October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

The clown range 12z GFS does bifurcate the PV after the initial wave-1 response. Obviously, this is not worth looking at right now, however, it is what you'd look for to precede/coincide with a midwinter Arctic blast in the NW US:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/8CBDF779-EC70-4858-B2C2-F032530B4A13_zpsyzwf6jnn.png

[BLI snowman]

12z GFS shows us hitting 70 twice this week (Tuesday and Thursday), with 65+ highs through the end of the month.

 

Shaping up to be one of the warmest last weeks of October on record.

 

It's actually not that crazy, we've gone a long time without doing it but in the cold-January past of our climate we often saw sustained 65+ ridge stuff in late October.

[Jesse]

It's actually not that crazy, we've gone a long time without doing it but in the cold-January past of our climate we often saw sustained 65+ ridge stuff in late October.

 

That's a good point. I have definitely noticed a lot of 50+ year old analogs to the upcoming pattern (1962, 1954, 1949 to name a few).

[Phil]

January PNA tells the tale. Very different circulation today when compared to the middle 20th century.

 

It's been ~ 65-70 years since the positive trend began. Might be due for a change!

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FB218495-42A7-4C9E-A5D0-11B21BF3CED8_zpsacorq3sp.png

[Jesse]

To me the most anomalous warm event of this year so far was the stretch of warm minimums from September 2-9, a period that saw an average minimum of 63.75. PDX broke their previous record warm September minimum on four consecutive days (5th-8th).

 

I have to wonder if part of that had something to do with a perfect storm of thick wildfire smoke trapping a relatively humid airmass close to the surface.

[Deweydog]

To me the most anomalous warm event of this year so far was the stretch of warm minimums from September 2-9, a period that saw an average minimum of 63.75. PDX broke their previous record warm September minimum on four consecutive days (5th-8th).

 

I have to wonder if part of that had something to do with a perfect storm of thick wildfire smoke trapping a relatively humid airmass close to the surface.

The cooler daytime air mass helped keep things from turning over each afternoon, kept mixing limited. We just stewed in our own juices.

 

#sweattilyoubleed!

[Phil]

Kind of OT for this thread, but over the last decade, we have made some progress in returning to a more LIA-esque warm season circulation. The first sign of the tropics shifting away from their "heat absorption" state of the last 100+ years.

 

This has been reflected in the cooler Arctic summers during recent years.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1CBF8C5A-E520-4669-B7BC-8D9363207E7E_zpsnneme9cz.png

[Phil]

The WPAC warm pool has retracted significantly over the last several weeks.

 

 

This would be consistent with the historical response to solar minimum, which does operate on a 2-3 year lag. Note the decreasing amplitude, as the solar cycle has weakened in recent years.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7468A9FD-9833-4743-95E4-57B4105BC140_zpsaofo4xxr.jpg

 

When it retracts far enough, the system attempts to compensates with an El Niño to maintain WPAC ventilation, which typically occurs at/just after solar minimum.

 

One can also see that expanded warm-pool/solar max Niños are obtained very differently, and serve a very different purpose compared to those @ solar minimum.

[Deweydog]

Does this mean there will be snow with the Arctic front?

[Phil]

Does this mean there will be snow with the Arctic front?

Cultivar of 1949-50 and 1879-80.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Does this mean there will be snow with the Arctic front?

Probly at some point this fall/winter. The odds just favor it so heavily at the very least 1 time. I just hope the Willamette Valley gets in on the action again.

[TT-SEA]

Good comparison of fall color with last year... both pics taken at the same time on the same day.

 

2016:

 

 

2017:

 

http://oi66.tinypic.com/15hxvvb.jpg

[Deweydog]

Good comparison of fall color with last year... both pics taken at the same time on the same day.

 

2016:

http://oi64.tinypic.com/xldunr.jpg

 

 

2017:

 

http://oi66.tinypic.com/15hxvvb.jpg

Jessim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Jesse]

Jessim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Don’t react to trolling posts hidden subtly beneath the guise of providing “information”. It destroys the very fabric of this forum.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I keep hearing that these warm autumns/Indian summers are a decent omen for a cold winter here. Obviously not a guarantee but is that the case more often than not?

[Jesse]

I keep hearing that these warm autumns/Indian summers are a decent omen for a cold winter here. Obviously not a guarantee but is that the case more often than not?

Aside from the first ten days of September, this has not been a warm autumn.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Don’t react to trolling posts hidden subtly beneath the guise of providing “information”. It destroys the very fabric of this forum.

 

No... its part of the discussion about fall color being delayed this year.   Its a good comparison.

[wx_statman]

Jessim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

That was actually intended for Jimesse. 

[TT-SEA]

That was actually intended for Jimesse. 

 

No... it was for Jesse.   I should have just quoted the post where he talked about the trees trying to get all the photosynthesis possible given the late start.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

A perfect fall day here, sunny clean air interrupted by quick moving squalls. Life is slowly returning:

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Just had some hail with that last cell...

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Just had some hail with that last cell...

 

 

Would have likely been snow or at least graupel at this time last year.

