December 19th-20th Plains Appetizer

[Clinton]

Christmas week looks to start with a weaker but efficient system ejecting from the SW into the Central Plains.  Models have been trending snowier with this system and some will see some light accumulations before the much anticipated big storm later in the week.  For the KC area temperatures will be key as to how much snow will accumulate and there is a chance that a White Christmas could be in the bag before the big storm arrives a few days later.  Further north for Eastern Nebraska and Iowa temps will be no problem as a few inches look to accumulate.  

This afternoons GFS holds the storms strength a little better up north and is a little cooler for Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri.

18z GEFS at 10:1

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Christmas week looks to start with a weaker but efficient system ejecting from the SW into the Central Plains.  Models have been trending snowier with this system and some will see some light accumulations before the much anticipated big storm later in the week.  For the KC area temperatures will be key as to how much snow will accumulate and there is a chance that a White Christmas could be in the bag before the big storm arrives a few days later.  Further north for Eastern Nebraska and Iowa temps will be no problem as a few inches look to accumulate.  

This afternoons GFS holds the storms strength a little better up north and is a little cooler for Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri.

18z GEFS at 10:1

Not a bad start to Christmas week!  Good Omen

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

Not a bad start to Christmas week!  Good Omen

I thinks so.  The models have certainly trended well for many of us today!

[Clinton]

EAX discussion:

Warm/moist air advection will commence as early as Sunday night and
while the moisture will not be robust, there should be enough
incoming to increase clouds Sunday night and begin precipitation by
Monday morning. As the surface low pivots eastward, expect surface
conditions to either remain steady or slightly warm within the
southerly flow. Initially precipitation will be a wintry mix,
generally favoring snow, but there could be an outside chance at
some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle should the lower
atmosphere not saturate well enough to get ice crystal formation.
Surface temperatures will likely remain in the lower to middle 30s
through the day, but the exact temperature scenario for Monday is a
bit uncertain. This forecast package hugs the concept of the GFS
pretty closely, in that if there is a good amount of precipitation
on Monday, it will be difficult for surface conditions to get much
warmer than 34 to 35 degrees, so we dropped highs on Monday 1-3
degrees below NBM guidance. Due to this surge of relatively "warm"
air in the lower levels the precipitation type forecast for Monday
is also uncertain. GFS vertical profiles would suggest mostly snow
through the day despite surface temperatures warming into the middle
30s. An initial look at the NAM and the EC shows a slightly more
aggressive push of warmer air, which would cause any ongoing snow to
become more of a rain/snow mixture. Overall, the synoptic signals
indicate a very marginal thermal profile for impactful snow, but
minor variations, perhaps caused by internal thermodynamics, such as
wet-bulbing could cause P-type to be more snow and more accumulation
would ensue. At any rate, the precipitation type forecast for Monday
will be very tricky. Right now, the lean is that much of the early
precipitation will be snow, and that could transition into an
inefficiently accumulating slushy mix later in the day.

[BMT]

00z NAM is weak

[Grizzcoat]

HR 60 of 00Z HRW-FV3- looks very similar to 18z GFS (2nd image)

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

HR 60 of 00Z HRW-FV3- looks very similar to 18z GFS (2nd image)

GFS is just a touch colder than the other models.  I would like it to be a degree or two colder for mby which is possible.  This little system could sneak up on some people.

[Grizzcoat]

RDPS trending stronger also---

[Clinton]

0z GFS a little lighter on the totals for most vs 18z but not a lot of change.

[Clinton]

0z CMC not good for KC or mby on this run but overall seems to be trending towards the GFS.

 

[Grizzcoat]

^^ some of that above is from current system--- totals for this thread are about 2" in C.IA-- but we will gladly take every flake!!!

[Clinton]

Some of the GFS ensembles have a strip of higher totals along the I-70 corridor.  These ensembles are using 10:1 ratios which look unlikely for KC but it does increase my confidence that a few inches may accumulate.

[Clinton]

6z GFS still showing a nice snow from Topeka up towards Des Moines.

[Clinton]

6z NAM and RGEM coming around with a few inches of snow.

