PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Phil]

14 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Massive trough develops over the NW Pacific on this run.  It's just a matter of how long it will take for this thing to come together.  The chances are good that it will.

Yeah the NW Pacific trough is good. Will maintain wave driving that favors -EPO tendency. And keep the PV at bay, so long as it continues.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Wouldn't really call the 00z EPS old. We'll find out here soon 

12 hours, I don't know much EPS usually changes run to run.

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This would definitely be leading to something very good... that blocking high is curving around to the north of the trough and would continue to push it westward.

Yeah that is beautiful. Pattern progression actually looks pretty realistic for once as well.

[Doinko]

Not sure why everyone was so negative after the 06z GFS run, the Euro and EPS look a lot better. Day 10 looks fantastic on the Euro

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

Not sure why everyone was so negative after the 06z GFS run, the Euro and EPS look a lot better. Day 10 looks fantastic on the Euro

Day 10 on the EURO is like hour 384 on the GFS. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Day 10 on the EURO is like hour 384 on the GFS. 

So, you're telling me that the Euro at 240hrs is a accurate as GFS at 384 hours?

[RentonHill]

EPS vs Operational - hr156

[OysterPrintout]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Not sure why everyone was so negative after the 06z GFS run, the Euro and EPS look a lot better. Day 10 looks fantastic on the Euro

you may have just accidentally read 40 of andrew's posts and attributed them as a broad consensus

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Day 10 on the EURO is like hour 384 on the GFS. 

In reality, day 10 on the Euro is like hour 120 on the GFS. And that's being generous to the GFS.

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Day 10 on the EURO is like hour 384 on the GFS. 

I guess, but it also keeps the cutoff farther offshore allowing for the east winds to keep blowing and for the low level cold to intensify as well. Shows highs just around freezing in Portland

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS vs Operational - hr156

WOW! Retrograde better and soon! Looks like GEM.

[RentonHill]

EPS vs Op - hr 174 - 850s - start to see difference here up north where the split happens

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I guess, but it also keeps the cutoff farther offshore allowing for the east winds to keep blowing and for the low level cold to intensify as well. Shows highs just around freezing in Portland

It was a joke buddy. 

[RentonHill]

From my really bad eyes EPS looks pretty in step with Euro so far. Map differences may just be combo of timing, resolution, +some outliers skewing. 

[RentonHill]

Day 8 EPS vs Operational - 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Day 8 EPS vs Operational - 

Got 500mb for this? Looks great, timing ahead of OP.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Got 500mb for this? Looks great, timing ahead of OP.

[Doinko]

Going by his podcast Mark Nelsen seems to be bullish on how cold we get next week. I think he talked about east side snow cover which could make the low level cold colder than modeled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Going by his podcast Mark Nelsen seems to be bullish on how cold we get next week. I think he talked about east side snow cover which could make the low level cold colder than modeled.

@Gradient Keeper, did you hack Mark's pod? 

[RentonHill]

Day 10 12z vs 00z EPS. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@Gradient Keeper, did you hack Mark's pod? 

Negative. Lol

Oh, and the EPS looks far better than the Op. It handles that nagging and problematic cut-off low Day 4-6 far better, and it splits with the NAO ridge. EPS holds serve. The GFS continues to be lost.

18z GFS in 2 hours 10 minutes

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Day 10 12z vs 00z EPS. 

Little better? Hard to tell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've never listed to Mark's pod, which is kind of weird because I listen to a lot of pods, I think I am just worried it might suck and then I might think less of him. Heard he has Camila Orti on this one too, I think she spends 2-3 hours a day in the gym. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well my security camera video of the thundersnow made it on The Weather Channel and some other stations which was pretty cool to see! A small consolation prize for missing out I guess.

That’s awesome dude!

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thanks man, because the GFS is trending towards a 2000-01 nightmare. Pretty safe to say it’s a trend now. 

Lol you should change your screen name to quicksilver. 

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Not even going to post the latest GFS PNA forecast…It’s ugly. Hopefully the Euro PNA ensemble forecast looks better. 

PNA (by itself) is overrated. The event in February 2021 occurred during +PNA, along with many others.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure I trust how the ensembles just get crazy cold in the long range.    This does not look like an extremely cold pattern to me.    

That could be (or evolve into) a very cold pattern. Verbatim there’s no escape route for arctic air..blocked in NE Canada and -EPO blocks off the pacific (and advects cold southward).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That’s awesome dude!

Lol you should change your screen name to quicksilver. 

PNA (by itself) is overrated. The event in February 2021 occurred during +PNA, along with many others.

That could be (or evolve into) a very cold pattern. Verbatim there’s no escape route for arctic air..blocked in NE Canada and -EPO blocks off the pacific (and advects cold southward).

Welcome back. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian ensembles vastly improved. Through Day 11.5

[DeepFriedEgg]

58 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I really really wish last years December thread was still in existence. Would have been nice to view those details again. I do remember a lot of models and forum members floundering around almost all the way up to the event. 

I mean it was pretty disappointing for PDX metro....

[TT-SEA]

Just about 5 inches... checked about 10 places in the yard.   Very uniform melting this time.   

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I mean it was pretty disappointing for PDX metro....

To be entirely fair with just minor tweaks several recent disappointing PDX events could have been very fruitful. Pattern-wise December 2021 was pretty good-- some of the minor synoptic details did not work out in our favor. Let's get that pattern locked down first

 

But yes, I understand and empathize with your frustration as a whole.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I mean it was pretty disappointing for PDX metro....

It was nice seeing snow start falling on the night of the 25th. I think we ended up with only like 3" total but I still enjoyed it. Disappointing that the Arctic air didn't make it all the way south though

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Welcome back. 

Still catching up on what I missed. Might go AWOL again over the next week but should have more free time thereafter.

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS leads the way on this. GEM is close. GFS will come around soon enough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

To be entirely fair with just minor tweaks several recent disappointing PDX events could have been very fruitful. Pattern-wise December 2021 was pretty good-- some of the minor synoptic details did not work out in our favor. Let's get that pattern locked down first

 

But yes, I understand and empathize with your frustration as a whole.

Reminded me a bit of January 2012, in that the arctic air never really made it past Chehalis. Though it was a bit colder down here overall than with that one. 

[smerfylicious]

Finally the sun is peaking out so I can see how the mountains are doing and...well I find it hard to put into words how much I love living here.

Last pic you can see the clear snow line from last night's moisture...just needed to drop another 500 feet oh well.

Mt. Stickney:

Gunn Range:bonus Stickney, stupidly expensive gas and snowline:

[TT-SEA]

Control run going good places as well by day 12.   Another Christmas miracle incoming! 

[DeepFriedEgg]

15 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Little better? Hard to tell.

Worse, cold dumps east on 12z....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Control run going good places as well by day 12.   Another Christmas miracle incoming! 

I would like to see that energy in the Pacific a little further west. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Control run going good places as well by day 12.   Another Christmas miracle incoming! 

Enough forcing for that trough though?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would like to see that energy in the Pacific a little further west. 

Yep, and better tilt, and the block is getting too far north with a skinny base. Arctic trough may not dig too much further.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Yep, and better tilt, and the block is getting too far north with a skinny base. Arctic trough may not dig too much further.

My mini-panic attack today was mostly due to the fact that if you look at a lot of these runs, you can start to see a path towards the ridge pinching off at the base and the door opening to BSF.