Jump to content

December 2022 Observations and Discussion


Iceresistance

Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Once we get into the latter parts of Week 1, the atmosphere typically has a delayed response to the -NAO block among the other players on the field.  I am really impressed how much blocking is developing in the high lats as we get deeper into DEC.  This month is certainly going to have a much more different Winter-Feel compared to recent DEC's over the past Decade.

image.png

 

The relaxation of the -PNA is also a key ingredient as we do NOT want to see a stout -PNA, more of a slightly neg to neutral is much more favorable for our Sub.

image.png

 

 

Here's the past 4 Decembers.  Not so good for the most part.

Dec18TDeptUS.png

 

Dec19TDeptUS.png

 

Dec20TDeptUS.png

 

Dec21TDeptUS.png

  • Sad 1
  • Facepalm 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's the past 4 Decembers.  Not so good for the most part.

Dec18TDeptUS.png

 

Dec19TDeptUS.png

 

Dec20TDeptUS.png

 

Dec21TDeptUS.png

The '19 and '20 maps could very well end up an exact opposite anomaly compared to this year...the coldest anomalies where its the warmest (Dakotas)...

The latest CFSv2 is heading that Way...

CFSv2.NaT2m.20221128.202212.gif

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Big front looks to blow through here Wednesday evening. Strong forcing/pressure surge with no inversion below 850mb.

Those winds are gonna roar down the lee side of the mountains. Should be easy 50-55mph.

  • Like 1
  • Windy 2
foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Tom said:

The '19 and '20 maps could very well end up an exact opposite anomaly compared to this year...the coldest anomalies where its the warmest (Dakotas)...

The latest CFSv2 is heading that Way...

CFSv2.NaT2m.20221128.202212.gif

 

 

NEEDS to get colder than this, or my wait for snow shall continue while folks to my west get into the action. "NEAR NORMAL" won't cut it around here!

 

22-11-28 NWS D8-14 Outlook.png

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Both the GFS and Euro with a nice looking storm in about the 7-8 day range.  Perhaps our next one to monitor after tomorrow's storm moves out.  

 

 

prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Can I get a side of blocking with that entree please?

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Tom said:

Once we get into the latter parts of Week 1, the atmosphere typically has a delayed response to the -NAO block among the other players on the field.  I am really impressed how much blocking is developing in the high lats as we get deeper into DEC.  This month is certainly going to have a much more different Winter-Feel compared to recent DEC's over the past Decade.

image.png

 

The relaxation of the -PNA is also a key ingredient as we do NOT want to see a stout -PNA, more of a slightly neg to neutral is much more favorable for our Sub.

image.png

 

 

When was the last time we had a block this strong in December.  The jet stream should be fully energized for the December 12th-17th timeframe when some stronger and wetter storms move in.   It would be a good time for a storm to move into the Texas Panhandle and cut my way.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Can I get a side of blocking with that entree please?

You already know what's going to happen.  There is going to be a big snowstorm just north of us, then it's just going to get very cold and dry for 7-10 days.  Then another mini-storm is going to go south.  Then the next storm will bring in a warmer pattern as it misses just north again while we get rain.  Then boom, Green Christmas.  

  • lol 1
  • Facepalm 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

You already know what's going to happen.  There is going to be a big snowstorm just north of us, then it's just going to get very cold and dry for 7-10 days.  Then another mini-storm is going to go south.  Then the next storm will bring in a warmer pattern as it misses just north again while we get rain.  Then boom, Green Christmas.  

#reversepsychology

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Tom things look like they match up really well with the storm back on Oct 11th. We had severe storms form just to my east has we had a cold front swing through. I found your post from back then and the blocking was showing up too! That means the next storm we will have to track, at least the next major one, would be the massive negative tilted storm back on Nov. 3rd through the 5th. That too missed me off to the south and east but with this blocking I'm hoping that one turns into a share the wealth storm! That would be due in about 24 days. Overall, I calculated the cycle to be around 49 or so days what you think? 

The last time I can remember when we had both the AO and NAO be this negative was in 2009. That was an epic winter for a lot of us in the Great Plains; but the LRC set up very well for me in Oct. of that year as it was very wet and cold. Time will tell and it's tough breaking through a drought but I'm hoping things change for the best in the drought stricken areas. 

Screen Shot 2022-11-29 at 9.42.08 AM.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@jaster220Temps look to be in a roller coaster for us in the next couple of days. No snow yet, but turns real cold next week, sometime midweek period, so blocking better cooperate for us and throw us some snowstorms during that timeframe. Last thing I wanna see is all of that cold air go to waste. I.E., Partly cloudy and cold w temps in the 20s and lows in the teens for days and days.

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS really weakens the storm next week now and keeps it well south, mostly a rain event.

The Canadian (GDPS) has never had a storm next week.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

@Tom things look like they match up really well with the storm back on Oct 11th. We had severe storms form just to my east has we had a cold front swing through. I found your post from back then and the blocking was showing up too! That means the next storm we will have to track, at least the next major one, would be the massive negative tilted storm back on Nov. 3rd through the 5th. That too missed me off to the south and east but with this blocking I'm hoping that one turns into a share the wealth storm! That would be due in about 24 days. Overall, I calculated the cycle to be around 49 or so days what you think? 

