March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim says 85 by next weekend. Hard to imagine, but he is usually right.

[TT-SEA]

We have low clouds here.  It was almost like what you would see in the summer except it was frosty when the clouds first arrived.

 

 

Live view here... this is what a weak marine push looks like on a summer morning.   Status pushes up to the top of the ridge and you can see it descending down and disappearing.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Tim says 85 by next weekend. Hard to imagine, but he is usually right.

 

I am not sure your forecast of -10 at your house and 5 in Portland with 3 feet of snow will verify either... but you know your stuff! 

[TT-SEA]

Does it still show any accumulation for PDX metro south?

 

Better than the 00Z run down south.

 

This is total snow from Thursday morning through Monday morning...

 

[James Jones]

Better than the 00Z run down south.

 

This is total snow from Thursday morning through Monday morning...

 

 

 

Nice. Getting any accumulation that late would be pretty historic. This is even coming a tad later than the March 2012 event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Better than the 00Z run down south.

 

This is total snow from Thursday morning through Monday morning...

 

Holy mother of gosh

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS right on track... so consistent. Coldest air is well east by next Sunday and warm air and ridging is moving by Monday.

 

GFS and its ensembles are lost in week 2.

 

I am willing to takes some bets if anyone is interested.

[TT-SEA]

For reference... here is the 12Z EPS by day 11.     

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z EPS right on track... so consistent. Coldest air is well east by next Sunday and warm air and ridging is moving by Monday.

 

GFS and its ensembles are lost in week 2.

 

I am willing to takes some bets if anyone is interested.

Let’s see what the 18z gfs says

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Better than the 00Z run down south.

 

This is total snow from Thursday morning through Monday morning...

 

Looks like one more round of winter weather before we can finally stick a fork in it. Everybody should at the very least see wet snow with light accumulations.

[TT-SEA]

Let’s see what the 18z gfs says

Yes... so important.

 

I am sure it will be frigid for 17 days and completely irrelevant for week 2.    

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS blended 850mb temp mean for days 10-15... does not change much over that period.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like one more round of winter weather before we can finally stick a fork in it. Everybody should at the very least see wet snow with light accumulations.

 

Mark forked it too early!  

[Jesse]

EPS seems to show the bulk of high heights offshore. Which could lead to more cold shots like the GFS has been hinting at. Would make sense since it’s been leading the way lately.

[TT-SEA]

EPS seems to show the bulk of high heights offshore. Which could lead to more cold shots like the GFS has been hinting at. Would make sense since it’s been leading the way lately.

 

The EPS has been very consistent and accurate since late February with almost everything.   

[TT-SEA]

EPS seems to show the bulk of high heights offshore. Which could lead to more cold shots like the GFS has been hinting at. Would make sense since it’s been leading the way lately.

 

 

Let create a separate thread here and post the EPS and GFS ensemble maps and track it and actually score it in two weeks.    Lets really quantify it instead of just trolling with anecdotal observations.    I can go back and show how the EPS picked up on the cold trough coming for the 3/21-24 period since it first came into view.   And showed the warmth last weekend all along... while the GFS and it ensembles were showing cold and lowland snow on many runs for that time frame.  

 

I should have been doing this for the last month actually.  

[MossMan]

So it’s going to snow again...guess I will be adding to my 22” seasonal total.

[TT-SEA]

So it’s going to snow again...guess I will be adding to my 22” seasonal total.

 

Good assumption... but you moved so does it count?  

[Phil]

12Z EPS blended 850mb temp mean for days 10-15... does not change much over that period.

 

OT, but feels like it’s been winter forever here. Minus a warm stretch in Feb, it’s just been endless cold. We’re still dropping into the low/mid 20s every morning, and it’s been snowing on/off pretty consistently (including today).

 

Also have never seen the trees this late before. No real buds anywhere, no flowers, grass is still dead. Even the daffodils have stalled out. Looks no different than it did two months ago, really.

[TT-SEA]

OT, but feels like it’s been winter forever here. Minus a warm stretch in Feb, it’s just been endless cold. We’re still dropping into the low/mid 20s every morning, and it’s been snowing on/off pretty consistently (including today).

 

Also have never seen the trees this late before. No real buds anywhere, no flowers, grass is still dead. Even the daffodils have stalled out. Looks no different than it did two months ago, really.

 

 

Yeah... things really stalled here too from the middle of February until last weekend when it jumped forward again.  

 

I thought I have seen green grass and some flowering trees on the updates from the White House recently?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah... things really stalled here too from the middle of February until last weekend when it jumped forward again.

 

I thought I have seen green grass and some flowering trees on the updates from the White House recently?

I was there last week. I didn’t see green grass or anything flowering.

[TT-SEA]

I was there last week. I didn’t see green grass or anything flowering.

 

All I see is the White House and lawn and trees behind reporters.    I usually pay more attention to that than what they are saying.    But that is not like being there.  

[MossMan]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All I see is the White House and lawn and trees behind reporters. I usually pay more attention to that than what they are saying. But that is not like being there.

Yeah I mean there may be a tree or two flowering idk.

[Phil]

Yeah... things really stalled here too from the middle of February until last weekend when it jumped forward again.

 

I thought I have seen green grass and some flowering trees on the updates from the White House recently?

I don’t know about DC. I’m just talking about here in Montgomery County. There isn’t a hint of anything “green” minus the stalled daffodils poking out in flowerbeds.

