March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I did tell you about the EPS today. See post below... you responded to it.

 

And it was more than transitioning at the end of the run. It goes from cold to warm from day 10 to day 15. Phil is showing a blended 5-day mean which does not represent the big change from day 10 to day 15. It was definitely colder in the 7-10 day period as well.

 

Here is day 15:

 

Uh yeah, as I said above, it doesn’t warm up until the end of week two.

 

The ridgy period won’t begin until the last few days of March, at earliest (IMO). Then it lasts 7-10 days until there’s sufficient AAM pullback/retrogression to rebuild the ridge over the GOA/Aleutians once again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 30 again this morning at Station of the God's South. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 30 here this morning. Some classic 33 degree rain falling now.

[MossMan]

30 frosty degrees currently.

[Jesse]

Down to 30 again this morning at Station of the God's South.

After a high of 49 yesturdday. They just won’t stop winning.

[bainbridgekid]

Not as frosty as yesterday, but my car was still encased in a thin layer of ice this morning.

 

This pattern really is pretty great. Hard to beat 55/30 type days with wall to wall sunshine this time of year.

[bainbridgekid]

I was impressed to see the Skykomish airport cam still covered in snow.

 

For 1,000 feet that area gets snow remarkably often and holds onto it incredibly well.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got down to a surprising 26 degrees here earlier this morning.

 

Kold

[TT-SEA]

I was impressed to see the Skykomish airport cam still covered in snow.

 

For 1,000 feet that area gets snow remarkably often and holds onto it incredibly well.

 

skyse (1).jpg

 

That is incredible.   

 

I am at the same elevation and there not been a hint of snow on the ground for at least 10 days now... and even that was spotty for the week before that time.    Even our ridge is completely bare now. 

[Front Ranger]

So far.

 

I honestly expected it to be better after the very persistent precip in January and February.  I knew it was a good sign for spring.

 

We could still end up with a May like 1962 though.  That was a mess from start to finish.

 

Would you rather have a "nice" late winter/early spring or a "nice" late spring/early summer?

[TT-SEA]

Would you rather have a "nice" late winter/early spring or a "nice" late spring/early summer?

 

 

Much worse for it to be really nice and then go completely backwards for a month or more in April or May or even into June.

 

Seems like a slow ramp up is best.   You get some nice weather in between storms but don't burn the budget     Extended nice weather in March is usually a bad sign for the rest of spring.   I am glad to see the active and cold period next week for just that reason.... and only that reason.

[jcmcgaffey]

Always impressed at how warm SEA is on mornings like these. I have been in the low thirties the last several mornings with frost/ice on the car that I have had to scrape and SEA hasn’t even gotten below the 40s for lows.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cloudy and damp this morning in Salem.

 

Long range GFS is somewhat chilly...I don't think we'll see anything earth shattering this month, but I think we are on track for a cooler spring than some of the past few.

[Front Ranger]

Much worse for it to be really nice and then go completely backwards for a month or more in April or May or even into June.

 

Seems like a slow ramp up is best.   You get some nice weather in between storms but don't burn the budget     Extended nice weather in March is usually a bad sign for the rest of spring.   I am glad to see the active and cold period next week for just that reason.... and only that reason.

 

I haven't done the research, but it would be interesting to see if this idea is backed up by data.

[TT-SEA]

I haven't done the research, but it would be interesting to see if this idea is backed up by data.

 

I have not quantified it either.

 

But I have gone through daily records since 1895 so many times that I generally know how things evolve around here.    Too much nice weather too soon and it seems like we pay for it later in the spring and early summer.   There are exceptions to everything of course.

[Jesse]

Nasty warm front wipes out our trough on days 9-10 of the Euro. Hopefully this one is an outlier.

[TT-SEA]

Nasty warm front wipes out our trough on days 9-10 of the Euro. Hopefully this one is an outlier.

Probably going to be warm and wet in the transition to ridging.

[Jesse]

Probably going to be warm and wet in the transition to ridging.

Based on this one run? Ok.

[TT-SEA]

Based on this one run? Ok.

No... based on history.

[Phil]

D9-14 EPS looks Jesse-tastic.

 

(Yes Tim, it warms up by D13).

 

[Jesse]

No... based on history.

Ah, the old fallback. There are many cold March troughs that have transitioned straight to northerly flow, and there are many that have resulted in a warm frontal slog. Pretty mixed bag.

[TT-SEA]

D9-14 EPS looks Jesse-tastic.

 

Best not to blend. There is a distinct transition in that period from cold to warm.

[TT-SEA]

Ah, the old fallback. There are many cold March troughs that have transitioned straight to northerly flow, and there are many that have resulted in a warm frontal slog. Pretty mixed bag.

Probably right... I just assume the worst.

[Phil]

New Euro weeklies depict the upcoming ridgy episode very clearly now, and also the subsequent retrograde and return to troughing/-PNA.

 

April 1st..big ridge:

 

 

 

One week later, the retrograde is already occurring:

 

 

 

By mid-April, it’s a clear Niña pattern, though ensemble spread is becoming very large at this point:

 

[seattleweatherguy]

That trough will bring cooler than normal temps. Maybe snow in April too?

[TT-SEA]

That trough will bring cooler than normal temps. Maybe snow in April too?

 

 

The trough on the ECMWF weeklies in April looks fairly zonal... could actually be warmer than normal and rainy.

[seattleweatherguy]

Dies the ecwf still show snow for that period in this mornings runs?

[TT-SEA]

Dies the ecwf still show snow for that period in this mornings runs?

 

Indeed... just checked and its even more than 00Z run.

 

[Deweydog]

Indeed... just checked and its even more than 00Z run.

 

Oh Tim...

 

Please just stop.

[TT-SEA]

Oh Tim...

 

Please just stop.

Sorry. My bad.

[Jesse]

Tim, for what it’s worth, the 12z EPS seems to hint at a drier transition out of the trough. We would probably both like that.

 

Hope I am not making things too personal mentioning you by name here.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, for what it’s worth, the 12z EPS seems to hint at a drier transition out of the trough. We would probably both like that.

 

Hope I am not making things too personal mentioning you by name here.

No... but you did before.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is colder again with the trough in the 7-9 day period. Looks very impressive. Also turns even warmer after day 10. Roller coaster!

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day... sunny and 55 with no wind at all. March perfection under a deep trough.

[Geos]

Indeed... just checked and its even more than 00Z run.

 

 

That's pretty snowy for the third week in March!

 

Great day today. 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 57 at SEA.

 

I see its also 51 at Whistler.

[Jesse]

PDX wildly overachieving again.

[Jesse]

I guess it’s not possible to have a single solidly cool day with this pattern.

[TT-SEA]

I guess it’s not possible to have a single solidly cool day with this pattern.

I love ULL patterns. Looks like a deep trough in the models but the details are so much better. Even better up here usually.

[ShawniganLake]

Up to 57 at SEA.

 

I see its also 51 at Whistler.

Only 23F at the top. Quite a spread on your way up the mountain.