The last time I can remember when we had both the AO and NAO be this negative was in 2009. That was an epic winter for a lot of us in the Great Plains; but the LRC set up very well for me in Oct. of that year as it was very wet and cold. Time will tell and it's tough breaking through a drought but I'm hoping things change for the best in the drought stricken areas. 

Screen Shot 2022-11-29 at 9.42.08 AM.png

Lezak in his final blog this morning drew the comparisons to October 11th and 12th.  

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Since the weekend, the GFS has done a big reversal on the cold shot for the latter part of next week.  It's now supposed to be a glancing blow rather than a prolonged cold period.  And it's not moving nearly as far south as had been previously forecasted.  Given the GFS's history of overdoing cold fronts, I'm inclined to believe the more recent runs.  But hopefully it will reverse itself again.  It'd be a shame to waste the -AO and -NAO on seasonably warm temps. 

gfs_T2ma_us_fh138-384.gif

Bermuda HP and SER will do that.  Glancing shots and up over the top the cold goes.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

@Tom things look like they match up really well with the storm back on Oct 11th. We had severe storms form just to my east has we had a cold front swing through. I found your post from back then and the blocking was showing up too! That means the next storm we will have to track, at least the next major one, would be the massive negative tilted storm back on Nov. 3rd through the 5th. That too missed me off to the south and east but with this blocking I'm hoping that one turns into a share the wealth storm! That would be due in about 24 days. Overall, I calculated the cycle to be around 49 or so days what you think? 

The last time I can remember when we had both the AO and NAO be this negative was in 2009. That was an epic winter for a lot of us in the Great Plains; but the LRC set up very well for me in Oct. of that year as it was very wet and cold. Time will tell and it's tough breaking through a drought but I'm hoping things change for the best in the drought stricken areas. 

Screen Shot 2022-11-29 at 9.42.08 AM.png

It appears we are all in agreement on the pattern and the cycle length.  I really think this blocked up pattern will deliver moisture farther west and share in the wealth.  I think it was DEC 2009, or thereabouts, when I first joined this Sub through Dominick (rest in peace) and remember reading your posts along with others during the Christmas Blizzard while I was witnessing a brown Christmas!  Hope we can see a "share the wealth"...CO LOW this go around.  Iirc, Dec 2009 was a great month from IA and points west?  There were a couple Blizzards that month that cut NW of Chicago.

Here is one of them Dec 8-9th: Link

Our White Christmas dreams that were wiped away, were then replenished by a "Surprise" thumping of snow after the holiday...

 

image.png

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

2009-2010 was the biggest snow year in KC since 1960.  I was still in Chicago at the time, where I know we had a good snow year as well.  It'd be nice to come anywhere close to that kind of result this year.  I remember the surprise Christmas snow well because I was driving back up from my in-laws in Paxton, IL in that snow on Christmas Eve.

Same here, I was at a friends party in Barrington, IL and it was snowing so beautifully that evening.  I also remember how fluffy the snow was.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tom said:

It appears we are all in agreement on the pattern and the cycle length.  I really think this blocked up pattern will deliver moisture farther west and share in the wealth.  I think it was DEC 2009, or thereabouts, when I first joined this Sub through Dominick (rest in peace) and remember reading your posts along with others during the Christmas Blizzard while I was witnessing a brown Christmas!  Hope we can see a "share the wealth"...CO LOW this go around.  Iirc, Dec 2009 was a great month from IA and points west?  There were a couple Blizzards that month that cut NW of Chicago.

Here is one of them Dec 8-9th: Link

Our White Christmas dreams that were wiped away, were then replenished by a "Surprise" thumping of snow after the holiday...

 

image.png

 

 

I remember Christmas Eve 2009 being kind of icy and with leftover snow on the ground.  At least I think it was that year lol.  That storm right after was something... what an unusual setup.  The surface/upper level features were all west of northern IL and it still managed to do that.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Since the weekend, the GFS has done a big reversal on the cold shot for the latter part of next week.  It's now supposed to be a glancing blow rather than a prolonged cold period.  And it's not moving nearly as far south as had been previously forecasted.  Given the GFS's history of overdoing cold fronts, I'm inclined to believe the more recent runs.  But hopefully it will reverse itself again.  It'd be a shame to waste the -AO and -NAO on seasonably warm temps. 

gfs_T2ma_us_fh138-384.gif

I don't buy what the GFS is selling in the long range.  The week of December 12th should mark the return of the Texas Panhandle cutters that broke our dry spell.  In fact they produced big widespread rainfall.  KC should see some snow that week.

  • Like 3
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I don't buy what the GFS is selling in the long range.  The week of December 12th should mark the return of the Texas Panhandle cutters that broke our dry spell.  In fact they produced big widespread rainfall.  KC should see some snow that week.

I agree. This model tends to do bad for long range forecasts. Not sure why though.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My area is under a "WInd Advisory."

