PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Kolk1604]

Hmmm Block looks better at this time 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at cams, the areas just north of Redmond (Terrabone), and between Redmond and Prineville (Powell Butte), are getting absolutely destroyed with heavy snow right now. 

Link?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

This is another reminder for everyone as the weather gets exciting for more snow during the next few weeks.

We've had OT posts before when the posting rate was very high, if you see one that violates Off-Topic Rules, please report it! This can be the only way to help the Admins and Moderators see the post when the posting rate is high as they can miss it because they are trying to catch up on all of the posts that we've had done.

Looks like it's going to be fairly chilly in Bartlesville later this week. Some 40/20 type days, I bet Bville drops into the teens, they are the frost hollow of NE Oklahoma. 

[Kolk1604]

Day 6

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Link?

https://www.tripcheck.com/Pages/Custom-Cameras

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

https://www.tripcheck.com/Pages/Custom-Cameras

 

Holy shitttt

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 6

That might just get there... its a little better than the 00Z run and the 00Z run was really close.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Day 6

If the base can maintain and that thing pivots a litte... So help me GOSH. 

[Meatyorologist]

Trend this season to spill digging Arctic troughs to the west. I did wonder for a while if that would end up working in our favor eventually

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was looking at Oregon snow pack this morning. Willamette Basin sitting at about 200% of normal. We are in a good spot to be heading into a long dry spell. It's interesting because overall precip over the past two months has generally been at or below average. However, since the end of October we have not seen any warm systems with high snow levels, pretty much every weather maker has produced snow at pass levels, or if snow levels have gone above the passes it has just been very briefly. 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That might just get there... its a little better than the 00Z run and the 00Z run was really close.

Improvements at days 4-5. Already a win

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Was looking at Oregon snow pack this morning. Willamette Basin sitting at about 200% of normal. We are in a good spot to be heading into a long dry spell. It's interesting because overall precip over the past two months has generally been at or below average. However, since the end of October we have not seen any warm systems with high snow levels, pretty much every weather maker has produced snow at pass levels, or if snow levels have gone above the passes it has just been very briefly. 

I'd be shocked if we go longer than 5 or 6 days without precip. It can happen but once you get to about day 6 the odds really fall fast for anything longer.

[Terreboner]

The Ogden Wayside cam is about a mile and a half down the road from me.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Trend this season to spill digging Arctic troughs to the west. I did wonder for a while if that would end up working in our favor eventually

I wonder if anyone else here wonders if Arctic troughs will dig west?

[Kolk1604]

Day 7

So much cold air to tap into and it's moving west 

[Terreboner]

In Oregon, the primary impacts are expected to be felt from the
east slopes of the Cascades down into central and north-central
Oregon and into the foothills of the southern Blue Mountains, and
east in Wallowa County. A band of moderate to heavy snow has set
up across central Oregon with reports of several inches of snow
already fallen. Have opted to upgrade the Winter Weather Advisory
to a Winter Storm Warning for central Oregon as latest HREF and
NBM guidance suggests an additional half inch to three quarters
of an inch of liquid equivalent will fall through the afternoon.
Additional snow totals of up to 3 to 5 inches are forecast along a
corridor from Bend to Madras with more uncertainty in totals
further north from Warm Springs to Grass Valley along HWY-197 and
HWY-97. Temperatures are hovering just below to just above
freezing with lower levels fully saturated. Precipitation rates
support continued snow in the deformation band even for areas a
couple degrees above freezing, and low/mid-level upslope flow
also supports impactful precipitation totals through the day as
the low tracks east.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Day 7

So much cold air to tap into and it's moving west 

I'd like to see that ridge tilt a little in order to deliver the COAST 2 COAST BLAST!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

The Ogden Wayside cam is about a mile and a half down the road from me.

How much do you have now?

[TT-SEA]

I now think the 12Z EPS will as good or better than the 00Z run!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Need more pics boner.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is definitely better than its 00Z run early next week.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I now think the 12Z EPS will as good or better than the 00Z run!  

It's coming.

[snow_wizard]

Nice improvement on the ECMWF.  If tonight's run is as much better it would be really good.

[Meatyorologist]

Pivotal just doesn't seem to work for me anymore. 

[TT-SEA]

Is that an arctic front next Monday?    I think so.

[Kolk1604]

Day 8

 

[Phishy Wx]

that is a perfect setup for a backdoor blast down the Purcell Trench from N ID into E WA

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Need more pics boner.

Please no boner pics 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Pivotal just doesn't seem to work for me anymore. 

It was working for me on mobile for a bit earlier but it's really slow and stops working sometimes

[TT-SEA]

This ECMWF just un-did all the bad trends on the GFS.    Its sticking to its guns and even improving a little.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Pivotal just doesn't seem to work for me anymore. 

its toast

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Pivotal just doesn't seem to work for me anymore. 

@Gradient KeeperDude you really have some explaining to do 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just winging it here, but it seems the main difference right now between the EURO and the GFS is that the EURO keeps the ridge more amplified, and its a bit further west. It wouldn't take much for the GFS to move in a much more favorable direction. 

[Phishy Wx]

I think it's an inside job by Pivotal to get us to buy premium content. screw that

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like it's going to be fairly chilly in Bartlesville later this week. Some 40/20 type days, I bet Bville drops into the teens, they are the frost hollow of NE Oklahoma. 

I love frost pockets!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This ECMWF just un-did all the bad trends on the GFS.    Its sticking to its guns and even improving a little.

This run is very close to a major arctic outbreak. 

[Kolk1604]

Day 9... is it... reorganizing?! 

[Doinko]

Looks like backdoor arctic air into eastern WA and OR

 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just winging it here, but it seems the main difference right now between the EURO and the GFS is that the EURO keeps the ridge more amplified, and its a bit further west. It wouldn't take much for the GFS to move in a much more favorable direction. 

I really like this run.  the PV gets close and we have that solid ridge bridge.  The ECMWF is just small tweaks away from a great run.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 9... is it... reorganizing?! 

KONA low.  That's a good one!