January Weather In the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Snowfall over the last 30 days. Lol, you couldn’t script this any better (worse).

 

The DC “s***hole”.

 

Imagine living in one of those snowbelt areas where you know you're going to get clobbered every winter. The power of lake effect snow is amazing.

[Phil]

Ryan Maue’s new website is epic. Getting more-so by the day, too.

[Phil]

Imagine living in one of those snowbelt areas where you know you're going to get clobbered every winter. The power of lake effect snow is amazing.

There’s nothing like it. There was a lake-effect storm up in NY that should have broken Colorado’s 24hr snowfall record, but the doofus observer took one of the measurements too soon after the previous one, so it had to be thrown out. I forget the town/year..will have to look it up.

 

One of these years, there’s going to be an early season blast that cranks out 90”/24hrs somewhere with an observing station.

[High Desert Mat!]

My mother lives in Jamestown NY. She's told me about past lake effect snows that would blow our minds. Obviously late November and December is where the heaviest snows would be due to Erie not freezing over yet but she's told me about some of those later winter snows that can be devastating as well. Cool stuff

[Front Ranger]

Half a mile from me averages 1,200"/year.

[Phil]

I think the 00z GFS will be an improvement over the 18z in the clown range, for whatever it’s worth. Siberian cyclone is farther east @ 138hrs, giving the NPAC ridge a harder kick in the arse.

[Front Ranger]

I think the 00z GFS will be an improvement over the 18z in the clown range, for whatever it’s worth. Siberian cyclone is farther east @ 138hrs, giving the NPAC ridge a harder kick in the arse.

 

Sounds plausible. The clown range is the most common range for improvements.

[Phil]

Sounds plausible. The clown range is the most common range for improvements.

Lol, that much is true.

[Front Ranger]

Didn't even have to wait for Pennywise range...0z already much improved at day 7.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z was decent in clown range...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sub 522 thicknesses and boring southerly flow on the 00z

 

#badlocation #centralvalley

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sub 522 thicknesses and boring southerly flow on the 00z

 

#badlocation #centralvalley

 

Pretty solid up herrrrr....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Pretty solid up herrrrr....

Oh yeah. And in Bend too.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

My mother lives in Jamestown NY. She's told me about past lake effect snows that would blow our minds. Obviously late November and December is where the heaviest snows would be due to Erie not freezing over yet but she's told me about some of those later winter snows that can be devastating as well. Cool stuff

 

My mom always talks about the "blizzard of 77" when she was living on the Niagara Peninsula. In that case Lake Erie froze complete over and then it built up a thick layer of powdery snow. When they finally got a major storm all that snow was blasted into the nearby communities creating drifts larger than houses.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z GEM actually has a decent look to it at the end. This sort of pattern has worked out well in the past. Still aligns with a possible end of January/start of February blast. The GFS is uglier with the cutoff ridge, but could still come through in the first week of February.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Active run. 

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raining incredibly hard this evening.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I should have known not to try and extrapolate the clown range GFS. Furnaces the entire NH under +EPO/+NAO.

 

Lol..

 

 

The end of the GFS isn't bad for the PNW.

[Phil]

The end of the GFS isn't bad for my location.

FYP.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[HighlandExperience]

Good stuff coming for us near the end of the month. At the very least getting out of the funk of the past three weeks

[Phil]

Nice hemispheric/global temperature drop, though.

 

AlpineExperience can breathe a sigh of relief.

 

Days 0-5:

 

Days 5-10:

 

Days 10-15:

[Phil]

Ha, the Northern Hemispheric temperature anomaly drops by 1.07C this run. Usually need a SSW for that.

[Guest Dome Buster]

My mother lives in Jamestown NY. She's told me about past lake effect snows that would blow our minds. Obviously late November and December is where the heaviest snows would be due to Erie not freezing over yet but she's told me about some of those later winter snows that can be devastating as well. Cool stuff

East coast ridges can be very good for march even April snowfalls for the snowbelts over there. No frozen lakes dot com.

[Guest Dome Buster]

East coast ridges can be very good for march even April snowfalls for the snowbelts over there. No frozen lakes dot com.

Meaning if they happen a month before it gets cold again. Thawing the lakes. I think this will probably be one of those years.

