Clinton Posted December 16, 2022 Report Share Posted December 16, 2022 Christmas week looks to start with a weaker but efficient system ejecting from the SW into the Central Plains. Models have been trending snowier with this system and some will see some light accumulations before the much anticipated big storm later in the week. For the KC area temperatures will be key as to how much snow will accumulate and there is a chance that a White Christmas could be in the bag before the big storm arrives a few days later. Further north for Eastern Nebraska and Iowa temps will be no problem as a few inches look to accumulate. This afternoons GFS holds the storms strength a little better up north and is a little cooler for Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri. 18z GEFS at 10:1 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2022 Report Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: Christmas week looks to start with a weaker but efficient system ejecting from the SW into the Central Plains. Models have been trending snowier with this system and some will see some light accumulations before the much anticipated big storm later in the week. For the KC area temperatures will be key as to how much snow will accumulate and there is a chance that a White Christmas could be in the bag before the big storm arrives a few days later. Further north for Eastern Nebraska and Iowa temps will be no problem as a few inches look to accumulate. This afternoons GFS holds the storms strength a little better up north and is a little cooler for Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri. 18z GEFS at 10:1 Not a bad start to Christmas week! Good Omen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Tom said: Not a bad start to Christmas week! Good Omen I thinks so. The models have certainly trended well for many of us today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 16, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2022 EAX discussion: Warm/moist air advection will commence as early as Sunday night and while the moisture will not be robust, there should be enough incoming to increase clouds Sunday night and begin precipitation by Monday morning. As the surface low pivots eastward, expect surface conditions to either remain steady or slightly warm within the southerly flow. Initially precipitation will be a wintry mix, generally favoring snow, but there could be an outside chance at some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle should the lower atmosphere not saturate well enough to get ice crystal formation. Surface temperatures will likely remain in the lower to middle 30s through the day, but the exact temperature scenario for Monday is a bit uncertain. This forecast package hugs the concept of the GFS pretty closely, in that if there is a good amount of precipitation on Monday, it will be difficult for surface conditions to get much warmer than 34 to 35 degrees, so we dropped highs on Monday 1-3 degrees below NBM guidance. Due to this surge of relatively "warm" air in the lower levels the precipitation type forecast for Monday is also uncertain. GFS vertical profiles would suggest mostly snow through the day despite surface temperatures warming into the middle 30s. An initial look at the NAM and the EC shows a slightly more aggressive push of warmer air, which would cause any ongoing snow to become more of a rain/snow mixture. Overall, the synoptic signals indicate a very marginal thermal profile for impactful snow, but minor variations, perhaps caused by internal thermodynamics, such as wet-bulbing could cause P-type to be more snow and more accumulation would ensue. At any rate, the precipitation type forecast for Monday will be very tricky. Right now, the lean is that much of the early precipitation will be snow, and that could transition into an inefficiently accumulating slushy mix later in the day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 00z NAM is weak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 HR 60 of 00Z HRW-FV3- looks very similar to 18z GFS (2nd image) 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: HR 60 of 00Z HRW-FV3- looks very similar to 18z GFS (2nd image) GFS is just a touch colder than the other models. I would like it to be a degree or two colder for mby which is possible. This little system could sneak up on some people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 RDPS trending stronger also--- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 0z GFS a little lighter on the totals for most vs 18z but not a lot of change. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 0z CMC not good for KC or mby on this run but overall seems to be trending towards the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 ^^ some of that above is from current system--- totals for this thread are about 2" in C.IA-- but we will gladly take every flake!!! 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Some of the GFS ensembles have a strip of higher totals along the I-70 corridor. These ensembles are using 10:1 ratios which look unlikely for KC but it does increase my confidence that a few inches may accumulate. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 6z GFS still showing a nice snow from Topeka up towards Des Moines. