October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Front Ranger]

I don't generally. Try my best to ignore you most of the time, but there are some stinkers that just beg to be pointed out.

 

It was a total misread on your part. Nothing new. 

[Front Ranger]

It definitely looks like one of the driest last weeks of October in quite awhile.

[Jesse]

It was a total misread on your part. Nothing new. 

 

And the several other active posters who have accused you doing the same thing multiple times, of course.

[wx_statman]

Overused analog but the progression from a chilly mid-month to a ridgy end of the month is sort of 1949-ish.

 

True, but it's also 1966-ish. That -ENSO winter didn't work out as well. 

[TT-SEA]

It was a total misread on your part. Nothing new. 

 

I understand your point.   It could be ridgy all month with a 2-day fire hose and it could end up way wetter than normal.   Maybe like 2003?    

[Front Ranger]

And the several other active posters who have accused you doing the same thing multiple times, of course.

 

Yes, you're not the only one who takes things too personal sometimes, nurses minor grievances, and generally gets butt hurt.

 

You all should start a club!

[Jesse]

12z EURO is fully onboard the warm and ridgy train. Whatever Phil was seeing a week or so ago that lead him to think that the ridge would build directly over us rather than offshore seems to have been correct.

[Front Ranger]

I understand your point.   It could be ridgy all month with a 2-day fire hose and it could end up way wetter than normal.   Maybe like 2003?    

 

Definitely some similarities there. Although that month was much warmer than this one will end up.

[Jesse]

Definitely some similarities there. Although that month was much warmer than this one will end up.

 

It would be a pretty big stretch to compare this month to 2003. That was a legitimately warm, ridgy month with a relatively short firehose period and then an epic cold shot at the end.

[wx_statman]

Yes, you're not the only one who takes things too personal sometimes, nurses minor grievances, and generally gets butt hurt.

 

You all should start a club!

 

Suppress the sociopath in you. Try. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Just looking back at the record warmth from last November. Really impressive stuff, especially considering the highest readings occurred in the 2nd week of the month. 

 

Some monthly records in WA, all of these set on the 8th & 9th:

 

75 at Bellingham 3SSW (68 on 11/7/1999, records since 1985)

75 at Packwood (75 on 11/1/1954)

74 at Everett (74 on 11/2/1981)

72 at Clearbrook (69 on 11/3/1908 & 11/2/1949)

71 at Blaine (66 on 11/3/1908)

71 at Anacortes (69 on 11/1/1926)

 

A couple impressive records in OR as well:

 

77 at Cottage Grove on the 5th (76 on 11/3/1980)

74 at Summer Lake on the 8th & 9th (74 on 11/6/2012)

 

-The highest reading in the PNW was 78 at Dayville on the 9th, which just missed their monthly record of 79 on 11/8/2012. 

 

-Latest 70 at SEA on the 8th, previously on 11/4/1949 and 11/4/1980

-2nd latest 70 in downtown Portland on the 10th, behind 11/13/1999.

 

I was almost sure last November would go down as a great one in my area (it actually WAS) but only ranked 7th warmest. It's pretty wild but despite my 4000+ feet elevation I can have just as many warm Falls as I can cool ones.

[Front Ranger]

Suppress the sociopath in you. Try. 

 

 

What is your point? You can think whatever you want about me, dude. But you can't deny one thing: I'm equal opportunity. I don't play favorites. Which is why I've gotten into internet fisticuffs at some point with just about everyone here. And I don't hold that against anyone. That's a dumb way to go through life, especially with mostly meaningless online stuff.

 

I don't care, I keep posting here until I get bored. That's why I took couple hiatuses. Some of you care about this stuff a whole lot more than me. I guess that makes you sociopaths. 

[Front Ranger]

It would be a pretty big stretch to compare this month to 2003. That was a legitimately warm, ridgy month with a relatively short firehose period and then an epic cold shot at the end.

 

Indeed. I did say that month was quite a bit warmer than this one. I also said there were some similarities, which would include the relatively short firehose period and some mega-ridging.

[wx_statman]

I was almost sure last November would go down as a great one in my area (it actually WAS) but only ranked 7th warmest. It's pretty wild but despite my 4000+ feet elevation I can have just as many warm Falls as I can cool ones.

 

We ended up setting the record for warmest November at PDX. Beat the 1995 record by 0.6F. 

[wx_statman]

 

What is your point? You can think whatever you want about me, dude. But you can't deny one thing: I'm equal opportunity. I don't play favorites. Which is why I've gotten into internet fisticuffs at some point with just about everyone here. And I don't hold that against anyone. That's a dumb way to go through life, especially with mostly meaningless online stuff.

 

I don't care, I keep posting here until I get bored. That's why I took couple hiatuses. Some of you care about this stuff a whole lot more than me. I guess that makes you sociopaths. 

 

You're not making sense. 

[Front Ranger]

You're not making sense. 

 

It makes perfect sense in the context of previous conversations.

 

You're being lame. This is not what this thread is for. Move on.

[wx_statman]

It makes perfect sense in the context of previous conversations.

 

You're being lame. This is not what this thread is for. Move on.

 

Try a little self-reflection once in a while. I'm serious. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows 70 at PDX on Tuesday.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF shows 70 at PDX on Tuesday.