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
215 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-300900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WI.Y.0009.221130T0900Z-221201T0300Z/
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,
Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,
Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
215 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.
  • Like 1
  • Windy 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like FSD had almost 28 inches of snow in December 2009 including 3.5 inches on Christmas Eve and 10.5 inches on Christmas. Snow depth peaked at 19 inches a couple days after Christmas. We also ran -7.4 on the month.

Wow! I would love to have a repeat of that this year!

Geeze, that’s impressive!  Would love to have something like that transpire IMBY.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The front means business.  My temp crashed from 55º to 35º in one hour following the frontal passage.

image.thumb.png.6732204ff76414e60040536f18c99900.png

  • Like 2
  • scream 1
  • Shivering 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Tom if you had a choice, where would you live: AZ or IL.......

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MPX with a great write up for next week. Man that blocking pattern is looking very intense!

For next week, the big weather feature is an anomalously strong
Greenland block that will develop. This ridge will become so strong
that it will actually work across the North Pole and link up with
another ridge over Alaska. This ridge will bifurcate the Polar low,
sending one chunk of it to Siberia and the other to the west side of
Hudson Bay. This a strong negative phase of the AO/NAO and will see
a significant chunk of Arctic Air move south across Canada. At the
same time, there will be ridging across the Gulf Coast and southeast
CONUS, which will setup a very strong temperature gradient across
the CONUS. This baroclinic zone will likely be the breeding
ground for additional precipitation episodes. There will be a rather
large spread in potential temperatures given the well below normal
air coming down out of Canada and the early fall air down in the
southern CONUS. Given how close the cold air will be to us, we look
to be on the cold side of this baroclinic zone, with temperatures
below normal. There will for sure be precipitation breaking out next
week along the strong baroclinic zone, but there is quite a bit of
spread with how far north into the cold air we`ll see precip, with
the GFS/Canadian keeping any precip south of us, while the ECMWF
still shows snow sneaking up to all but our northwest CWA Monday
night into Tuesday.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Niko said:

@Tom if you had a choice, where would you live: AZ or IL.......

Both have their perks…but I’m a 4 seasons kinda guy (except for Springs in Chicago) lol…it’s really a toss up bc I enjoy both climates from each state.  The 4 seasons is a big deal but you can’t deny having such beautiful Spring and Autumn weather out here.  The summers are too much, maybe a month of the Monsoon is enough for me.  This year, I spent a lot of time out here and it’s making me consider of making more of a long term move.  Are you planning on moving?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Tom said:

Both have their perks…but I’m a 4 seasons kinda guy (except for Springs in Chicago) lol…it’s really a toss up bc I enjoy both climates from each state.  The 4 seasons is a big deal but you can’t deny having such beautiful Spring and Autumn weather out here.  The summers are too much, maybe a month of the Monsoon is enough for me.  This year, I spent a lot of time out here and it’s making me consider of making more of a long term move.  Are you planning on moving?

I hear ya.....its wonderful being somewhere where you enjoy it. Great feeling. That is how I feel when I am in Greece in the summer, just splendid weather and rarely do we get any thunderstorms. I also enjoy the mountains the most, especially at nite when the cool winds blow down right at ya and I think I read in one of your posts above somewhere that the best part about being away from the city is seeing all the stars and etc in that deep, dark, crystal clear evening.

As far as moving goes, so far it is not on my schedule for the near term, but who knows down the road, right... 😉

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Uh oh

 

Did I mention that 2010-11 was high (if not #1) on my analog hit list? Pretty sure I did...at least a few times, lol. 

Also remember mentioning how much I DID NOT WANT to witness another repeat of EC snow-maggedon. Uggh. Prolly jinxed @tStacsh again!

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Did I mention that 2010-11 was high (if not #1) on my analog hit list? Pretty sure I did...at least a few times, lol. 

Also remember mentioning how much I DID NOT WANT to witness another repeat of EC snow-maggedon. Uggh. Prolly jinxed @tStacsh again!

I don't want another Christmas 2009 Blizzard. 2009-2010 is a good analog despite being an El Niño winter. 

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Niko said:

I hear ya.....its wonderful being somewhere where you enjoy it. Great feeling. That is how I feel when I am in Greece in the summer, just splendid weather and rarely do we get any thunderstorms. I also enjoy the mountains the most, especially at nite when the cool winds blow down right at ya and I think I read in one of your posts above somewhere that the best part about being away from the city is seeing all the stars and etc in that deep, dark, crystal clear evening.

As far as moving goes, so far it is not on my schedule for the near term, but who knows down the road, right... 😉

Life is more than just work and paying bills and stuck in the Rat Race.  You have to enjoy the simple things in Life and being a wx enthusiast I love the different aspects of the weather that both states provide.  I'm a secret mountain man, deep down inside, I feel like I'll retire somewhere up in the mountains, grow my own food and raise some livestock and live off the land that Mother Earth has always provided.  Greece is def on my bucket list and I'm planning on a Euro Trip sometime next Summer.  Would be awesome to meet up on the islands somewhere!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 298

      June 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 3551

      June 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

    3. 7084

      West Coast Sports Talk and Other Banter

    4. 9160

      Polite Politics

×
×
  • Create New...