CentralNebWeather Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Hastings NWS morning disco: Precipitation amounts:Forecast models have been indicating lower precipitation amountsthe last several runs and this is not surprising given that thiswill be a rather quick moving open wave. Our bigger winter stormstend to be the slow moving cut off upper lows, which this is not.In addition, the temperature profile is not very favorable forgood dendritic growth even where it is cold enough to snow. Therewill likely still be some twists and turns in the this forecast sokeep up to date with forecast updates. Our current forecast willcontinue to follow the model consensus with the heaviestprecipitation expected across our northwestern zones with snowfallamounts of 2-5 inches. Our Kansas counties up to around GenevaNebraska will generally see less than 1 inch of snow, but couldsee up to one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. Somewhere inthe middle around Hastings we could see 2-3 inches of snow alongwith some freezing rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Advisory here...better then nothing! Couldnt buy ond of those last winter! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Yep another 1-3” snowfall coming. Nickel and dimers, nickel and dimers. I’ve had one snowfall bigger than 3” all winter and that was 4” I believe. What a joke! In fact it looks like the NWS has only had to copy and paste their last 3 forecasts for storms moving through. 2” of snow and .2” of ice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Yay another sub-20" snow season in the making! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 12Z NAM is nothing to write home about. Been an interesting, cold winter with many nickel and dimers as was mentioned above. However, so far it is the winter of storms that could have been but fizzled out, at least around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Ratios are gonna be garbage with this lol 3km NAM takes forever to change the ptype to snow, so we get 5 hours of snowfall and only an inch. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Looks like some nice convective-looking banding showing up on the 3km NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 You people crack me up. Complain all you want but think we could be last winters totals. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 I think MPX converts the watch into an advisory this afternoon. Looks like this event should be about the same as the one that rolled through last night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 You people crack me up. Complain all you want but think we could be last winters totals.What are you talking about? We're still well below average. Just because it's better than last Winter doesn't make it acceptable. Last Winter was 0.4" from being record low, it's not hard to beat last Winter. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Yay another sub-20" snow season in the making! Move north... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Move north... Since the odds of Lincoln suddenly becoming Marquette are not good... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Move north...Below 20" two straight seasons, and 4 out of the past 5 is not normal. Especially considering average is ~26". There's nothing "Move North" about that, madame. Obviously, we can recover, but time is running out. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Below 20" two straight seasons, and 4 out of the past 5 is not normal. Especially considering average is ~26". There's nothing "Move North" about that, madame. Obviously, we can recover, but time is running out. There is nothing abnormal about it...it is a below average interval. Every area gets them. It is made up for by the above average intervals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 There is nothing abnormal about it...it is a below average interval. Every area gets them. It is made up for by the above average intervals. Unless, of course, there is some noteworthy climatological change afoot; which is not entirely out of the question... Since most climate records are under 100 years in length; we only have the shortest of samples regarding what constitutes the general climatic conditions at any given venue. Thus we have but the tiniest of snapshots; and to draw conclusions about what is and is not standard weather at any one place is a bit of a leap. The longer a place's climate record; the more genuine insight we have regarding the actual average weather conditions at such a venue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 It is made up for by the above average intervals. Except Lincoln doesn't get those 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Except Lincoln doesn't get those SnowfallLincoln Airport: 2000-01: 37.9"2001-02: 29.5"2002-03: 31.7"2003-04: 35.9" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 SnowfallLincoln Airport: 1981-82: 32.3"1982-83: 38.0"1983-84: 47.5" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 There is nothing abnormal about it...it is a below average interval. Every area gets them. It is made up for by the above average intervals.If you acknowledge it's a below normal interval why did you tell me to move North? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 I noticed only an advisory for Norfolk. OAX went soft.....literally. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 If you acknowledge it's a below normal interval why did you tell me to move North? If you enjoy the snow; even the average for Lincoln (about 27" I suppose); would be unsatisfactory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 If you enjoy the snow; even the average for Lincoln (about 27" I suppose); would be unsatisfactory.There's many more reasons I live here than snow. Also, I'd be satisfied with 27" coming from Houston. This is only my second year here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 There's many more reasons I live here than snow. Also, I'd be satisfied with 27" coming from Houston. This is only my second year here. That's fine. To each his own. Most views and opinions are subjective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 I noticed only an advisory for Norfolk. OAX went soft.....literally. After seeing the NAMily I can't say I blame them. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 You people crack me up. Complain all you want but think we could be last winters totals.I agree Craig, this Winter despite it being underwhelming snowfall-wise, has been better than last year. Even though I did enjoy the February torch/heat wave last year versus this year’s cold and very icy February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 12Z Euro - I was hoping for a miracle, didn't happen. I think we can put this storm to bed for Nebraska, especially Central and Eastern. Not a bad look out west and north, same areas that keep getting hit over and over this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Models keep backing off on totals. Now euro has less then 6 now for minnesota! LOL 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Models keep backing off on totals. Now euro has less then 6 now for minnesota! LOLI flew over omaha. Still looked pretty domey 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Since the odds of Lincoln suddenly becoming Marquette are not good... And right on cue; the 12z Euro with at least 40 inches of snow in Marquette the next 9 days... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Models keep backing off on totals. Now euro has less then 6 now for minnesota! LOL Even with a good beginningIts not certain that your winning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Models keep backing off on totals. Now euro has less then 6 now for minnesota! LOLHow much for you?? I guess the question becomes would rather have the EURO painting .5QPF in your backyard or getting fringed by .2 inches of QPF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 How much for you?? I guess the question becomes would rather have the EURO painting .5QPF in your backyard or getting fringed by .2 inches of QPF?This. Should have a double digit combined snowfall from yesterday and tomorrow. Im sure he’d take that if given the option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 From the noon aviation update:Temperatures tonight will then plummet into the singledigits above and below zero, well below current dew point values.This should result in widespread freezing fog tonight, which willlikely be dense in some locations. Some improvement Saturdaymorning, before a wall of snow arrives mid afternoon. Conditionsare expected to deteriorate rapidly by Saturday evening with 1 to2 inch per hour rates possible until 06Z Sunday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 I think MPX converts the watch into an advisory this afternoon. Looks like this event should be about the same as the one that rolled through last night.Wrong. MPX upgraded to a warning. Going with widespread 6-9”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 Way too bullish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 MSP pulled the trigger on a winter storm warning. Calling for 5-8. I'll take it! Got ninjad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 MSP pulled the trigger on a winter storm warning. Calling for 5-8. I'll take it!Got ninjad.Weird. Part of their wording says 6-9” and then the actual WSW says 5-8”. Either way, it’s gonna snow again. Gotta love it. Good luck up your way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 I don't see 9 inches happening up north, its just too fast moving. I could see 4-6 inches max in southern Minnesota. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 I don't see 9 inches happening up north, its just too fast moving. I could see 4-6 inches max in southern Minnesota.How much under the dome? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 23, 2018 Report Share Posted February 23, 2018 From MPX: Not too much has changed from the previous forecast. NAM/NAMnestremain strong/western outliers. The ECMWF and GFS may not be quitestrong enough, but generally have good support with theirensembles. Continued a general blend of solutions, which alignedquite well with the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. This resulted in acontinuation of 6 to 8 inches for southern/eastern MN and western WI,and 4 to 6 inches to the west and east of there. Similar to lastnight, it isn`t impossible to see higher totals (in this case closerto 9 inches) on a localized scale given the rates and bandingexpected. Those areas won`t be known until hi-res models begin toget ahold of the event tonight and tomorrow. Upgraded to a warningin the locations with 6-7+ inches, and an advisory where we shouldremain just below 6. The headlines extend several hours past thetime snow is expected to end due to winds increasing and blowingsnow ramping up for a few hours after. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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