 

Looks like there will be other shots at 70 toward next weekend too.

[Jesse]

Try a little self-reflection once in a while. I'm serious. 

 

Yeah. If multiple people with pretty different personalities and from different walks of life are all saying the same thing about you, it is probably at least reason for pause. I have been on the receiving end of that here as well, and I have tried to take some of the criticism as an opportunity for self improvement.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like there will be other shots at 70 toward next weekend too.

 

ECMWF does not show it though... it shows low to mid 60s and sunny on Saturday around the Portland area and then marine layer (OLM southward) on Sunday and only 56 down there.    

[Jesse]

ECMWF does not show it though... it shows low to mid 60s and sunny on Saturday around the Portland area and then marine layer (OLM southward) on Sunday and only 56 down there.

I guess it’s possible that we start seeing things getting mitigated by inversions at some point, with such stable ridging this late in the season.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Gah, rain shadow   

[BLI snowman]

Gah, rain shadow 

 

Brutal. Just... brutal.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I guess it’s possible that we start seeing things getting mitigated by inversions at some point, with such stable ridging this late in the season.

 

As much as I hate fall ridging, early November is probably the best time of year to get it over with. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Winds tonight up to 40 could cause some power outages

[Front Ranger]

Try a little self-reflection once in a while. I'm serious. 

 

I'm sure you are serious. Who says I haven't? And why do you care so much if I do? 

 

Maybe try not taking the little things so personal and holding silly grudges? Since we're dispensing with life advice...

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the warmer 500mb pattern is going to come just a little sooner than I had hoped.  I would have liked to have seen one more cold shot with that clipper in a few days.  Other than that a pretty textbook progression after a few deep / cold troughs in a cold ENSO October.  We might still manage to get some cold nights and a couple of chilly inversion type days the final week of the month.

 

It is pretty interesting how we still avoid much low pressure over the NE Pacific even when the ridge is so far east.

[wx_statman]

I'm sure you are serious. Who says I haven't? And why do you care so much if I do? 

 

Maybe try not taking the little things so personal and holding silly grudges? Since we're dispensing with life advice...

 

Criticism does not equal "silly grudge." You're just being condescending. 

[snow_wizard]

As much as I hate fall ridging, early November is probably the best time of year to get it over with. 

 

No doubt.  It worked out really well in 1949 at least.

[Deweydog]

48 at PDX at 1pm with moderate rain on 10-21. If this were December this would be............................ a cold rain.

[Front Ranger]

Criticism does not equal "silly grudge." You're just being condescending. 

 

What makes your criticism valid and mine "condescending"?  I could say you're being condescending just as easily. Round and round we go. It's dumb. Just move on.

[Phil]

12z EURO is fully onboard the warm and ridgy train. Whatever Phil was seeing a week or so ago that lead him to think that the ridge would build directly over us rather than offshore seems to have been correct.

I'm relieved that it looks to have been a mishandling of the wavetrains by guidance, rather than an epic mistake on my part.

 

Though, I'm not counting my chickens before they hatch. June was only 18 weeks ago.

[wx_statman]

What makes your criticism valid and mine "condescending"?  I could say you're being condescending just as easily. Round and round we go. It's dumb. Just move on.

 

I'll let you think about it. And yeah, you can move on.

[TT-SEA]

My son is heading up to Snoqualmie Pass with his friends to play in the snow... not bad considering this is a fire hose situation.   Of course that is because there is still offshore flow up there.  

 

[Front Ranger]

I'm relieved that it looks to have been a mishandling of the wavetrains by guidance, rather than an epic mistake on my part.

 

Though, I'm not counting my chickens before they hatch. June was only 18 weeks ago.

 

Honest question: didn't you say the second half of this month was going to be dominated by GOA troughing?

 

You say a lot of things at different times, and it can be hard to keep track of. I'm sure some people will jump on this as me being overly critical of you or whatever, but that's not it. I just honestly have trouble keeping track of everything you say, and others have expressed this previously too. It would probably help if you posted your thoughts/forecasts in one specific thread. Just a suggestion.

[Front Ranger]

I'll let you think about it. And yeah, you can move on.

 

Thanks, buddy!

[Deweydog]

Honest question: didn't you say the second half of this month was going to be dominated by GOA troughing?

 

You say a lot of things at different times, and it can be hard to keep track of. I'm sure some people will jump on this as me being overly critical of you or whatever, but that's not it. I just honestly have trouble keeping track of everything you say, and others have expressed this previously too. It would probably help if you posted your thoughts/forecasts in one specific thread. Just a suggestion.

Good lord...

[crf450ish]

This is the only place on this forum where regular bickering and arguing occurs, it seems. I frequent the Great Lakes forum and Atlantic coast as well.....very very rare to see bickering on such a personal level there. Are some members here old high school or college enemies or something? Seems like it, lol. 

[Kayla]

Honest question: didn't you say the second half of this month was going to be dominated by GOA troughing?

 

You say a lot of things at different times, and it can be hard to keep track of. I'm sure some people will jump on this as me being overly critical of you or whatever, but that's not it. I just honestly have trouble keeping track of everything you say, and others have expressed this previously too. It would probably help if you posted your thoughts/forecasts in one specific thread. Just a suggestion.

 

Chilly, firehose, ridge was basically his forecast. Pretty accurate.