December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Hoosier]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Once we get into the latter parts of Week 1, the atmosphere typically has a delayed response to the -NAO block among the other players on the field.  I am really impressed how much blocking is developing in the high lats as we get deeper into DEC.  This month is certainly going to have a much more different Winter-Feel compared to recent DEC's over the past Decade.

 

The relaxation of the -PNA is also a key ingredient as we do NOT want to see a stout -PNA, more of a slightly neg to neutral is much more favorable for our Sub.

 

 

Here's the past 4 Decembers.  Not so good for the most part.

 

 

 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's the past 4 Decembers.  Not so good for the most part.

 

 

 

The '19 and '20 maps could very well end up an exact opposite anomaly compared to this year...the coldest anomalies where its the warmest (Dakotas)...

The latest CFSv2 is heading that Way...

 

 

[Phil]

Big front looks to blow through here Wednesday evening. Strong forcing/pressure surge with no inversion below 850mb.

Those winds are gonna roar down the lee side of the mountains. Should be easy 50-55mph.

[bud2380]

Both the GFS and Euro with a nice looking storm in about the 7-8 day range.  Perhaps our next one to monitor after tomorrow's storm moves out.  

 

 

 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

The '19 and '20 maps could very well end up an exact opposite anomaly compared to this year...the coldest anomalies where its the warmest (Dakotas)...

The latest CFSv2 is heading that Way...

 

 

NEEDS to get colder than this, or my wait for snow shall continue while folks to my west get into the action. "NEAR NORMAL" won't cut it around here!

 

[bud2380]

18z GFS very similar to 12z for this range.  

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Both the GFS and Euro with a nice looking storm in about the 7-8 day range.  Perhaps our next one to monitor after tomorrow's storm moves out.  

 

 

 

Can I get a side of blocking with that entree please?

[Clinton]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

Once we get into the latter parts of Week 1, the atmosphere typically has a delayed response to the -NAO block among the other players on the field.  I am really impressed how much blocking is developing in the high lats as we get deeper into DEC.  This month is certainly going to have a much more different Winter-Feel compared to recent DEC's over the past Decade.

 

The relaxation of the -PNA is also a key ingredient as we do NOT want to see a stout -PNA, more of a slightly neg to neutral is much more favorable for our Sub.

 

 

When was the last time we had a block this strong in December.  The jet stream should be fully energized for the December 12th-17th timeframe when some stronger and wetter storms move in.   It would be a good time for a storm to move into the Texas Panhandle and cut my way.

[tStacsh]

15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Can I get a side of blocking with that entree please?

You already know what's going to happen.  There is going to be a big snowstorm just north of us, then it's just going to get very cold and dry for 7-10 days.  Then another mini-storm is going to go south.  Then the next storm will bring in a warmer pattern as it misses just north again while we get rain.  Then boom, Green Christmas.  

[Tom]

34 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

You already know what's going to happen.  There is going to be a big snowstorm just north of us, then it's just going to get very cold and dry for 7-10 days.  Then another mini-storm is going to go south.  Then the next storm will bring in a warmer pattern as it misses just north again while we get rain.  Then boom, Green Christmas.  

#reversepsychology

[gabel23]

@Tom things look like they match up really well with the storm back on Oct 11th. We had severe storms form just to my east has we had a cold front swing through. I found your post from back then and the blocking was showing up too! That means the next storm we will have to track, at least the next major one, would be the massive negative tilted storm back on Nov. 3rd through the 5th. That too missed me off to the south and east but with this blocking I'm hoping that one turns into a share the wealth storm! That would be due in about 24 days. Overall, I calculated the cycle to be around 49 or so days what you think? 

The last time I can remember when we had both the AO and NAO be this negative was in 2009. That was an epic winter for a lot of us in the Great Plains; but the LRC set up very well for me in Oct. of that year as it was very wet and cold. Time will tell and it's tough breaking through a drought but I'm hoping things change for the best in the drought stricken areas. 

