December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

If anyone wants to look ahead to the Dec 12th -19th period I would encourage you to go back to a storm thread we had posted.  "10/23 - 10/30 series of storm/cutters"  it will provide some insight into the upcoming pattern change.

[Niko]

Another potent C-front coming tomorrow. Wind gusts could be as high as 50mph. Any Christmas decor outside could be blown away, if not properly secured.

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like you could see some wrap around snow, this run was very similar to Oct 24th time period and very close to what I am expecting.  A long ways to go and a lot of blocking setting up.  Lets see how it trends.

That looks real nice for ya Clinton. I hope you score bud!

Wooosh!!! and Clinton gets buried near a 10inch snowfall!!!!

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

Another potent C-front coming tomorrow. Wind gusts could be as high as 50mph. Any Christmas decor outside could be blown away, if not properly secured.

The wind is roaring here today.  Quite the wind storm, wind advisories for many,

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Definitely nice to see an active pattern starting to materialize.  There will be lots of changes over the next several days.  Being in KC, I try not to get my hopes up.  Things really have to line up just right for us to get snow.  But at least an active pattern is a good place to start.  

One thing that always seems to help us is when the AO and NAO go negative and we will actually have that on our side as we move into the active part of the pattern.  

[Clinton]

12z GFS further north with the storm on the 8th and 9th.  It's more inline with it ensembles and the ICON.

[GDR]

Also some decent freezing rain and rain with the system.

[GDR]

11th/12th system more north also

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, GDR said:

11th/12th system more north also

Almost 1000 miles north lol

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The 00z GFS for December 9 would be a solution that I would find to be acceptable.

Geez..another Jan '21 storm track - HARD pass on that outcome, lol

[jaster220]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Canadian looks good for us on the 12th but shows some ice on the 8th and 9th yikes.

Nice to see a/the more active period approaching us. Kinda perfect timing in my book - a 3rd of the way into Dec and on-wards.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Geez..another Jan '21 storm track - HARD pass on that outcome, lol

I had 3 double digit snowstorms since the end of Jan 2021 and another that was just under.  I could stand to share a little in that regard.  

[Tom]

The Euro Weeklies basically corrected to showcase the high lat blocking and an active storm track....cold and snow, let's do this...

[CentralNebWeather]

We had this last spring, and could potentially see this in my area later this afternoon as these winds move east.  We are begging for moisture that always seem to fizzle out.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Goodland KS just put out that a wall of dust will be coming right behind the front.  Mentions parts of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska.  What is this, the 1930's?  

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Goodland KS just put out that a wall of dust will be coming right behind the front.  Mentions parts of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska.  What is this, the 1930's?  

Showing up on radar too. Man I would love to see pictures of what this thing looks like!

 

DUST STORM WARNING
NWS GOODLAND KS
151 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2022

KSC153-193-NEC087-022115-
/O.NEW.KGLD.DS.W.0007.221202T1951Z-221202T2115Z/
151 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
Rawlins County KS-Thomas County KS-Hitchcock County NE-

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a

* Dust Storm Warning for...
Thomas County in northwestern Kansas...
Rawlins County in northwestern Kansas...
Hitchcock County in southwestern Nebraska...

* Until 315 PM CST.

* At 150 PM CST, a wall of dust was along a line extending from 7
miles northwest of Culbertson to 10 miles north of McDonald to 12
miles south of St. Francis, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Less than a quarter mile visibility with damaging wind in
excess of 60 mph.

SOURCE...Doppler radar, public reports and satellite imagery.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.


This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 36 and 74.

Locations impacted include...
Colby, Oakley, Atwood, Trenton, Brewster, Levant and Culbertson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

There is no safe place on a highway when a dust storm hits.
Visibility can be lost immediately, making it difficult or impossible
to slow down and avoid stopped vehicles. Delay travel, or safely exit
the highway before the dust storm arrives.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Live view of the Goodland dust storm.  If you go soon, you can see a time lapse of the storm arriving. 

https://www.frontieraginc.com/fccp-sky-cams-20999

 

 

I wonder if that dust will make it here?

[gabel23]

Wow nice work, that's impressive! It's just like the dirty 30's. 

[Iceresistance]

7 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Great, back to blowing dust.  

 

There is a dust storm warning for Kansas and Nebraska right now

[jaster220]

I'd like a side order of this pls..

