December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Hoosier]

The 00z GFS for December 9 would be a solution that I would find to be acceptable.

[gabel23]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

The weather special was very disappointing imo.  The were no insights into the pattern or anything.  He's putting everything on his weather2020 sight that cost $50 a month.

I thought the same exact thing! It’s finally posted on their website; I was shocked to see that he was going with only 17” of snow in KC. I see you guys right on the edge all year and for the most part being in the . I think the main track or hot spot is from central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas,  NW Arkansas, central iowa up to Detroit. Very similar to the winter in the mid 2010’s. I think it was the winter of 14 or 15 that had the southwesterly flow with KC on the northwestern edge of all storm tracks. Nebraska and points west of that track was in a drought and always just missed the brunt of the storms. I think that was around the great ground hogs days storm? Central Missouri received like 20” of snow from that one storm. 

[Clinton]

Well look what we have here a nice little Panhandle hook.

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 36/26 there was a trace of snow fall, it became sunny in the afternoon and there was a total of 57% of sunshine. The was no snow on the ground. The overnight low here in MBY fell to 32 before rising to the current reading of 38. For today the average H/L is 40/28 the record high of 67 was recorded in 1982 and the record low of -11 was recorded in 1976. The record snow fall amount is 4.8” is 1985.

For the next week or so look for an extended period of colder than normal temperatures with near normal precipitation is expected. The normal highs are in the lower to mid-30s north to upper 30s south. The normal lows in the lower 20s north to mid-20s south. The normal precipitation is around a .4” and normal snowfall is around an 3” at Grand Rapids and Muskegon, 2” at Lansing.

[westMJim]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Well looky what we have here.

We shall see. That would be snow for you and rain for me.

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Well look what we have here a nice little Panhandle hook.

 

Look at the 850mb Temperature trends in the past several runs on the GFS. 

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, gabel23 said:

I thought the same exact thing! It’s finally posted on their website; I was shocked to see that he was going with only 17” of snow in KC. I see you guys right on the edge all year and for the most part being in the . I think the main track or hot spot is from central Oklahoma, eastern Kansas,  NW Arkansas, central iowa up to Detroit. Very similar to the winter in the mid 2010’s. I think it was the winter of 14 or 15 that had the southwesterly flow with KC on the northwestern edge of all storm tracks. Nebraska and points west of that track was in a drought and always just missed the brunt of the storms. I think that was around the great ground hogs days storm? Central Missouri received like 20” of snow from that one storm. 

I was surprised also but I have gotten quite a bit more rain than KC has the last 45 days.  I think my totals may end up higher than KC's.  Last year I received 27in and KC got 19.

[Clinton]

The GFS, CMC and ICON are also showing a storm around the 9th that may target Iowa and the lower lakes region.

ICON is a bit further north.

[Clinton]

40 minutes ago, westMJim said:

We shall see. That would be snow for you and rain for me.

Looks like you could see some wrap around snow, this run was very similar to Oct 24th time period and very close to what I am expecting.  A long ways to go and a lot of blocking setting up.  Lets see how it trends.

[Clinton]

The percentage of precip to normal for the past 60 days.

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

[CentralNebWeather]

Great, back to blowing dust.  

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Well look what we have here a nice little Panhandle hook.

 

The gif doesn't load unless you reply to the post...its prob the way you are saving the file and posting it.  I think its something to do the way the info is saved off of Wx Bell.

[chescowxman]

Our roller coaster ride of temps swings will continue through Wednesday before a prolonged period of below normal cold arrives later this upcoming week. Today will be our 2nd below normal day to start the month of December. Tomorrow may be the warmest day for the rest of the year as temps will climb to the mid-50's with showers for many across the county. Chilly again for Sunday and Monday.

The record high for today is 65 degrees from 1962. Our record low is 8 degrees from 1976. The daily rain record is 1.13" from 1986. The daily snow record is the 4.5" that fell way back in 1903.

[Tom]

Isn't it amazing what a little bit of Blocking will do??  Suddenly, the systems that were non-existent on previous runs are now showing up.  Giddy up!

A sneaky system late next week could be laying down some SN from @CentralNebWeatherand across the I-80 corridor....

 

Followed by, the 10th-12th system...

 

Followed by the 15th-17th...can we go BIG???

 

0z EPS....#ShareTheWealth...CO LOW...Let's Go!

[OttumwaSnomow]

Well I was thrilled about my above normal  November  rainfall. But otherwise  quite a boring  November.  Windshifts  dead pattern. But this  gfs run is giving me hope or probably  just eye candy.  Past several November  and Dec have been horrible  in the Snow Ice business. 

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Well I was thrilled about my above normal  November  rainfall. But otherwise  quite a boring  November.  Windshifts  dead pattern. But this  gfs run is giving me hope or probably  just eye candy.  Past several November  and Dec have been horrible  in the Snow Ice business. 

Your gonna love this year…$$$$$

[Clinton]

If anyone wants to look ahead to the Dec 12th -19th period I would encourage you to go back to a storm thread we had posted.  "10/23 - 10/30 series of storm/cutters"  it will provide some insight into the upcoming pattern change.

[Niko]

Another potent C-front coming tomorrow. Wind gusts could be as high as 50mph. Any Christmas decor outside could be blown away, if not properly secured.

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like you could see some wrap around snow, this run was very similar to Oct 24th time period and very close to what I am expecting.  A long ways to go and a lot of blocking setting up.  Lets see how it trends.

That looks real nice for ya Clinton. I hope you score bud!

Wooosh!!! and Clinton gets buried near a 10inch snowfall!!!!

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

Another potent C-front coming tomorrow. Wind gusts could be as high as 50mph. Any Christmas decor outside could be blown away, if not properly secured.