[Clinton]

EAX morning take on this storm.  Lets hope it moves in early for KC

Confidence has increased
that accumulating snow is likely; however, snow amounts are far from
deduced. Surface air temperatures around freezing greatly affect how
much snow vs water will accumulate. If snow is able to cover the
ground before the "heat" of the day, high temperatures will most
likely be lower compared to current expectations. If that is the
case, more snow will accumulate. If that is not the case, more snow
will melt, turn into water, and likely refreeze Monday evening.

[Clinton]

18z GFS has shifted the light snow band further west.  EAX first accumulation map showing a dusting to 2 inches across the area.  @mlgamercould lock in a white Christmas early.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Omaha going with a whopping 30% chance of snow here Monday 

[BMT]

18z 3km NAM  - still snowing in E IA at the end of the run.  

[BMT]

18z NAM 

[Madtown]

12 minutes ago, BMT said:

18z NAM 

Yes please. Clubs in Vilas county haven't opened the trails yet, for once letting a base set up. This would be fantastic!

[mlgamer]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

18z GFS has shifted the light snow band further west.  EAX first accumulation map showing a dusting to 2 inches across the area.  @mlgamercould lock in a white Christmas early.

Could be, but this may turn into a big slopfest. May need that next system to tidy things up...lol.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Could be, but this may turn into a big slopfest. May need that next system to tidy things up...lol.

Ya I think so too.  But it seems like these little storms over perform sometimes and I just have a feeling someone is going to get a little surprise out of this.

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Madtown said:

Yes please. Clubs in Vilas county haven't opened the trails yet, for once letting a base set up. This would be fantastic!

Phases with a weak system moving across the northern plains.  Gives you some extra fluff.

[mlgamer]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Ya I think so too.  But it seems like these little storms over perform sometimes and I just have a feeling someone is going to get a little surprise out of this.

Yeah, wouldn't it be great if we could pull off a "snow on snow" with the Wed/Thu system...and right before Christmas to make it even better! lol

[Clinton]

Just now, mlgamer said:

Yeah, wouldn't it be great if we could pull off a "snow on snow" with the Wed/Thu system...and right before Christmas to make it even better! lol

Now we're asking for to much lol!

[Clinton]

14 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Yeah, wouldn't it be great if we could pull off a "snow on snow" with the Wed/Thu system...and right before Christmas to make it even better! lol

EAX lowering temps for Monday and saying ratios would be around 10:1.  That's a bit of a game changer when you look at the QPF.

Isentropic lift ~295K surface begins after 06Z but intensifies in
earnest after 12Z Monday. Initial lift will likely aid in saturating
the near surface layer, but warm layer aloft should wet bulb down to
support snow. With coordination of surrounding offices, have raised
pops in to the likely range with lift focused on the 15-00Z Tuesday
time frame. With snow ratios ~10:1, should be a fairly wet snow,
which may mix with rain at times Monday afternoon as near surface
temperatures marginally warm.  With that said, have cooled forecast
highs a bit for Monday, which should keep the favored precipitation
type largely snow. Models are still varying on QPF amounts for
Monday with the GFS and ECMWF suggesting 0.1-0.2" for the area while
the NAM suggests closer to 0.4" across eastern Kansas into western
Missouri.

18z GFS

[Clinton]

This mornings GFS continues to look good for E. Kansas where the earlier arrival of the snow may keeps temps lower.  

[Clinton]

EAX morning discussion involving tomorrows snow chances.

.Discussion...
Issued at 334 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2022

Key Messages

- Widespread light snowfall is expected Monday. Snow is expected to
last most of the morning with around 1-2 inches expected across W MO
and far E KS and around 1 inch across central and northern MO.

- Snow is expected during the morning hours including the morning
commute. A slow transition to rain is expected during the
afternoon. This combined with some melting during the day will lead
to icy roads overnight Monday into Tuesday. Travel may be hazardous.
Please be cautious and plan extra time.

[BMT]

a few 12z  Hi-Res models for this appetizer.  Hopefully i can squeeze out an inch or two before the midweek system.  

