December Weather In the PNW

[Deweydog]

Last Sunday 12z GFS redux!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

You have to like this! This begins coming together in the very believable range too.

Looking great! The models are going to start nailing this down the next couple of days.

[TT-SEA]

Last Sunday 12z GFS redux!!!

 

Just crazy... the block that was originally shown gets completely crushed immediately but we still end up with a great pattern a couple days later anyways.  

[snow_wizard]

The GEM is kind of on the same track as the GFS.  Just a bit further east with the blocking.  The GFS is very cold.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Late day tomorrow looks primed for a good shot of Strait-effect snow between Nanaimo - Qualicum. Stalled heavy snowshowers of that nature can dump as much as a foot in favored locations.

[TT-SEA]

We need the GEM to be right with the Christmas Eve snowstorm and then the GFS to be right with all the cold air for next week.   Perfect compromise!  

[HighlandExperience]

Amazing thing about the GEM track is that it never turns to rain up here... it snows until it moves out and then cold air comes in.

Eager to see what euro shows this weekend

[TT-SEA]

Eager to see what euro shows this weekend

 

Last night the ECMWF was very snowy for Christmas Eve while the GFS was dry.

 

The 12Z ECMWF was totally dry for Christmas Eve and now the GFS shows rain and the GEM shows a snowstorm.     What will the 00Z ECMWF show?    Will it matter?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point these model runs are almost meaningless to me...But I can't look away...

[MossMan]

Last Sunday 12z GFS redux!!!

I remember it like it was yesterday...sitting at the tire shop getting tires on my wife’s car and riding the good times with everyone on the forum...yeah those were the days.

[Gradient Keeper]

You have to like this!  This begins coming together in the very believable range too.

Exactly. Pattern develops after 4 day and really setting up nice at day 5-6. Timing has really moved ahead. This is what I've said to look for the past 2 days. I expect at the least decent improvements on Ensembles, if not quite noticeable ones.

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 10 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM is kind of on the same track as the GFS.  Just a bit further east with the blocking.  The GFS is very cold.

 

Yeah the GEM is like solidly below average, the GFS way below average.... Or something along those lines. If we can get a snow covered basin then next week could be very cold down here.

[snow_wizard]

The GEM shows major height rises out around 160 or so late in the run.  The major theme is blocking, blocking, blocking.

[Parksvillewx]

Late day tomorrow looks primed for a good shot of Strait-effect snow between Nanaimo - Qualicum. Stalled heavy snowshowers of that nature can dump as much as a foot in favored locations.

 

I hope you're right. It's definitely been a few years since we've had heavy strait effect up here.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I don't remember seeing so much inconsistency in the believable range, not just one model, but every model, run-to-run, each model inconsistent with itself and the other models.   Might as well roll a dice the way these models have been.  

[MossMan]

I don't remember seeing so much inconsistency in the believable range, not just one model, but every model, run-to-run, each model inconsistent with itself and the other models. Might as well roll a dice the way these models have been.

Yeah there have been model disagreements before but I never remember anything like this.

[Guest El nina]

Anyone ever get really tired of dry cold to the point where you're outside breathing really heavy trying to create your own snow cloud then hyperventilate and pass out?

[Deweydog]

Anyone ever get really tired of dry cold to the point where you're outside breathing really heavy trying to create your own snow cloud then hyperventilate and pass out?

No.

[Deweydog]

That Pepto-blob may be stuck in Canada until opening day.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Already 24 here. Cold night ahead.

[Deweydog]

Major Nor'easter out beyond 300 hours. A nice gift for Phil for bringing us the preceding Arctic air mass?

[wx_statman]

Some huge snowfall totals in N. Idaho yesterday into this morning. 12.6" in Bonners Ferry and 12" in Sandpoint, where they had 13k power outages. Up to 21" in Boundary County per NWS storm reports.

[MossMan]

Major Nor'easter out beyond 300 hours. A nice gift for Phil for bringing us the preceding Arctic air mass?

Thanks Phil!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I hope you're right. It's definitely been a few years since we've had heavy strait effect up here.

 

It seemed like there was quite a bit last year, but I guess no single heavy events. I think chances are still pretty low for a heavy event, but it's always a remote possibility in this setup.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Some huge snowfall totals in N. Idaho yesterday into this morning. 12.6" in Bonners Ferry and 12" in Sandpoint, where they had 13k power outages. Up to 21" in Boundary County per NWS storm reports.

12.6 for bonners ferry is huge. They dont ever get much at once like that.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GFS big step in the right direction tonight. Not a full blown Arctic blast but it's close. Even colder air just slips to the east of us.

 

[Front Ranger]

Thanks Phil!

When things go right, thank Phil.

 

When they go wrong, blame Jesse.

 

These are the rules of the forum.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Ensembles through day 7 mean temp for Yakima hovers around -8c, solid, prolonged backdoor cold into Columbia Basin. Surprisingly good agreement.

[Perturbed Member]

FWIW

 

[wx_statman]

12.6 for bonners ferry is huge. They dont ever get much at once like that.

 

Nice snowcover from the Cascades to the Rockies now. Should help maintain any Arctic air that decides to drop down.

[Deweydog]

When things go right, thank Phil.

 

When they go wrong, blame Jesse.

 

These are the rules of the forum.

And when Flatiron pleads for credit we give him a big, warm, condescending forum hug.

[MossMan]

Isn’t this fun!!! One thing I miss during the summer is all the model riding fun!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Forecast models really dont seem to be any more accurate than they were in 2008.

[Front Ranger]

And when Flatiron pleads for credit we give him a big, warm, condescending forum hug.

I only plead for truth, justice, and the American way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My fiance was nice enough to record the daily high/lows for me while I was gone. Looks like I hit 47 on Monday. Will be the 2nd December in a row that I don't hit 50. 

[Deweydog]

I only plead for truth, justice, and the American way.

Nationalist scum!

[Jesse]

Looks like a midnight low for PDX.

[TT-SEA]

The WRF is actually showing snow on Sunday morning... waiting to see the next few frames on the extended page.

 

[Winterdog]

Only got up to 37 here today after a low of 34.  31 now under a partial fog/low cloud influx.  If the Euro holds on to the cold outlook we will have a trifecta with all three biggies agreeing in general.  I don't think we've had that happen yet since the colder scenarios started showing up.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can't imagine I'll get above 32-34 tomorrow. If I had to take a guess at a high for tomorrow here I'd say 32.