[Niko]

@jaster220Temps look to be in a roller coaster for us in the next couple of days. No snow yet, but turns real cold next week, sometime midweek period, so blocking better cooperate for us and throw us some snowstorms during that timeframe. Last thing I wanna see is all of that cold air go to waste. I.E., Partly cloudy and cold w temps in the 20s and lows in the teens for days and days.

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

#reversepsychology

I'm trying

[bud2380]

GFS really weakens the storm next week now and keeps it well south, mostly a rain event.

 

[Hawkeye]

46 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS really weakens the storm next week now and keeps it well south, mostly a rain event.

The Canadian (GDPS) has never had a storm next week.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

@Tom things look like they match up really well with the storm back on Oct 11th. We had severe storms form just to my east has we had a cold front swing through. I found your post from back then and the blocking was showing up too! That means the next storm we will have to track, at least the next major one, would be the massive negative tilted storm back on Nov. 3rd through the 5th. That too missed me off to the south and east but with this blocking I'm hoping that one turns into a share the wealth storm! That would be due in about 24 days. Overall, I calculated the cycle to be around 49 or so days what you think? 

The last time I can remember when we had both the AO and NAO be this negative was in 2009. That was an epic winter for a lot of us in the Great Plains; but the LRC set up very well for me in Oct. of that year as it was very wet and cold. Time will tell and it's tough breaking through a drought but I'm hoping things change for the best in the drought stricken areas. 

Lezak in his final blog this morning drew the comparisons to October 11th and 12th.  

[tStacsh]

55 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Since the weekend, the GFS has done a big reversal on the cold shot for the latter part of next week.  It's now supposed to be a glancing blow rather than a prolonged cold period.  And it's not moving nearly as far south as had been previously forecasted.  Given the GFS's history of overdoing cold fronts, I'm inclined to believe the more recent runs.  But hopefully it will reverse itself again.  It'd be a shame to waste the -AO and -NAO on seasonably warm temps. 

Bermuda HP and SER will do that.  Glancing shots and up over the top the cold goes.  

[Hoosier]

I think we'll lose some of that warmth way out in the extended.  

You don't want too much suppression either.  That won't work outside of the lake effect snow areas.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

@Tom things look like they match up really well with the storm back on Oct 11th. We had severe storms form just to my east has we had a cold front swing through. I found your post from back then and the blocking was showing up too! That means the next storm we will have to track, at least the next major one, would be the massive negative tilted storm back on Nov. 3rd through the 5th. That too missed me off to the south and east but with this blocking I'm hoping that one turns into a share the wealth storm! That would be due in about 24 days. Overall, I calculated the cycle to be around 49 or so days what you think? 

The last time I can remember when we had both the AO and NAO be this negative was in 2009. That was an epic winter for a lot of us in the Great Plains; but the LRC set up very well for me in Oct. of that year as it was very wet and cold. Time will tell and it's tough breaking through a drought but I'm hoping things change for the best in the drought stricken areas. 

It appears we are all in agreement on the pattern and the cycle length.  I really think this blocked up pattern will deliver moisture farther west and share in the wealth.  I think it was DEC 2009, or thereabouts, when I first joined this Sub through Dominick (rest in peace) and remember reading your posts along with others during the Christmas Blizzard while I was witnessing a brown Christmas!  Hope we can see a "share the wealth"...CO LOW this go around.  Iirc, Dec 2009 was a great month from IA and points west?  There were a couple Blizzards that month that cut NW of Chicago.

Here is one of them Dec 8-9th: Link

Our White Christmas dreams that were wiped away, were then replenished by a "Surprise" thumping of snow after the holiday...

 

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro had a nice little shift south with the Friday system. One more of those and FSD/MSP could see another inch or two possibly.

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

2009-2010 was the biggest snow year in KC since 1960.  I was still in Chicago at the time, where I know we had a good snow year as well.  It'd be nice to come anywhere close to that kind of result this year.  I remember the surprise Christmas snow well because I was driving back up from my in-laws in Paxton, IL in that snow on Christmas Eve.

Same here, I was at a friends party in Barrington, IL and it was snowing so beautifully that evening.  I also remember how fluffy the snow was.

