January Weather In the PNW

[Jesse]

Ensembles are pretty meh...

Looks like the coldest overall of the last several to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the coldest overall of the last several to me.

 

DEFINITELY not as good as the 06z ensembles. 

[wx_statman]

I just woke up to a temp of 44F here in Tahoe. Easily the warmest overnight low I have ever seen during winter and it isn't even raining. During our winter rain storms it would still be upper 30's. Mid 40's for a low is something that we would see in July or August.

 

If it makes you feel better, Alaska has been seeing record warm nights for January as well. Yakutat the other day had a low of 47. Never saw a January min above 45 before that. Other places in SE AK have seen highs into the mid-60s, which had never happened before anywhere in Alaska in January. 

[Jesse]

DEFINITELY not as good as the 06z ensembles.

I think they were pretty close. Let’s use the CFS as a tiebreaker.

[ShawniganLake]

I think they were pretty close. Let’s use the CFS as a tiebreaker.

[Jesse]

If it makes you feel better, Alaska has been seeing record warm nights for January as well. Yakutat the other day had a low of 47. Never saw a January min above 45 before that. Other places in SE AK have seen highs into the mid-60s, which had never happened before anywhere in Alaska in January.

Wow.

[BLI snowman]

Ensembles are pretty meh...

 

They look better than the 06z and 00z.

[wx_statman]

Wow.

 

NW N. America is killing it this century. With the AK record last weekend, the domination is complete. Monthly state/provincial records for January have all been set in the last 13 years:

 

BC - 71 at Myra Creek (2005)

YT - 62 at Burwash (2014)

NT - 59 at Fort Liard (2014)

AK - 66 at Annette (2018)

[Guest happ]

A little snow on the ridge this morning... have not seen that too often lately.   Its getting colder!  

 

 

Remind me the name of the brilliant red bark trees

[TT-SEA]

Remind me the name of the brilliant red bark trees

 

Coral Bark Japanese Maple...

 

http://www.monrovia.com/plant-catalog/plants/37/coral-bark-japanese-maple/

 

They are beautiful trees all year around.    The red bark actually intensifies in color during the winter months.  

[Jesse]

NW N. America is killing it this century. With the AK record last weekend, the domination is complete. Monthly state/provincial records for January have all been set in the last 13 years:

 

BC - 71 at Myra Creek (2005)

YT - 62 at Burwash (2014)

NT - 59 at Fort Liard (2014)

AK - 66 at Annette (2018)

Those pesky Hadley cells.

 

What was the previous AK monthly record?

[Guest happ]

Coral Bark Japanese Maple...

 

http://www.monrovia.com/plant-catalog/plants/37/coral-bark-japanese-maple/

 

They are beautiful trees all year around.    The red bark actually intensifies in color during the winter months.  

 

Stunning trees that won't grow here 

[Phil]

The IPCC might be able to help you out with this one.

Lol. If there’s a connection there, the IPCC certainly hasn’t found it yet (keep in mind, the warm pool should be viewed in context with the rest of the Pacific..if the entire ocean warms evenly, the warm pool index doesn’t change).

[Phil]

You can tell its been cold in DC... I was just flipping around channels and saw this. Does not look like that around here.

 

The dryness is playing a big role too. This place is like a tinderbox ready to go off. I’ve never seen things this dead/brown before.

[TT-SEA]

Is ECMWF coming out faster now?  Already done.   

 

Next Thursday looks very good now... and then ridging builds back in.  

[wx_statman]

Those pesky Hadley cells.

 

What was the previous AK monthly record?

 

62 at Petersburg in 1981. The Juneau WFO almost tied it in 2009 during that death-ridge, hitting 61. Broke right through this time!

[TT-SEA]

Next Thursday is quite cold on the 12Z ECMWF... but there is very little precip now. Always something.

[Phil]

Why am I not surprised..

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NW N. America is killing it this century. With the AK record last weekend, the domination is complete. Monthly state/provincial records for January have all been set in the last 13 years:

 

BC - 71 at Myra Creek (2005)

YT - 62 at Burwash (2014)

NT - 59 at Fort Liard (2014)

AK - 66 at Annette (2018)

Kind of explains why our Januaries have sucked.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z ECMWF snow totals for PDX Metro through 10am next Friday. Those living at elevation should do the best.