Including the cities of Mancelona, Gaylord, and Charlevoix
254 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Strong winds and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of up to 2 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as
  45 mph leading to white-out conditions.

[gabel23]

This was taken by the NWS in Good land. A legit Haboob is taking place just incredible. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Niko]

I can only imagine what it must be like heading towards a wall of dust...never encountered that and I don't think I want to at all.

[gabel23]

Might be the most impressive wow!!

 

 

[Niko]

I am not sure what is happening to my forecast for next week, but man, those temps are getting substantially warmer (from the low 30s for highs are now showing mid 40s w/ rain chances), not sure if its a glitch or some crazy model they are looking at. The projected cold blast is nearly gone for all of next week. Wow!

[Clinton]

32 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GFS was pretty dang snowy for many folks. Shows over a foot here falling here between three different systems after 12/9.

Exciting times ahead and I think it will get started late next week.  Models today have trended wetter for the storm on the 8th-10th.  

[Niko]

13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Exciting times ahead and I think it will get started late next week.  Models today have trended wetter for the storm on the 8th-10th.  

Near a foot for Detroit. Sweet!!!!!

[jaster220]

It takes cold air to get dynamic systems and it seems prevalent so far this autumn. Really like seeing stuff like this:

There is now an increasingly likely chance that a short-fused
storm warning will be issued for Saturday morning.

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Niko said:

Near a foot for Detroit. Sweet!!!!!

My adorable puppy has been put on notice. She may be lent to somebody, lol

[gabel23]

Sorry to flood the board with boring stuff but this just amazes me. The haboob is still showing up, granted harder to see, on the radar. This is something straight out of the 30’s. If we don’t see much precip in the plains this winter it’s only gonna get worse. 

 

Blowing Dust Advisory

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY
NWS NORMAN OK
555 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2022

OKZ004>006-009>011-014-015-030300-
/O.NEW.KOUN.DU.Y.0001.221203T0000Z-221203T0300Z/
600 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Roger Mills-Dewey-

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, visibility between one
quarter mile and one mile in blowing dust expected. For the Wind
Advisory, north winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Harper, Woods, Alfalfa, Ellis, Woodward, Major, Roger
Mills and Dewey Counties.

* WHEN...For the Blowing Dust Advisory, until 9 PM CST this
evening. For the Wind Advisory, until 6 AM CST Saturday.

 

[jaster220]

From GRR:

Using a momentum transfer of 10mb (a bit deeper of a calculation)
in BUFKIT overviews for mixing depth some sites in our forecast
area hit 46-48 knots (52-55 mph). That type of mixing is possible
near and behind the cold front. Scattered power outages are
likely from falling limbs and trees. With the leaves gone this
will be tougher to do, but weaker/rotted limbs and trees will
certainly have the opportunity to come down in this type of wind.

[Niko]

NOAA:

Modest warm advection pattern for Saturday night will be interrupted
by a Pacific shortwave racing through Alberta and tracking through
the day on Sunday. A weak warm advection pattern will return for
early next week as sprawling high pressure moves to the Eastern
Seaboard and the upper level flow becomes pseudo zonal for a short
period. Very tight baroclinic zone over the northern Tier of the
CONUS will make for a low confidence forecast by mid week, with
potential southern and northern branch interaction.

 

[jaster220]

Finally sinking in just what the 18z run meant, so I looped it and think I just wet myself, lol. What a wx fantasy run for SMI. Like DEC '00 redux craziness. Three strong storms target this region in roughly a (10) day period. 

[ChiTownSnow]

As this pattern starts to set up after the 7th/8th,  early snowpack may pay dividends for future systems

[OmahaSnowFan]

Had a 52.6 mph IMBY gust just before 630p with the completely dry fropa.

Temps have tanked from 54.5 at 230 to 23.0 degrees now

[jaster220]

@Niko

Here's your Christmas decorations blowin' around  (@9:50)

 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Finally sinking in just what the 18z run meant, so I looped it and think I just wet myself, lol. What a wx fantasy run for SMI. Like DEC '00 redux craziness. Three strong storms target this region in roughly a (10) day period. 

Make December Great Again ---> Made December Great Again

Let's hope.

