PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Phishy Wx]

can't get pivotal to load.  what's up with that?

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still drive thru only but I let the kids stand on my center console and have their heads out the sunroof for maximum light viewing! They loved that! 

Drive thru?  Wow, that's sad.  So much of their best stuff was going in the stores, listening to live music, etc.  And how can you talk to Bruce the Spruce if you have to stay in your car?

[Cold Snap]

Day 8 comparison on the 00z GEFS to 18z Definitely trended warmer.

[RentonHill]

The CMCE hasnt abandoned us yet!

 

[Nov1985]

Eastern Canada with temps well below freezing, weeeeeeeee!

 

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still drive thru only but I let the kids stand on my center console and have their heads out the sunroof for maximum light viewing! They loved that! 

We went up there one year when our boys were little... it was awesome.    Do they actually think people are spreading COVID outside in the rain?   

Or maybe its a staffing issue?

[TT-SEA]

The EPS will probably be exactly the same.   Its like the adult in the room while the GFS is a little toddler running around screaming.   

[Meatyorologist]

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still drive thru only but I let the kids stand on my center console and have their heads out the sunroof for maximum light viewing! They loved that! 

When I was that age, I also was enthralled by christmas lights

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We went up there one year when our boys were little... it was awesome.    Do they actually think people are spreading COVID outside in the rain?   

Or maybe its a staffing issue?

I wondered too, website says staffing issues.

[Guest administrator]

Passing out mod previews tonight. Merry Christmas everyone.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I wondered too, website says staffing issues.

Ahhh... that makes more sense.   Still sad.  

[Cold Snap]

Looks like the GEFS in the mid-range has trended more towards back door cold. Still happy as long as it’s cold.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Looks like the GEFS in the mid-range has trended more towards back door cold. Still happy as long as it’s cold.

The ensembles are probably best in this situation... much more steady.    Nothing has really changed in the big picture.   

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Drive thru?  Wow, that's sad.  So much of their best stuff was going in the stores, listening to live music, etc.  And how can you talk to Bruce the Spruce if you have to stay in your car?

Bruce the Spruce talks to you via your car stereo now LOL! Yeah it’s different for sure but I think they could sell more tickets this way so they kept it post COVID. Plus staffing issues you a few have mentioned. The concessions are also all drive thru. 

Edited December 11, 2022 by MossMan

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

When I was that age, I also was enthralled by christmas lights

I still am…And I’m in my mid 40’s lol! 

[Gummy]

6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Looks like the GEFS in the mid-range has trended more towards back door cold. Still happy as long as it’s cold.

When is the last time the Puget Sound has had a really cold air mass due to backdoor cold?

[Nov1985]

00z GEFS. last 4. Same cold --> warm --> cold --> warm pattern as the operational. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

When is the last time the Puget Sound has had a really cold air mass due to backdoor cold?

February 2014 comes to mind... cold and dry.   But Eugene was buried in snow so it was not totally dry. 

[TT-SEA]

I think February 2006 is another good example of backdoor cold.  

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

February 2014 comes to mind... cold and dry.   But Eugene was buried in snow so it was not totally dry. 

We had snow falling at 18 degrees at 6pm on 2/6/2014. Ended up with around 9-10" of snow from 2/6-2/8

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

We had snow falling at 18 degrees at 6pm on 2/6/2014. Ended up with around 9-10" of snow from 2/6-2/8

Yeah... I am probably wrong about that being backdoor.    I don't remember the pattern.   I just remember it being bright and sunny and cold but with no snow on the ground during the Seahawks victory parade.

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I am probably wrong about that being backdoor.    I don't remember the pattern.   I just remember it being bright and sunny and cold but with no snow during the Seahawks victory parade.

I think it was backdoor with three overrunning systems in a good position for the Willamette Valley. Very strong east winds too I remember.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I am probably wrong about that being backdoor.    I don't remember the pattern.   I just remember it being bright and sunny and cold but with no snow on the ground during the Seahawks victory parade.

That was such an awesome day downtown. Good times. 

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The ensembles are probably best in this situation... much more steady.    Nothing has really changed in the big picture.   

I’m almost wondering if it’s the “pulsating egg” effect since it seems like every other model run is good, then less good, then good again…And so on? 

[RentonHill]

Day 2

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I’m almost wondering if it’s the “pulsating egg” effect since it seems like every other model run is good, then less good, then good again…And so on? 

Need Matt to chime in on that one.

[snow_wizard]

This has to be some of the worst model consistency of all time.  Must be a very delicate tipping point of whether this will work out for us or not.  Can't wait to see what the ECMWF says tonight.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I am probably wrong about that being backdoor.    I don't remember the pattern.   I just remember it being bright and sunny and cold but with no snow on the ground during the Seahawks victory parade.

I remember Marshawn looked a little cold. 

[RentonHill]

Day 3. Squished ridge a la GFS? 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m almost wondering if it’s the “pulsating egg” effect since it seems like every other model run is good, then less good, then good again…And so on? 

I think there's a certain point in the pattern evolution that is very crucial to our success.  Something where one tiny thing gets blown up into something big as the pattern evolves.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I remember Marshawn looked a little cold. 

he was warm af drinking that fireball the whole time i thought

[BLI snowman]

 

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I am probably wrong about that being backdoor.    I don't remember the pattern.   I just remember it being bright and sunny and cold but with no snow on the ground during the Seahawks victory parade.

Definitely more backdoor. The cold air advection was largely directed at us from the east with that one with rather weak Fraser River outflow. The trough axis never really extended very far offshore, either, but came just west enough to spin up the moisture that slammed NW OR and SW WA.  

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

he was warm af drinking that fireball the whole time i thought

That’s right!! 

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This has to be some of the worst model consistency of all time.  Must be a very delicate tipping point of whether this will work out for us or not.  Can't wait to see what the ECMWF says tonight.

This also seems like a situation where a big event could show up within 5 days with no warning.    

[RentonHill]

Meanwhile, back at the asylum....some GEFS members want to start retro Days 12-13....like EPS showed already for a few runs. 

[RentonHill]

Day 4

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This also seems like a situation where a big event could show up within 5 days with no warning.    

A lot of our best snows come that way. We need some marginal 925 and 850T combo for that play out. Right now both seem to torch a little Dec 15 to 19th or so. Hoping 00z EC sticks with cooling around the 20th. EPS moves east quickly after that but that could change.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This pattern is sure ripe for surprises and/or major busts.   I would refrain from telling people anything until its imminent.   

It's going to change from a boring run like we had tonight to a major blast of snow and cold in 2 runs. 

[Terreboner]

I'm sure by morning or tomorrow afternoon you guys will be talking different, you always do.  I'm going to enjoy waking up to a nice snowfall.  Temp is plummeting and a nice plume of moisture is heading my way.  Merry Christmas and life is D**n good!!!

[RentonHill]

Hmmm