[HighlandExperience]

Next Thursday is quite cold on the 12Z ECMWF... but there is very little precip now. Always something.

Post snowfall map from wxbell

[ShawniganLake]

[HighlandExperience]

9F1998D6-9928-40C7-B325-34F5B2FE6A14.png

 

That is pretty good for Snohomish north. Would really like to see Puget Sound not get shadowed. Plenty of time for that to change. Either way that is pretty widespread snow. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

9F1998D6-9928-40C7-B325-34F5B2FE6A14.png

Pretty Marginal for the lowlands in central King Pierce

[HighlandExperience]

Pretty Marginal for the lowlands in central King Pierce

 

We get shadowed good on this run. Plenty of time for that to improve. (crossing fingers).. Still quite a few days away. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9F1998D6-9928-40C7-B325-34F5B2FE6A14.png

If I can get at least 2 inches, I'll be happy with that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We get shadowed good on this run. Plenty of time for that to improve. (crossing fingers).. Still quite a few days away. 

I don't think it is a shadow issue or kitsap would be very dry. Not cold near sound is causing issue I bet.

[ShawniganLake]

That is pretty good for Snohomish north. Would really like to see Puget Sound not get shadowed. Plenty of time for that to change. Either way that is pretty widespread snow.

Precip is fairly light and showery Wednesday thru Saturday. The north Sound does a little better as it’s colder Wednesday and Thursday and wetter later in the week.

[Jesse]

Why am I not surprised..

 

 

Trending positive.

 

Always nice to have the end of our window in sight before it’s even started.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12z ECMWF snow totals for PDX Metro through 10am next Friday. Those living at elevation should do the best.

The ECMWF snow depth maps are ridiculous.  According to their current snow depth maps, I now have between 60 and 80 inches on the ground (we actually have about 6-8), and even Wenatchee should now  have 36 inches (they have no snow on the ground at all).

[HighlandExperience]

The ECMWF snow depth maps are ridiculous.  According to their current snow depth maps, I now have between 60 and 80 inches on the ground (we actually have about 6-8), and even Wenatchee should now  have 36 inches (they have no snow on the ground at all).

 

Probably just a resolution issue. I would imagine the surrounding terrain around leavenworth might have something to do with that. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

9F1998D6-9928-40C7-B325-34F5B2FE6A14.png

 

Yeah, the central and south valley might see flakes but they won't be sticking.  Doubtful much of anywhere below 500' but it looks to be a solid, chilly onshore flow event.  Maybe similar to that one in Eugene in Jan, 2008 when the precip rates were heavy enough, it was able to accumulate about 1-2 quick, wet inches.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The ECMWF snow depth maps are ridiculous.  According to their current snow depth maps, I now have between 60 and 80 inches on the ground (we actually have about 6-8), and even Wenatchee should now  have 36 inches (they have no snow on the ground at all).

That's interesting. It must not think the snow ever melts in those areas. They need to fix their algorithm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When does all this snow on the EURO supposedly fall? Wednesday night-Friday am next week? 

 

At hour 240 the EURO is WAY worse than the GFS and GEM. The GFS shows us getting slammed with another cold trough, and the GEM shows it about 24 hours away from hitting. The EURO isn't even close. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Definitely don't ask him what he thinks about Salem.

 

Well, Salem is a shi++y place to live if you like snow for sure.

[Front Ranger]

Improvements in the mid range. Always much better to see than anything way out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely don't ask him what he thinks about Salem.

 

Definitely don't ask him what he thinks about Salem.

 

Its because he commutes like an hour and he has to work on days when it snows even if it is his day off. He lives in one of the coldest micro-climates in the metro, so I don't think he "hates" cold weather all that much.

[MossMan]

Trending positive.

 

Always nice to have the end of our window in sight before it’s even started.

It will tank to record territory in April and stay that way for two months.

[Bryant]

12z ECMWF snow totals for PDX Metro through 10am next Friday. Those living at elevation should do the best.

You're analyzing snow totals 8 days from now? Hmmmm... I suppose I should start analyzing snow totals at hour 360 as well

[Bryant]

9F1998D6-9928-40C7-B325-34F5B2FE6A14.png

This is a Bryant special, therefore it should be thrown out because it won't happen lol