potential there.

This is the storm from Oct 24th, this part of the pattern is due to return around Dec 11th-12th.  It was a big rain maker here as the surface low took a perfect track across NW Arkansas which is a perfect track for a snow storm in KC.