jaster220 Posted May 9, 2018 Report Share Posted May 9, 2018 Not that I want a tornado to come through my town but......my fellow Lincoln friends remember 2 years ago??? Tornado does not appear to have done much, but that hail - yikes! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 10, 2018 Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 Tornado does not appear to have done much, but that hail - yikes! Hail and Ice are my two most unwanted precipitation. Cannot stand them. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 10, 2018 Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 In looking at doing a summer 2018 long range guess one of the items I looked was finding a year where a cold April was followed by a warmer than average May. In looking at the top 20 coldest April’s I found only 4 Cold Aprils that were followed by a warmer than average May. That only happened in 1936. 1944, 1965 and 1982. Here is a month by month break down of the summers that had a much colder then average April followed by a warmer then average May(note most cold Aprils were followed by a colder then average May as well) note the departure for April 2018 at Grand Rapids was -7.9° All of the years I looked at were a top 20 coldest April at Detroit. Flint and Saginaw.1936April -5.7°May +4.2°June -1.2°July +4.8°August +3.1°1944April -6.0°May +2.2°June +0.5°July -1.5°August +0.9°1965April -5.2°May +3.5°June -2.5°July -2.5°August -2.9°1982April -6.2°May +6.3°June -5.6°July +0.6°August -2.2°In looking at all past cold April’s the summer that followed 1936 was by far the warmest. In fact July of that year was very hot! This would indicate that this summer will be overall cooler than average’ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 In looking at doing a summer 2018 long range guess one of the items I looked was finding a year where a cold April was followed by a warmer than average May. In looking at the top 20 coldest April’s I found only 4 Cold Aprils that were followed by a warmer than average May. That only happened in 1936. 1944, 1965 and 1982. Here is a month by month break down of the summers that had a much colder then average April followed by a warmer then average May(note most cold Aprils were followed by a colder then average May as well) note the departure for April 2018 at Grand Rapids was -7.9° All of the years I looked at were a top 20 coldest April at Detroit. Flint and Saginaw.1936April -5.7°May +4.2°June -1.2°July +4.8°August +3.1°1944April -6.0°May +2.2°June +0.5°July -1.5°August +0.9°1965April -5.2°May +3.5°June -2.5°July -2.5°August -2.9°1982April -6.2°May +6.3°June -5.6°July +0.6°August -2.2°In looking at all past cold April’s the summer that followed 1936 was by far the warmest. In fact July of that year was very hot! This would indicate that this summer will be overall cooler than average’Great work! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 10, 2018 Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 In looking at doing a summer 2018 long range guess one of the items I looked was finding a year where a cold April was followed by a warmer than average May. In looking at the top 20 coldest April’s I found only 4 Cold Aprils that were followed by a warmer than average May. That only happened in 1936. 1944, 1965 and 1982. Here is a month by month break down of the summers that had a much colder then average April followed by a warmer then average May(note most cold Aprils were followed by a colder then average May as well) note the departure for April 2018 at Grand Rapids was -7.9° All of the years I looked at were a top 20 coldest April at Detroit. Flint and Saginaw.1936April -5.7°May +4.2°June -1.2°July +4.8°August +3.1°1944April -6.0°May +2.2°June +0.5°July -1.5°August +0.9°1965April -5.2°May +3.5°June -2.5°July -2.5°August -2.9°1982April -6.2°May +6.3°June -5.6°July +0.6°August -2.2°In looking at all past cold April’s the summer that followed 1936 was by far the warmest. In fact July of that year was very hot! This would indicate that this summer will be overall cooler than average’I'm pretty sure ol '36 was my state's hottest summer. Please, for Heaven's sake not that one! It was a dust bowl year though and drought in the SW this year does parallel it a bit. It is argued that 2011 was hotter but by standard of knowing that there was still vegetation covering the soil in most of Oklahoma in 2011, although most was dead or severely drought stricken, I don't think it is possible that 2011 was hotter than 1936. I am aware of what the climate record says though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted May 10, 2018 Report Share Posted May 10, 2018 I'm pretty sure ol '36 was my state's hottest summer. Please, for Heaven's sake not that one! It was a dust bowl year though and drought in the SW this year does parallel it a bit. It is argued that 2011 was hotter but by standard of knowing that there was still vegetation covering the soil in most of Oklahoma in 2011, although most was dead or severely drought stricken, I don't think it is possible that 2011 was hotter than 1936. I am aware of what the climate record says though.I remember going to Duncan, OK in the dreaded 2011 Summer. All the vegetation was brown and the highs we're consistently in the mid-upper 100s when we were there. That was the trip from hell. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 This is why I wasn't buying into the El Nino forming by late Summer according to the Euro seasonal a couple months ago. It's latest weeklies show the reasoning why any warming shall be delayed across the equatorial PAC. Strong easterlies are evident into the early part of June. Warm ENSO neutral conditions are looking more likely IMO than an El Nino by the early Autumn. I bet some mets make their adjustments over the next several months. Not surprisingly, the Euro seasonal has backed off slightly on the warmer plumes into Autumn... Last months run... vs current... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 11, 2018 Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 I remember going to Duncan, OK in the dreaded 2011 Summer. All the vegetation was brown and the highs we're consistently in the mid-upper 100s when we were there. That was the trip from hell.Most physically draining summer of my life. I worked as a supervisor/maintenance in a heat powered feed mill that summer. Also worked for 3 days at another of our Mills in Memphis TN in early July that year. It ruined me forever on summer. Literally just made me hate summer forever. I looked like I aged 5 years by the time that winter arrived. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 11, 2018 Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 This is why I wasn't buying into the El Nino forming by late Summer according to the Euro seasonal a couple months ago. It's latest weeklies show the reasoning why any warming shall be delayed across the equatorial PAC. Strong easterlies are evident into the early part of June. Warm ENSO neutral conditions are looking more likely IMO than an El Nino by the early Autumn. I bet some mets make their adjustments over the next several months. Not surprisingly, the Euro seasonal has backed off slightly on the warmer plumes into Autumn... Last months run... vs current... That's a good correction but, as you said, not near enough. If, and that is a big IF we see a Niño, I don't think I can say it will make official Niño status. I would love to wishcast the weak Modoki Niño that some in other places have written of, but I just can't buy it. The evidence you have posted is pretty sufficient for why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 11, 2018 Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 Did somebody mention weak Nino? Yes pls.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 11, 2018 Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 Did somebody mention weak Nino? Yes pls.. We can hope but I'm not getting anywhere near that statement yet. Lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2018 Now, this Euro Weeklies map makes more sense with above normal precip...it certainly does agree with the CFSv2 so something to look forward to where it has been dry across the Plains and southern MW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 I wonder if the Volcano that has erupted in Hawaii (Kilauea) will have any impact on our weather pattern down the road. Perhaps cool off the atmosphere or any other possible scenario. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 I wonder if the Volcano that has erupted in Hawaii (Kilauea) will have any impact on our weather pattern down the road. Perhaps cool off the atmosphere or any other possible scenario. If I have studied how that works correctly, I'm sure it would have some effect. It does seem that a much larger magnitude eruption(s) of a certain kind are more preferred and the lower in latitude they are, the longer effects take. Given that we are in the early part of solar minimum, hard to say. Odds favor that one being the first of many eruptions worldwide. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 If I have studied how that works correctly, I'm sure it would have some effect. It does seem that a much larger magnitude eruption(s) of a certain kind are more preferred and the lower in latitude they are, the longer effects take. Given that we are in the early part of solar minimum, hard to say. Odds favor that one being the first of many eruptions worldwide.Also, I am guessing that it depends on the amount of gases and dust particles added into the atmosphere, which will have some influences on climate. Particles spewed from volcanoes cool the planet by shading incoming solar radiation. I believe back in the 80s, not sure what Volcano that was, had cooled off our planet quite significantly. I think it lasted several months, perhaps even more. All depends on the eruption I guess. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 I wonder if the Volcano that has erupted in Hawaii (Kilauea) will have any impact on our weather pattern down the road. Perhaps cool off the atmosphere or any other possible scenario. At this time no, for any large-scale impact it would take a much larger eruption one that would get ash up to at least 35,000 feet to have any effect. Think Mount Pinatubo size eruption or bigger. Not sure even if Mt St Hellen was a big enough to cause a cool down or not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Also, I am guessing that it depends on the amount of gases and dust particles added into the atmosphere, which will have some influences on climate. Particles spewed from volcanoes cool the planet by shading incoming solar radiation. I believe back in the 80s, not sure what Volcano that was, had cooled off our planet quite significantly. I think it lasted several months, perhaps even more. All depends on the eruption I guess. Mount Pinatubo 1991 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 At this time no, for any large-scale impact it would take a much larger eruption one that would get ash up to at least 35,000 feet to have any effect. Think Mount Pinatubo size eruption or bigger. Not sure even if Mt St Hellen was a big enough to cause a cool down or not.This is correct. Pinatubo is also a correct statement. If I'm not mistaken, there were a few major high latitude volcanoes in 2010 that helped aid in the high snow-to-liquid ratios that I experienced in that winter. Had something like 24-1" snow that season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 12, 2018 Report Share Posted May 12, 2018 Mount Pinatubo 1991Yup, that's the one. Great info...thanks for reminding me. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 13, 2018 Report Share Posted May 13, 2018 If your vote is for a short summer, the trends on the CFS are a real treat. This is for August. Yes please! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 At this time no, for any large-scale impact it would take a much larger eruption one that would get ash up to at least 35,000 feet to have any effect. Think Mount Pinatubo size eruption or bigger. Not sure even if Mt St Hellen was a big enough to cause a cool down or not. I always like to think that Mt. St. Helen's eruption in '81 contributed to our severe winter of 81-82, especially with Michigan being just down-wind of the ash plume. I have zero science to back that up tho. I've not heard nor seen if there is any proximity based cooling effects the same way there is for ash fallout for instance. As for the Hawaiian situation, it's not (yet) blown it's top as an actual major eruption tho the morning news said that scientists can't rule that out. But I thought there was/is another major eruption somewhere in the S Hemisphere within the past 6 months that could contribute a cooling effect to some portion of the planet if not here? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 If your vote is for a short summer, the trends on the CFS are a real treat. This is for August. Yes please!cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_3.pngYes please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 I always like to think that Mt. St. Helen's eruption in '81 contributed to our severe winter of 81-82, especially with Michigan being just down-wind of the ash plume. I have zero science to back that up tho. I've not heard nor seen if there is any proximity based cooling effects the same way there is for ash fallout for instance. As for the Hawaiian situation, it's not (yet) blown it's top as an actual major eruption tho the morning news said that scientists can't rule that out. But I thought there was/is another major eruption somewhere in the S Hemisphere within the past 6 months that could contribute a cooling effect to some portion of the planet if not here? there are always some volcanoes erupting somewhere here is a site that keeps track of that https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoes.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 I always like to think that Mt. St. Helen's eruption in '81 contributed to our severe winter of 81-82, especially with Michigan being just down-wind of the ash plume. I have zero science to back that up tho. I've not heard nor seen if there is any proximity based cooling effects the same way there is for ash fallout for instance. As for the Hawaiian situation, it's not (yet) blown it's top as an actual major eruption tho the morning news said that scientists can't rule that out. But I thought there was/is another major eruption somewhere in the S Hemisphere within the past 6 months that could contribute a cooling effect to some portion of the planet if not here? As for the Mt. St. Helen's eruption and if it contributed to the cold winter of 81/82 it very well may have. as not only wast he winter of 81/82 cold much of the summer was cool as well (May was warm that year) but by fall the temperatures were above average, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 Bottom line is that an eruption needs to be massive to affect our region in terms of below average temps and a colder Winter for that matter! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 Bottom line is that an eruption needs to be massive to affect our region in terms of below average temps and a colder Winter for that matter! Yellowstone? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 14, 2018 Report Share Posted May 14, 2018 Yellowstone? Nuclear winter!! Haha. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Yellowstone? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 15, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 The JMA/JAMSTEC come out with their seasonal forecasts in a day or two. I'm curious to see if the JAMSTEC still favors a blow torch for the Plains region and into parts of the MW. Given the general theme of the pattern this month, I'm skeptical to see a widespread torch, but moreso favoring the southern Plains up into KS/MO and even into NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Nuclear winter!! Haha. Somewhere yes, but nobody in the CONUS wants to see that long-dormant monster awaken. I don't recall where I saw this but they were saying that if that ever blew, the utter destruction zone would be as far east as all of Nebraska, and the major destruction would encompass the rest of the CONUS. Your nuclear winter would happen in Hawaii perhaps Speaking of.. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/959131/Yellowstone-Supervolcano-tectonic-shift-eruption "Even so, the Yellowstone supervolcano remains an endless source of apocalyptic fascination — and it's not hard to see why. In September 2014, a team of scientists published a paper in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems exploring what a Yellowstone super-eruption might actually look like.Among other things, they found the volcano was capable of burying states like Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado in three feet of harmful volcanic ash — a mix of splintered rock and glass — and blanket the Midwest. That much ash could kill plants and animals, crush roofs, and short all sorts of electrical equipment:" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 Somewhere yes, but nobody in the CONUS wants to see that long-dormant monster awaken. I don't recall where I saw this but they were saying that if that ever blew, the utter destruction zone would be as far east as all of Nebraska, and the major destruction would encompass the rest of the CONUS. Your nuclear winter would happen in Hawaii perhaps Speaking of.. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/959131/Yellowstone-Supervolcano-tectonic-shift-eruption "Even so, the Yellowstone supervolcano remains an endless source of apocalyptic fascination — and it's not hard to see why. In September 2014, a team of scientists published a paper in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems exploring what a Yellowstone super-eruption might actually look like.Among other things, they found the volcano was capable of burying states like Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado in three feet of harmful volcanic ash — a mix of splintered rock and glass — and blanket the Midwest. That much ash could kill plants and animals, crush roofs, and short all sorts of electrical equipment:"Oh I know. It was only a joke. I vote for some Icelandic monster volcanoes to blow sometime soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 15, 2018 Report Share Posted May 15, 2018 The JMA/JAMSTEC come out with their seasonal forecasts in a day or two. I'm curious to see if the JAMSTEC still favors a blow torch for the Plains region and into parts of the MW. Given the general theme of the pattern this month, I'm skeptical to see a widespread torch, but moreso favoring the southern Plains up into KS/MO and even into NE.I'd much rather it not but I still haven't ruled out blowtorching through June and early July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 I'd much rather it not but I still haven't ruled out blowtorching through June and early July.It looks like the JMA seasonal outlook keeps a +PNA pattern through July and the west/SW fry in June into July. Overall, it's not a terribly warm outlook across the central/southern Plains throughout the summer. No real dryness as well which I'm not really buying into for parts of the southern Plains. Keeps most of the real heat in the inter-mountain west. On a side note, check out the summertime vortex across the Archipelago regions of Canada. This has been a reoccurring theme over the last several summers and something I've been paying attention to as we enter the Solar Minimum.Edit: I think we will hear reports that ice on Hudson Bay will be melting very late this year with abnormally long lasting ice into the summer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 The latest IRI-multi model has been fairly steady with its summer outlook. Pretty obvious west coast ridge pattern and a seasonal look across the central CONUS with a spot or two BN temp wise. Moisture pattern across the south may be suggesting an active hurricane season out of the GOM. This could make sense if you build higher heights across Canada and a pocket of cooler temps at times stearing any storm development out of the Gulf into the southern CONUS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 Another interesting trend from the JMA season is that it keeps ENSO neutral conditions throughout the Summer months across the equatorial PAC, while the N PAC warms considerably. Current state of the NE PAC is warming up big time and the idea of a west coast ridge is starting to make sense IMO. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R90_1/Y201805.D1100_gls.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 Great stuff Tom. I can't disagree with you. Hoping August changes a bit but for this time, I'm getting that next month is likely our coolest month. Those warm plumes off the continents are pretty impressive. We don't hear many reports when ice stays longer than it should but you're right it should hang on pretty far into the summer up there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 Great stuff Tom. I can't disagree with you. Hoping August changes a bit but for this time, I'm getting that next month is likely our coolest month. Those warm plumes off the continents are pretty impressive. We don't hear many reports when ice stays longer than it should but you're right it should hang on pretty far into the summer up there. How'd you get that from his post? Did I miss something? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 16, 2018 Report Share Posted May 16, 2018 How'd you get that from his post? Did I miss something? See the posts above. He posted 3. I was replying to the one about the Canadian archipelago and ice on Hudson Bay. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2018 Ouch, the latest JAMSTEC still advertising a blow torch... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2018.1may2018.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2018.1may2018.gif One thing stands out to me though, knowing the LRC, and the potential for a hot spot of hurricane activity near the SE coast of the U.S., the model is pointing towards BN temps and AN precip in this region which fits the cycling pattern. With that being said, usually hurricanes "vent" out and promote ridging across the MW/GL's when these massive storms hit so there could be periods of quite warm periods if these hurricane hits happen. Something to keep in mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2018 I think the JAMSTEC is drinking the "Nino" juice...it is forecasting an El Nino by July....ya right, not happening... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1may2018.gif Especially if you consider a strong easterly wind burst into June per the latest 00z EPS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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