PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have to say it… 

winter cancel?!

Andrews back!!!! 

[Christensen87]

Terrible. Is it possible to get a consistent run for once? 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

Terrible. Is it possible to get a consistent run for once? 

Immodium helps.

[MossMan]

Let The Euro Shine! 
Fun evening at the Lights of Christmas! 

[Cold Snap]

Back home after going down to San Francisco for a family trip. Currently 41. Sadly came back to no snow cover but still have some of the piles! Here’s the current situation.

[Requiem]

Fairly consistent low level cold on the GFS if nothing else. Shades of January 2009 in there (I believe that was also the month with very persistent and strong offshore flow in the east metro).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So it would appear it’s all over?

[Terreboner]

The pessimism of some people!!  I don't even know how you got anywhere in life honestly.

[umadbro]

Any ensembles yet?

[Meatyorologist]

Nothing much changed. It's close.

Notice how before most of our cold snaps, things look *almost* poised on LR ensemble runs, then come into place just under a week out. Not sweating anything given that our potential is limited to D8+.

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So it would appear it’s all over?

It was one single run of a model that has been remarkably inconsistent-- I wouldn't worry one single bit. Six hours ago the hype train was ready to go, and in another six hours we may as well have another balls to the wall cold run. There's little consistency at this point.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Requiem said:

It was one single run of a model that has been remarkably inconsistent-- I wouldn't worry one single bit. Six hours ago the hype train was ready to go, and in another six hours we may as well have another balls to the wall cold run. There's little consistency at this point.

So just another night on the forum in the winter when waiting for the next event?

[LowerGarfield]

58 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Santa Cruz Mtns getting pounded with rain.  good for CA.  I use to live right up the road from this

 

 

Yes, the Santa Cruz Mtns are often the big winners in a Norcal rainstorm. Traditionally for North Bay (rain) specials, the areas near Guernville / Santa Rosa do well. But the area near Boulder Creek / Ben Lommond / Felton routinely gets Western WA amounts of rainfall during storms.

[LowerGarfield]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Let The Euro Shine! 
Fun evening at the Lights of Christmas! 

Is it still drive in only? It was better when you could walk outside in the cold 35 degree rain and warm up with the hot chocolate or warm doughnuts.

[LowerGarfield]

11 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Back home after going down to San Francisco for a family trip. Currently 41. Sadly came back to no snow cover but still have some of the piles! Here’s the current situation.

The ghost of ECMF models past?

[Meatyorologist]

00z GEFS has a similar run-to-run adjustment as its operational run. Let's see where the EPS goes.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty sure Matt said the 00Z would be different during the 18Z celebration.     Guess what... the 12Z will be different again!  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

In other news, take the Panthers +4 vs the Hawks tomorrow and parlay it with the 49ers ML.

It’ll be fun to watch the ballgames outside tomorrow with a little action on the games.

[TT-SEA]

This pattern is sure ripe for surprises and/or major busts.   I would refrain from telling people anything until its imminent.   

[Weiner Warrior]

We are screwed. Just told the family that winter is canceled and we're all going to Florida for a month. 43 degrees and no precip for the next 3 months. It's over. Sad day here

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty sure Matt said the 00Z would be different during the 18Z celebration.     Guess what... the 12Z will be different again!  

And so will the 06z in between those two runs!

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty sure Matt said the 00Z would be different during the 18Z celebration.     Guess what... the 12Z will be different again!  

Thank god he warned us—we would have never seen that coming.

[Meatyorologist]

An encouraging theme I've noticed is that on all ensemble members, and even ensemble means, blocking is a persistent feature. Even if the details don't come together, it's usually rife with potential. It's hard to fret when at any given moment over the course of the next two weeks minimum, we are liable for a sudden board-wide improvement and immanent Arctic blast.

[Weiner Warrior]

I'll be selling these shirts to pay for my therapist bill. He'll be helping me through this non snow/cold 3 months.

[TT-SEA]

Little explosion of precip on the way back from Seattle for the second time this evening.   I checked the radar before I left and it looked it was all done... then hit heavy rain again starting around Mercer Island through Issaquah.   I was fighting the temptation to check my phone because I was so curious to see what changed.    Now that we are home I can see what happened and it looked pretty unusual on radar.

Also clocked my time... from my driveway to right in the middle of the skyscrapers on I-5 was 29 minutes.   

[Nov1985]

At least we have consistency here from GFS.   00z

[Nov1985]

Waa waa waa

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GEFS has a similar run-to-run adjustment as its operational run. Let's see where the EPS goes.

What do you mean? That it sux? 

[LowerGarfield]

6 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

We are screwed. Just told the family that winter is canceled and we're all going to Florida for a month. 43 degrees and no precip for the next 3 months. It's over. Sad day here

Sad indeed. Is the snow only fans website real or just a fun fakeout? It's not actual porn right? I'd love to see a snow only fans but don't want to click if it's not safe.

[Weiner Warrior]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

Sad indeed. Is the snow only fans website real or just a fun fakeout? It's not actual porn right? I'd love to see a snow only fans but don't want to click if it's not safe.

The only way to find out is if you click on it! 

[Dave]

It's time for someone to post the Hitler video of all our cold sliding to the east.

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty sure Matt said the 00Z would be different during the 18Z celebration.     Guess what... the 12Z will be different again!  

But what about the 06z!!!???

[Nov1985]

Everything is fine.

 

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

The only way to find out is if you click on it! 

I did. Too bad that link is as fake as the new GFS :P.

[Meatyorologist]

Block is too far east on the GFS OP, almost too far west on the CMC OP. Who knows lol

[Nov1985]

850Ts 12/19 through xmas

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

But what about the 06z!!!???

It will be very, very different.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 minutes ago, Dave said:

It's time for someone to post the Hitler video of all our cold sliding to the east.

 

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Is it still drive in only? It was better when you could walk outside in the cold 35 degree rain and warm up with the hot chocolate or warm doughnuts.

Still drive thru only but I let the kids stand on my center console and have their heads out the sunroof for maximum light viewing! They loved that! 

[Nov1985]

The 00z GFS was a great run for Nova Scotia.