December Weather In the PNW

[Deweydog]

Freezing frog advisory!

 

Jackprot!!!

[TT-SEA]

The WRF is surprisingly close to the GEM on Christmas Eve.

 

Surface low tracking right over Seattle... from Seattle northward it never warms up that day.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[HighlandExperience]

The WRF is surprisingly close to the GEM on Christmas Eve.

 

Surface low tracking right over Seattle... from Seattle northward it never warms up that day.

 

Gem is really leading the way in this

[MossMan]

The WRF is surprisingly close to the GEM on Christmas Eve.

 

Surface low tracking right over Seattle... from Seattle northward it never warms up that day.

Merry Christmas to all (Seattle north) and to all a good night!

[TT-SEA]

snow.png

 

I waiting for that frame to update!   Beat me to it.  

 

I could get buried here.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The WRF is surprisingly close to the GEM on Christmas Eve.

 

Surface low tracking right over Seattle... from Seattle northward it never warms up that day.  

 

Looks slightly south of where the last low came ashore, but with more cold air to tap into this time around.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not sure what's going on, or what it means, but the last time my butt itched like this was December 1983 Possible analog?

[Winterdog]

Not sure what's going on, or what it means, but the last time my butt itched like this was December 1983 Possible analog?

Possible anal log?  You meant that pun didn't you?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not sure what's going on, or what it means, but the last time my butt itched like this was December 1983 Possible analog?

Maybe you just need to take a crap.

[Deweydog]

Not sure what's going on, or what it means, but the last time my butt itched like this was December 1983 Possible analog?

Dry butt crack skin = dry Arctic front

 

Analog esta no bueno.

[Gradient Keeper]

Maybe you just need to take a crap.

That's too reasonable.... 00z ECMWF in 10 minutes!

[Gradient Keeper]

Dry butt crack skin = dry Arctic front

 

Analog esta no bueno.

That makes perfect sense. 12z GFS in 9 hours 49 minutes

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF run on Sunday morning will be really telling!  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

December 1983, I remember it all too well.  Big arctic outbreak, Seahawks made the playoffs for the first time ever, and I went to the game where they clinched a playoff birth.  And there was a major snowstorm predicted for Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning.  I was living in Anacortes at the time.  First they said 6-8 inches, it was a winter storm warning, then down to 4-6 inches.  Still a really exciting forecast.   I waited for the snow to start falling Christmas Eve night, and then I heard it.  Santa and his reindeer on the roof?  I wish.  I heard the sound of rain on the roof.  Turned the weather radio back on and the forecast has changed from snow to rain.  Sucks any time it happens, but on Christmas Eve just before bed time, with visions of waking up to snow falling and a blanket of snow on the ground?  Doesn't get much worse than that from a weenie point of view.

[Perturbed Member]

The WRF is actually showing snow on Sunday morning... waiting to see the next few frames on the extended page.

 

 

 

I really have trouble trusting the WRF much these days. It showed Trace - 1 inch in PDX only a day before the big Jan 10 2017 snowstorm there. It also showed some snow in PDX a week or two ago when it was quite clear there was no way that was going to verify. Unfortunate that a model can issue such wacky forecasts in 2017. Unless the euro is on board, I'm usually skeptical. Admittedly, all the models have been frustratingly inconsistent for the past week.

 

I sure do hope the WRF is right about Saturday though.  

[TT-SEA]

December 1983, I remember it all too well.  Big arctic outbreak, Seahawks made the playoffs for the first time ever, and I went to the game where they clinched a playoff birth.  And there was a major snowstorm predicted for Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning.  I was living in Anacortes at the time.  First they said 6-8 inches, it was a winter storm warning, then down to 4-6 inches.  Still a really exciting forecast.   I waited for the snow to start falling Christmas Eve night, and then I heard it.  Santa and his reindeer on the roof?  I wish.  I heard the sound of rain on the roof.  Turned the weather radio back on and the forecast has changed from snow to rain.  Sucks any time it happens, but on Christmas Eve just before bed time, with visions of waking up to snow falling and a blanket of snow on the ground?  Doesn't get much worse than that from a weenie point of view.

 

I need to go back and look up the map for 12/24/83.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

I was able to get some security camera footage from inside the NWS after they looked at tonights model runs. They seem a little panicked and not sure what to do. Poor folks...

 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I was able to get some security camera footage from inside the NWS after looking at tonights model runs. They seem a little panicked and not sure what to door. Poor folks...