The wind is roaring here today.  Quite the wind storm, wind advisories for many,

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Definitely nice to see an active pattern starting to materialize.  There will be lots of changes over the next several days.  Being in KC, I try not to get my hopes up.  Things really have to line up just right for us to get snow.  But at least an active pattern is a good place to start.  

One thing that always seems to help us is when the AO and NAO go negative and we will actually have that on our side as we move into the active part of the pattern.  

[hawkstwelve]

EPS is showing blocking, on top of blocking, on top of blocking. -EPO/-NAO/-AO.

Ideally for MBY I'd like to see slightly higher heights over the far SE US. We were fighting for scraps with this pattern back at the end of October as all the systems moved by to our south. It'd be nice to have a little help in steering them slightly further north during the 12/12-12/16 period.

[Clinton]

12z GFS further north with the storm on the 8th and 9th.  It's more inline with it ensembles and the ICON.

[GDR]

Also some decent freezing rain and rain with the system.

[GDR]

11th/12th system more north also

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, GDR said:

11th/12th system more north also

Almost 1000 miles north lol

[hawkstwelve]

Looks like ridging in the SW causes the trough to not dig nearly as much. Maybe I should be rooting for SW ridging?

Also, the low pressure near the NAO region looks pretty funky sandwiched between the two ridges like that.

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty sharp cold front draped across SD right now. Stiff NNW winds with temps in the teens/20s behind the front and SSE winds with temps in the 30s/40s ahead of it.

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The 00z GFS for December 9 would be a solution that I would find to be acceptable.

Geez..another Jan '21 storm track - HARD pass on that outcome, lol

[jaster220]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Canadian looks good for us on the 12th but shows some ice on the 8th and 9th yikes.

Nice to see a/the more active period approaching us. Kinda perfect timing in my book - a 3rd of the way into Dec and on-wards.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Geez..another Jan '21 storm track - HARD pass on that outcome, lol

I had 3 double digit snowstorms since the end of Jan 2021 and another that was just under.  I could stand to share a little in that regard.  

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEFS looks like an improvement over 06z for the Central/Northern Plains in the snowfall department.

 

[Tom]

The Euro Weeklies basically corrected to showcase the high lat blocking and an active storm track....cold and snow, let's do this...

[CentralNebWeather]

We had this last spring, and could potentially see this in my area later this afternoon as these winds move east.  We are begging for moisture that always seem to fizzle out.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Goodland KS just put out that a wall of dust will be coming right behind the front.  Mentions parts of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska.  What is this, the 1930's?  

[hawkstwelve]

Front has moved through here. Temperature has dropped almost 10 degrees in the past hour. 

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Goodland KS just put out that a wall of dust will be coming right behind the front.  Mentions parts of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska.  What is this, the 1930's?  

Showing up on radar too. Man I would love to see pictures of what this thing looks like!

 

DUST STORM WARNING
NWS GOODLAND KS
151 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2022

KSC153-193-NEC087-022115-
/O.NEW.KGLD.DS.W.0007.221202T1951Z-221202T2115Z/
151 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
Rawlins County KS-Thomas County KS-Hitchcock County NE-

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a

* Dust Storm Warning for...
Thomas County in northwestern Kansas...
Rawlins County in northwestern Kansas...
Hitchcock County in southwestern Nebraska...

* Until 315 PM CST.

* At 150 PM CST, a wall of dust was along a line extending from 7
miles northwest of Culbertson to 10 miles north of McDonald to 12
miles south of St. Francis, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Less than a quarter mile visibility with damaging wind in
excess of 60 mph.

SOURCE...Doppler radar, public reports and satellite imagery.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.


This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 36 and 74.

Locations impacted include...
Colby, Oakley, Atwood, Trenton, Brewster, Levant and Culbertson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

There is no safe place on a highway when a dust storm hits.
Visibility can be lost immediately, making it difficult or impossible
to slow down and avoid stopped vehicles. Delay travel, or safely exit
the highway before the dust storm arrives.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Live view of the Goodland dust storm.  If you go soon, you can see a time lapse of the storm arriving. 

https://www.frontieraginc.com/fccp-sky-cams-20999

 

 

I wonder if that dust will make it here?

[gabel23]

Wow nice work, that's impressive! It's just like the dirty 30's. 

[Iceresistance]

7 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Great, back to blowing dust.  

 

There is a dust storm warning for Kansas and Nebraska right now

[jaster220]

I'd like a side order of this pls..

Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Charlevoix
254 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Strong winds and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of up to 2 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as
  45 mph leading to white-out conditions.

[gabel23]

This was taken by the NWS in Good land. A legit Haboob is taking place just incredible. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[hawkstwelve]

Reached 40 at 11:50AM. Now down to 23 with a very cold north wind.

Looks like I might have a little snow moving in soon too.

[Niko]

I can only imagine what it must be like heading towards a wall of dust...never encountered that and I don't think I want to at all.

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty beautiful outside right now with heavy snow and gusty winds creating quite the snow globe effect. Visibility has been greatly reduced. Temp down to 22 but it feels much colder!

[gabel23]

Might be the most impressive wow!!

 

 

[Niko]

I am not sure what is happening to my forecast for next week, but man, those temps are getting substantially warmer (from the low 30s for highs are now showing mid 40s w/ rain chances), not sure if its a glitch or some crazy model they are looking at. The projected cold blast is nearly gone for all of next week. Wow!

[hawkstwelve]

18z GFS was pretty dang snowy for many folks. Shows over a foot here falling here between three different systems after 12/9.

[Clinton]

32 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GFS was pretty dang snowy for many folks. Shows over a foot here falling here between three different systems after 12/9.

Exciting times ahead and I think it will get started late next week.  Models today have trended wetter for the storm on the 8th-10th.