[Jayhawker85]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

EAX morning discussion involving tomorrows snow chances.

.Discussion...
Issued at 334 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2022

Key Messages

- Widespread light snowfall is expected Monday. Snow is expected to
last most of the morning with around 1-2 inches expected across W MO
and far E KS and around 1 inch across central and northern MO.

- Snow is expected during the morning hours including the morning
commute. A slow transition to rain is expected during the
afternoon. This combined with some melting during the day will lead
to icy roads overnight Monday into Tuesday. Travel may be hazardous.
Please be cautious and plan extra time.

If only temps can be 2-3 degrees cooler! Hopefully it will stick to the grass areas longer

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

If only temps can be 2-3 degrees cooler! Hopefully it will stick to the grass areas longer

Hopefully you and Mlgamer can keep this on the ground tomorrow.

[Madtown]

up to 2-3" tomorrow night here

[OmahaSnowFan]

Sigh….

 

[mlgamer]

Looks like this is mainly a rainer here. Light rain and 37 degrees in MBY at 6:50 AM. Everything is wet.

[Jayhawker85]

Todays system was a complete bust. I had a dusting of snow before it all turned to rain. There wasn’t any cold air. Oh well, there will be plenty of cold air when the next system comes Wednesday!

[Clinton]

30 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Todays system was a complete bust. I had a dusting of snow before it all turned to rain. There wasn’t any cold air. Oh well, there will be plenty of cold air when the next system comes Wednesday!

I'm in meetings the next 2 days it would have been disappointing for it to have snowed and missed it because of work.  On to the big dog! I will be off for that one.

[Bryan1117]

Getting a little refresher here in Omaha this morning... it started with some light freezing drizzle and sleet, however we have turned to all snow now and the ground has whitened up again. This band is maybe only 10-15 miles wide, however I am right in the middle of it for once (yellow dot).

We are looking at a few hours of light snow... maybe we can squeeze an inch or so out of this system before it wraps up. 

This is definitely a nice warmup before the "bigger show" arrives on Wednesday night and Thursday. 

[gabel23]

The GFS is about the only model that showed this!!! Hopefully a sign that it has the upper hand of predicting the next blizzard! ENJOY!

[Bryan1117]

9 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

The GFS is about the only model that showed this!!! Hopefully a sign that it has the upper hand of predicting the next blizzard! ENJOY!

GFS scored the coup on this system for sure... even getting some moderate snow now with reduced visibilities here.

[james1976]

50 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

The GFS is about the only model that showed this!!! Hopefully a sign that it has the upper hand of predicting the next blizzard! ENJOY!

Was just popping in to mention that I believe the GFS was the only model showing this system 

[Madtown]

This wave looks pretty impressive in MN at the moment?

[jcwxguy]

hows it doing for those in omaha? 

[james1976]

1 hour ago, Madtown said:

This wave looks pretty impressive in MN at the moment?

Maybe half inch so far up here. NWS now calling for 2-3"

[gabel23]

Things have gotten slick here from mist. I have heard of reports of some accidents north of Columbus. I have to run my daughter and I to the doctor in David City, which is 20 miles away. Will see how slick it is on highway 92. 

[jcwxguy]

4 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Things have gotten slick here from mist. I have heard of reports of some accidents north of Columbus. I have to run my daughter and I to the doctor in David City, which is 20 miles away. Will see how slick it is on highway 92. 

here in fremont when i had to pick up meds a few hours ago, it was pretty bad 

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, jcwxguy said:

hows it doing for those in omaha? 

It was enough to cover everything a bit, but now is quickly melting as it’s warmed to 34 here and there’s light rain falling.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Front has moved through and is tanking temps. Back to sleet and snow showers and everything icing back up

[Grizzcoat]

Wasn't supposed to be much here in DSM- but was still expecting more by this time-- just random flakes. Maybe over night 1/2"-- but so far this has been a bust. Better to bust on this then later in the week....

 

[gosaints]

About an inch down here.  Very impressive ratios

[BMT]

Nice steady snow here - starting to accumulate.  Radar looks good too.