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 6z NAM and RGEM coming around with a few inches of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 EAX morning take on this storm. Lets hope it moves in early for KC Confidence has increased that accumulating snow is likely; however, snow amounts are far from deduced. Surface air temperatures around freezing greatly affect how much snow vs water will accumulate. If snow is able to cover the ground before the "heat" of the day, high temperatures will most likely be lower compared to current expectations. If that is the case, more snow will accumulate. If that is not the case, more snow will melt, turn into water, and likely refreeze Monday evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z GFS has shifted the light snow band further west. EAX first accumulation map showing a dusting to 2 inches across the area. @mlgamercould lock in a white Christmas early. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Omaha going with a whopping 30% chance of snow here Monday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 18z 3km NAM - still snowing in E IA at the end of the run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 18z NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, BMT said: 18z NAM Yes please. Clubs in Vilas county haven't opened the trails yet, for once letting a base set up. This would be fantastic! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Clinton said: 18z GFS has shifted the light snow band further west. EAX first accumulation map showing a dusting to 2 inches across the area. @mlgamercould lock in a white Christmas early. Could be, but this may turn into a big slopfest. May need that next system to tidy things up...lol. 1 Quote 22-23 Total Snowfall: 6.1" as of 03/18/23. 37% of normal to date. King of the 1" snowfalls (0.6", 1.5", 1.0", 1.0, 1.1", 0.4", 0.2", 0.3") Last snowfall >6": Feb 4, 2014: 13" (nine years and counting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Could be, but this may turn into a big slopfest. May need that next system to tidy things up...lol. Ya I think so too. But it seems like these little storms over perform sometimes and I just have a feeling someone is going to get a little surprise out of this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Madtown said: Yes please. Clubs in Vilas county haven't opened the trails yet, for once letting a base set up. This would be fantastic! Phases with a weak system moving across the northern plains. Gives you some extra fluff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: Ya I think so too. But it seems like these little storms over perform sometimes and I just have a feeling someone is going to get a little surprise out of this. Yeah, wouldn't it be great if we could pull off a "snow on snow" with the Wed/Thu system...and right before Christmas to make it even better! lol 2 Quote 22-23 Total Snowfall: 6.1" as of 03/18/23. 37% of normal to date. King of the 1" snowfalls (0.6", 1.5", 1.0", 1.0, 1.1", 0.4", 0.2", 0.3") Last snowfall >6": Feb 4, 2014: 13" (nine years and counting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, mlgamer said: Yeah, wouldn't it be great if we could pull off a "snow on snow" with the Wed/Thu system...and right before Christmas to make it even better! lol Now we're asking for to much lol! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Yeah, wouldn't it be great if we could pull off a "snow on snow" with the Wed/Thu system...and right before Christmas to make it even better! lol EAX lowering temps for Monday and saying ratios would be around 10:1. That's a bit of a game changer when you look at the QPF. Isentropic lift ~295K surface begins after 06Z but intensifies in earnest after 12Z Monday. Initial lift will likely aid in saturating the near surface layer, but warm layer aloft should wet bulb down to support snow. With coordination of surrounding offices, have raised pops in to the likely range with lift focused on the 15-00Z Tuesday time frame. With snow ratios ~10:1, should be a fairly wet snow, which may mix with rain at times Monday afternoon as near surface temperatures marginally warm. With that said, have cooled forecast highs a bit for Monday, which should keep the favored precipitation type largely snow. Models are still varying on QPF amounts for Monday with the GFS and ECMWF suggesting 0.1-0.2" for the area while the NAM suggests closer to 0.4" across eastern Kansas into western Missouri. 18z GFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 This mornings GFS continues to look good for E. Kansas where the earlier arrival of the snow may keeps temps lower. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 EAX morning discussion involving tomorrows snow chances. .Discussion... Issued at 334 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2022 Key Messages - Widespread light snowfall is expected Monday. Snow is expected to last most of the morning with around 1-2 inches expected across W MO and far E KS and around 1 inch across central and northern MO. - Snow is expected during the morning hours including the morning commute. A slow transition to rain is expected during the afternoon. This combined with some melting during the day will lead to icy roads overnight Monday into Tuesday. Travel may be hazardous. Please be cautious and plan extra time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 a few 12z Hi-Res models for this appetizer. Hopefully i can squeeze out an inch or two before the midweek system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Clinton said: EAX morning discussion involving tomorrows snow