[OmahaSnowFan]

0Z Euro

[GDR]

Some much needed rain for some

[Tom]

Wind gusts exceeding 100mph+ over the Sierra's and 20-40"+ of Snow...what more could you ask from Mother Nature???  California Cookin'...Park City, UT adding another 9" and bring the season total up to 107" for the season.  Keep.  It.  Coming.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Hmmm, not liking these trends if your near the MW/Lower Lakes region...bad timing to see a spike in the EPO...good for @hawkstwelveand those north of the "Cheddar Curtain"...if your looking for a Silver Lining, this bodes well for the middle of the month for those farther South across the SUB.  Gotta lay the groundwork up north and cover the bare ground.

 

Noticeable trends N with the Snow mean over the past 24 hours...get ready for some nail biting, nerve wrecking, model watching this entire week!  LOLz

 

 

[jaster220]

Noice! It's rockin out there. More intense than Wed morning's CF.

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
714 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2022

MIZ048-049-053>055-061>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-031345-
Bay MI-Livingston MI-Huron MI-Lenawee MI-Genesee MI-Lapeer MI-
Saginaw MI-Monroe MI-St. Clair MI-Wayne MI-Tuscola MI-Sanilac MI-
Macomb MI-Oakland MI-Washtenaw MI-
714 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2022

...Strong winds will impact portions of Tuscola, Wayne, Oakland,
eastern Saginaw, Macomb, Genesee, Huron, western Sanilac, Monroe,
Lapeer, Lenawee, Bay, central St. Clair, eastern Livingston and
Washtenaw Counties through 845 AM EST...

At 711 AM EST, Doppler radar velocity data was tracking the lead
edge of a strong cold front extending from near Standish to near
Flint to near Adrian.

Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph. The strongest winds will last
         roughly an hour in duration.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

The lead edge of the gusty winds will be near...
  Holly around 725 AM EST.
  Clarkston around 750 AM EST.
  Oxford around 800 AM EST.
  Pontiac around 805 AM EST.
  Lambertville around 810 AM EST.
  Troy and Rochester around 820 AM EST.
  Caseville and Pigeon around 825 AM EST.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Anchorville,
Franklin, Carrollton, Rankin, Hudson Mills Metropark, Commerce, Stony
Point, Ellington, New Greenleaf and Auburn Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building

[Clinton]

Breaking the EPS down there is a lot of spread among it's ensemble members.

EPS members through the 14th.

Euro Mean for the 8th-10th

Euro Mean for the 11th-14th

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a mild early December day the official high of 51 was not reached until the 10PM reading, the low was 32. There was 0.03” of rain fall and no snow fall and no sunshine. The temperatures stayed in the upper 40’s for most of the night before the cold front came through between 4 and 5 AM there were wind gusts of up to 44MPH with the front. The low so far is the current temperature of 35. For today the average H/L is 40/28 the record high of 65 was recorded in 1912 and the record low of -6 was recorded in 1976 the record snow fall of 4.0” was in 1996. Today will be a blustery day with temperature falling into the 20’s.

[Clinton]

Cold here this morning but the rollercoaster ride of temperatures will continue into next week with temperatures at normal or below.

[Clinton]

FWIW the 6z Euro control has gone back to a colder solution for Iowa and Illinois for the storm on the 8th - 10th.  The I-80 corridor and north could be in for a nice one.

 

[chescowxman]

Rainfall so far is up to 0.28" - rain should end from the west by around noon. Sunny and colder tomorrow before milder again with showers for mid-week before the pattern change to colder looks to take hold by the end of the work week.

The record high for today is 69 degrees from 1998. Record low is 9 degrees from 1976. Daily rain record is 1.12" from 1905. Daily snow record is the 5.2" that fell today back in 1907.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

FWIW the 6z Euro control has gone back to a colder solution for Iowa and Illinois for the storm on the 8th - 10th.  The I-80 corridor and north could be in for a nice one.

 

I hope this can make it at least a little interesting around here. Another rainer would be par for the course, but chuck me a bone please.

[Niko]

Next week features 40s ( and mid to upper 40s) w rain chances. To sum it all up...near to above normal temps. Not sure how models lost that cold air for next week. It could stay mild and wet till about mid December. Time will tell. So far, first half of December ...No Good!!!! Now, the good thing about this is that people who need to decorate outdoors will have splendid weather for that. So, take it as you wish!!

[Clinton]

12z GEFS showing multiple waves much like the 10/23-10-30 series of storms.  Here is a view of the ensembles to the best of my ability to split them up.  Still lots of spread on precip amounts, type and timing.  Not sure if this will loop but I'll give it a try.