 

 

4MYKR_s-200x150.gif

Saw that, one poor guy was trying to decide which of the models to believe

[TT-SEA]

Wacky pattern on 12/24/83!  

 

 

 

At my house in the Twin Cities... the high was -10 and the low was -25 and there was 20 inches of snow on the ground.   

[VancouverIslandSouth]

December 1983, I remember it all too well.  Big arctic outbreak, Seahawks made the playoffs for the first time ever, and I went to the game where they clinched a playoff birth.  And there was a major snowstorm predicted for Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning.  I was living in Anacortes at the time.  First they said 6-8 inches, it was a winter storm warning, then down to 4-6 inches.  Still a really exciting forecast.   I waited for the snow to start falling Christmas Eve night, and then I heard it.  Santa and his reindeer on the roof?  I wish.  I heard the sound of rain on the roof.  Turned the weather radio back on and the forecast has changed from snow to rain.  Sucks any time it happens, but on Christmas Eve just before bed time, with visions of waking up to snow falling and a blanket of snow on the ground?  Doesn't get much worse than that from a weenie point of view.

 

Kind of like the WRF forecasts and eventual bust this area just endured. Went from 5-8" then up to 14-16", back to 5-8" only 12 hours out. Other models were more conservative but still had at least 2". Ended without so much as a trace. We've come a long way in the past 34 years, but we're still not above last minute snow busts.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

And this guy was having a breakdown

 

[Deweydog]

I need to go back and look up the map for 12/24/83.

The transition event in 1983 was a ridiculously complicated one. That outbreak is revered for good reason but I imagine models would **** ball that now just as much as in 1983. Lots of warn out weenies after that couple weeks.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Wacky pattern on 12/24/83!  

 

 

 

At my house in the Twin Cities... the high was -10 and the low was -25 and there was 20 inches of snow on the ground.   

I don't know what went "wrong" that night, perhaps the storm went north and we ended up in warm Southern sector, like January 2011, when they had called for a huge snowstorm, only to have it go north.  At least then we knew about the bust a few days in advance.  

[TT-SEA]

The transition event in 1983 was a ridiculously complicated one. That outbreak is revered for good reason but I imagine models would **** ball that now just as much as in 1983. Lots of warn out weenies after that couple weeks.

 

Looks like it was a weak transition out here in the Snoqualmie Valley... it was either side of 40 for a few days.  

 

But then it was 62/53 on 1/3/84 and 64/45 the next day.  

[MossMan]

Wacky pattern on 12/24/83!

 

 

 

At my house in the Twin Cities... the high was -10 and the low was -25 and there was 20 inches of snow on the ground.

Looked like we got...penetrated...shafted...

That’s all the penis jokes I have for tonight...I’m out.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am not liking the notch direction on the EURO so far... micro notch's may not mean much though -- so far things are similar to the previous run.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z ECMWF is running colder than the GFS over the next 48 hours. Looks similar to the GEM.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Remember when we had to go outside every 10 minutes to see if the clouds were coming?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Remember when we had to go outside every 10 minutes to see if the clouds were coming?

I miss those days... I used to see if I could smell snow and I would strain to look in every nearest street light to see if I could see flakes. Good ol' days

[TT-SEA]

Total snow from the Friday into Saturday morning system...

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 0z ECMWF is running colder than the GFS over the next 48 hours. Looks similar to the GEM.

 

 

 

Overall the Euro looks a bit warmer with a more eastward push compared to the previous EURO run. Not horrible but not better either.

[luvssnow_spokane]

EURO not improved over its previous run ...

 

TONIGHT

 

 

PREVIOUS

 

[Blizzard777]

Current conditions.....looks like Forks is generating it's own Arctic bubble

[HighlandExperience]

I’m scared for Christmas

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Always know the GFS operational is an outlier when no one mentions the ensembles!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 27 now. 

[Blizzard777]

Current conditions.....looks like Forks is generating it's own Arctic bubble

That’s interesting....30 degrees on my weather machine yet the sticker has 35.....wunderground delay of game?

[TT-SEA]

850s on the 00z ECMWF at 4PM on Christmas Eve are colder than the GFS but warmer than the GEM.

 

Edit: Nevermind. Warmer than both. Shameful wishcaster.

 

 

On the surface map... the 00Z ECMWF is slightly cooler at the 850mb level and way cooler at the 925mb level at 4 p.m. on Christmas Eve compared to the 12Z run. 

 

Precip is up to Pierce County at that time.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Meh... No white Christmas on the EURO? I do not have access to precip maps and 925's