 

FWIW, we usually run ~ 2 weeks behind downtown with trees/flowers. Our daytime highs are similar to DC but we’re much colder at night. Often by 10-15 degrees. Apparently it matters.

 

In the summer, it makes a huge difference since the early morning hours (between 5-7AM) can be somewhat tolerable here, while DC never seems to cool down at night under any circumstance. By 8-9AM, though, everyone joins the swamp party.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like one more round of winter weather before we can finally stick a fork in it. Everybody should at the very least see wet snow with light accumulations.

 

We're probably going to see very late frost this year, but this should be the last round that could be called wintry...Probably.

[snow_wizard]

OT, but feels like it’s been winter forever here. Minus a warm stretch in Feb, it’s just been endless cold. We’re still dropping into the low/mid 20s every morning, and it’s been snowing on/off pretty consistently (including today).

 

Also have never seen the trees this late before. No real buds anywhere, no flowers, grass is still dead. Even the daffodils have stalled out. Looks no different than it did two months ago, really.

 

The nights have been consistently chilly here also.  Pretty rare to see both coasts like that this late in the season.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t know about DC. I’m just talking about here in Montgomery County. There isn’t a hint of anything “green” minus the stalled daffodils poking out in flowerbeds.

 

We usually run ~ 2 weeks behind downtown with trees/flowers. Our daytime highs are similar to DC but we’re much colder at night. Often by 10-15 degrees. In the summer, it makes a huge difference since the early morning hours (between 5-7AM) can be tolerable here while DC never seems to cool down. By 8-9AM, though, everyone joins the misery party.

 

So this scene from North Bend, WA from last Tuesday is more springy than your neighborhood?

 

 

[Phil]

So this scene from North Bend, WA from last Tuesday is more springy than your neighborhood?

 

 

Lol, spring filter? That’s an absurd amount of “green” for your latitude in mid-March.

 

I just walked outside in the rain/sleet to take these, for comparison. It’s like we’ve switched climates.

 

Literally not a single bud on the trees. Even the cold winter of 2013/14 was farther along than this:

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty typical for green grass and cherry blossoms in the pnw in March. The flowering trees were hit hard in the Willamette valley during the March 2012 snow event. Tim implies it is something unusual.

[TT-SEA]

Phil... this is perfectly normal here for mid March.   Everything is right on track for our climate.    The University of Washington update this week said the cherry blossoms there (different variety and older trees) will peak this coming week which is exactly normal.   

 

The cherry blossoms were out a month earlier in 2015 and 2016.   And the grass is always lush green here in March... always.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty typical for green grass and cherry blossoms in the pnw in March. The flowering trees were hit hard in the Willamette valley during the March 2012 snow event. Tim implies it is something unusual.

 

 

I never implied that.   Just the opposite. 

 

The grass is always green and the cherry trees are blossoming every single year by March since we moved here 15 years ago.    Even in the coldest years.

 

We were way ahead of schedule in early February and then everything completely stalled.   Now we are right on track... not early or late.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I never implied that. Just the opposite.

 

The grass is always green and the cherry trees are blossoming every single year by March since we moved here 15 years ago. Even in the coldest years.

 

We were way ahead of schedule in early February and then everything completely stalled. Now we are right on track... not early or late.

Fair enough

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A line of thunderstorms has developed east of I5

Through the central Willamette valley

[TT-SEA]

Fair enough

 

Phil's big mistake is that he looks at our latitude and assumes we would be on pace with places like Montana and Minnesota and Maine.

 

But that is so far from the truth.  It so TOTALLY different west of the Cascades than anywhere else at our latitude in North America and probably the entire planet except for maybe western Europe.  

 

Here is a good reference for him...

 

http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/images_ui/homepage_map.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

46 with rain at SLE. Was only 39 at 11am when I headed to Portland this morning.

[TT-SEA]

46 with rain at SLE. Was only 39 at 11am when I headed to Portland this morning.

 

Partly cloudy and 53 here.     

 

Radar does not show anything developing up here yet.  

[Phil]

Phil... this is perfectly normal here for mid March. Everything is right on track for our climate. The University of Washington update this week said the cherry blossoms there (different variety and older trees) will peak this coming week which is exactly normal.

 

The cherry blossoms were out a month earlier in 2015 and 2016. And the grass is always lush green here in March... always.

What cherry blossom species/cultivars do you guys have planted up there, then? Certainly can’t be naturalized Sour Cherry like here, because ours don’t bloom until late in March.

 

The Sun is much stronger here, our cloud cover is much less than yours, and we *usually* see several days reach the mid/upper 70s by mid-March. That usually doesn’t happen in the PNW, as far as I know.

[TT-SEA]

What cherry blossom species/cultivars do you guys have planted up there, then? Certainly can’t be naturalized Sour Cherry like here, because ours don’t bloom until late in March.

 

The Sun is much stronger here, our cloud cover is much less than yours, and we *usually* see several days reach the mid/upper 70s by mid-March. That usually doesn’t happen in the PNW, as far as I know.

Are you arguing about the most distinct aspect of our climate and vegegation at this latitude? This is not debatable. Its just a fact.

 

Not sure about the type of cherry trees. But we discussed this last March when the UW cherry trees were in full bloom. It happens every single year.

[TT-SEA]

And many varieties of trees are budding and blooming now.

 

Just look at the climate zone maps for the US... we are about the same as Georgia. 

Not debatable.