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December 2022 Observations and Discussion


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11 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

LOLZ

EFD7F962-7B7D-4652-85E3-DAA2448F7FB1.jpeg

19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GFS total accumulation map.  Hard to make this stuff up.  Going on over a year of this disgusting drought.

GFS total precipitation.png

That 1st map (0z) is why NOBODY is excited in our Sub for December.

Enter map #2 (12z)..suddenly, a mere 12 hrs later I've gone from 0.1 qpf to ~2" qpf!

I'd lend my dog to you for a week to see that be all snow!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Yawner of an open to December.   Maybe the second week, but no big storms likely.  So colder, slightly BN, but no real snow.   Normalcy, unless you go back the last few years, and this will look like a real start to winter.  Just not a great one.  Good luck to everyone else.  

That is a very good summery of the start of winter in our parts

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Models have been unkind the last couple of days.  The storm for early next week is basically gone and nothing behind it.  We've got some time yet, but it would be nice to get a white Christmas for a change around here.  I believe only one of the last 7 years has it officially been a White Christmas in Cedar Rapids.  And I believe the snow depth that one year was 2".  I could be off, but not by much.  It's been brown a lot lately at Christmas time. 

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

#STJ will be En Fuego post 12/10...not everyone will be benefit, but I can tell you, there will be a lot of happy winter wx fans on here.

I'm tracking a couple storms through the 2nd week of DEC alone coming out of the SW/TX PanHandle region....Storm target dates 12/10-12/12 and 12/15-12/17.  I expect a bit of lull following those storms but then things ramp up big time with a potential Christmas Eve (give or take a day) blockbuster.  I got my eyes on our southern friends with this storm potential that should cut somewhere up the OHV/App's given the relaxation of the PNA.  Sustained cold with plenty of high lat blocking should keep things winter-like for pretty much all of us on here.  I'm also seeing Hudson Bay HP's seeding cold over the GL's region during the Festive Christmas Holiday Week to close out DEC.  Could it be one that many will Remember???  Happy Meteorological Winter everyone!  

 

The GEFS is picking up on the storms you mentioned, including the Texas Panhandle hook that I have been looking forward to.  Strong blocking always messes with the operational models and they are back and forth on just about every run.  I think there is a lot to get excited about as we move into week 2!

System around the 8th-10th

1670673600-HkoAusPpRRc.png

Panhandle hook and it may eject in 2 pieces.  Dec 12th-16th.

1671256800-MvW7u0yexSo.png

The full run:

1671278400-MQ4VnVy2UXQ.png

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22 hours ago, gabel23 said:

KC peeps, wasn’t Gary supposed to release his winter forecast tonight? Did he do it at 6 or not doing it until 10?

The weather special was very disappointing imo.  The were no insights into the pattern or anything.  He's putting everything on his weather2020 sight that cost $50 a month.

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I changed my weather station location a bit on my fence and man has it made a difference on wind measurements. Part of it might be bc of no leaves on any of the trees, but I’ve recorded my highest gusts ever on my station the last several weeks.

I had a 51.0 mph gust recorded Tuesday, and today’s high gust was 34.2 mph.

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13 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I changed my weather station location a bit on my fence and man has it made a difference on wind measurements. Part of it might be bc of no leaves on any of the trees, but I’ve recorded my highest gusts ever on my station the last several weeks.

I had a 51.0 mph gust recorded Tuesday, and today’s high gust was 34.2 mph.

There have been at least 10 trees cut down on my block in recent years, and the difference in wind speed has been very noticeable.  Snow blows around a lot more now too.

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A Met from ORD is seeing some positive signs going forward just based on traditional pattern recognition citing the 2010 analog for this month. Kinda jives with what the LRC crew in here has been saying. I'm personally a fan of the strong storms and their winds. May it be a trend all winter! As the snow shield has progressed S through Canada now into the N Tier why should it suddenly halt when it is becoming "in season" for us further down in LAT. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Fun little project to show how D**n windy it’s been here for WEEKS!
Max daily wind gusts off my weather station IMBY since November 1st.

11/1: 17.7

11/2: 31.1

11/3: 24.6

11/4: 24.2

11/5: 26.4

11/6: 25.3

11/7: 22.8

11/8: 37.8

11/9: 27.1

11/10: 35.8

11/11: 36.9

11/12: 28.0

11/13: 31.8

11/14: 18.6

11/15: 23.9

11/16: 28.4

11/17: 45.2

11/18: 27.3

11/19: 38.7

11/20: 28.6

11/21: 18.6

11/22: 16.1

11/23: 21.9

11/24: 35.1

11/25: 35.1

11/26: 45.4

11/27: 35.1

11/28: 24.2

11/29: 51.0

11/30: 27.5

12/1: 34.2 

Last 31 days, AVG DAILY GUST: 28.7 mph!!

 

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28 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I think this might be the highest GEFS snowfall average I've had so far this season.

You can see in the 24 hour snow chart that some members are seeing a decent storm around the 12th which would line up fairly closely with the 0.19 we received on 10/26 and 10/27, which would be around the 45 day mark. I know you guys were thinking 49 day cycle so wouldn't surprise me if models were jumping the gun a bit. Certainly wouldn't be the first time they delayed a storm a few days.

Regardless, going to have to keep an eye on that one. The 0.19 was the 2nd highest total we received all cycle so there's definitely some potential there.

gfs-ensemble-all-KFSD-indiv_snow-9917600.png

gfs-ensemble-all-KFSD-indiv_snow_24-9917600.png

This is the storm from Oct 24th, this part of the pattern is due to return around Dec 11th-12th.  It was a big rain maker here as the surface low took a perfect track across NW Arkansas which is a perfect track for a snow storm in KC.