[hawkstwelve]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

It appears we are all in agreement on the pattern and the cycle length.  I really think this blocked up pattern will deliver moisture farther west and share in the wealth.  I think it was DEC 2009, or thereabouts, when I first joined this Sub through Dominick (rest in peace) and remember reading your posts along with others during the Christmas Blizzard while I was witnessing a brown Christmas!  Hope we can see a "share the wealth"...CO LOW this go around.  Iirc, Dec 2009 was a great month from IA and points west?  There were a couple Blizzards that month that cut NW of Chicago.

Here is one of them Dec 8-9th: Link

Our White Christmas dreams that were wiped away, were then replenished by a "Surprise" thumping of snow after the holiday...

 

 

 

Looks like FSD had almost 28 inches of snow in December 2009 including 3.5 inches on Christmas Eve and 10.5 inches on Christmas. Snow depth peaked at 19 inches a couple days after Christmas. We also ran -7.4 on the month.

Wow! I would love to have a repeat of that this year!

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

It appears we are all in agreement on the pattern and the cycle length.  I really think this blocked up pattern will deliver moisture farther west and share in the wealth.  I think it was DEC 2009, or thereabouts, when I first joined this Sub through Dominick (rest in peace) and remember reading your posts along with others during the Christmas Blizzard while I was witnessing a brown Christmas!  Hope we can see a "share the wealth"...CO LOW this go around.  Iirc, Dec 2009 was a great month from IA and points west?  There were a couple Blizzards that month that cut NW of Chicago.

Here is one of them Dec 8-9th: Link

Our White Christmas dreams that were wiped away, were then replenished by a "Surprise" thumping of snow after the holiday...

 

 

 

I remember Christmas Eve 2009 being kind of icy and with leftover snow on the ground.  At least I think it was that year lol.  That storm right after was something... what an unusual setup.  The surface/upper level features were all west of northern IL and it still managed to do that.

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Since the weekend, the GFS has done a big reversal on the cold shot for the latter part of next week.  It's now supposed to be a glancing blow rather than a prolonged cold period.  And it's not moving nearly as far south as had been previously forecasted.  Given the GFS's history of overdoing cold fronts, I'm inclined to believe the more recent runs.  But hopefully it will reverse itself again.  It'd be a shame to waste the -AO and -NAO on seasonably warm temps. 

I don't buy what the GFS is selling in the long range.  The week of December 12th should mark the return of the Texas Panhandle cutters that broke our dry spell.  In fact they produced big widespread rainfall.  KC should see some snow that week.

[Niko]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I don't buy what the GFS is selling in the long range.  The week of December 12th should mark the return of the Texas Panhandle cutters that broke our dry spell.  In fact they produced big widespread rainfall.  KC should see some snow that week.

I agree. This model tends to do bad for long range forecasts. Not sure why though.

[Niko]

My area is under a "WInd Advisory."

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
215 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-300900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WI.Y.0009.221130T0900Z-221201T0300Z/
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,
Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,
Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
215 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.

[james1976]

Man that Dec 6-7 storm died fast 

[hawkstwelve]

Along with the site that Hoosier shared, I wanted to share another one that I have come across for recent pattern re-analysis. I'm a visual person so this has helped me learn a bit more about the LRC and identifying the repeating patterns.

Here's the site where you can pick what data you want shown on the map: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.narr.html

Here's a map that's available for showing geopotential heights from various pressure levels: https://psl.noaa.gov/mddb2/makePlot.html?variableID=116113

Below is the 500mb map from 10/11 and the 500mb map from today. While things are slightly shifted in some areas, the big players are there: big vortex over eastern Siberia with a closed low pressure and accompanying ridge downstream over the Pacific, a trough digging down through the middle of the country, and a ridge over SE US. Interesting stuff!

[Tom]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like FSD had almost 28 inches of snow in December 2009 including 3.5 inches on Christmas Eve and 10.5 inches on Christmas. Snow depth peaked at 19 inches a couple days after Christmas. We also ran -7.4 on the month.

Wow! I would love to have a repeat of that this year!

Geeze, that’s impressive!  Would love to have something like that transpire IMBY.

