Niko Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Currently @ 46F with crystal clear skies. My rain chances for Friday and into early Sat morning have disappear. Now, its just a cloudy forecast. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 It's a cool, crisp 50F as the sun rises above the horizon...beautiful morning here before the rains begin later today. Models have backed off some to more reasonable amounts. In general, 1-2" can be expected. LOT... http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Ryan Maue created more FREE model maps...click here...including the Euro! http://wx.graphics 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 JMA Weeklies over the next 2 weeks showing a La Nina signature precip anomaly...above normal Plains/Midwest/Lakes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 DMX not confident on any cooldown next week with overnight model runs being inconsistent, especially the GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 JMA suggesting Week 3-4 the N PAC jet ignites...we really need to pay attention to how this evolves later in the month... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201710.D0412_gl0.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 DMX not confident on any cooldown next week with overnight model runs being inconsistent, especially the GFS.The 00z Euro is still pretty chilly on Tuesday but it whisps away rather quickly as a ridge builds in. Very transient pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 TS Nate has formed and soon to be a Hurricane and hit parts of the southern US states. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 My area stands the chance of seeing more 80s next week. unreal! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Both GEFS/EPS are suggesting a breakdown of the Bearing Sea ridge by Day 7-10 and maybe into Week 2. If this happens, it would suggest a break down of the SE ridge and a +PNA pattern to end Oct and begin November. CFSv2 weeklies are showing this happening late month so we could be seeing the correlation evolve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 The tropical storm coming out of the GOM is an interesting system and looks to likely impact the App's early next week. App runner??? How this system interacts with the incoming trough is still a big question. The trends have been farther west with the track. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Hopefully the Harvey victims wont get affected by Nate. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 It feels nice out there, although, still muggy. Next week looks like another surge of warmth coming. Can thank the tropics for that, since we're not officially in a Nina. Though a warm autumn is a signature of a developing Nina ala 2007 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Hopefully the Harvey victims wont get affected by Nate.I'm thinking they're fine. They'll probably just get an uptick in precip chances at best. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Can thank the tropics for that, since we're not officially in a Nina. Though a warm autumn is a signature of a developing Nina ala 2007Now with Nate in the picture, it will bring that warmth in here next week with a vengeance. Ofc, I have always liked warm Autumns. They tend to give great Winters. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Is 00z Euro not showing up for anyone else? 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 The tropical storm coming out of the GOM is an interesting system and looks to likely impact the App's early next week. App runner??? How this system interacts with the incoming trough is still a big question. The trends have been farther west with the track. Yeah, this was mentioned on Amwx as well, even though CPC 3-7 day hazards as of yesterday still has the rain streaks well east of your maps. Another map caught my attention this morning: Couldn't help but notice that the chunk of cold front precip was for the most part a fail yesterday do in part to the retarded timing of development along the front of a secondary SLP. Well, low and behold, LOOK where it did finally develop and now is delivering the rainy goods! This is a size-able concern of mine for the upcoming cold season with Marshall being just north of the active track snow swath. Not saying mby is left out of every party, but it could be the difference between a good year, and a stellar year. 76-77 was a bit that way with the cold overwhelming and pushing the storms south of MI. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 I'm thinking they're fine. They'll probably just get an uptick in precip chances at best.That will be great! They are still trying to get life back to normal there. Last thing they need is Nate. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Is 00z Euro not showing up for anyone else? LOL, been last Dec since the Euro delivered for SMI. Ofc it's a no-show Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Woke up to loud thunder and a 10 minute downpour this morning. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 That will be great! They are still trying to get life back to normal there. Last thing they need is Nate. Nothing like PR though. They're living a 3rd world existence with 90% of the island without electricity, scant water and food. Bad bad situation down there. Hopefully they're survivor types. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Nothing like PR though. They're living a 3rd world existence with 90% of the island without electricity, scant water and food. Bad bad situation down there. Hopefully they're survivor types. PR is totally10x more in a disaster zone. Hope for the best for those people. President Trump visited the area just days ago. I am hoping he provided some needed help (food, water, electricity and much more). It will take a long time to recover down there as well as the Harvey victims. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Holy cow was it absolutely pouring this morning! You couldn't see anything for 30 minutes it was raining so hard. We picked up an inch of rain in less than an hour. My wife was on her way to work this morning in the rain and must have just missed an accident. She seen a shoe on the road and a semi parked on her side of the road. Well, I'm an EMT and while I was at school the page went out that there was a fatality in that accident. Thank goodness my wife wasn't involved but she is pretty shook up that's for sure. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Holy cow was it absolutely pouring this morning! You couldn't see anything for 30 minutes it was raining so hard. We picked up an inch of rain in less than an hour. My wife was on her way to work this morning in the rain and must have just missed an accident. She seen a shoe on the road and a semi parked on her side of the road. Well, I'm an EMT and while I was at school the page went out that there was a fatality in that accident. Thank goodness my wife wasn't involved but she is pretty shook up that's for sure.Glad she is safe Gabel! Sounds like the atmosphere is juiced up which I'm looking forward to out here. So desperate to see much needed precip and soak the vegetation. You guys have been doing good lately. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Emptied .97" out of my rain gauge last night before this event started. I don't remember when that was from except sometime earlier this week. That's on top of the 1.7" from last week and now 2-3" we're getting next. Been raining steady all morning. Dreary day to go along with my mood on my 40th birthday today God I'm oldHappy 40th! Age is just a number...don't sweat it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Happy 40th! Age is just a number...don't sweat it! ^^^ what he said 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Looking more and more like SON wants to be a run-away heat train. So much for us being due a colder autumn. That's going up in smoke-n-fire fast! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Looking more and more like SON wants to be a run-away heat train. So much for us being due a colder autumn. That's going up in smoke-n-fire fast! I don't thing it'll be a constant warmth like last Fall though. More like a Fall with swings which happen to average out to above normal. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Thinking we might get the shaft when all is said and done here with the rain. Heaviest looks to remain SE of here near KS/MO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Hey buddy, 12z GFS in lala land...say what?! I know right?? Nonetheless, fact is sometimes stranger than fiction (15 day model maps, lol). They were showing how FWA was in the 70's a few days before, and a few days after the infamous 6-10" freak snowstorm of almost the same date in '89 This could fall into Niko's "Nevva say nevva" category Oh, and where I was living in Genesee Cnty, I remember stepping out for work that morning and being shocked, like we'd time-warped 2 months forward to Dec! Solid snow falling on an east wind like the middle of winter only got about 2-3" but it's the most I've experienced at mby(s) in Oct. Not even in NMI (lake shadow) did I get big snow before Nov 1st. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Glad she is safe Gabel! Sad situation though. Bad thing about inclement weather is the danger that can come with it. Happy bday NEJeremy! Ill be 41 next month. Yup its just a number! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Thinking we might get the shaft when all is said and done here with the rain. Heaviest looks to remain SE of here near KS/MO.We're not supposed to get much rain anyway. Down near Falls City approaching MO should cash in. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 The models have backed off a bit on our rain event, but still suggest 1.5-2.0". Next week's cold shot is fading on the models. I don't want to have to cover my plants, so I'm fine with that. Once the hummingbirds are gone after mid-month, I don't care how cold it gets. Happy B-day. I turn 43 on Tuesday. Time sure flies. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Ryan Maue is loading more stuff on the Euro maps, now including precip...I smell a competition between WxBell and Weather.US... Edit: Might not need to subscribe to WxBell anymore if he continues to provide more free stuff 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Ryan Maue is loading more stuff on the Euro maps, now including precip...I smell a competition between WxBell and Weather.US... Edit: Might not need to subscribe to WxBell anymore if he continues to provide more free stuff Maue tweeted that WxBell cut off access to his maps when he left, so he will have to re-build them for weather.us / wx.graphics. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Maue tweeted that WxBell cut off access to his maps when he left, so he will have to re-build them for weather.us / wx.graphics.Oh wow, that doesn't sound to nice of them I'd say...a little game playing tactics??? I smell revenge... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Meantime, 12z GEFS starting to hint at the trough (16th-21st) based on the East Asian theory...northern plains cool of first before it swings through. Early snows up there may be on the table from what I'm seeing. Before then, a puff of very warm air (13-th-15th) on the table as the yo-yo pattern continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 5, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Over the last few GEFS runs, another CO low showing up around the 15th and fits the pattern....looks active and wetter into Week 2.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 5, 2017 Report Share Posted October 5, 2017 Kind of a bummer that trough for next week is disappearing. Hopefully the one showing up mid month pans out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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