[Phil]

I like how the block forms though, just need it to amplify up into Alaska. There's also that SE ridge there.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011800/384/500h_anom.na.png

I do like the long period wave-2 pattern w/ the MJO propagating towards the WHEM, which is now a consensus on all of the modeling and analog years. It will provide opportunity for the PNW/western Canada to receive cross polar flow through the first 10 days of February (whether it actually happens is debatable), then it will start bringing bigger Arctic assaults back into the picture for the US thereafter, later in February. The latter might be a higher confidence forecast than the former.

[stuffradio]

I was unaware of the torch in Western Europe. One of my good friends lives in Trier, Germany and I check the weather there from time to time. Seems like it has been cool to seasonable.

I was in Trier a couple summers ago. There are some cool buildings there.

[Dave]

My mom always talks about the "blizzard of 77" when she was living on the Niagara Peninsula. In that case Lake Erie froze complete over and then it built up a thick layer of powdery snow. When they finally got a major storm all that snow was blasted into the nearby communities creating drifts larger than houses.

I've read several articles about that and viewed some of pics. Truly remarkable event. Here's Oregon's unfortunate similarity.

 

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_X4qe7-HyiEs/TT5wwO8q0dI/AAAAAAAADVw/mFOAQvKMRrY/s1600/IMG_2682.JPG

[ShawniganLake]

Scattered thunderstorms across southern Vancouver Island this evening. Seem to be avoiding MBY but I have heard reports elsewhere.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I do like the long period wave-2 pattern w/ the MJO propagating towards the WHEM, which is now a consensus on all of the modeling and analog years. It will provide opportunity for the PNW/western Canada to receive cross polar flow through the first 10 days of February (whether it actually happens is debatable), then it will start bringing bigger Arctic assaults back into the picture for the US thereafter, later in February. The latter might be a higher confidence forecast than the former.

Yeah, I agree with your sentiments. I think the ECMWF might be handling the EPO better in the long range than the GFS. 12z ECMWF EPO looks like it's about to turn negative while the 00z GFS wants to keep it positive. If we can get the EPO negative, it's going to help with cross polar flow and bring the Arctic air down to the NW.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_epo_forecast.png

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/gfs_epo_forecast.png

[TT-SEA]

Scattered thunderstorms across southern Vancouver Island this evening. Seem to be avoiding MBY but I have heard reports elsewhere.

 

Tomorrow looks like a prime day for convection across most of the region.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I have no idea why mark Nelsen is such a warm weather ***** now? Is it because his chickens might freeze? It's weird because I remember when he liked snow. Probably just appeasing to what fox12 tells him to say because Portland is the new San Francisco. Lake Oswego and west linn are a hell hole.

[James Jones]

I have no idea why mark Nelsen is such a warm weather ***** now? Is it because his chickens might freeze? It's weird because I remember when he liked snow. Probably just appeasing to what fox12 tells him to say because Portland is the new San Francisco. Lake Oswego and west linn are a hell hole.

 

#huh

[wx_statman]

There’s nothing like it. There was a lake-effect storm up in NY that should have broken Colorado’s 24hr snowfall record, but the doofus observer took one of the measurements too soon after the previous one, so it had to be thrown out. I forget the town/year..will have to look it up.

 

One of these years, there’s going to be an early season blast that cranks out 90”/24hrs somewhere with an observing station.

 

77" in Montague, NY in January 1997. The observer took 5 measurements on his snow board instead of 4, rendering his record invalid. A dumb way to lose a record IMO.

[Phil]

77" in Montague, NY in January 1997. The observer took 5 measurements on his snow board instead of 4, rendering his record invalid. A dumb way to lose a record IMO.

Gaaahh. Unbelievable.

[Phil]

Over 6 feet of snow in 24 hours. That’s actually scary to think about.

[stuffradio]

Tomorrow looks like a prime day for convection across most of the region.

Supposedly some people in surrounding cities of me heard thunder tonight. I didn't hear it this time though.

[ShawniganLake]

77" in Montague, NY in January 1997. The observer took 5 measurements on his snow board instead of 4, rendering his record invalid. A dumb way to lose a record IMO.

Are you supposed to measure and clear the board every 6 hours? Then total the 4 measurements for your 24hr total?

[wx_statman]

Are you supposed to measure and clear the board every 6 hours? Then total the 4 measurements for your 24hr total?

 

You got it. That's what the NWS considers official.