[hawkstwelve]

Following 10/11 we had about a two week dry period with our next system hitting on 10/26 and 10/27. Here's the 500mb pattern at that point which looks to feature mostly zonal flow and a slightly suppressed jet across the CONUS. As Clinton alluded to, I think this will be the next period to watch for storm activity especially in the S/Central Plains and into the GL region.

[Hawkeye]

The front means business.  My temp crashed from 55º to 35º in one hour following the frontal passage.

[Niko]

@Tom if you had a choice, where would you live: AZ or IL.......

[james1976]

MPX with a great write up for next week. Man that blocking pattern is looking very intense!

For next week, the big weather feature is an anomalously strong
Greenland block that will develop. This ridge will become so strong
that it will actually work across the North Pole and link up with
another ridge over Alaska. This ridge will bifurcate the Polar low,
sending one chunk of it to Siberia and the other to the west side of
Hudson Bay. This a strong negative phase of the AO/NAO and will see
a significant chunk of Arctic Air move south across Canada. At the
same time, there will be ridging across the Gulf Coast and southeast
CONUS, which will setup a very strong temperature gradient across
the CONUS. This baroclinic zone will likely be the breeding
ground for additional precipitation episodes. There will be a rather
large spread in potential temperatures given the well below normal
air coming down out of Canada and the early fall air down in the
southern CONUS. Given how close the cold air will be to us, we look
to be on the cold side of this baroclinic zone, with temperatures
below normal. There will for sure be precipitation breaking out next
week along the strong baroclinic zone, but there is quite a bit of
spread with how far north into the cold air we`ll see precip, with
the GFS/Canadian keeping any precip south of us, while the ECMWF
still shows snow sneaking up to all but our northwest CWA Monday
night into Tuesday.

[OmahaSnowFan]

We're digging out from our trace snowfall. Which gives us a trace so far this winter.

Meanwhile, LOLZ.

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, james1976 said:

Man that Dec 6-7 storm died fast 

12z Euro has a nice looking storm for Nebraska and Iowa.  KC could finds its way on to the southern edge.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

@Tom if you had a choice, where would you live: AZ or IL.......

Both have their perks…but I’m a 4 seasons kinda guy (except for Springs in Chicago) lol…it’s really a toss up bc I enjoy both climates from each state.  The 4 seasons is a big deal but you can’t deny having such beautiful Spring and Autumn weather out here.  The summers are too much, maybe a month of the Monsoon is enough for me.  This year, I spent a lot of time out here and it’s making me consider of making more of a long term move.  Are you planning on moving?

[james1976]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro has a nice looking storm for Nebraska and Iowa.  KC could finds its way on to the southern edge.

Nice. 18z GFS still doesn't have it but I'd prolly buy the Euro over the GFS 7+ days out in any season.

[Iceresistance]

Uh oh

 

[Niko]

15 minutes ago, Tom said:

Both have their perks…but I’m a 4 seasons kinda guy (except for Springs in Chicago) lol…it’s really a toss up bc I enjoy both climates from each state.  The 4 seasons is a big deal but you can’t deny having such beautiful Spring and Autumn weather out here.  The summers are too much, maybe a month of the Monsoon is enough for me.  This year, I spent a lot of time out here and it’s making me consider of making more of a long term move.  Are you planning on moving?

I hear ya.....its wonderful being somewhere where you enjoy it. Great feeling. That is how I feel when I am in Greece in the summer, just splendid weather and rarely do we get any thunderstorms. I also enjoy the mountains the most, especially at nite when the cool winds blow down right at ya and I think I read in one of your posts above somewhere that the best part about being away from the city is seeing all the stars and etc in that deep, dark, crystal clear evening.

As far as moving goes, so far it is not on my schedule for the near term, but who knows down the road, right...

[jaster220]

44 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Uh oh

 

Did I mention that 2010-11 was high (if not #1) on my analog hit list? Pretty sure I did...at least a few times, lol. 

Also remember mentioning how much I DID NOT WANT to witness another repeat of EC snow-maggedon. Uggh. Prolly jinxed @tStacsh again!

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Nice. 18z GFS still doesn't have it but I'd prolly buy the Euro over the GFS 7+ days out in any season.

