PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

27 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

Thanks! More warm members at the end than I was expecting (of course those values will undoubtedly change many times).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at cams south central Oregon is getting slammed right now. Looks like everything south of downtown in Bend is snow now too. 

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at cams south central Oregon is getting slammed right now. Looks like everything south of downtown in Bend is snow now too. 

Ya, that happens during normal episodes.  It is still 35.7 here but dropping.  The real stuff doesn't get here until 4 or 5 I'm thinking.

 

[Terreboner]

Maybe if we had radar we could track it, but we don't.  Pretty pathetic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the mesoscales models I think the NWS is going to take a huge whiff on this central Oregon snow event. 3k NAM shows 10-15” in the Ochocco mountains and 5-10” across a large swath of Deshutes, Jefferson, and Crook counties. Also around a foot of snow along the Cascade crest. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snooze fest so far on this GFS

[WeatherGeek2022]

37 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Are you 21 yet? We need to take you out for a beer if so.

I don't like the idea of introducing bad habits.

[Terreboner]

13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

I don't like the idea of introducing bad habits.

That's some super-weenie dialogue.  Good night. 

[Meatyorologist]

Bad GFS run. Fortunately it's against the EPS

[WeatherGeek2022]

Just now, Terreboner said:

That's some super-weenie dialogue.  Good night. 

Proud weenie. Good night 

[The Blob]

3 hours ago, Terreboner said:

You guys crack me up.  The ups and downs of this forum are like going from Death Valley to Mt. Everest every 3 hours.

Can we pin this? This has to be my favourite post.

2 hours ago, Terreboner said:

Some late night levity.  My wife is asleep and hopefully "the blob" has gone to bed.

No, I'm pulling 50-60 hour weeks on top of being awake during the day to take care of the kids. Plus my sons school had 2 bomb threats this week so I'm a little stressed.

[Cold Snap]

Fell asleep around 11:30 and woke up just now and decided to check the forum and see how the EPS did tonight and all I have to say is wow to that EPS mean. If that holds it’s definitely coming.

[Cloud]

That was an awful 06z run. And the GEFS seems to go along with it as well. 

We still have the EPS.. let see what the 12z says. 

[TT-SEA]

Much too early to be up!

One note... we need the EPS to settle down as well.   That was a big change from the 12Z to 00Z runs yesterday and it's probably related to this complex retrogression situation.    The models picked up on something new last night.   It's hard to trust a moving target.   Hopefully the EPS runs today look like the 00Z run last night... then confidence will be sky high.

[High Desert Mat?]

9 hours ago, Terreboner said:

Name the TV show. 

It’s Salomon not Salmon!

[High Desert Mat?]

Woke up around 4:30 and it is dumpin outside. I’m with Andrew in this one, could be a huge whiff on the NWS on this one. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

56 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Woke up around 4:30 and it is dumpin outside. I’m with Andrew in this one, could be a huge whiff on the NWS on this one. 

Just did a cam tour of central Oregon. Looks magical. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah let’s just pretend the 06z GFS never happened.

[Everleigh]

Gotta say, the mood swings around here are enough to give a person whiplash...lol

I am thoroughly confused and have no idea what is happening.   

[TT-SEA]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah let’s just pretend the 06z GFS never happened.

I can ignore a 06Z GFS run... but the 06Z GEFS has me a little worried.    Need to see the EPS stick to its guns this morning.

[Timmy]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I can ignore a 06Z GFS run... but the 06Z GEFS has me a little worried.    Need to see the EPS stick to its guns this morning.

You can only be as worried as anyone can be exited about a good gfs run.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Timmy said:

You can only be as worried as anyone can be exited about a good gfs run.

This is very true.   The GFS flails around so its impossible to trust and easy to ignore bad runs.     But the GEFS is slightly more reliable... not by much though.  

[TT-SEA]

I wish central OR had better radar coverage.   Looks like the entire central and eastern part of the state is getting snow today.

[Terreboner]

Good morning!!  Absolutely dumping and a complete whiteout.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Good morning!!  Absolutely dumping and a complete whiteout.

Pics!    

[Terreboner]

Ya, I will in a little bit. Trying to get the little one situated and get the pets taken care of.

[TacomaWx]

Low of 42 this morning…up to 2.12” MTD. Looked outside and my snow piles are officially gone now the last 2 days were not good for keeping the snow piles alive. 

[Iceresistance]

CPC looks amazing for everyone who is a cold lover!

[High Desert Mat?]

Still coming down and like what Josh said, pretty much a whiteout. 4” so far. 31.2 degrees. 

[Requiem]

5 hours ago, Terreboner said:

Are you 21 yet? We need to take you out for a beer if so.

Couple years!

[Terreboner]

Here you go Tim, and everyone else.  Some pics.

[Doinko]

This is pretty amazing

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Here you go Tim, and everyone else.  Some pics.

Spectacular... love how its sticking to the trees too.  

[LowerGarfield]

8 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

You can call me AL

"No one can see or hear this run but you!"

[Snownerd3000]

Poker went LATE and i might have out drank the a goofus last night. What did i miss? 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Spectacular... love how its sticking to the trees too.  

Yes, it is weighing down the 2 big ones by the house so the branches are hanging over the deck.  They should issue a WSW pretty soon.

[LowerGarfield]

7 hours ago, Terreboner said:

Melatonin is good if you take just enough to sleep.  A couple shots of Pendletons works real good if you do them right before bed.

A couple shots of Pendleton's usually means a copy paste AFD. They must really be on to something lol.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

A couple shots of Pendleton's usually means a copy paste AFD. They must really be on to something lol.

True story my friend.

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

True story my friend.

Love the pictures. How much do you have so far?

[Terreboner]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Love the pictures. How much do you have so far?

4, going on 5.  They think this could go on to the early evening.  If that happens we will be getting over a foot.  We shall see.