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1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Minny_Weather
Minny_Weather

You go on one side of the room   You go on the other.

St Paul Storm
St Paul Storm

Driving down my street. Heavy, wet snow. Gonna be some clogged snowblowers tonight.

gabel23
gabel23

Tell me about it! My snowboard has been at 8" of snow since noon and I know we picked up at least another 3". Here are some pics I have taken throughout the day including the ones I took not long ago;

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

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I wonder what OAX will do for watches/warnings this afternoon?

I'd put areas along I-80 in an advisory if I were them. I think all of the current advisory counties besides Seward need to be upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. They can re-assess during tomorrow's night shift.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

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Euro/NAM vs GFS...I think the odds stack in your favor for getting a decent snowstorm...

The 12z GFS looks a lot like the Euro imo don't you think Tom?? I'm telling you what, you guys in Lincoln and Omaha aren't gonna do that bad out of this!!!! Awesome how things are changing and we are within 12 hours of the storm.

 

Central Neb, same conditions here. Foggy and misty outside and the feeling of impending storm is driving up the suspension in my house hold!! My daugthers and I are gonna have a blast in the snow tomorrow!!! 

snku_acc.us_nc.png

today.png

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

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I have a feeling the amounts on the NAM and Euro espeically aren't going to be realized on the south end of things. I am going to guess the dry slot is being under modeled(It usually is). This is why I believe the warnings are good where they are, with maybe another tier of advisories on the south end, nothing more. The heaviest axis of snow is probsblyq going to verify a tad narrower because of this.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The 12z GFS looks a lot like the Euro imo don't you think Tom?? I'm telling you what, you guys in Lincoln and Omaha aren't gonna do that bad out of this!!!! Awesome how things are changing and we are within 12 hours of the storm.

 

Central Neb, same conditions here. Foggy and misty outside and the feeling of impending storm is driving up the suspension in my house hold!! My daugthers and I are gonna have a blast in the snow tomorrow!!! 

Out by you, yes they are similar...I was referring to the MSP area...the battle there is going to be interesting how it plays out.

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

Posted
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12:30 update. MPX currently going with a blend of the GFS and NSSL WRF for its forecast. Qpf of 0.5” at MSP. Take it for what it’s worth. Changes still coming.

 

Meanwhile we’ve hit 40 for a third straight day. Less than 1” OTG now. Bare ground gonna be ugly whoever doesn’t get any snow.

Nssl wrf.. Wtf

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gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

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You can tell by local Met social media postings here in ENeb that these latest shifts have created a bit of concern.

They should be because everyone I heard talk basically mentioned Lincoln and Omaha wouldn't get anything. I'm excited for this afternoon's disco and updated snow graphics. I expect the advisories and warnings to be expanded to the east. 

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St Paul Storm Contributor

St Paul Storm

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Nssl wrf.. Wtf

National severe storms laboratory suite of models. I had no idea. I know a few of them are on TT, but I had to look this up myself to figure out what the heck NSSL is. I glance at those models from time to time, and they’re rarely right. MSP using any model they can for assistance. Except the NAVY of course.

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

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Eyes are glued to HRRR. That's what gave me rekindled hope with its last run. Looking identical so far. Dry slot is there but it'd be rain during the shafted period if precip were to fall.

 

This thing slowing down allows the dry slot to be here when it'd be rain/ZR falling, not snow. That's a good thing.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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NH4NU Apprentice

NH4NU

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This truly is a serious question and not meant to stir the pot, but I recall many many storms ago that severe storms in the south robbed some of our systems moisture. Don’t recall reasoning, but is that something we should monitor or be concerned of as well?

 

Also want to note that 10/11 in LNK has increased their snowfall forecast to 2-4” for both LNK and OMA.

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

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This truly is a serious question and not meant to stir the pot, but I recall many many storms ago that severe storms in the south robbed some of our systems moisture. Don’t recall reasoning, but is that something we should monitor or be concerned of as well?

 

Also want to note that 10/11 in LNK has increased their snowfall forecast to 2-4” for both LNK and OMA.

That won't be an issue with this one. 

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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This truly is a serious question and not meant to stir the pot, but I recall many many storms ago that severe storms in the south robbed some of our systems moisture. Don’t recall reasoning, but is that something we should monitor or be concerned of as well?

 

Also want to note that 10/11 in LNK has increased their snowfall forecast to 2-4” for both LNK and OMA.

Yes, but only if there is a weak SLP that doesn't have the strength to pull and wrap the moisture around into the cold sector.  In this instance, you do not need to worry.  This is going to be a mature mid latitude cyclone.

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