[Jesse]

Would have likely been snow or at least graupel at this time last year.

I’m pretty surprised his grass hasn’t turned any brilliant shades of yellow/orange for the season yet. Still stubbornly green.

 

#notagoodsign

 

#curbyourjimthusiasm

[TT-SEA]

I’m pretty surprised his grass hasn’t turned any brilliant shades of yellow/orange for the season yet. Still stubbornly green.

 

#notagoodsign

 

#curbyourjimthusiasm

 

 

I have not said one word about Jim's enthusiasm.   I pretty much agree with him.    And I have said that as well.  

[TT-SEA]

Good comparison of image color temperature settings, more like.  The 2016 image is much warmer than the 2017 one, making the foliage look much yellower.

 

Ah, never mind -- seems I'm way behind as usual!

 

Go to the space needle site and toggle back and forth between 2016 and 2017... its clearly more green this year.    And it means absolutely nothing for the winter or about how troughy and chilly its been this year.

 

I have repeatedly said that we have had deep and chilly troughs this fall starting in the middle of September.   Its not the temperature causing the delayed fall color... it was the late spring in my opinion.

[Jesse]

Go to the space needle site and toggle back and forth between 2016 and 2017... its clearly more green this year. And it means absolutely nothing for the winter or about how troughy and chilly its been this year.

 

I have repeatedly said that we have had deep and chilly troughs this fall starting in the middle of September. Its not the temperature causing the delayed fall color... it was the late spring in my opinion.

It really doesn’t matter that much, dude. And given people’s reactions in the past it’s hard to imagine how you would expect it to come off like anything other than you have an axe to grind. Just like the numerous screenshots of a smoke choked Flathead Lake. You hold onto these little disagreements with people and continually cherrypick information to push your case well after the argument has expired or even been settled. It’s mostly just annoying.

[TT-SEA]

It really doesn’t matter that much, dude. And given people’s reactions in the past it’s hard to imagine how you would expect it to come off like anything other than you have an axe to grind. Just like the numerous screenshots of a smoke chocked Flathead Lake. You hold onto these little disagreements with people and continually cherrypick information to push your case well after the argument has expired or even been settled. It’s mostly just annoying.

 

It was not even an argument.   We were in agreement.   I was looking at the space needle cam and thought it was interesting.  

[Jesse]

It was not even an argument.   We were in agreement.   I was looking at the space needle cam and thought it was interesting.  

 

I said it had been settled. Its not a big deal. Just classic Tim. Don't act surprised when you get some flack for it.

[Deweydog]

It was a pretty interesting comparison. Like Jesse, you should have used an intermediary. Yet another similarity between you two lovebirds!

[TT-SEA]

It was a pretty interesting comparison. Like Jesse, you should have used an intermediary. Yet another similarity between you two lovebirds!

 

Good point.

[Jesse]

It was a pretty interesting comparison. Like Jesse, you should have used an intermediary. Yet another similarity between you two lovebirds!

You were the one who immediately replied as if it was for me and Jim. Talk about going out of your way to get something started. 

 

And thank you for showing me that you absolutely DO NOT respect my wishes.

[Jesse]

I think I just need to stop falling for the bait...

 

And even if I did, I actually think Tim and I are capable of working things out just fine. It's when others start piling it on that things get stupid.

[Deweydog]

Good point.

Problem is, I don't think anyone else would have thought to look.

 

The leaves will fall off eventually. Probably more a result of copious amounts of accumulating snowfall.

[TT-SEA]

I think I just need to stop falling for the bait...

 

And even if I did, I actually think Tim and I are capable or working things out just fine. It's when others start piling it on that things get stupid.

 

No doubt... it snowballs on here.   

 

I did not even think we were arguing about the fall color.   I was thinking you would agree and find it interesting.   It was only intended for you based on our earlier discussion.

[Jesse]

No doubt... it snowballs on here.   

 

I did not even think we were arguing about the fall color.   I was thinking you would agree and find it interesting.   It was only intended for you based on our earlier discussion.

 

Matt is probably the single biggest instigator this forum has. Things rarely get pegged on him though since he mostly sits on the sidelines and eggs on/exacerbates existing or ongoing arguments. Never lights the spark but usually provides copious amounts of kerosene.

 

It makes sense since he has openly admitted that he finds it most entertaining when this place is as acrimonious as possible.

[Deweydog]

Matt is probably the single biggest instigator this forum has. Things rarely get pegged on him though since he mostly sits on the sidelines and eggs on/exacerbates existing or ongoing arguments. Never lights the spark but usually provides copious amounts of kerosene.

 

It makes sense since he has openly admitted that he finds it most entertaining when this place is as acrimonious as possible.

So I caused you to lose your on Tim?

 

I guess I'm next...

[Jesse]

So I caused you to lose your s**t on Tim?

 

I guess I'm next...

 

Lose my s**t?

 

I think that's a bit of an exaggeration.

[Deweydog]

Lose my s**t?

 

I think that's a bit of an exaggeration.

 

Pot, kettle.   

[Jesse]

Pot, kettle.   

 

Right back at you bro.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is like a wonderful message board version of a sitcom.