chances. .Discussion... Issued at 334 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2022 Key Messages - Widespread light snowfall is expected Monday. Snow is expected to last most of the morning with around 1-2 inches expected across W MO and far E KS and around 1 inch across central and northern MO. - Snow is expected during the morning hours including the morning commute. A slow transition to rain is expected during the afternoon. This combined with some melting during the day will lead to icy roads overnight Monday into Tuesday. Travel may be hazardous. Please be cautious and plan extra time. If only temps can be 2-3 degrees cooler! Hopefully it will stick to the grass areas longer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said: If only temps can be 2-3 degrees cooler! Hopefully it will stick to the grass areas longer Hopefully you and Mlgamer can keep this on the ground tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 up to 2-3" tomorrow night here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 Sigh…. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 Looks like this is mainly a rainer here. Light rain and 37 degrees in MBY at 6:50 AM. Everything is wet. 1 1 Quote 22-23 Total Snowfall: 6.1" as of 03/18/23. 37% of normal to date. King of the 1" snowfalls (0.6", 1.5", 1.0", 1.0, 1.1", 0.4", 0.2", 0.3") Last snowfall >6": Feb 4, 2014: 13" (nine years and counting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 Todays system was a complete bust. I had a dusting of snow before it all turned to rain. There wasn’t any cold air. Oh well, there will be plenty of cold air when the next system comes Wednesday! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: Todays system was a complete bust. I had a dusting of snow before it all turned to rain. There wasn’t any cold air. Oh well, there will be plenty of cold air when the next system comes Wednesday! I'm in meetings the next 2 days it would have been disappointing for it to have snowed and missed it because of work. On to the big dog! I will be off for that one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 Getting a little refresher here in Omaha this morning... it started with some light freezing drizzle and sleet, however we have turned to all snow now and the ground has whitened up again. This band is maybe only 10-15 miles wide, however I am right in the middle of it for once (yellow dot). We are looking at a few hours of light snow... maybe we can squeeze an inch or so out of this system before it wraps up. This is definitely a nice warmup before the "bigger show" arrives on Wednesday night and Thursday. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 The GFS is about the only model that showed this!!! Hopefully a sign that it has the upper hand of predicting the next blizzard! ENJOY! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, gabel23 said: The GFS is about the only model that showed this!!! Hopefully a sign that it has the upper hand of predicting the next blizzard! ENJOY! GFS scored the coup on this system for sure... even getting some moderate snow now with reduced visibilities here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 50 minutes ago, gabel23 said: The GFS is about the only model that showed this!!! Hopefully a sign that it has the upper hand of predicting the next blizzard! ENJOY! Was just popping in to mention that I believe the GFS was the only model showing this system 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 This wave looks pretty impressive in MN at the moment? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 hows it doing for those in omaha? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Madtown said: This wave looks pretty impressive in MN at the moment? Maybe half inch so far up here. NWS now calling for 2-3" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 Things have gotten slick here from mist. I have heard of reports of some accidents north of Columbus. I have to run my daughter and I to the doctor in David City, which is 20 miles away. Will see how slick it is on highway 92. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, gabel23 said: Things have gotten slick here from mist. I have heard of reports of some accidents north of Columbus. I have to run my daughter and I to the doctor in David City, which is 20 miles away. Will see how slick it is on highway 92. here in fremont when i had to pick up meds a few hours ago, it was pretty bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, jcwxguy said: hows it doing for those in omaha? It was enough to cover everything a bit, but now is quickly melting as it’s warmed to 34 here and there’s light rain falling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 Front has moved through and is tanking temps. Back to sleet and snow showers and everything icing back up 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 19, 2022 Report Share Posted December 19, 2022 Wasn't supposed to be much here in DSM- but was still expecting more by this time-- just random flakes. Maybe over night 1/2"-- but so far this has been a bust. Better to bust on this then later in the week.... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 About an inch down here. Very impressive ratios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Nice steady snow here - starting to accumulate. Radar looks good too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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