7 AM Surface Map

7:40 AM Surface Map

Rainfall Amounts

7:30 AM Radar

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4 hours ago, Clinton said:

The weather special was very disappointing imo.  The were no insights into the pattern or anything.  He's putting everything on his weather2020 sight that cost $50 a month.

I thought the same exact thing! It’s finally posted on their website; I was shocked to see that he was going with only 17” of snow in KC. I see you guys right on the edge all year and for the most part being in the 🎯. I think the main track or hot spot is from central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas,  NW Arkansas, central iowa up to Detroit. Very similar to the winter in the mid 2010’s. I think it was the winter of 14 or 15 that had the southwesterly flow with KC on the northwestern edge of all storm tracks. Nebraska and points west of that track was in a drought and always just missed the brunt of the storms. I think that was around the great ground hogs days storm? Central Missouri received like 20” of snow from that one storm. 

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Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 36/26 there was a trace of snow fall, it became sunny in the afternoon and there was a total of 57% of sunshine. The was no snow on the ground. The overnight low here in MBY fell to 32 before rising to the current reading of 38. For today the average H/L is 40/28 the record high of 67 was recorded in 1982 and the record low of -11 was recorded in 1976. The record snow fall amount is 4.8” is 1985.

For the next week or so look for an extended period of colder than normal temperatures with near normal precipitation is expected. The normal highs are in the lower to mid-30s north to upper 30s south. The normal lows in the lower 20s north to mid-20s south. The normal precipitation is around a .4” and normal snowfall is around an 3” at Grand Rapids and Muskegon, 2” at Lansing.

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Well look what we have here a nice little Panhandle hook.

gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1669960800-1670770800-1671148800-40.gif

 

Look at the 850mb Temperature trends in the past several runs on the GFS. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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6 hours ago, gabel23 said:

I thought the same exact thing! It’s finally posted on their website; I was shocked to see that he was going with only 17” of snow in KC. I see you guys right on the edge all year and for the most part being in the 🎯. I think the main track or hot spot is from central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas,  NW Arkansas, central iowa up to Detroit. Very similar to the winter in the mid 2010’s. I think it was the winter of 14 or 15 that had the southwesterly flow with KC on the northwestern edge of all storm tracks. Nebraska and points west of that track was in a drought and always just missed the brunt of the storms. I think that was around the great ground hogs days storm? Central Missouri received like 20” of snow from that one storm. 

I was surprised also but I have gotten quite a bit more rain than KC has the last 45 days.  I think my totals may end up higher than KC's.  Last year I received 27in and KC got 19.

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40 minutes ago, westMJim said:

We shall see. That would be snow for you and rain for me.

Looks like you could see some wrap around snow, this run was very similar to Oct 24th time period and very close to what I am expecting.  A long ways to go and a lot of blocking setting up.  Lets see how it trends.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Well look what we have here a nice little Panhandle hook.

gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1669960800-1670770800-1671148800-40.gif

 

The gif doesn't load unless you reply to the post...its prob the way you are saving the file and posting it.  I think its something to do the way the info is saved off of Wx Bell.

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Our roller coaster ride of temps swings will continue through Wednesday before a prolonged period of below normal cold arrives later this upcoming week. Today will be our 2nd below normal day to start the month of December. Tomorrow may be the warmest day for the rest of the year as temps will climb to the mid-50's with showers for many across the county. Chilly again for Sunday and Monday.
The record high for today is 65 degrees from 1962. Our record low is 8 degrees from 1976. The daily rain record is 1.13" from 1986. The daily snow record is the 4.5" that fell way back in 1903.
image.png.15b595f0bf1951cced4986e68576217d.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Isn't it amazing what a little bit of Blocking will do??  Suddenly, the systems that were non-existent on previous runs are now showing up.  Giddy up!

A sneaky system late next week could be laying down some SN from @CentralNebWeatherand across the I-80 corridor....

1.png

 

Followed by, the 10th-12th system...

sn10_024h-mean-imp.conus.png

sn10_024h-mean-imp.conus.png

 

Followed by the 15th-17th...can we go BIG???

2.png

 

0z EPS....#ShareTheWealth...CO LOW...Let's Go!

1.gif

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6 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Well I was thrilled about my above normal  November  rainfall. But otherwise  quite a boring  November.  Windshifts  dead pattern. But this  gfs run is giving me hope or probably  just eye candy.  Past several November  and Dec have been horrible  in the Snow Ice business. 

sc_2853730704555136.png

Your gonna love this year…$$$$$

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Another potent C-front coming tomorrow. Wind gusts could be as high as 50mph. Any Christmas decor outside could be blown away, if not properly secured.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like you could see some wrap around snow, this run was very similar to Oct 24th time period and very close to what I am expecting.  A long ways to go and a lot of blocking setting up.  Lets see how it trends.

That looks real nice for ya Clinton. I hope you score bud!

Wooosh!!! and Clinton gets buried near a 10inch snowfall!!!! 😉

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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8 minutes ago, Niko said:

Another potent C-front coming tomorrow. Wind gusts could be as high as 50mph. Any Christmas decor outside could be blown away, if not properly secured.

The wind is roaring here today.  Quite the wind storm, wind advisories for many,

US.png

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4 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Definitely nice to see an active pattern starting to materialize.  There will be lots of changes over the next several days.  Being in KC, I try not to get my hopes up.  Things really have to line up just right for us to get snow.  But at least an active pattern is a good place to start.  

One thing that always seems to help us is when the AO and NAO go negative and we will actually have that on our side as we move into the active part of the pattern.  

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13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The 00z GFS for December 9 would be a solution that I would find to be acceptable.

Geez..another Jan '21 storm track - HARD pass on that outcome, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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