I don't look for it to be a big storm but maybe that big block can spice it up a little.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Did I mention that 2010-11 was high (if not #1) on my analog hit list? Pretty sure I did...at least a few times, lol. 

Also remember mentioning how much I DID NOT WANT to witness another repeat of EC snow-maggedon. Uggh. Prolly jinxed @tStacsh again!

I don't want another Christmas 2009 Blizzard. 2009-2010 is a good analog despite being an El Niño winter. 

[Tom]

11 hours ago, Niko said:

I hear ya.....its wonderful being somewhere where you enjoy it. Great feeling. That is how I feel when I am in Greece in the summer, just splendid weather and rarely do we get any thunderstorms. I also enjoy the mountains the most, especially at nite when the cool winds blow down right at ya and I think I read in one of your posts above somewhere that the best part about being away from the city is seeing all the stars and etc in that deep, dark, crystal clear evening.

As far as moving goes, so far it is not on my schedule for the near term, but who knows down the road, right...

Life is more than just work and paying bills and stuck in the Rat Race.  You have to enjoy the simple things in Life and being a wx enthusiast I love the different aspects of the weather that both states provide.  I'm a secret mountain man, deep down inside, I feel like I'll retire somewhere up in the mountains, grow my own food and raise some livestock and live off the land that Mother Earth has always provided.  Greece is def on my bucket list and I'm planning on a Euro Trip sometime next Summer.  Would be awesome to meet up on the islands somewhere!

[Tom]

0z EPS starting to sniff out a wave along the thermal gradient pattern that'll set up over the MW somehere later next week.  Boy, that -NAO is a thing of beauty... @Clintonand KC peeps may need to watch the 12/7-12/9 period and up into the OHV.  I am noticing the EPS is pressing the cold air farther south the past couple runs starting early next week.

My attn then focus's in on the 12/11 - 12/13 period and beyond as the North American 500mb pattern is ripe with storms and cold to deliver the goods....Giddy Up!  The active part of the LRC is showing up and I think its going to provide some noteworthy winter storms come mid month.  I have envisioned an opined that a CO Low or Two during this upcoming period from 12/13 - 12/20.  @CentralNebWeather I think your overdue and the rest of the NE crew...#ShareTheWealth

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

40 minutes ago, Tom said:

Life is more than just work and paying bills and stuck in the Rat Race.  You have to enjoy the simple things in Life and being a wx enthusiast I love the different aspects of the weather that both states provide.  I'm a secret mountain man, deep down inside, I feel like I'll retire somewhere up in the mountains, grow my own food and raise some livestock and live off the land that Mother Earth has always provided.  Greece is def on my bucket list and I'm planning on a Euro Trip sometime next Summer.  Would be awesome to meet up on the islands somewhere!

Absolutely. Hit a couple of beach bars and talk about weather for a bit. Sounds like a plan to me.

[tStacsh]

The trusty Icon has a snowstorm on the 5th/6th in Michigan   

[chescowxman]

Well this has certainly changed a bit over the last couple weeks....

[MIKEKC]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS starting to sniff out a wave along the thermal gradient pattern that'll set up over the MW somehere later next week.  Boy, that -NAO is a thing of beauty... @Clintonand KC peeps may need to watch the 12/7-12/9 period and up into the OHV.  I am noticing the EPS is pressing the cold air farther south the past couple runs starting early next week.

My attn then focus's in on the 12/11 - 12/13 period and beyond as the North American 500mb pattern is ripe with storms and cold to deliver the goods....Giddy Up!  The active part of the LRC is showing up and I think its going to provide some noteworthy winter storms come mid month.  I have envisioned an opined that a CO Low or Two during this upcoming period from 12/13 - 12/20.  @CentralNebWeather I think your overdue and the rest of the NE crew...#ShareTheWealth

 

 

 

 

Let's GO!!! 

[bud2380]

GFS shows another round of wintry weather for the upper midwest on Friday.  

 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

The trusty Icon has a snowstorm on the 5th/6th in Michigan   

It's a butt sniffer model, but occasionally will put it's nose in the air and smell something on its own. Leading the way??